Proposal: Nylander and Andersen for Garland and Kuemper

[Moose and Squirrel]

New Keller. After his 65 point year many were saying he was better than Nylander also.

think context is important here.. to try to compare the players per season considering the talent difference on the teams is an apples-oranges scenario
Az has some decent talent on it. they need a new head coach. Tor has a LOT of talent on it, and personally, Nylander is, at highest, #3 on that roster. that's deep.

sorry for all the commas

 

[HockeyVirus]

think context is important here.. to try to compare the players per season considering the talent difference on the teams is an apples-oranges scenario
Az has some decent talent on it. they need a new head coach. Tor has a LOT of talent on it, and personally, Nylander is, at highest, #3 on that roster. that's deep.

sorry for all the commas

Please answer my other post I just made. Nylander being on a team with better players doesn't mean anything IMO. He's just a better player and a better fit for the Leafs than Garland and it's not really close. 35 games doesn't change that.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

What does this even mean?

Nylander is listed as 6 foot 194 pounds.

Garland is listed as 5 foot 10, 165 pounds.

Garland is the EXACT type they DON'T need. And for whatever reason, people seem to suggest Nylander is a perimeter player but he hasn't been one in 2 seasons. This is his shot map, guess where he scores most of his goals?

Please elaborate how Garland fills something that Nylander doesn't for the Leafs.

this is where analytics don't tell the whole story. Nylander will get his points from the slot, but he's not a guy that SITS in front of the net, from what I've seen when I've watched him play. he's very good about attacking the slot, but he's not a Andrechuck (sp?) who sits in there, regardless of his size.
and you don't have to be big to be gritty

and I believe part of the carrot at the end of the stick for this deal is a good amount of payroll flexibility this would give TOR.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Please answer my other post I just made. Nylander being on a team with better players doesn't mean anything IMO. He's just a better player and a better fit for the Leafs than Garland and it's not really close. 35 games doesn't change that.

if you don't think playing on a better team with better talent doesn't make a difference, I'm not sure what to tell you

 

[ER89]

Hello no. Wtf.

 

[HockeyVirus]

this is where analytics don't tell the whole story. Nylander will get his points from the slot, but he's not a guy that SITS in front of the net, from what I've seen when I've watched him play. he's very good about attacking the slot, but he's not a Andrechuck (sp?) who sits in there, regardless of his size.
and you don't have to be big to be gritty

and I believe part of the carrot at the end of the stick for this deal is a good amount of payroll flexibility this would give TOR.

And 165 Garland is? My issue is with your statement that Garland somehow plays a style that Nylander doesn't.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Garland has 27 points in 35 games.
Nylander as 26 points in 36 games.
Nylander is six weeks younger than Garland.
Nylander plays for the league's 4th best offense.
Garland plays for the league's 5th worst offense.
Nylander's cap-hit is NINE TIMES Garland's.

It's okay to think Nylander is the better player. It's okay to think Nylander has better trade-value. But I think it's probably somewhat close, and to say it's not even close is hyperbolic.

Nylander’s cap hit is 9x Garland’s - for this year. Garland is 1 year from UFA.
Don’t think the contract advantage is quite what you’re trying to say that it is

 

[glenbuis]

Last year Nylander had more than 50% more points than Garland. No, it isn't close.

As a neutral fan with nothing in it , garland is a lot closer to nylander than leaf fans are saying . Sure nylander has had more points recently but look who he’s playing with . Until he steps it up in the playoffs as well that gap between the two will remain close to .

 

[rt]

Nylander’s cap hit is 9x Garland’s - for this year. Garland is 1 year from UFA.
Don’t think the contract advantage is quite what you’re trying to say that it is

I hadn't realized that the Salary Cap had been removed for this season. Good to know!

 

[seanlinden]

In any type of 2-for-2 deal where you have the same "positions" swapping... you have to ask yourself -- are you getting an upgrade in at least 1 of the areas? and assuming the answer to that is yes, does the quantum of the downgrade make sense?

Question 1 -- Is Conor Garland an upgrade on William Nylander? To be, the answer is no. While Garland is having a great season, Nylander is much more proven; having scored 20+ goals in 3/4 seasons, pacing at over 35 goals last year, and pacing around 30 this year.

Question 1a -- Is Darcy Kuemper an upgrade over Freddy Andersen? At this point, I would say the fair answer is yes; even though he's only played more than 31 games in a season once in his career. While having the bonus year on his contract helps, it does create a challenge in that he or Jack Campbell would have to be exposed in the ED.

Question 2 -- Is making the upgrade from Kuemper to Andersen "worth" doing the Garland-Nylander swap? and to me, that answer is definitively, no. The implications of a Nylander-Garland swap are far greater than the Andersen-Kuemper swap.

edit:

All that being said, I will give kudos to the OP. From a fan-POV, Garland should be able to come in and give the Leafs a similar level of production to what they're getting out of William Nylander; with perhaps a little more feistyness; and likely a lower cap hit than Nylander's $7m.

If you can re-up Garland at ~$5m on a 3-year deal, it gives the team an additional $2m to work with; on top of the $500k in savings on Kuemper. If maybe you can get the Yotes to retain on Kuemper, even better (with the caveat being the expansion draft challenge).

While I suspect Dubas might be ready to "pull the plug" on Andersen given that it's becoming apparent he isn't in the long term plans, I just don't think he's prepared to entertain touching the big 4. The team seems to be too good to justify making a core shakeup.

 

[patriotfan]

Toronto- Nylander and Andersen

Arizona- Garland and Kuemper

Toronto- gains cap flexibility while upgrading in net.

arizona- gets the best player who would instantly become their best forward.

no way in hell dubass does this, he would do it for gibson and rackell but not these two, i like both players but not worth it, leafs say no to this

 

[HarrisonFord]

I hadn't realized that the Salary Cap had been removed for this season. Good to know!

I didn’t realize that the benefit of one season outweighed consideration of the next 4. Good to know.

 

[rt]

I didn’t realize that the benefit of one season outweighed consideration of the next 4. Good to know.

Outweigh? What are you talking about? Who’s saying that?

 

[rt]

Not saying Nylander's value should be decreased at all. Just saying that they are close in trade value, because context matters, and not just raw numbers. Garland, for essentially being a 2nd year player, is extremely promising, as you point out. His last ~100 games, he's been producing at roughly the same P/60 rate as Nylander, despite playing on a much lower scoring team. He also has a significantly lower cap hit this year, and probably won't be getting anywhere close to $7m on his next contract. Those are the two things that help make up the difference in experience, in my opinion.

On the other hand, Nylander is more of a known entity, and the safer bet. Is that worth the extra cap space? Maybe.

I don't think there's really a right answer here. I'd personally lean towards Garland, because I think he has the potential to significantly out perform his next contract. I'm not as convinced that Nylander has the potential to outperform his ~$7m cap hit. And, with the extra cap space, I can spend a little more to hopefully get a better piece or two somewhere else in the lineup.

Exactly. It’s fine to prefer Nylander.

But Kuemper is much, much better than Andersen.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Outweigh? What are you talking about? Who’s saying that?

Your post seemed to imply that.

 

[rt]

Your post seemed to imply that.

No it didn’t.

 

[Mosby]

Simplify this deal. Remove the forwards. Add Toronto’s first or a comparable prospect.

 

[seanlinden]

Simplify this deal. Remove the forwards. Add Toronto’s first or a comparable prospect.

I highly, highly doubt that the Leafs would give up a 1st round pick to go from Andersen to Kuemper; to then turn around and lose Kuemper or Campbell in the expansion draft.

I also don't recall any recent instances of a goalie, with term or otherwise, garnering a 1st round pick. I do not believe that an oft-injured, 30 year old goalie who's only once started more than 31 games in a season is going to be the exception to that... especially with an expansion draft looming that has rules designed to impact tandem-teams versus teams that have a bonafide #1.

If Arizona wants to get something out of Kuemper, Toronto is probably the team to do it -- especially if they're prepared to retain a little bit of money on the deal an alleviate some cap issues for the Leafs next year, but it's probably in the context of a 2nd-3rd round pick + some other asset.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

As a neutral fan with nothing in it , garland is a lot closer to nylander than leaf fans are saying . Sure nylander has had more points recently but look who he’s playing with . Until he steps it up in the playoffs as well that gap between the two will remain close to .

I find it interesting how differently the leafs board saw this when Dubas was handing out those contracts.

I made the argument that Nylander should make far less than Pastrnak (Nylanders final elc year: 20 goals/60 points Pastrnak final elc paced for 38 goals/77 points). What was I told on the leaf board? "Pastrnak has way more PP time. Pastrnak's linemates are better. Pastrnak plays more minutes per game. etc." The precise same thing was done when comparing Marner to Rantanen.

Funny how just raw point production is all that matters when it's the LEAF player with more points...

 

[Mosby]

I don't think you're necessarily wrong however there is zero motivation for Arizona to retain on Kuemper. Could always be an offseason deal or they just keep him.

 

[Jojalu]

I've watched enough of Leafs games to know Nylander is Casper the ghost 90% of the time.

No you havn't. If you had, you would never make that ridiculous claim.

While Nyalnder has had the odd game where he hasn't been engaged, your statement is ridiculous.

Go back and watch tape of any game and try to prove your claim

 

[seanlinden]

I don't think you're necessarily wrong however there is zero motivation for Arizona to retain on Kuemper. Could always be an offseason deal or they just keep him.

They'd be retaining to increase the value. Kuemper at $4.5m isn't a bad deal, but it's not "spectacular" either.

If you're trading him to a team that has a goalie with a better contract then him already... then they're going to have to make a subsequent deal with Seattle; which ideally, you'd want the team acquiring Kuemper to have good reason to incentivize seattle into taking somebody else.

Off-season certainly an option as well -- although I can imagine that Adin Hill might be a target for Seattle.

 

[glenbuis]

I find it interesting how differently the leafs board saw this when Dubas was handing out those contracts.

I made the argument that Nylander should make far less than Pastrnak (Nylanders final elc year: 20 goals/60 points Pastrnak final elc paced for 38 goals/77 points). What was I told on the leaf board? "Pastrnak has way more PP time. Pastrnak's linemates are better. Pastrnak plays more minutes per game. etc." The precise same thing was done when comparing Marner to Rantanen.

Funny how just raw point production is all that matters when it's the LEAF player with more points...

I respect your point but in this case Toronto’s firepower is a lot greater than Arizona’s . If you flipped them the point difference would definitely be narrowed.

 

[Mosby]

They'd be retaining to increase the value. Kuemper at $4.5m isn't a bad deal, but it's not "spectacular" either.

If you're trading him to a team that has a goalie with a better contract then him already... then they're going to have to make a subsequent deal with Seattle; which ideally, you'd want the team acquiring Kuemper to have good reason to incentivize seattle into taking somebody else.

Off-season certainly an option as well -- although I can imagine that Adin Hill might be a target for Seattle.

Kuemper at 4.5 is fantastic. His name was in the Hart and Vezina conversations last season prior to injury.

 

[seanlinden]

Kuemper at 4.5 is fantastic. His name was in the Hart and Vezina conversations last season prior to injury.

Not when you can't rely on him to be your #1 goalie.

Don't get me wrong -- when healthy, Kuemper is a Veznia-calibre goalie - although I do believe his numbers are perhaps a little inflated by playing behind a very stingy defensive team in the Coyotes for the past few years. The problem is -- a team cannot go into a season relying on him to play 55-60 games... which means you generally need a guy who's at least a "1B" goalie to pair with him, and those guys usually cost around $3m.