Proposal: Nylander and Andersen for Garland and Kuemper

[lanky]

Career 0.56 PPG (150 games) vs 0.72 PPG (343 games)

Other than Nylander is 1 month younger, how is this close?

Look at pts/60 instead of pts/gm.
This is the first season where Garland hasn't been held back by terrible coaching decisions.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

even after his new deal he won’t be overpaid like nylander. There is no reason for Arizona to bail Toronto out of their cap troubles. This trade would be awful for Arizona.

If you think Nylander is overpaid, you clearly are unaware of the NHL market.

 

[AZviaNJ]

If only there were strong opinions on this topic....

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Wild fan with no skin in this game and this is too light a return for Nylander by at least a high pick and prospect. And even then, I wouldn't do the deal. It would just be a more reasonable offer. IMO.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

So what you are saying is Nylander's value should be decreased because he's good enough to be a regular fixture on one of the top scoring teams' powerplay? A team with plenty of high end offensive talent for him to beat out for that spot.

In the year that's being talked about Carl Soderberg had more powerplay production that Garland, on the same "his value should be higher than his production indicates because he plays for" Arizona Coyotes. Is Soderberg also equal value to Nylander then?

There's lots to like about Garland. He's improved every year, and his significantly less NHL experience vs Nylander can be viewed as both an asset and a detriment. An asset because his lower production years relative to Nylander are potentially just him adapting to the league. A detriment because the greatest determinant of value to NHL GMs is what you've ACTUALLY done. Garland might legitimately turn out to be as good as Nylander, maybe better, but the discussion for him having similar value is for ~2 years from now, when/if he's done it consistently for an extended period of time as Nylander has. Since his contract is expiring, that also happens to be a time when he has a new contract and isn't making "9 times" less than Nylander.

No one thinks Liljegren is worth much. Leafs fans can go on about how he's been the marlies #1 D, has become a really well rounded D, etc. That doesn't mean any NHL GM is gonna pay a top 4 dman price for him, because he hasn't done that yet. They still won't even if he gets called up and at some point has a steak of 35 games where he plays like a top 4 guy. The leafs best bet is to give him a chance to play and hope he can prove he can be that. Arizona's best bet is to re-sign Garland and hope he continues to play the way he has the last 35 games.

35 games producing like another player has for half a decade isn't enough to make them the same value, even if they are on a cheap deal... that also happens to be expiring.

Not saying Nylander's value should be decreased at all. Just saying that they are close in trade value, because context matters, and not just raw numbers. Garland, for essentially being a 2nd year player, is extremely promising, as you point out. His last ~100 games, he's been producing at roughly the same P/60 rate as Nylander, despite playing on a much lower scoring team. He also has a significantly lower cap hit this year, and probably won't be getting anywhere close to $7m on his next contract. Those are the two things that help make up the difference in experience, in my opinion.

On the other hand, Nylander is more of a known entity, and the safer bet. Is that worth the extra cap space? Maybe.

I don't think there's really a right answer here. I'd personally lean towards Garland, because I think he has the potential to significantly out perform his next contract. I'm not as convinced that Nylander has the potential to outperform his ~$7m cap hit. And, with the extra cap space, I can spend a little more to hopefully get a better piece or two somewhere else in the lineup.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Garland's gotten pretty damn overrated on this board it seems. New flavor of the month. He's definitely a good player, but him being equal with Nylander for 30 games doesn't make him equal to Nylander.

Until Garland is actually capable of putting up 60 point seasons, he's not on Nylander's level. Nylander is a proven 60 point winger, Garland's only on pace for 60 points this year.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Geez, Garland should fire his agent if he's equal to Nylander but getting paid half as much.

It's the reality of being an unproven RFA in a time with a flat cap. Maybe half price is a pipe dream, but I think he's a candidate for a bridge deal, like 2 years, $4.5m. That savings is significant, assuming Garland can continue to produce at this level.

 

[AvroArrow]

Start with Matthews. Haha

We're talking about Conor Garland, not McDavid

 

[AvroArrow]

Coyotes laugh and terminate their mobile service so dubas can’t insult them ever again

Dubas laughs as that's one less phone bill for him to pay

 

[inthewings]

Not sure why the conversation here is about whether or not the Leafs should trade Garland for Nylander, when there are two other assets in the proposed deal: a valuable asset from Arizona and a cap dump from Toronto.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Last year Nylander had more than 50% more points than Garland. No, it isn't close.

And not all development is linear.

 

[Spirit of 67]

NFW

 

[DougGilmour93]

It’s not a bad start.
I’d prefer to deal Nylander for an up and coming dman but if this was the best offer and I needed to clear cap space I’d work with this. I do believe Arizona would need to add or the deal would have to be expanded on.

 

[rt]

Not sure why the conversation here is about whether or not the Leafs should trade Garland for Nylander, when there are two other assets in the proposed deal: a valuable asset from Arizona and a cap dump from Toronto.

Exactly. Garland and Nylander are a lot closer to value than Kuemper and Andersen. It’s a bad deal for Arizona and they wouldn’t consider it.

Arizona would obviously be much better off simply re-signing Garland. The proposal solves major problems for Toronto while creating major problems for Arizona. It is a completely one-sided offer that considers the perspective of the Coyotes not at all.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

I think Arizona needs to add here. Does Garland have arb rights? He will probably command 5 mil per in that situation. Nylander is only owed 6 mil (actual salary) per year for the next 3 years (+ only owed $1mil in salary or so for the rest of this year), so I don't think money is as big of a deal. I also think Garland might be overproducing a bit 5 on 5 while Nylander might be underproducing a bit.

 

[T_Cage]

As a Leafs fan I’d give this a long look. We downgrade at F but upgrade at G

is this season Garlands new normal, or an aberration? I feel like Garland is legit, but do I wanna gamble Nylander on it.... any proposal that makes me think is a good one, so nice job OP

 

[GermanSpitfire]

So the Leafs not only gain cap space in the deal, but get a better goalie and offload the other goalie who right now has negative value? the only sacrifice made is a slight downgrade at wing!?

Sign me up!

 

[inthewings]

I think Arizona needs to add here. Does Garland have arb rights? He will probably command 5 mil per in that situation. Nylander is only owed 6 mil (actual salary) per year for the next 3 years (+ only owed $1mil in salary or so for the rest of this year), so I don't think money is as big of a deal. I also think Garland might be overproducing a bit 5 on 5 while Nylander might be underproducing a bit.

OK, but Kuemper is also included in the deal.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Garland is better than Nylander. Trade doesn’t make sense.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Its NOT BAD but IMO its not the right deal for the Leafs.

Pretty decent proposal tho!

Kuemper is good but too injury prone it seems... thats the kicker for me. Garland is very underrated and would be a good acquisition tho

The cap flexibility is HUGE though for TO... thats a tough thing to find nowadays

agree.. this is the kind of deal TOR SHOULD do, but won't. but from a Leafs fans POV, they'll want Matthews for Nylander.. oh wait...

seriously tho, Nylander IS a very talented player, but he's a type of player they have too much of. is Garland the one they should be using Nylander to get? not sure, but it's not HORRIBLE
and yeah, the big kicker is the goalie coming back from ARZ is on the IR more than the ice... but when he's on the ice, he's VERY good

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Seems like both fan bases are torn so it must not be that bad....?

 

[Baby Doaner]

We're talking about Conor Garland, not McDavid

I was joking, so...

 

[HockeyVirus]

Garland's gotten pretty damn overrated on this board it seems. New flavor of the month. He's definitely a good player, but him being equal with Nylander for 30 games doesn't make him equal to Nylander.

Until Garland is actually capable of putting up 60 point seasons, he's not on Nylander's level. Nylander is a proven 60 point winger, Garland's only on pace for 60 points this year.

New Keller. After his 65 point year many were saying he was better than Nylander also.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Wild fan with no skin in this game and this is too light a return for Nylander by at least a high pick and prospect. And even then, I wouldn't do the deal. It would just be a more reasonable offer. IMO.

honestly, not sure why Az does this deal, much less throw in more. Nylander isn't going to be a huge difference maker for them, not on his own anyways
Az needs a Nylander AND a Garland.. not one or the other

 

[HockeyVirus]

agree.. this is the kind of deal TOR SHOULD do, but won't. but from a Leafs fans POV, they'll want Matthews for Nylander.. oh wait...

seriously tho, Nylander IS a very talented player, but he's a type of player they have too much of. is Garland the one they should be using Nylander to get? not sure, but it's not HORRIBLE
and yeah, the big kicker is the goalie coming back from ARZ is on the IR more than the ice... but when he's on the ice, he's VERY good

What does this even mean?

Nylander is listed as 6 foot 194 pounds.

Garland is listed as 5 foot 10, 165 pounds.

Garland is the EXACT type they DON'T need. And for whatever reason, people seem to suggest Nylander is a perimeter player but he hasn't been one in 2 seasons. This is his shot map, guess where he scores most of his goals?

Please elaborate how Garland fills something that Nylander doesn't for the Leafs.