Parise for Pouliot, Jacques

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Crosbyfan

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JimEIV said:
On the +/- thing......

You deffinately have to look at it in the context of his team.

The team is a Minus -153 collectively.

There are only 3 regulars(60+ games played) that are above 0; Ryan Murphy, Pascal Rheaume, Bobby Allen.

When you have guys on your team like Voros -9, Clouthier -9, Pikkarainen -Suglobov -13, Pihlman -13, Nittel -14, Janssen -14, Kesa -16 Khomutov -19

The -7 is not that bad.


You can begin to see the -7 when taken in context is not bad at all. I believe Parise is actually 6th or 7th in +/- on the team of players who have played more than 60 games.

Exactly, the second highest scorer (must have played a fair amount of minutes per game) on a somewhat minus team having a -7 is not bad. In fact a "0" would be a positive stat.

Some of the "leaders" in +/- may have had much less icetime.
 

oil slick

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Crosbyfan said:
Exactly, the second highest scorer (must have played a fair amount of minutes per game) on a somewhat minus team having a -7 is not bad. In fact a "0" would be a positive stat.

Some of the "leaders" in +/- may have had much less icetime.


I don't mean to offend any people here, but you all should check out some of the stat work igor has done on the Oilers board regarding +/-. It really is compelling stuff, and has totally converted me.

He makes a convincing argument that a player like Parise has faced weak opponents, showing that a)he is not great defensively, and b)the coach has little faith in his defensive ability, and so shelters him. This is not surprising given that he is only 20 years old, and probably Pouliot and Jacques would be the same, but it's not fair to paint him as great defensively... he just hasn't performed that way this year, since he is a big minus player while getting easy shifts.

This is purely a statistical way of looking at things, and makes no judgement regarding intangibles, and potential.
 

hfboardsuser

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There is luckily a third option. You collect as much information as possible, including viewings of the player(s) and analyze this putting aside numbnut partisan agendas.

Works like a charm.

Okay, we've got two options when evaluating Parise's defense in this situation

Sincerely,
LeVar Burton
 

Rabid Ranger

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oil slick said:
I don't mean to offend any people here, but you all should check out some of the stat work igor has done on the Oilers board regarding +/-. It really is compelling stuff, and has totally converted me.

He makes a convincing argument that a player like Parise has faced weak opponents, showing that a)he is not great defensively, and b)the coach has little faith in his defensive ability, and so shelters him. This is not surprising given that he is only 20 years old, and probably Pouliot and Jacques would be the same, but it's not fair to paint him as great defensively... he just hasn't performed that way this year, since he is a big minus player while getting easy shifts.

This is purely a statistical way of looking at things, and makes no judgement regarding intangibles, and potential.



A "big minus player"? He's -7 on a bad defensive team! I'm not going to sit here and say that's great or anything like that, but let's keep things in perspective.
 

Crosbyfan

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oil slick said:
I don't mean to offend any people here, but you all should check out some of the stat work igor has done on the Oilers board regarding +/-. It really is compelling stuff, and has totally converted me.

He makes a convincing argument that a player like Parise has faced weak opponents, showing that a)he is not great defensively, and b)the coach has little faith in his defensive ability, and so shelters him. This is not surprising given that he is only 20 years old, and probably Pouliot and Jacques would be the same, but it's not fair to paint him as great defensively... he just hasn't performed that way this year, since he is a big minus player while getting easy shifts.

This is purely a statistical way of looking at things, and makes no judgement regarding intangibles, and potential.

I didn't say he was great defensively, just that his +/- is fairly neutral. Certainly not "big minus".
 

oil slick

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Rabid Ranger said:
A "big minus player"? He's -7 on a bad defensive team! I'm not going to sit here and say that's great or anything like that, but let's keep things in perspective.

Sure, it's all in perspective, and my message wasn't really intended for you or Crosby fan. I don't think he's that particularly bad defesively, but I don't buy into the fact that he's particularly good defensive forward which some people have implied repeatedly (as you can imagine, this is not a fresh topic for us Oiler fans).

Bad team or not, I think the fact that the coach doesn't have much faith in him to play against strong oponents does say something... particularly when the coach feels other players from a bad team are more able to compete against top opposition. Again, I'm not saying he'll never be a good defensive forward, but I think some people imply he is one of the more responsible forwards on his team, which I don't buy.
 

Lou is God

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oil slick said:
I don't mean to offend any people here, but you all should check out some of the stat work igor has done on the Oilers board regarding +/-. It really is compelling stuff, and has totally converted me.

He makes a convincing argument that a player like Parise has faced weak opponents, showing that a)he is not great defensively, and b)the coach has little faith in his defensive ability, and so shelters him. This is not surprising given that he is only 20 years old, and probably Pouliot and Jacques would be the same, but it's not fair to paint him as great defensively... he just hasn't performed that way this year, since he is a big minus player while getting easy shifts.

This is purely a statistical way of looking at things, and makes no judgement regarding intangibles, and potential.
How does this guy igor know this? I mean has the Albany coach gone on the record and said this what he is doing, protecting Parise because he feels he can't play defense?
 

Lou is God

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Rabid Ranger said:
A "big minus player"? He's -7 on a bad defensive team! I'm not going to sit here and say that's great or anything like that, but let's keep things in perspective.
Dude, this is cracking me up too. So what we are to understand is that anytime anyone has a negative +/- we are to assume it's because one can't play defense, never mind the fact that they actually can but just happen to be on a team that is struggling.
 

oil slick

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Lou is God said:
How does this guy igor know this? I mean has the Albany coach gone on the record and said this what he is doing, protecting Parise because he feels he can't play defense?

He doesn't know. As I said, "he makes a convincing argument". Feel free to make a more convincing argument, I promise you I'll be receptive.
 

Lou is God

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oil slick said:
He doesn't know. As I said, "he makes a convincing argument". Feel free to make a more convincing argument, I promise you I'll be receptive.
How can I make a convincing arguement against what igor said if i don't know what he said?

Honestly I think alot of you guys are relying TOO much on stats and you found one that you feel you can stick it too Parise to perhaps to try to justify the Oilers passing on him, but hey, that's just me. :D
 

oil slick

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Lou is God said:
Dude, this is cracking me up too. So what we are to understand is that anytime anyone has a negative +/- we are to assume it's because one can't play defense, never mind the fact that they actually can but just happen to be on a team that is struggling.

OK - I'll back down. However, for months people have been rattling on about how Parise was the second coming, and one of the reasons was that he was a checking forward. And the proof they gave was nothing. Finally someone actually noticed the minutes he was playing, and they were soft. Maybe there is some other explanation... maybe the coach is trying to give him confidence... I don't know, but claims he's on the checking line were completely false. I've just yet to really see anything that says he is great defensively. :dunno:
 

oil slick

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Lou is God said:
How can I make a convincing arguement against what igor said if i don't know what he said?

Honestly I think alot of you guys are relying TOO much on stats and you found one that you feel you can stick it too Parise to perhaps to try to justify the Oilers passing on him, but hey, that's just me. :D

There's probably some truth to that, just as there is probably some truth to Devils fans not wanting to admit that he might have to work on his defensive game. Six of one - half a dozen of the other.
 

Lou is God

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oil slick said:
OK - I'll back down. However, for months people have been rattling on about how Parise was the second coming, and one of the reasons was that he was a checking forward. And the proof they gave was nothing. Finally someone actually noticed the minutes he was playing, and they were soft. Maybe there is some other explanation... maybe the coach is trying to give him confidence... I don't know, but claims he's on the checking line were completely false. I've just yet to really see anything that says he is great defensively. :dunno:
I have watched him MANY times before he came to Albany and never saw any defensive liabilties in his game, but at the same time I have never claimed that he was a shut-down centerman on defense either. I just took exception when someone posted it can't play defense and the only arguement that anyone has thrown at me is that he is a -7 in his first pro year on a bad Albany team.
 

oil slick

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Lou is God said:
I have watched him MANY times before he came to Albany and never saw any defensive liabilties in his game, but at the same time I have never claimed that he was a shut-down centerman on defense either. I just took exception when someone posted it can't play defense and the only arguement that anyone has thrown at me is that he is a -7 in his pro year on a bad Albany team.


OK - all I said was "a)he is not great defensively", and "I don't think he's that particularly bad defesively", but if you want to read into that he can't play defense.... I had meant he wasn't a defensive forward... I guess that didn't come accross.
 

hfboardsuser

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Dude, this is cracking me up too. So what we are to understand is that anytime anyone has a negative +/- we are to assume it's because one can't play defense, never mind the fact that they actually can but just happen to be on a team that is struggling.

You really don't understand what sheltering a player means, do you? Basically, he's being put out with the strongest linemates possible against the worst competition possible. Igor's proven this in a seperate thread. However, despite having such a great environment to thrive in, he hasn't. If he played good defense, shouldn't he have a better EV +/- and +/- all around? Don't try to tell me it's because the team sucks. He hast he best players with him most times. One of those players is +13. Another is also in the black. So, if he's the only forward out of the 3 on that line that can't post a positive +/-, who do you think the weakest defensive player is? It's not rocket science.
 

Lou is God

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oil slick said:
OK - all I said was "a)he is not great defensively", and "I don't think he's that particularly bad defesively", but if you want to read into that he can't play defense.... I had meant he wasn't a defensive forward... I guess that didn't come accross.
I wasn't refering to you but to another poster who made that claim.
 

Lou is God

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Mr Bugg said:
You really don't understand what sheltering a player means, do you? Basically, he's being put out with the strongest linemates possible against the worst competition possible. Igor's proven this in a seperate thread. However, despite having such a great environment to thrive in, he hasn't. If he played good defense, shouldn't he have a better EV +/- and +/- all around? Don't try to tell me it's because the team sucks. He hast he best players with him most times. One of those players is +13. Another is also in the black. So, if he's the only forward out of the 3 on that line that can't post a positive +/-, who do you think the weakest defensive player is? It's not rocket science.
So bascially if someone on a team has a positive +/-, it means you can't play defense because your a god awful -70, er I mean -7, gotcha. ;)

By the way, get your facts straight, what I bolded, your totally incorrect, Parise hardly ever linesup with your defensive stud Murphy, it's Suglobov and Voros (among others) for the most part this year and both who have worse +/- than Parise.
 

Rabid Ranger

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Lou is God said:
So bascially if someone on a team has a positive +/-, it means you can't play defense because your a god awful -70, er I mean -7, gotcha. ;)

By the way, get your facts straight, what I bolded, your totally incorrect, Parise hardly ever linesup with your defensive stud Murphy, it's Suglobov and Voros (among others) for the most part this year and both who have worse +/- than Parise.


What all this boils down to is a bunch of people spouting off on a player (Parise) that they know nothing about.
 

JimEIV

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Jay Boumeester was a -15 last year. Does this mean he stinks defensively???
 

oil slick

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JimEIV said:
Jay Boumeester was a -15 last year. Does this mean he stinks defensively???

Do an analysis of who Boumeester was on the ice with and against, and it will give you a decent picture.
 

JimEIV

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oil slick said:
Do an analysis of who Boumeester was on the ice with and against, and it will give you a decent picture.


So Boumeester's teammates matter in his situations, but the fact that just about every player in Albany is a minus doesn't matter Parise case?

I don't get it?
 

oil slick

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JimEIV said:
So Boumeester's teammates matter in his situations, but the fact that just about every player in Albany is a minus doesn't matter Parise case?

I don't get it?
Parise's teammates matter.

As far as I can remember, the statistics work like this:

An event happens when any goal is scored. You look at the +/- of all the people on the ice for each goal. From this you can derive who a player was playing against, and who the player was playing with. I'm not sure of the particulars beyond this, but I think it was 5 on 5 situations.

Only two forwards on Albany played against weaker opponents (meaniing opponents with worse +/-).

No forward on Albany played with better linemates (on average over the course of the year... judging by their +/-)


Maybe he's full of crap... I don't know, but the numbers seemed acurate when he ran statistics on the Oilers. For example, Hemsky had a bad +/-. Even worse, when analysis was done, he was played against weak opponents. He was sheltered... no two ways about it. I think Hemsky will be great, and probably Parise too, but the stats are compelling.
 

Wolfpack

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Oh yes, another Parise vs. Pouliot and Jacques thread... excellent...

A few questions often pop into my mind when this debate crops up.

1. Would we even be having this discussion if Parise hadn't of had such a great WJC two years ago? It seems like Pouliot gets less respect because he didn't make the Canadian WJC squad due to injuries + the deepest CAN team in history. Do we put too much emphasis on players that have played in the WJC?

2. Why is it that whenever a player takes a step back either points-wise or with +/-, everyone says "it's not about the numbers, he brings all the intangibles." It never fails.

3. Why does Parise get so much love for being a "lots of heart" player when it can be argued that thus far in his young career Pouliot has shown at least as much heart? Pre-Crosby he shone as captain on a dismal team. Since then he has overcome serious injuries to play every game this past season and put up terrific numbers.

When you add the that the fact that JFJ dragged a pretty bad BC team into the playoffs and performed very well in that first round series (in a losing effort) I can't see how the Oilers don't have a lot to look forward to.

I like Parise. IMO he has 2nd line upside with 50-60 pts. I can see how NJ fans like what he brings to the table. But it will not surprise me at all if in 3 to 5 years we look back on this trade and conclude that for once the Oil took the Devils to school.
 
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JimEIV

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There are many flaws in that theory.

1. First if a player is scoring the majority of his points on the powerplay.....This formula is scewed.

Because NO +/- is awarded.

And IF that is the case (More points on the PP) the part of knowing the strength of the opponent will never factor, you can assume the best defencive players are on the ice for the Kill.

Then how do you factor in Parise has 2 shorthanded goals???????? He stinks defensively according to Oiler fans, yet he is killing penalties and being sheltered by the coach???

The facts don't show this.
 
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