Parise for Pouliot, Jacques

[oil slick]

There are many flaws in that theory.

1. First if a player is scoring the majority of his points on the powerplay.....This formula is scewed.

Because NO +/- is awarded.

Noone ever said he wasn't good offensively. The number of goals he scores on the pp is irrelevant when talking about his defensive ability. Jagr scores a lot of points on the pp... he's not great defensively.

Then how do you factor in Parise has 2 shorthanded goals???????? He stinks defensively according to Oiler fans, yet he is killing penalties and being sheltered by the coach???

Much better argument, and I now think he is better defensively than I did 5 minutes ago. However I still think that the fact he is being sheltered 5 on 5 does show that he is not yet the next John Madden.

 

[hfboardsuser]

Then how do you factor in Parise has 2 shorthanded goals???????? He stinks defensively according to Oiler fans, yet he is killing penalties and being sheltered by the coach???

You can be sheltered on the PK. Why not?

The facts don't show this.

So two shorthanded goals somehow cancels out a poor +/- during sheltered minutes? If my facts don't support you, they don't count?

 

[JimEIV]

You can be sheltered on the PK. Why not?

So two shorthanded goals somehow cancels out a poor +/- during sheltered minutes? If my facts don't support you, they don't count?

Your missing the point.......From the conversations above the formula is to look at the plus/minus and the players on the ice at the time to judge how difficult the opponent is. That formula is skewed.

35% of Parise goals come by special teams either short-handed or Powerplay. On special teams you must assume that Parise is either up against the "better" offensive players on the Penalty Kill and against the "better" defensive players on the Powerplay.


I don't have Parise's speacial team assists total, but it is obviously a significant portion of his total offense........The formula mentioned above throws potentially 50% of his offence out the window! It doesn't make sense

 

[JimEIV]

You can be sheltered on the PK. Why not?

How can you be sheltered when you are killing penalties??? You're on the second unit?? Your still facing the other teams top 6 forwards.

 

[JimEIV]

Much better argument, and I now think he is better defensively than I did 5 minutes ago. However I still think that the fact he is being sheltered 5 on 5 does show that he is not yet the next John Madden.

How can you be trusted to be on the PK and be sheltered.........You've got to admit that sounds awfully silly to the casual observer

 

[oil slick]

How can you be trusted to be on the PK and be sheltered.........You've got to admit that sounds awfully silly to the casual observer

I said I agree with you, that was a good point.

edit:I still don't see why you maintain those 5 on 5 numbers don't show you anything though.

 

[Asiaoil]

What Mr. Bugg and oil slick are trying to say is simple - the most valuable players are 5 on 5 out-scorers - especially guys who can score more than they get scored on when matched up against the opposition's top line. Not every minute played in a hockey game is the same. Tell me who is more valuable - Player 1 who is a positive ES +/- while matching up against Forsburg all night or Player 2 who is a negative ES +/- while matching up against the Colorado 4th line and getting PP minutes? The answer is pretty obvious even though Player 2 may have more points.

Matchups against weak opposition (4th liners) are butter soft minutes that pad your stats compared to guys the coach trusts to go up againt the opposition's top line

Powerplays are butter soft minutes that pad your offensive stats.

Playing with the best wingers on any team will help compared to guys who can play with weaker wingers and can still produce positive results.

So centers who have good numbers as 5 on 5 players against top opposition and mediocre wingers are gold - their names are Sackic, Forsburg etc. Parise is not in that category - even against AHL players. He is being given tons of PP time, match-ups against weaker opposition, and good line-mates - in effect he is being sheltered and brought along very carefully which is fine. Still in spite of all of these advantages he is a negative ES player and this is not good - it's something he's going to have to work on. Based on the situational stats - other players on the Rats are taking the tough minutes, the weaker wingers, and not getting the PP time. Surprise surprise their offensive stats are less impressive - but you have to take that with a grain of salt. Same goes for Parise's offensive numbers - taken in context they are less important to the overall team's success.

In Edmonton we had a year long debate about Shawn Horcoff - most of the board thought he was mediocre at best but guys like igor finally nailed it into our heads that he was playing the tough minutes against the Forsburgs and Sakic of the league AND coming out ahead. It seemed totally counter-intuative that a nobody like Horcoff could be matched up against $10 miilion players and come out on top on a regular basis - but that's what was happening. Same thing happened when we put Todd Marchant on our top line 2 years ago because of injuries and started force feeding him PP time and easier matchups. Suddenly he's a 60 point player but it's not like he developed talent overnight or this actually helped the Oilers win more. It did however get Todd a nice fat contract that Columbus got sucked into based on inflated offensive stats.

Jump on the bus in looking at the TOI and situational stats - it really is interesting and you can find out just how much your opinion of a player can color the way you see things on the ice. I agree that just looking at points totals and simple +/- numbers can be misleading - that's why the situational numbers are important. These numbers give you the context within which you can evaluate a players performance and tell you who is doing things that actually help you win (out-scoring) as opposed to simply putting up big individual numbers.

I'll say it again - that Murphy kid in Albany is a guy to watch. Probably never be a great offensive threat but he looks to have the makings of a serious out-scorer nd he's doing it in a tough situation which is even more impressive.

 

[Cerebral]

What Mr. Bugg and oil slick are trying to say is simple - the most valuable players are 5 on 5 out-scorers - especially guys who can score more than they get scored on when matched up against the opposition's top line. Not every minute played in a hockey game is the same. Tell me who is more valuable - Player 1 who is a positive ES +/- while matching up against Forsburg all night or Player 2 who is a negative ES +/- while matching up against the Colorado 4th line and getting PP minutes? The answer is pretty obvious even though Player 2 may have more points.

Matchups against weak opposition (4th liners) are butter soft minutes that pad your stats compared to guys the coach trusts to go up againt the opposition's top line

Powerplays are butter soft minutes that pad your offensive stats.

Playing with the best wingers on any team will help compared to guys who can play with weaker wingers and can still produce positive results.

So centers who have good numbers as 5 on 5 players against top opposition and mediocre wingers are gold - their names are Sackic, Forsburg etc. Parise is not in that category - even against AHL players. He is being given tons of PP time, match-ups against weaker opposition, and good line-mates - in effect he is being sheltered and brought along very carefully which is fine. Still in spite of all of these advantages he is a negative ES player and this is not good - it's something he's going to have to work on. Based on the situational stats - other players on the Rats are taking the tough minutes, the weaker wingers, and not getting the PP time. Surprise surprise their offensive stats are less impressive - but you have to take that with a grain of salt. Same goes for Parise's offensive numbers - taken in context they are less important to the overall team's success.

In Edmonton we had a year long debate about Shawn Horcoff - most of the board thought he was mediocre at best but guys like igor finally nailed it into our heads that he was playing the tough minutes against the Forsburgs and Sakic of the league AND coming out ahead. It seemed totally counter-intuative that a nobody like Horcoff could be matched up against $10 miilion players and come out on top on a regular basis - but that's what was happening. Same thing happened when we put Todd Marchant on the top line 2 years ago becuase of injuries and started force feeding him PP time and easier matchups. Suddenly he's a 60 point player but it's not like he suddenly developed talent or this actually helped the Oilers win.

Jump on the bus in looking at the TOI and situational stats - it really is interesting and you can find out just how much your opinion of a player can color the way you see things on the ice. I agree that just looking at points totals and simple +/- numbers can be misleading - that's why the situational numbers are important. These numbers give you the context within which the you can evaluate a players performance and tell you who is doing things that actually help you win (out-scoring) as opposed to simply putting up big individual numbers.

I'll say it again - that Murphy kid in Albany is a guy to watch. Probably never be a great offensive threat but he looks to have the makings of a serious out-scorer.

Thank you for finally clearing up what a number of people were trying to say...

 

[oil slick]

Thank you for finally clearing up what a number of people were trying to say...

Yeah - that was a fairly humbling post Asiaoil. I knew what I was trying to say... I just couldn't say it.

 

[Asiaoil]

Hey man - thank igor and others - I am but a humble novice

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I said I was gone - I lied

Yes it's everyone else's fault - Zach's farts don't smell and he craps gold. Igor and the rest of the Oiler stats gurus blew you out of the water on a similar thread on the Oilers board and you just won't quit with this Parise is a defensive wall stuff. You have offered NO EVIDENCE to support your POV other than your own opinion - while other people have - plenty as a matter of fact. If you were a defense attorney your client would be breaking rocks along the side of the road wearing funny striped clothes.

Gotta give you credit for blind persistance though - this Parise as shut-down center thing is religeon for you

You offered nothing other then his +- stats are poor so the only thing you blew out of the water may be your whistle.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Unless I'm violating the Charter or a law, I sure as heck do have the right to say that. I expected a bit more of a grown-up response. The proof I'm asking for shouldn't be all that hard to find if he's as important defensively as you claim.



EV +/- is perhaps the most accurate indication of defensive ability out there. Check out igor's stuff if you're not a believer.

It is not, that would mean Naslund and Bure in his day were defensive superstars. You won't get a grown up responce because I am sick of trying to argue these points like adults, all you seem to do is cover your ears and eyes then rely on stats. WATCH HIM PLAY.

 

[Cerebral]

You offered nothing other then his +- stats are poor so the only thing you blew out of the water may be your whistle.

Actually, they both mentioned three statistical references: Quality of linemates, quality of the opposition and EV +/- in reference to that (see Igor's thread: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=135639&highlight=parise He didn't break down his numbers but I'm sure he has them if you are curious). Those three measures combined are a very effective way of measuring a player's impact on the game. You and a number of inviduals keep claiming that they are just throwing up some random "Parise is -7, therefore he is a bad defensive player" jargon when they are in fact presenting a valid and sound argument.

I stick by my opinion: Parise will be a very good second line centerman in the NHL. He will be a good defender like Mike York but he'll struggle with taller and stronger power centers and thus need to be somewhat sheltered.

 

[Cerebral]

It is not, that would mean Naslund and Bure in his day were defensive superstars.

It makes sense if you look at who Bure was playing against and who his linemates were. Likewise, I'd guess that Bure's EV +/- isn't very impressive as a lot of his points came on the powerplay...

 

[cj]

It is not, that would mean Naslund and Bure in his day were defensive superstars. You won't get a grown up responce because I am sick of trying to argue these points like adults, all you seem to do is cover your ears and eyes then rely on stats. WATCH HIM PLAY.

I'm not going to argue the Parise thing, but I just thought I'd point out that Bure is only +42 over his entire career, Naslund is +40. Both have generally flip flopped between being minus and plus players throughout their careers. Not exactly "defensive superstar" numbers. Compare this to Sergei Fedorov who has two Selke trophies to his credit and is generally considered to be one of the best all-round players in the game. He is a +271 and last season was the first time he was a minus player.

Anyways, on with your argument...

 

[Asiaoil]

Actually, they both mentioned three statistical references: Quality of linemates, quality of the opposition and EV +/- in reference to that (see Igor's thread: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=135639&highlight=parise He didn't break down his numbers but I'm sure he has them if you are curious). Those three measures combined are a very effective way of measuring a player's impact on the game. You and a number of inviduals keep claiming that they are just throwing up some random "Parise is -7, therefore he is a bad defensive player" jargon when they are in fact presenting a valid and sound argument.

I stick by my opinion: Parise will be a very good second line centerman in the NHL. He will be a good defender like Mike York but he'll struggle with taller and stronger power centers and thus need to be somewhat sheltered.

Yup - pretty much agree with all of that

 

[Cerebral]

I'm not going to argue the Parise thing, but I just thought I'd point out that Bure is only +42 over his entire career, Naslund is +40. Both have generally flip flopped between being minus and plus players throughout their careers. Not exactly "defensive superstar" numbers. Compare this to Sergei Fedorov who has two Selke trophies to his credit and is generally considered to be one of the best all-round players in the game. He is a +271 and last season was the first time he was a minus player.

Anyways, on with your argument...

I'd hate to see what their EV +/-'s are... I'm guessing in the negative.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

As was said, no, because many of their points came on special teams. You've also got to consider quality of opposition/linemates.



Waaaa. I'm not making you respond- it's your choice to continue these "debates" (I shame the word). You can stop participating at any point. Feel free to do so. You're simply angry because you can't disprove cold, hard numbers with any of your own.

He's not angry. He's merely frustrated by the fact that you and few of your cronies can't see beyond the "cold, hard numbers." Have you ever seen Zach Parise play?

 

[Asiaoil]

He's not angry. He's merely frustrated by the fact that you and few of your cronies can't see beyond the "cold, hard numbers." Have you ever seen Zach Parise play?

Yes and it does not change my opinion about Parise one bit. Have you ever taken the time to analyze Parise's numbers? The answer is obviously no or there would not be much of a discussion here. Basically what we have here is an argument between:

1. people who supplement their opinion of a player (based on actually watching him) with some objective analysis

and

2. folks who are just spouting personal opinions

Number 2 and a dollar will get you a bad cup of coffee - while Number 1 may lead you to a few interesting insights. Like I said earlier - the situational ES +/-numbers on Shawn Horcoff just floored everyone on the Oilers board last year and completely contradicted what almost everyone thought based on just watching the games - and this was with a player that people watched almost every game for several years.

Allow yourself the opportunity to be surprised or even be proven wrong occasionally and you may actually learn something

 

[Cerebral]

Number 2 and a dollar will get you a bad cup of coffee - while Number 1 may lead you to a few interesting insights. Like I said earlier - the situational ES +/-numbers on Shawn Horcoff just floored everyone on the Oilers board last year and completely contradicted what almost everyone thought based on just watching the games - and this was with a player that people watched almost every game for several years.

Allow yourself the opportunity to be surprised or even be proven wrong occasionally and you may actually learn something

I personally wasn't surprised, I've always liked Horcoff as a player... However, I've always been an "old school" type of hockey watcher and I've just recently started looking at statistics as well. I still don't think that statistics can ever tell you everything about a player but they can certainly provide some useful insights...

 

[paxtang]

Maybe this is explained in this thread, or in another thread, but how do we know that Parise is playing against weak players 5 on 5. As a Phantom's fans, it seems ilke Parise is out there against scoring lines a lot, and is a pretty damn good player. I'd be more worried about his finishing ability if I was a Devils fan, since they already have a premier play maker who can't buy a goal in Gomez.

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

Yes and it does not change my opinion about Parise one bit. Have you ever taken the time to analyze Parise's numbers? The answer is obviously no or there would not be much of a discussion here. Basically what we have here is an argument between:

1. people who supplement their opinion of a player (based on actually watching him) with some objective analysis

and

2. folks who are just spouting personal opinions

Funny. I was under the impression it was between:

People:

1. people who supplement their opinion of a player (based on actually watching him) with some objective analysis

and

2. folks who are just spouting stats like they actually know what they are talking about

 

[Lou is God]

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=135639&highlight=parise

This is it?? This is what you guys have been crowing about all day? I was expecting somekind of super formula that only a M.I.T student could crack, any of you guys could have wrote this and been just as wrong.

 

[hfboardsuser]

Maybe this is explained in this thread, or in another thread, but how do we know that Parise is playing against weak players 5 on 5

The much-revered Igor wrote a script that parses AHL play-by-play information. This includes who was on the ice when either team scored, and in general who was on the ice against whom.

Funny. I was under the impression it was between:

1. people who supplement their opinion of a player (based on actually watching him) with some objective analysis

Objective analysis? The strongest claims in this camp are coming from Devils fans.

2. folks who are just spouting stats like they actually know what they are talking about

Prove us wrong, without resorting to "objective" anecdotes. Otherwise you're just trolling.

This is it?? This is what you guys have been crowing about all day? I was expecting somekind of super formula that only a M.I.T student could crack, any of you guys could have wrote this and been just as wrong.

Igor would be quite happy to supply the numbers, I'm sure.

 

[Lou is God]

Igor would be quite happy to supply the numbers, I'm sure.

Sure, I'll take a look at them.