Parise for Pouliot, Jacques

[Asiaoil]

Big problem on your post here in on your theory on how points on a first year player in the AHL will be translated to on how many points they will score in the NHL, espicially since you didn't seem to take into account the quality of the team he is on or strength of the league this year.

The Rats average just 2.5 goals a game and despite that Parise has averaged .80 points a game or if you want to look at it another way he has been involved in 29% of the teams offensive scoring in a league that is probably the strongest it has ever been in years due to the hockey lockout. For a first year pro player that's pretty damn good, honestly I don't know what else this boy has to do but to suggest he's ONLY going to be a 40-50 point scorer in the NHL because he's not tearing up the league to your satisfaction is selling the kid short(no pun intended).

I am using Gabriel Desjardins' equvelency ratios that suggest most prospects would score at about 41% of their 20 year old AHL season totals if they actually played that season in the NHL. For Parise that would be about a 23 point season over 68 games. Now is this method fool-proof - of course not. It's simply a rule of thumb that's back up by a few stats and some historical evidence. Could Parise do better - yes. Is it very likely - no. This is just a probable outcome based on what a lot of other prospects have achieved over time and of course there are exceptions.

As for Parise being on a weak team excuse - no dice - igor on the Oilers board looked at his situational numbers and he is playing with the best linemates the Rats have against relatively soft opposition. The kid is being eased in and there is nothing wrong about that - but it does put his offensive and defensive numbers into context.

So Parise is a good prospect - just not an elite prospect and the numbers to this point support this view. From a career perspective I still think Mike York is a good analog for Parise. A 40-60 point second line guy who is a little handicapped by his size so you have to get him favorable matchups or he can get into trouble. Having a York-type player on your roster is great - but the Oilers already have him so that's why the trade was made. No other reason than that.

I don't consider myself a Parise slammer - just a Parise realist and to this point I don't see anything that I'm saying is out of line with his actual performance. If the Oilers had him I would be pretty pleased with his progress - but I would also be pretty worried about how to fit both York and Parise into the top 6 at the same time without getting hurt defensively. Given that NJD has Gomez - that's obviously a concern and I would not be surprised to see one of those guys eventually moving on. Small players are fine - you just can't have a top 6 full of them or you will be abused by bigger teams.

 

[Lou is God]

I am using Gabriel Desjardins' equvelency ratios that suggest most prospects would score at about 41% of their 20 year old AHL season totals if they actually played that season in the NHL. For Parise that would be about a 23 point season over 68 games. Now is this method fool-proof - of course not. It's simply a rule of thumb that's back up by a few stats and some historical evidence. Could Parise do better - yes. Is it very likely - no. This is just a probable outcome based on what a lot of other prospects have achieved over time and of course there are exceptions.

As for Parise being on a weak team excuse - no dice - igor on the Oilers board looked at his situational numbers and he is playing with the best linemates the Rats have against relatively soft opposition. The kid is being eased in and there is nothing wrong about that - but it does put his offensive and defensive numbers into context.

So Parise is a good prospect - just not an elite prospect and the numbers to this point support this view. From a career perspective I still think Mike York is a good analog for Parise. A 40-60 point second line guy who is a little handicapped by his size so you have to get him favorable matchups or he can get into trouble. Having a York-type player on your roster is great - but the Oilers already have him so that's why the trade was made. No other reason than that.

I don't consider myself a Parise slammer - just a Parise realist and to this point I don't see anything that I'm saying is out of line with his actual performance. If the Oilers had him I would be pretty pleased with his progress - but I would also be pretty worried about how to fit both York and Parise into the top 6 at the same time without getting hurt defensively. Given that NJD has Gomez - that's obviously a concern and I would not be surprised to see one of those guys eventually moving on. Small players are fine - you just can't have a top 6 full of them or you will be abused by bigger teams.

Where on earth do you keep getting this crazy idea that Parise can't play defense? Seriuosly, what have you seen that everyone is missing because Parise's defense play has AWAYS been strong. And if I could have both York and Parise on the same team at the same time, I do it in a heartbeat and I'd make it work, you could easily move York to a forward position if neccassary. I could care less about their size, their hockey players small or not.

I mean if you think Parise is a liability on defense you need to watch his game more closely, it's not and by a long shot too.

 

[Strong Island]

Where on earth do you keep getting this crazy idea that Parise can't play defense? Seriuosly, what have you seen that everyone is missing because Parise's defense play has AWAYS been strong. And if I could have both York and Parise on the same team at the same time, I do it in a heartbeat and I'd make it work, you could easily move York to a forward position if neccassary. I could care less about their size, their hockey players small or not.

I mean if you think Parise is a liability on defense you need to watch his game more closely, it's not and by a long shot too.

I think he is equating size to defensive ability. Maybe he should look at the fact that over the past few years most Selke award nomminees are under 6', like Madden, Draper, Yzerman, and Peca. I'm not saying that Parise will be a shutdown defensive center in the mold of someone like Peca or Madden, but his lack of size will not factor in to his defensive ability as much as one would like to think.

 

[Asiaoil]

Where on earth do you keep getting this crazy idea that Parise can't play defense? Seriuosly, what have you seen that everyone is missing because Parise's defense play has AWAYS been strong. And if I could have both York and Parise on the same team at the same time, I do it in a heartbeat and I'd make it work, you could easily move York to a forward position if neccassary. I could care less about their size, their hockey players small or not.

I mean if you think Parise is a liability on defense you need to watch his game more closely, it's not and by a long shot too.

My last input on this - Parise is playing with Albany's best forwards against relative soft opposition and he is an ES minus player. What ever you think he's doing defensively - his actual numbers prove just the opposite. All this bunk about Parise being a "shut down" center is silly because his AHL performance simply doesn't support this - and that's typical for smaller young offensive-minded players. If you want talk about a good defensive player on Albany - just look at the difference between Ryan Murphy's and Parise's numbers.

For the last time - Parise is a good prospect who is developing well. He has 2nd line upside but will always have to be used carefully because of his size, and he has to work on becoming a better 5 on 5 player. What do you want? A blank statement that the kid will be Joe Sakic the instant he steps on NHL ice? Hold on to that dream if you want - that's your right as a fan - but other people have a different opinion and can support it with facts.

Peace - Asia

 

[Strong Island]

I guess Sergei Fedorov sucks defensively. He was a -5 last year.

 

[Oiltalk]

I guess Sergei Fedorov sucks defensively. He was a -5 last year.

After years of proving he's one of the best two way centers in the game. What's your point?

 

[McDeepika]

I guess Sergei Fedorov sucks defensively. He was a -5 last year.

He also played very hard minutes and didn't have the great linemates he had in Detroit. According to Asia Parise played easy minutes and was eased into it. So Parise should have had a better +- then he had. That being said he is still a good prospect. As for the trade I am alot happier with it now then I was at the start of the season and actually would rather have who we got.

 

[Crosbyfan]

My last input on this - Parise is playing with Albany's best forwards against relative soft opposition and he is an ES minus player. What ever you think he's doing defensively - his actual numbers prove just the opposite. All this bunk about Parise being a "shut down" center is silly because his AHL performance simply doesn't support this - and that's typical for smaller young offensive-minded players. If you want talk about a good defensive player on Albany - just look at the difference between Ryan Murphy's and Parise's numbers.

For the last time - Parise is a good prospect who is developing well. He has 2nd line upside but will always have to be used carefully because of his size, and he has to work on becoming a better 5 on 5 player. What do you want? A blank statement that the kid will be Joe Sakic the instant he steps on NHL ice? Hold on to that dream if you want - that's your right as a fan - but other people have a different opinion and can support it with facts.

Peace - Asia

I'm a believer in +/-, when read correctly and taken with a grain of salt, and Parise's +/- looks fine on that team. I like Parise (and Pouliot) but I think Bergeron is (still) underrated.

My question is who is Ryan Murphy and how is he a +13 on that team. Not dumping on Albany but noone else is close. Does he have regular linemates? How much icetime does he get and is he a late bloomer?

 

[chsb]

I am the one who brought forward the Parisé/Bergeron comparison, meaning that Parisé better be as good as bergeron down the line to justify this trade as an even one.
First of all, Parisé has not shown to be equal to bergeron so far, far from it.
This WJHC, Bergeron won the MVP title over guys like Malkin,Ovechkin and others on the Canadian team for one simple reason: he played better than them.
Last year, at 18, he played with Team-Canada and did well for his age and experience. He also showed that he is a defensive/offensive combo very seldom matched in a rookie and showed a maturity beyond his years.
Parisé is not halfway up to there as it stands right now.
How can some people claim that his upside is higher than Bergeron with all what Bergeron already accomplished at 19? Need I remind that Bergeron's ceiling is still far from attained?

The bottom line to my post is that I see Pouliot and Jacques as much better players than proposed on this board and I have to command the Oilers for their trade.Jacques is a sure shot NHLer down the road. Pouliot is a first line centerman down the road if injuries don't plague him.

Don't take me wrong! I was impressed by Parisé's play last year at the WJHC and I see a bright future for him, but a lot of guys out here are lacking due respect to what Bergeron accomplished and to his future upside.The Bruins Management is surely not making the same mistake and they got great scouts.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I am the one who brought forward the Parisé/Bergeron comparison, meaning that Parisé better be as good as bergeron down the line to justify this trade as an even one.
First of all, Parisé has not shown to be equal to bergeron so far, far from it.
This WJHC, Bergeron won the MVP title over guys like Malkin,Ovechkin and others on the Canadian team for one simple reason: he played better than them.
Last year, at 18, he played with Team-Canada and did well for his age and experience. He also showed that he is a defensive/offensive combo very seldom matched in a rookie and showed a maturity beyond his years.
Parisé is not halfway up to there as it stands right now.
How can some people claim that his upside is higher than Bergeron with all what Bergeron already accomplished at 19? Need I remind that Bergeron's ceiling is still far from attained?

The bottom line to my post is that I see Pouliot and Jacques as much better players than proposed on this board and I have to command the Oilers for their trade.Jacques is a sure shot NHLer down the road. Pouliot is a first line centerman down the road if injuries don't plague him.

Don't take me wrong! I was impressed by Parisé's play last year at the WJHC and I see a bright future for him, but a lot of guys out here are lacking due respect to what Bergeron accomplished and to his future upside.The Bruins Management is surely not making the same mistake and they got great scouts.

Parise won the MVP over Ovehckin, Malkin, Semin, Carter ect also on a much weaker then then Bergeron. Without Bergeron Canada still probably wins gold, without Parise USA finishes outside medals.

 

[ratsgirl]

I've never seen Pouliot or Jacques play, so I can't comment on them, but having seen Parise play about 35 times this year, all I can say is that I'm absolutely thrilled that the Devils drafted him. And I honestly don't care what others think they can discern about his play based on scoresheets.

My question is who is Ryan Murphy and how is he a +13 on that team. Not dumping on Albany but noone else is close. Does he have regular linemates? How much icetime does he get and is he a late bloomer?

I assume it's a serious question, so here you go:
Ryan Murphy is the son of Mark Murphy, former head coach of the Kings and current NHL VP of Operations. Murph is a former NCAA player (Ryan played for Bowling Green; his brother Patrick currently plays for Northern Michigan) who the Devils picked up as a free agent He is a defensive specialist with some offensive upside who has had a spectacular year playing primarily with Pascal Rheaume (and various centers). Definitely a late bloomer.

 

[Lou is God]

My last input on this - Parise is playing with Albany's best forwards against relative soft opposition and he is an ES minus player. What ever you think he's doing defensively - his actual numbers prove just the opposite. All this bunk about Parise being a "shut down" center is silly because his AHL performance simply doesn't support this - and that's typical for smaller young offensive-minded players. If you want talk about a good defensive player on Albany - just look at the difference between Ryan Murphy's and Parise's numbers.

This what you said:

but I would also be pretty worried about how to fit both York and Parise into the top 6 at the same time without getting hurt defensively.

YOU were the one who brought up his defense play, not me, I'm just correcting you, but since you're arguement on why Parise can't play defense is that his -/+ in his first pro year is crappy I'm not gonna bother anymore. Boy, you real live and die on stats alone.

For the last time - Parise is a good prospect who is developing well. He has 2nd line upside but will always have to be used carefully because of his size, and he has to work on becoming a better 5 on 5 player. What do you want? A blank statement that the kid will be Joe Sakic the instant he steps on NHL ice? Hold on to that dream if you want - that's your right as a fan - but other people have a different opinion and can support it with facts.

Peace - Asia

I don't understand, everybody gets pissed when all I'm doing is doing whatever anybody else is doing and that 's defending their viewpoint. If you don't feel like backing up what you post don't post it, just don't get annoyed at me when I'm going to call you on it. I had no intention to challenge you on your opinion on Parise until I read about you posting that his defense is weak. But suggesting I worship a player because I defend him, I mean com'on dude.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I've never seen Pouliot or Jacques play, so I can't comment on them, but having seen Parise play about 35 times this year, all I can say is that I'm absolutely thrilled that the Devils drafted him. And I honestly don't care what others think they can discern about his play based on scoresheets.



I assume it's a serious question, so here you go:
Ryan Murphy is the son of Mark Murphy, former head coach of the Kings and current NHL VP of Operations. Murph is a former NCAA player (Ryan played for Bowling Green; his brother Patrick currently plays for Northern Michigan) who the Devils picked up as a free agent He is a defensive specialist with some offensive upside who has had a spectacular year playing primarily with Pascal Rheaume (and various centers). Definitely a late bloomer.

Agreed on Murphy, I have him penciled in on the 4th line when the NHL returns, another possible Madden type player just without the offense.

 

[hfboardsuser]

YOU were the one who brought up his defense play, not me, I'm just correcting you, but since you're arguement on why Parise can't play defense is that his -/+ in his first pro year is crappy I'm not gonna bother anymore. Boy, you real live and die on stats alone.

Okay, we've got two options when evaluating Parise's defense in this situation:

A) Listen to you and several other Devils fans trumpet his horn (no bias AT ALL).
B) Look at the stats, most importantly ES +/-.

Honestly, what do you expect us to trust more?

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Okay, we've got two options when evaluating Parise's defense in this situation:

A) Listen to you and several other Devils fans trumpet his horn (no bias AT ALL).
B) Look at the stats, most importantly ES +/-.

Honestly, what do you expect us to trust more?

I expect you to beleive the scouting reports from NCAA and AHL followers. Anyone who watched him play knows he is the 2nd or 3rd most important defensive figure the rats have behind Murphy and Rheaume. There is a reason why he centered their line for the majority of the season.

 

[hfboardsuser]

I expect you to beleive the scouting reports from NCAA and AHL followers.

Show me a recent one from an unbiased source that praises Parise for his defensive play in the AHL.

Anyone who watched him play knows he is the 2nd or 3rd most important defensive figure the rats have behind Murphy and Rheaume. There is a reason why he centered their line for the majority of the season.

So he had Albany's two best defensive players on his line and is still -7? He couldn't have had them on his line because he needed them as a shield, just like his soft minutes were?

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Show me a recent one from an unbiased source that praises Parise for his defensive play in the AHL.



So he had Albany's two best defensive players on his line and is still -7? He couldn't have had them on his line because he needed them as a shield, just like his soft minutes were?

His minus is a result of playing the first 25 games with Suglobov and Voros, two of Albany's worst defensive forwards. I am pretty sure he was -8 or so in that period and no he didn't have them on his line for a shield. Parise was Albany's hardest working forward and was a perfect center for Albany's shutdown line, the only problem is our defense was weak.

I can't show you links because there is none, that still doesn't give you the right to flap your jums about his defensive play when it is obvious none of you have seen him play and base it on his +-. A stat mainly affected by linemates, defense and goaltending.

 

[hfboardsuser]

I can't show you links because there is none, that still doesn't give you the right to flap your jums about his defensive play when it is obvious none of you have seen him play

Unless I'm violating the Charter or a law, I sure as heck do have the right to say that. I expected a bit more of a grown-up response. The proof I'm asking for shouldn't be all that hard to find if he's as important defensively as you claim.

and base it on his +-. A stat mainly affected by linemates, defense and goaltending.

EV +/- is perhaps the most accurate indication of defensive ability out there. Check out igor's stuff if you're not a believer.

 

[Fists of Fuhry]

The title of the thread is "Parise for Pouliot, Jacques " what did you think?

And I still contend that Height and weight will never keep anyone out the NHL who can do the job well.

Your Micki friend did not have a career in the NHL because he couldn't get the job done, not because he was 5'9 180......We know this is true because others 5'9 180 HAVE got the job done.

Comrie, is that you????

 

[MS]

EV +/- is perhaps the most accurate indication of defensive ability out there. Check out igor's stuff if you're not a believer.

+/- doesn't measure defensive ability at all. It measures the player's effectiveness in the role he's playing, in situations where it means anything at all, which it often doesn't.

Albany is 28-41, and almost every player is a substantial minus. Parise's +/- is average in that group, and can't be used to indicate anything really. McAmmond and Rheume have each spent a decade in the NHL primarily in defensive roles. Of course Parise's defensive play won't match up to theirs. The defensive play of Peca or Madden at age 20 wouldn't have stood up to veteran NHL checkers either (not to say Parise will ever be what those guys are). McAmmond is probably the best all-around player in the AHL right now.

 

[Asiaoil]

His minus is a result of playing the first 25 games with Suglobov and Voros, two of Albany's worst defensive forwards. I am pretty sure he was -8 or so in that period and no he didn't have them on his line for a shield. Parise was Albany's hardest working forward and was a perfect center for Albany's shutdown line, the only problem is our defense was weak.

I can't show you links because there is none, that still doesn't give you the right to flap your jums about his defensive play when it is obvious none of you have seen him play and base it on his +-. A stat mainly affected by linemates, defense and goaltending.

I said I was gone - I lied

Yes it's everyone else's fault - Zach's farts don't smell and he craps gold. Igor and the rest of the Oiler stats gurus blew you out of the water on a similar thread on the Oilers board and you just won't quit with this Parise is a defensive wall stuff. You have offered NO EVIDENCE to support your POV other than your own opinion - while other people have - plenty as a matter of fact. If you were a defense attorney your client would be breaking rocks along the side of the road wearing funny striped clothes.

Gotta give you credit for blind persistance though - this Parise as shut-down center thing is religeon for you

 

[Cerebral]

From what I've seen, most posters expect Parise to become a solid second like centerman in the Mike York mould that can put up a good 55-65 points/season. Most New Jersey fans expect him to be slightly better offensively and put up closer to 70 points/season in the NHL. It doesn't seem like the difference is too much - can we all just agree that he'll be a good second line centerman?

 

[Vlad The Impaler]

Okay, we've got two options when evaluating Parise's defense in this situation:

A) Listen to you and several other Devils fans trumpet his horn (no bias AT ALL).
B) Look at the stats, most importantly ES +/-.

There is luckily a third option. You collect as much information as possible, including viewings of the player(s) and analyze this putting aside numbnut partisan agendas.

Works like a charm.

Honestly, what do you expect us to trust more?

One's intellect.

It sure beats what I've seen on this thread.

 

[JimEIV]

On the +/- thing......

You deffinately have to look at it in the context of his team.

The team is a Minus -153 collectively.

There are only 3 regulars(60+ games played) that are above 0; Ryan Murphy, Pascal Rheaume, Bobby Allen.

When you have guys on your team like Voros -9, Clouthier -9, Pikkarainen -Suglobov -13, Pihlman -13, Nittel -14, Janssen -14, Kesa -16 Khomutov -19

The -7 is not that bad.

You can begin to see the -7 when taken in context is not bad at all. I believe Parise is actually 6th or 7th in +/- on the team of players who have played more than 60 games.

 

[chara]

A lot of scouts underestimated Parise. He should have gone top 10 according to Pierre Maguire, TSN hockey analyst. When the Devils moved up to grab him, he called it the steal of the first round.

In 5 years, Parise could very well be the captain of the Devils and when hockey resumes, he will probably be the number 2 centre. The Devils typically challenge their elite prospects and let them play a prominent role on their squad. With Parise, it will be the same and he has proven at every level that he's up for any challenge.