NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[What the Faulk]

Adrian Peterson who doesn't catch passes is going to do nothing but hold down Bridgewater's numbers.

 

[InjuredChoker]

OC change probably has/would have pretty significant effect too. i doubt keenum would be having a season like this one in turner's air coryell.

 

[Avs_19]

Two years ago Diggs was a rookie that started 9 games and Thielen barely saw the field. I'll give you we don't know how he'll respond after the injury, but in general talent, yeah Bridgewater is better and it's not really close.

Adrian Peterson who doesn't catch passes is going to do nothing but hold down Bridgewater's numbers.

OC change probably has/would have pretty significant effect too. i doubt keenum would be having a season like this one in turner's air coryell.

All of this. He was also the most pressured QB in the NFL behind that really poor OL. This is a completely different and much improved offense now because of the personnel and Shurmur as the OC.

The only question is what type of QB is he now after the injury and that much time away. If he's still the same guy, which might be a big if, then I have no doubt he'd be a fairly significant upgrade over Keenum in this system.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Case Keenum is the same QB he always has been. He throws 3 or 4 interceptable passes a game. The Vikings O-line sets the table and allows the offense to function.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looking at the Panthers(because they're my team) potential tiebreakers with teams they could end up tied with

PHI: loses h2h, if 3 way tie w/o h2h sweep, loses conf record: Can't win a tiebreaker over PHI

MIN: h2h game upcoming, if 3 way tie w/o h2h sweep lose conf record: Only tiebreaker they can win is a 2/3 way tie where they beat MIN/h2h sweep

NO: lost 1st h2h, 2nd one this week. If we win would come down to div record which both teams would have 1 loss thus far, CAR 1 more win(3-1 v 2-1), common games tied, we lose conf record. If we lose the only way we can win a h2h over NO is a 3 way tie with ATL, with a 2-2 h2h for everyone and we win on div record 4-2. Would require the following: ATL def. MIN, NO, NO, ATL loses to TB, CAR, NO def. NYJ, NO loses to ATL, ATL, TB, CAR def. TB, ATL, CAR loses to MIN, GB.

LAR: no h2h, can only tie conf record if LAR beat TEN. common games: SF, PHI, NO, MIN. LAR 2-1 with games to come against PHI, and SF. CAR 1-2 with games to come against NO, MIN. Given LAR will likely beat SF, CAR needs to win both and have PHI beat LAR to tie common games. SOV currently heavily in CAR favor if common games is tied.

ATL: Won 1st h2h, 2nd win would give us h2h, but could still lose tiebreaker in a 3 way 10-6 tie including NO where ATL is 4-2 in div record. If we lose the 2nd game with ATL we would have 1 more div loss than ATL does at the moment(2-2 v 2-1). CAR wins common games in a 2/3/4 way tie over ATL

SEA: no h2h, loses conf record tiebreaker. Can't win a tiebreaker over SEA

DET: won h2h, would lose conf record tiebreaker in a 3 or 4 way tie w/o h2h sweep

DAL: no h2h, loses conf record tiebreaker. Can't win a tiebreaker over DAL

WSH: no h2h, loses conf record tiebreaker. Can't win a tiebreaker over WSH

GB: h2h to come, would lose conf record tiebreaker in a 3 or 4 way tie w/o h2h sweep.

ARI: no h2h, loses conf record tiebreaker. Can't win a tiebreaker over ARI

TB: won 1st h2h, 2nd win would put us out of reach(9-3 v. 4-8), tie would secure h2h, and secure div record tie, common games tied, TB would advance on conf record. TB win would tie h2h, CAR would have div record advantage(2-2 v. 1-3), but to get a tie div record would be TB's or tied, common games tied, conf record TB. Can't win a tiebreaker against TB.

CHI: lost h2h, loses conf record tiebreaker, Can't win a tiebreaker against CHI

NYG, SF: Can't tie them

So in conclusion

Can't beat in a tiebreaker: PHI, SEA, DAL, WSH, ARI, TB, CHI
Unlikely to beat in a tiebreaker: LAR
Likely to win tiebreakers against: DET
Guaranteed to beat in a tiebreaker: Nobody
Heavily dependent on upcoming h2h game: MIN, GB, ATL, NO
Can't tie: NYG, SF

Could have put ATL in the likely category, and NO in the unlikely given we have 1 h2h win and the common games over ATL, and NO has 1 h2h and conf record over us, but given ATL would have a div record advantage against us if they won and we'd have a div record advantage over them if we won ATL v. CAR/CAR v. NO is in decent enough shape with a win that the future h2h is important to the h2h

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Adrian Peterson who doesn't catch passes is going to do nothing but hold down Bridgewater's numbers.

Kinda like Zeke Elliott not being there would help Prescott's passing numbers, right?

 

[What the Faulk]

Kinda like Zeke Elliott not being there would help Prescott's passing numbers, right?

Keenum has two top 10 WRs
Bridgewater had a top 10 RB
Dak had a top 10 RB and put up solid numbers, and now doesn't have anybody (Dez has sucked for years).

Not sure what you're getting at here.

 

[What the Faulk]

Carolina tiebreakers

Yeah, I've scouted this a few times and keep coming to the conclusion that, aside from H2H tiebreakers, they're not really in good shape against anybody. If they lose to NO then I'm pretty much counting the division as out of reach. A win puts them in a great spot as long as they keep pace.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Keenum has two top 10 WRs
Bridgewater had a top 10 RB
Dak had a top 10 RB and put up solid numbers, and now doesn't have anybody (Dez has sucked for years).

Not sure what you're getting at here.

Keenum has 1 top 10 WR. Diggs is the same guy he was with Bridgewater, 4 catches a game, same amount.

My argument has never been Keenum is good, it's that Bridgewater was, at best BARELY better two years ago when he had 2 knees. Now in the middle of a playoff run you think about bringing him back? Unless Keenum craps the bed, which he may on Sunday, you can't bring him back.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yeah, I've scouted this a few times and keep coming to the conclusion that, aside from H2H tiebreakers, they're not really in good shape against anybody. If they lose to NO then I'm pretty much counting the division as out of reach. A win puts them in a great spot as long as they keep pace.

Yeah, I'll never turn down a win, but going 4-0 against the AFC really kills your conference record tiebreaker. The only other team we could win it against is the Rams who are 3-0 against the AFC with the Titans to go, and then the common games aren't looking great there.

This coming week against NO is absolutely huge. In theory we could win out and have NO go 2-2(or 3-1 v. 1-3, or 2-2 v. 0-4) or have that 1 in a million scenario with a 3 way 10-6 tie that we win the division on division record, but you're likely looking at a <10% chance of winning the division if we lose this week. Massive game.

 

[What the Faulk]

Keenum has 1 top 10 WR. Diggs is the same guy he was with Bridgewater, 4 catches a game, same amount.

My argument has never been Keenum is good, it's that Bridgewater was, at best BARELY better two years ago when he had 2 knees. Now in the middle of a playoff run you think about bringing him back? Unless Keenum craps the bed, which he may on Sunday, you can't bring him back.

Off the top of my head, WRs I'm taking over Diggs for sure include: Brown, Julio, Hopkins, Allen, Green, Beckham, Evans, Baldwin with an argument to be made for Cooks, Thomas, and Thielen. Either way, that's close enough. I agree with the rest, though. I'm sticking with Keenum until he gives me a reason to yank him. I'm just saying, I think it's pretty clear that Bridgewater has more talent than Keenum. Whether he's the same player is definitely up for debate.

 

[Avs_19]

If the Eagles lose tonight, the Vikings move into first place based on the SOV tie breaker, correct?

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

• 1st Seed - Minnesota
  NFC North Champ
  Wins tie break over Philadelphia based on best win percentage in common games.

According to ESPN playoff machine.

 

[Reality Check]

Case Keenum with a first round bye....

Lions to me are done officially. Even if Seattle loses tonight.

Not sure how serious the injury is to Stafford. But it's enough for me to say uncle.

 

[What the Faulk]

If the Eagles lose tonight, the Vikings move into first place based on the SOV tie breaker, correct?

NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

Looks like it. The ESPN machine is still broken and has been for like 2 years now.

 

[Avs_19]

NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

Looks like it. The ESPN machine is still broken and has been for like 2 years now.

Nice. The ESPN machine was what I was playing around with.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Yeah, ESPN is wrong.

So far, the Vikes and Eagles have played the Redskins and Bears as common opponents. Vikes are 2-0, Eagles are 3-0. The Rams (Eagles have not played them yet) and Panthers (Vikings have not played them yet) are left, as well as Minny playing Chicago one more time.

 

[What the Faulk]

The worst part about the game yesterday is that there's now a very good chance Carolina has to go back to New Orleans in Round 1 in the 3/6 matchup. Third times a charm?

 

[Canada4Gold]

Had the NFC elimination scenarios done last night, and then before I saved them my computer crashed. Oh well they weren't that hard. Might run through them again tonight or tomorrow, or I just might wait for the reddit ones. TB, and ARI were fairly short. There were a lot for Washington. Because with a loss there were 3 seperate sets of results that would put 1 team in from of them. CAR or ATL win/tie, SEA win/tie or DAL win, and then DET win + GB win/tie or DET tie + GB win. Which leaves 12 different combos of things that would eliminate them along with a WSH loss, and I believe they had 2 tie scenarios as well for 14 total.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here's what I got, MIN and NO scenarios not included yet because I haven't done them

TB eliminated:

SEA win/tie + CAR win/tie
SEA win/tie + ATL win/tie
DAL win + CAR win/tie
DAL win + ATL win/tie
TB loss/tie

WSH eliminated:

WSH tie + SEA win + CAR win
WSH tie + SEA win + CAR tie + ATL win/tie
WSH loss + SEA win/tie + CAR win/tie
WSH loss + SEA win/tie + ATL win/tie
WSH loss + SEA win/tie + DET win + GB win/tie
WSH loss + SEA win/tie + DET tie + GB win
WSH loss + DAL win + CAR win/tie
WSH loss + DAL win + ATL win/tie
WSH loss + DAL win + DET win + GB win/tie
WSH loss + DAL win + DET tie + GB win
WSH loss + ATL win + DET win + GB win/tie
WSH loss + ATL win + DET tie + GB win

ARI eliminated:

SEA win + CAR win + ATL win
ARI tie + SEA win/tie + CAR win/tie + ATL win/tie
ARI loss + CAR win/tie
ARI loss + ATL win/tie
ARI loss + DET win + GB win/tie
ARI loss + DET tie + GB win

PHI clinches:

PHI win/tie
DAL loss/tie

LAR clinches:

LAR win + CAR loss + ATL loss + DET loss/tie + GB loss/tie + DAL loss/tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

Had the NFC elimination scenarios done last night, and then before I saved them my computer crashed. Oh well they weren't that hard. Might run through them again tonight or tomorrow, or I just might wait for the reddit ones. TB, and ARI were fairly short. There were a lot for Washington. Because with a loss there were 3 seperate sets of results that would put 1 team in from of them. CAR or ATL win/tie, SEA win/tie or DAL win, and then DET win + GB win/tie or DET tie + GB win. Which leaves 12 different combos of things that would eliminate them along with a WSH loss, and I believe they had 2 tie scenarios as well for 14 total.

Ouch. That's the worst. For now, here's the list barring ties :

ENTERING WEEK 14:

Teams already eliminated: San Francisco, New York Giants, Chicago

Controls own destiny for #1 seed: Nope.
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny with a win and a PHI loss
- Minnesota can also gain control of their own destiny with a win and 6 of the following: NYJ win, KC win, GB win, TEN win, HOU win, or CIN
- Philadelphia can gain control of their own destiny with a win and a MIN loss
Teams eliminated from #1 seed contention: Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay
- Dallas is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, MIN win, or PHI win
- Detroit is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, MIN win, or PHI win
- Green Bay is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss, MIN win, or PHI win
- Atlanta is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss.
- Carolina is eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss.
**In all honestly, Dallas is probably already eliminated here (they'd have to beat NO in a strength of victory tiebreak they are way behind in), and Detroit is probably eliminated with a NO win as well for the same reason. Seattle is in a similar boat (except against MIN) with a loss and a MIN win.

Controls own destiny for 1st round bye: Philadelphia, Minnesota
- Minnesota will lose control of their own destiny with a loss, LAR win, and NO win (*will still control hefty strength of victory lead at worst).
- Philadelphia will lose control of their own destiny with a loss.
- Los Angeles will gain control of their own destiny with a win and a NO loss ONLY IF Minnesota clinches strength of victory tiebreaker vs. PHI.
Teams eliminated from 1st round bye contention: Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay
- Green Bay will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or MIN win. (A PHI+NO win would put them at the mercy of a SOV tiebreak with NO they would trail)
- Dallas will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss, NO win, MIN win, or a PHI win.
- Detroit will be eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss or MIN win. (Again, a PHI+NO win would put them at best at the mercy of a SOV tiebreak with NO they would significantly trail)
- Atlanta is eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss.
- Carolina is eliminated from 1st round bye contention with a loss and a PHI win.

Has clinched division: None
- Philadelphia clinches the NFC East with a win or a Dallas loss
- Minnesota clinches the NFC North with a win or a GB+DET loss.
Controls own destiny for division: Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle
- Atlanta loses control of their own destiny in the NFC South with a loss.
- Seattle loses control of their own destiny in the NFC West with a loss and a LAR win.
Has been eliminated from divisional contention:Washington, Tampa Bay, Arizona
- Dallas will be eliminated from divisional contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Detroit will be eliminated from divisional contention with a loss or a MIN win
- Green Bay will be eliminated from divisional contention with a loss or a MIN win
- Atlanta will be eliminated from divisional contention with a loss.


Has clinched a wild card spot: None
Clinching Scenarios:
- Los Angeles clinches at least a wild card spot with a win, GB loss, DET loss, CAR loss, ATL loss, and DAL loss
- New Orleans will clinch a playoff spot with a win plus either (1)a MIN win or (2)a GB + DET loss
Controls own destiny for a playoff spot: Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle
- Atlanta loses control of their own destiny for a playoff spot with a loss and a CAR win.
Elimination Scenarios
- Tampa Bay is eliminated with a loss, SEA or DAL win and a CAR or ATL win.
- Washington is eliminated with a loss and two of the following three: (1)DAL or SEA win, (2)ATL win (3)GB or DET win
- Washington is also eliminated with a loss and two of the following three: (1)DAL or SEA win, (2)CAR win, (3)DET+GB win.
- Arizona is eliminated with a CAR+ATL+SEA win
- Arizona is eliminated with a loss combined with any of the following: CAR win, ATL win, or a DET win.


I'll likely go back through the week and update/figure out some more of the strength of victory stuff, but this will do for now.

I also do not guarantee complete accuracy. This week was nuts

 

[Canada4Gold]

Elimination Scenarios
- Tampa Bay is eliminated with a loss, SEA or DAL win and a CAR or ATL win.
- Washington is eliminated with a loss and two of the following three: (1)DAL or SEA win, (2)CAR or ATL win (3)DET win
- Arizona is eliminated with a CAR+ATL+SEA win
- Arizona is eliminated with a loss combined with any of the following: CAR win, ATL win, or a DET win.


I'll likely go back through the week and update/figure out some more of the strength of victory stuff, but this will do for now.

Not going to have time to run through this all now, but just found a mistake in mine that caused these WSH ones to be wrong as well. If CAR wins this week you can have them beat GB, and ATL as well(as they're already ahead of WSH), and then a DET win wouldn't be sufficient as you could still get DET and GB both to be at 7-9. In a tie-less world you'd also need a GB win. The DET win is sufficient if the other result is DAL, SEA, or ATL. Here is a DET/CAR win, WSH loss scenario with WSH in

NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

In my case with ties possible this removes DET, and GB entirely from CAR win/tie and ATL tie scenarios.

edit: Wouldn't a GB win be enough to eliminate in the SEA, DAL, ATL win cases, Similar to DET win you have to let CAR beat GB to go ahead, otherwise 1 of DET or GB would be at 8-8 and beat WSH in tiebreaker(DET 7-5 v. 6-6 conf record, GB common games)

 

[misterchainsaw]

Not going to have time to run through this all now, but just found a mistake in mine that caused these WSH ones to be wrong as well. If CAR wins this week you can have them beat GB, and ATL as well(as they're already ahead of WSH), and then a DET win wouldn't be sufficient as you could still get DET and GB both to be at 7-9. In a tie-less world you'd also need a GB win. The DET win is sufficient if the other result is DAL, SEA, or ATL. Here is a DET/CAR win, WSH loss scenario with WSH in

NFL Playoff Predictor - Playoff Predictors

In my case with ties possible this removes DET, and GB entirely from CAR win/tie and ATL tie scenarios.

Blech. Like I said this week was stupid haha. I went the easy way for now and just added a GB win to the 3rd criteria .

It would actually kind of shock me if that's the only mistake I made. I'm at least 99% sure there's things I've omitted, even ignoring strength of victory.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Blech. Like I said this week was stupid haha. I went the easy way for now and just added a GB win to the 3rd criteria .

It would actually kind of shock me if that's the only mistake I made. I'm at least 99% sure there's things I've omitted, even ignoring strength of victory.

I see you added GB win in in an OR fashion. Which I just edited into my post just now. But if the 2nd result is CAR you need both, so GB and CAR, or DET and CAR isn't enough. Kind of difficult to write in a 1 line way like you're doing. Maybe something like (DET or GB win) AND (SEA, DAL, or ATL win), or CAR win + DET win + GB win, or (SEA or DAL) and (ATL or CAR). Can't really get in all in a 2 of 3 scenario like you've done when the CAR case requires a different DET/GB case

 

[misterchainsaw]

I see you added GB win in in an OR fashion. Which I just edited into my post just now. But if the 2nd result is CAR you need both, so GB and CAR, or DET and CAR isn't enough. Kind of difficult to write in a 1 line way like you're doing. Maybe something like (DET or GB win) AND (SEA, DAL, or ATL win), or CAR win + DET win + GB win, or (SEA or DAL) and (ATL or CAR). Can't really get in all in a 2 of 3 scenario like you've done when the CAR case requires a different DET/GB case

I'm pretty sure I just meant to put "and" instead of "or". Using "or" left that scenario with the exact same problems it had before

It's not as specific this way (like you said, the ATL wins scenarios are less restrictive), but it gets most of them and I think we all know Washington's leaving eventually.

EDIT: Ended up splitting it into two pieces.