JimEIV said:
...
PASCAL IS A SHUTDOWN CENTER!!!! HE WAS ON A STANELY CUP WINNING TEAM!!!!!!! WTH is this guy talking about???
I'll jump into this thread, though I'm sure that I'll regret it.
First off, I am a big fan of coaching. Bench coaching in particular. And I watch the matchups and count the scoring chances out of habit, pretty much subconsciously. And therefore I put very little stock in the concensus of fans on the internet (a comment like that is sure to win me friends here
).
Most of these kids in the AHL I know nothing about, nor do I care to. But Rheaume has been around a while. And the notion that Pascal is a 'shutdown centre' is, quite frankly, madness. And if he is somebody that should have been played that way ... nobody told Quenneville last year
Only Low, Khavanov and Cajanek played softer minutes of the STL regulars last year.
I really don't know much about Parise at all, and I don't really care ... though these endless Parise debates have taken on a life of their own around here.
A description of the system here if anyone is interested.
http://www.hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=91331 a blurb a few posts down describes the methodology. This is pretty simple and just meant for general trend, though it's very close in most cases, generally speaking the true spread is even wider in the NHL because of the fact that usually the best 5on5 players from competing teams go toe to toe with each other.
For the NHL it's pretty straightforward. And meshes extremely well with the movement of the betting line when a player is a late scratch. And it is of course entirely derivative of Roger Neilsen's stuff from over 15 years ago, but now that the NHL publishes most of the information, it's pretty straightforward to do.
In the AHL we don't have icetimes ... so all I did was wrote a wee script that checks for every player that was on the ice for every 5on5 goal (for or against) and tallies up their +'s and -'s, very simple stuff. Then at the end of all that divides by the total number of goals the player was on the ice for. A lot of room for error, but it should give you a pretty good idea. For the AHL I rely on clever people to scrape this information off of the internet in a usable format every once in a while ... and have only bothered a couple of times this year, last one was recently, about 67 games into the season.
This is for 5on5 ONLY, after 67 River Rat games:
Bear in mind that the coach decides who plays against quality opposition, not the player.
Code:
# NAME 5on5+ 5on5- opp TEAMMATES
16 Nittel 10 23 19.5 -8.9
8 Foster 14 21 18.0 -8.3
3 DeMarchi 23 28 16.6 -5.9
17 Janssen 8 24 12.3 -7.5
27 Redlihs 17 20 11.9 -5.8
2 Allen 34 40 11.2 -5.5
7 Brooks 27 36 11.2 -5.3
22 Suglobov 29 34 11.1 -6.3
15 Khomuto 15 32 10.4 -7.8
28 #N/A 13 27 10.1 -5.2
10 McAmmo 34 32 9.5 -6.3
12 Pikkarain 21 33 8.5 -8.2
19 Voros 29 30 8.1 -5.9
20 Murphy 29 22 7.8 -4.5
11 Parise 29 32 5.2 -4.3
14 Pihlman 18 30 4.4 -7.7
21 Rheaume 34 29 4.3 -4.5
5 Schultz 32 41 3.5 -6.5
26 Kesa 28 42 2.1 -5.2
25 Hale 11 14 11.8 -5.6
6 Cole 3 4 -7.6 -6.8
24 Gionta 8 10 3.4 -7.1
23 #N/A 3 4 -4.9 -7.6
29 Skrlac 2 5 16.0 -8.1
18 #N/A 4 12 10.3 -9.2
This should get apologists of all stripes talking crap.
As an aside, Dawgbone: this
Ryan Murphy player - it's hard to say, because he played almost exclusively with Rheaume this year. He was on the ice for 29 GF after 67 games ... 27 of them with Rheaume.
The PK: Rheaume and Murphy get used a tonne by Ftorek here it seems, on the ice for 25 and 20 GA at 5on4 respectively. [Of course that doesn't necessarily mean they are good outscorers, or even good defensively (SEE Kariya) ... just that the coach thinks that they are good PKers]
The better young forwards on this roster play a lot with either McAmmond or Rheaume, who are fringe NHLers but clearly very good AHLers. And they struggle when playing with neither. The glaring exception is Suglobov, who is a relatively impressive EV+18, EV-21 when playing with neither.
...
River rats youngsters ... 5on5 outscoring when they
weren't with Rheaume or McAmmond.
Code:
EV+ EV-
Murphy 1 5
Voros 10 16
Parise 9 17
Suglobov 18 21
Facts be facts.
Edit: Shortened names on table to get columns aligned.
