Parise for Pouliot, Jacques

[Lou is God]

Objective analysis? The strongest claims in this camp are coming from Devils fans.

Rapid Ranger, when did you become a Devils fan?? Welcome aboard!

By the way, there are more Oiler fans taking part in this debate than Devils fans and Vlad is not a Devils fan either.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Rapid Ranger, when did you become a Devils fan?? Welcome aboard!

By the way, there are more Oiler fans taking part in this debate than Devils fans and Vlad is not a Devils fan either.

Truth be told, I'm a fan of USA Hockey over any NHL team. I was/am a big Ranger fan (Brian Leetch is my all-time favorite player), but will throw my support behind any American player (except Jeff Likens), including Parise.

 

[paxtang]

The much-revered Igor wrote a script that parses AHL play-by-play information. This includes who was on the ice when either team scored, and in general who was on the ice against whom.

So he's got shift by shift numbers, or just who was on the ice for goals scored? I'm just curious.

Also, does he explain the defensive pairins on the ice or just wingers, as to my understanding Albany's problems have been with their D core. I don't really follow the Rats too much, so I'm curious to hear what he had to say.

 

[hfboardsuser]

By "Devil's fans" I mean Jason MacIsaac and Lou is God. They're both heavily relying on anecdotal evidnece to support their claims. I don't see m(any) Oiler fans saying "I saw Parise, he sucks defensively". Thus, Devils fans are strongly using anecdotal evidence, are they not?

 

[hfboardsuser]

So he's got shift by shift numbers, or just who was on the ice for goals scored? I'm just curious.

I'm sure it's both.

Also, does he explain the defensive pairins on the ice or just wingers, as to my understanding Albany's problems have been with their D core. I don't really follow the Rats too much, so I'm curious to hear what he had to say.

It lists every skater.

 

[dawgbone]

http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=135639&highlight=parise

This is it?? This is what you guys have been crowing about all day? I was expecting somekind of super formula that only a M.I.T student could crack, any of you guys could have wrote this and been just as wrong.

I suggest you go and take a look at some of Igor's threads... then come bak and comment on who is wrong.

Obviously the idea of hockey is to score more goals than the other team? That's basically what it boils down to.

Ideally, you want your best players to out-score the oppositions best players, your mid-range players to out-score their mid-range players, and your plugs to out-score their plugs. That's pretty much a guaranteed win. Sometimes you can't match your best against their best (because maybe your best aren't good enough), so you might throw a checking line out against the oppositions top line. You hope that by not playing your best against their best, your best players will outscore their checking line by more than their best players will outscore your checking line.

That's essentially hockey matchups in a nutshell.

When focusing on "tough minutes", you are talking about facing the players on the other team who can outscore the best players on other teams. We are talking guys like Forsberg, Palffy (when healthy), etc... When the focus is on "soft minutes", it's focusing on playing against the oppositions weaker outscorers.

Obviously analyzing +/- alone isn't a good indicator of anything. However, when you apply it in context, it's a much more revealing stat. I mean, there has been comparisons of Parise's +/- numbers to other guys on his team. The defense being that it's not bad, compared to some of the other players. Now, the question becomes, who is he playing with, and who is he playing against. If he's playing with good players, and agaisnt weak opposition, his +/- numbers aren't as flattering as say a guy at -13 who plays with weak players against tougher opposition. Obvious rule of thumb is that the better your linemates are, and the weaker the opposition, the better your +/- should be.

No one can possibly look at just Parise's +/- and his teammates +/- and determine how good a player (or outscorer) he is... anyone trying to do that has no clue about what hockey is.

However, if you can look at the context of Parise's +/- numbers as well as his teammates numbers (i.e. the quality of their linemates, and the quality of their opposition), that is a far better indicator of how he is as a hockey player. No one can deny his offensive numbers... they were solid. And he's only 20, so he's got lots of time to develop. But as of right now, he isn't a shutdown centre... not at the AHL level. It's time to take off the rose-coloured glasses and realize that we aren't the hockey evaluators we think we are by watching a game live, or on TV. When we watch, we tend to fall in love with the things we like, while ignoring the things we don't like (and in some cases the absolute opposite occurs... we don't like how the player looks on the ice so we ignore everything positive about him). Humans are too easily fooled by visuals.

 

[dawgbone]

I'm sure it's both.

For the AHL, I only think he has event numbers (goals). I know for the NHL he can get a lot more info (like shots and that), only because the NHL publishes alot more info on their electronic gamesheets.

Not 100% sure, but ask him.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

By "Devil's fans" I mean Jason MacIsaac and Lou is God. They're both heavily relying on anecdotal evidnece to support their claims. I don't see m(any) Oiler fans saying "I saw Parise, he sucks defensively". Thus, Devils fans are strongly using anecdotal evidence, are they not?

Actually, I see Devil fans that actually get to see Parise play (you know, in person) going head-to-head against Oiler fans who are relying on a statistical analysis to do the same. I'm not saying the Devil fans in this thread are 100% objective, but IMO, I'd rather go by the opinion of someone who gets to SEE a player on a regular basis and is in touch with the team he plays on/drafted him than a fan of another team who has a questionable agenda and is relying on a formula, that while neat to look and ponder, is hardly a universally accepted barometer for evaluating prospects.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I suggest you go and take a look at some of Igor's threads... then come bak and comment on who is wrong.

Obviously the idea of hockey is to score more goals than the other team? That's basically what it boils down to.

Ideally, you want your best players to out-score the oppositions best players, your mid-range players to out-score their mid-range players, and your plugs to out-score their plugs. That's pretty much a guaranteed win. Sometimes you can't match your best against their best (because maybe your best aren't good enough), so you might throw a checking line out against the oppositions top line. You hope that by not playing your best against their best, your best players will outscore their checking line by more than their best players will outscore your checking line.

That's essentially hockey matchups in a nutshell.

When focusing on "tough minutes", you are talking about facing the players on the other team who can outscore the best players on other teams. We are talking guys like Forsberg, Palffy (when healthy), etc... When the focus is on "soft minutes", it's focusing on playing against the oppositions weaker outscorers.

Obviously analyzing +/- alone isn't a good indicator of anything. However, when you apply it in context, it's a much more revealing stat. I mean, there has been comparisons of Parise's +/- numbers to other guys on his team. The defense being that it's not bad, compared to some of the other players. Now, the question becomes, who is he playing with, and who is he playing against. If he's playing with good players, and agaisnt weak opposition, his +/- numbers aren't as flattering as say a guy at -13 who plays with weak players against tougher opposition. Obvious rule of thumb is that the better your linemates are, and the weaker the opposition, the better your +/- should be.

No one can possibly look at just Parise's +/- and his teammates +/- and determine how good a player (or outscorer) he is... anyone trying to do that has no clue about what hockey is.

However, if you can look at the context of Parise's +/- numbers as well as his teammates numbers (i.e. the quality of their linemates, and the quality of their opposition), that is a far better indicator of how he is as a hockey player. No one can deny his offensive numbers... they were solid. And he's only 20, so he's got lots of time to develop. But as of right now, he isn't a shutdown centre... not at the AHL level. It's time to take off the rose-coloured glasses and realize that we aren't the hockey evaluators we think we are by watching a game live, or on TV. When we watch, we tend to fall in love with the things we like, while ignoring the things we don't like (and in some cases the absolute opposite occurs... we don't like how the player looks on the ice so we ignore everything positive about him). Humans are too easily fooled by visuals.

Nice post, but who is saying that Parise is supposed to be a "shut-down center"? The whole reason this issue is being debated is because someone took exception to the statement that Parise is POOR defensively, when that isn't the case. No one is saying he is an ace in that regard.

 

[Lou is God]

Also, does he explain the defensive pairins on the ice or just wingers, as to my understanding Albany's problems have been with their D core. I don't really follow the Rats too much, so I'm curious to hear what he had to say.

Big time, we lost David Hale at the beginning of the season to injuries and besides him most of the defense is made up of career minor leaguers and not very good ones either.

 

[hfboardsuser]

Actually, I see Devil fans that actually get to see Parise play (you know, in person) going head-to-head against Oiler fans who are relying on a statistical analysis to do the same. I'm not saying the Devil fans in this thread are 100% objective, but IMO, I'd rather go by the opinion of someone who gets to SEE a player on a regular basis and is in touch with the team he plays on/drafted him

So you'd rather go by the biased opinion of a fan than by numbers that, while posted by a fan of an opposing team, are entirely unbiased? My homerism isn't so great that I can manipulate the fabric of space and time to change Parise's statistics.

than a fan of another team who has a questionable agenda

And Devils fans don't have a questionable agenda?

and is relying on a formula, that while neat to look and ponder, is hardly a universally accepted barometer for evaluating prospects.

Okay, what is so skewed about it? Please please please back yourself up instead of going on about how it's not accurate. Can you disprove it using a little something called evidence?

 

[Lou is God]

I suggest you go and take a look at some of Igor's threads... then come bak and comment on who is wrong.

Obviously the idea of hockey is to score more goals than the other team? That's basically what it boils down to.

Ideally, you want your best players to out-score the oppositions best players, your mid-range players to out-score their mid-range players, and your plugs to out-score their plugs. That's pretty much a guaranteed win. Sometimes you can't match your best against their best (because maybe your best aren't good enough), so you might throw a checking line out against the oppositions top line. You hope that by not playing your best against their best, your best players will outscore their checking line by more than their best players will outscore your checking line.

That's essentially hockey matchups in a nutshell.

When focusing on "tough minutes", you are talking about facing the players on the other team who can outscore the best players on other teams. We are talking guys like Forsberg, Palffy (when healthy), etc... When the focus is on "soft minutes", it's focusing on playing against the oppositions weaker outscorers.

Obviously analyzing +/- alone isn't a good indicator of anything. However, when you apply it in context, it's a much more revealing stat. I mean, there has been comparisons of Parise's +/- numbers to other guys on his team. The defense being that it's not bad, compared to some of the other players. Now, the question becomes, who is he playing with, and who is he playing against. If he's playing with good players, and agaisnt weak opposition, his +/- numbers aren't as flattering as say a guy at -13 who plays with weak players against tougher opposition. Obvious rule of thumb is that the better your linemates are, and the weaker the opposition, the better your +/- should be.

No one can possibly look at just Parise's +/- and his teammates +/- and determine how good a player (or outscorer) he is... anyone trying to do that has no clue about what hockey is.

However, if you can look at the context of Parise's +/- numbers as well as his teammates numbers (i.e. the quality of their linemates, and the quality of their opposition), that is a far better indicator of how he is as a hockey player. No one can deny his offensive numbers... they were solid. And he's only 20, so he's got lots of time to develop. But as of right now, he isn't a shutdown centre... not at the AHL level. It's time to take off the rose-coloured glasses and realize that we aren't the hockey evaluators we think we are by watching a game live, or on TV. When we watch, we tend to fall in love with the things we like, while ignoring the things we don't like (and in some cases the absolute opposite occurs... we don't like how the player looks on the ice so we ignore everything positive about him). Humans are too easily fooled by visuals.

Which part of this post did you not understand?

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=2720724&postcount=175

 

[Rabid Ranger]

So you'd rather go by the biased opinion of a fan than by numbers that, while posted by a fan of an opposing team, are entirely unbiased? My homerism isn't so great that I can manipulate the fabric of space and time to change Parise's statistics.



And Devils fans don't have a questionable agenda?



Okay, what is so skewed about it? Please please please back yourself up instead of going on about how it's not accurate. Can you disprove it using a little something called evidence?

What kind of agenda have Devil fans demonstrated in this thread? I see some posters taking issue with an evaluation system that doesn't tell the whole story. Zach Parise is NOT, by design or inference a "shut down center." That isn't his job and never will be. He is an offensivily minded playmaker that is paid to put up points on the scoresheet. Does that mean he is a defensive liablity? No, despite having a -7 on a poor Albany team, he is concientious about backchecking and the like. You know how I know this? I have seen him play! That is what matters here.

 

[dawgbone]

Which part of this post did you not understand?

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=2720724&postcount=175

Well considering when I originally started this post, it was about 8:30, and that post wasn't up.

Unfortunately, I got caught up in something and had to leave my half-finished posting for about half an hour. I then came back and finished it.

 

[Lou is God]

And Devils fans don't have a questionable agenda?

Man, you are really seeing this one way, aren't you? Sure we got a agenda, we are passionate hockey fans who are protecting one of are favorite prospects as you would for yours. But your agenda is different, much different but not worse by any means. Your team took some heat for trading down and letting Parise slip out of your hands and now your are trying desperately to justify it by suggesting their merit in your teams choice to avoid selecting him because his +/- is not as high as one would hope. Your backing your horse that's all, it's a natural thing we all do it and what makes us hockey fans is the passion for the sport.

 

[Lou is God]

Well considering when I originally started this post, it was about 8:30, and that post wasn't up.

Unfortunately, I got caught up in something and had to leave my half-finished posting for about half an hour. I then came back and finished it.

Sorry, next time I won't let life interupt such an important posting... you know, so you won't feel the need to be a jackass.

Sorry man, saw an opportunity to be cute and took it, no hard feelings.

 

[dawgbone]

Nice post, but who is saying that Parise is supposed to be a "shut-down center"? The whole reason this issue is being debated is because someone took exception to the statement that Parise is POOR defensively, when that isn't the case. No one is saying he is an ace in that regard.

Jason MacIsaac

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=2634622&postcount=33

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=2636054&postcount=44

There he claimed Parise was the shutdown centre for the Rats. While he may not be poor defensively, he certainly isn't good defensively... average defensively may be a better moniker for him.

 

[dawgbone]

Sorry man, saw an opportunity to be cute and took it, no hard feelings.

Smilies man... smilies....!!!

edited... all good now.

 

[Lou is God]

Smilies man... smilies....!!!

edited... all good now.

I am still intersted to see igrr's numbers, not that'll change my opinion at all, I just find it hard to believe that his numbers define this kid defensively in his first pro year were his defenseman have been for the most part crap until Hale got healthy (hence the Rats current hot streak). Numbers can be very deceiving, that is more fact than opinion. (Sorry man, I just can't make them smile!)

 

[Asiaoil]

Man, you are really seeing this one way, aren't you? Sure we got a agenda, we are passionate hockey fans who are protecting one of are favorite prospects as you would for yours. But your agenda is different, much different but not worse by any means. Your team took some heat for trading down and letting Parise slip out of your hands and now your are trying desperately to justify it by suggesting their merit in your teams choice to avoid selecting him because his +/- is not as high as one would hope. Your backing your horse that's all, it's a natural thing we all do it and what makes us hockey fans is the passion for the sport.

Say what??????

All the Oilers fans (me included) have said they like Parise and compare him to one of our favorite players - Mike York. For the 100th time - the Oilers made the trade because we already have a similar player on our roster and we need more size. Plus we had Comrie then so the situation was even more acute. The only thing any of us have taken exception to (and these people are not all Oiler fans) is the total "rose colored glasses" hyping of Parise by people calling him a combination of Cris Draper (shut down center) and Joe Sakic (elite scoring first line center). Both of those things are simply not true and are easily proven using objective measures of his performance on the ice.

Some of us are more interested in prospect development and how to analyze that - and the Parise hype has given us a nice case to try explain our way of doing this. If your're not interested in that and just want to be a passionate fan - so be it and good luck to ya.

 

[paxtang]

I don't think it's hard to sepearte a fan like Jason and other Devil's fans. I mean, Ahonen IS > than Niittymaki.

From my little experience with Parise this year agains the Phantoms, he's good defensivly. But I also see the argument that his size will be a hinderance in the defensive zone, just like the rest of the Devil's size was a problem against a the Flyers last year in the playoffs. Too many players on the smaller side is a problem, and I think the Devil's need to look at that. I like Parise a lot; I don't like Parise on the Devils.

But I also think that Parise's play this year has been better than the statistal studies done by Oiler's fans. For one thing, the AHL is a different league this year than other years. Not only are there better players, but there is a continuity with a lot of teams and their line ups that hasn't been there. I don't think you can compare stat projections from previous years and this year. I also think that while Parise coudl have had a better season and a lot of the blame for that is on himself, I don't think you can look past his teammates. I don't hvae the statistcal studies, I just have anecdotal evidence which really isn't evidence, but it seemed to me that a lot of Parise's goals against were scored while he played with Suglabov, who sucks on defense. Most of the Rats' problems have been with an inept defense, an eratic Ahonen, and young forwards not used to the NA game. The players that have been a success on both ends of the ice have been the vets they have on the team like McAmmand and Rheaume.

I think that if Parise had been on a better team, he probably would have been aroudn 70 poinds and he would have been a plus player. I think he's a good playmaker that should be a second liner. I think he isn't a great finisher. I think his size won't stop him from being a good NHLer, but it will force NJ to find some sort of physical force to counter act his, Gomez and Madden's size. I think he's good defensivly. I think he has some intangibles that have made previous players on NJ champions. But he isn't a shutdown guy, and he isn't a first liner. Which is what pretty much most NJ fans say about him.

 

[Cerebral]

I think that if Parise had been on a better team, he probably would have been aroudn 70 poinds and he would have been a plus player. I think he's a good playmaker that should be a second liner. I think he isn't a great finisher. I think his size won't stop him from being a good NHLer, but it will force NJ to find some sort of physical force to counter act his, Gomez and Madden's size. I think he's good defensivly. I think he has some intangibles that have made previous players on NJ champions. But he isn't a shutdown guy, and he isn't a first liner. Which is what pretty much most NJ fans say about him.

That is exactly how I feel. Parise is going to be a great second line centerman in the league and the intangible abilities that he provides make him an even more valuable asset. I'd welcome him on the Oilers but I'm hoping that Pouliot can provide a little more size up the middle...

 

[Eb0la11]

Why is everyone in love with Parise? Hes a shrimp.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I think this is a deal both teams can be relatively happy with.

Parise plays a game which fits very well into the Devils system. Frankly, I see more offensive potential in MAP than I do in Parise, but Parise brings a lot more to the table than just offence. JFJ is going to be a solid pro, probably a 2-3 line tweener, but he's physical and he gets the job done.

Basically I think it's a matter of if you prefer to have a high end 2nd liner or an average second liner and a third liner. That's how I see it breaking down.

In regards to the poster talking about Yzmernan, Sakic, etc being smaller. Most of their careers were in a different hockey era where size was not a critical. Yzerman has seen his production decrease over time, although Sakic has managed to be relatively stable (but is relied on in a more offensive role, perhaps). And, of course, Parise does not have Sakic's offensive skill. Same thing in calling Crosby small. Yes, he is small (right now), but he has a skill set untouched by any other prospect.

I'm an Oiler fan with a differing opinion in this great debate. I've long stated my preference for Parise or Getlaff for that matter as a preferred pick for Edmonton.

I think this quote which I've bolded is the nub of the issue for me. Only I feel Parise is a more sure-thing to become a bonfide NHL second line centreman. My issue with the Oilers is that they are chock full of bottom six talent and need to get better on their top lines to compete.

However, if Pouliot can develop into a second line centre and JFJ plays third or fourth line minutes, then Edmonton wins the trade imo. But for me, Edmonton loses if Pouliot merely tops out as a bottom six centre and JFJ remains bottom six. This second scenario assumes Parise develops into a 50-60 point second line, character centre. The deal looks pretty even at this stage but my eyes will be firmly on monitoring the development of MAP. He is the key in evaluating this deal in two or three years. MAP may be taller than Parise but not necessarily stronger. He will need to get physically stronger to compete against men and remain healthly.

There is much talk about Edmonton need to get bigger as a primary reason for making this deal. The issue for me is this team getting BETTER. The 2003 draft was a deep and (perceived) talented draft. Under the circumstances, we need to come away with our future number two centreman. That for me is why this has been such a hotly contested debate.

 

[Asiaoil]

I'm an Oiler fan with a differing opinion in this great debate. I've long stated my preference for Parise or Getlaff for that matter as a preferred pick for Edmonton.

I was pouting about not drafting Getzlaf at the start of the year when Pouliot was injured again. However, Getzlaf had 54 points in 51 games as a 19 year old - and that is just plain mediocre. Pouliot (who has finally proven he can stay healthy) had 113 points this year versus an uninspired Gezlaf with 54. I'm not complaining anymore. It's not like Getzlaf plays on a crap team or anything either.