NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[Canada4Gold]

Today certainly made it much tougher to get an 11-5 or a 10-6 team missing that's for sure, which is good with me as a Panthers fan. Lions at 6-5 and we have the 2 way h2h tiebreaker is great for us. Though obviously that gets thrown out if the Hawks or Rams are in that tie as well and then our conference record likely screws us.

With the Lions and Cowboys losses today I'd say it's very likely 11 is good now, and quite possible that there may only be 6 teams with 10 wins or more.

 

[misterchainsaw]

POST THANKSGIVING-DAY WEEK 12:

Controls own destiny for #1 seed:
Philadelphia
- Philadelphia can lose control of their own destiny with a loss
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny with a PHI loss

Controls own destiny for a first round bye:
Philadelphia
- Philadelphia can lose control of their own destiny with a loss and a NO win
- Minnesota can gain control of their own destiny with a win and a NO or PHI loss
- New Orleans can gain control of their own destiny with a win and a PHI loss

Controls own destiny for the division title:
Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle
- Atlanta can lose control of their own destiny with a loss
- Carolina can lose control of their own destiny with a loss and a NO win.
- Seattle can lose control of their own destiny with a loss and a LAR win.

Controls own destiny for wild card:
Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle
- Detroit can gain control of their own destiny with a LAR loss and CAR win
- Seattle loses control of their own destiny with a loss, LAR win, and ATL win
- Green Bay gains control of their own destiny with a win and a (1)NO, ATL, and CAR loss OR (2) LAR loss and either ATL or CAR loss.

Clinching Scenarios
Nope

Elimination Scenarios
- Barring ties, San Francisco and the New York Giants are already eliminated.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Vikings don't quite control a 1st round bye as they could lose a 3 way 14-2 tie with NO and PHI on SOV. See Example

 

[What the Faulk]

Carolina is so close to controlling their destiny for a bye. Just need another Rams loss. Damn 3-way 13-3 tiebreaker with Minnesota and LA.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Vikings don't quite control a 1st round bye as they could lose a 3 way 14-2 tie with NO and PHI on SOV. See Example

Doh. I was looking only if Philly loses this week, then the three way tiebreaker between Philly, NO, and Minnesota would be decided by common opponents (common opponents of CHI, LAR, WSH, and CAR) knocking Philly out, and then Minnesota would win the NFC on head to head vs. NO.

Didn't throw in later Philly losses in the schedule I guess.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Carolina is so close to controlling their destiny for a bye. Just need another Rams loss. Damn 3-way 13-3 tiebreaker with Minnesota and LA.

They could also lose a 3 way tiebreaker with Philly and Minnesota at 13-3 (if Minnesota wins the original three way tiebreaker via strength of victory, Carolina's H2H win against them ceases to matter and they lose the tiebreaker for the 2nd seed to Philly via a H2H loss). Since Philly can lose this week and still get to 13-3, and Minnesota has already played, there is no way for Carolina to control their own destiny for a bye after this week's games.

 

[What the Faulk]

Oh, whoops, I didn't think of that.

 

[Canada4Gold]

SF and NYG both eliminated with the ATL and CAR wins(in addition to the NYG loss on Thanskgiving)

 

[Halladay]

Birds should get a bye if The score in LA holds.

 

[What the Faulk]

Here we go

Week 13:
Vikings @ Falcons
Panthers @ Saints
Eagles @ Seahawks

Week 14:
Saints @ Falcons
Vikings @ Panthers
Eagles @ Rams
Seahawks @ Jaguars

 

[Canada4Gold]

Tentative scenarios for next week. Philly's scenarios are easy and clearly correct. The GB loss tonight helped simplify the Bears scenarios(there would have been 11 by my guess had GB won), and hopefully are correct, but you never know. Will confirm when the reddit source makes his.

Chicago is eliminated from the playoffs with...
CHI loss
CHI tie + ATL win/tie
CHI tie + SEA win/tie
ATL win/tie + SEA win
CAR win/tie + SEA win
CAR win/tie + ATL win

Philadelphia Clinches the NFC East with...
PHI win/tie
DAL loss/tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

ENTERING WEEK 13: (Again, everything is barring ties)

Teams already eliminated: San Francisco, New York Giants

Controls own destiny for #1 seed: Philadelphia
- Philadelphia can lose control of their own destiny with a loss and a MIN win. (Note that Minnesota would not gain control of theirs; a tie at 14-2 with the Eagles loss coming this week would result in a strength of victory tiebreaker that MIN currently leads).
Teams eliminated from #1 seed contention: Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Chicago
- Green bay is eliminated from contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Dallas is eliminated from contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Detroit is eliminated from contention with a loss and a PHI win

Controls own destiny for 1st round bye: Philadelphia, Minnesota
- Carolina can gain control of their own destiny with a win, MIN loss, and LAR loss
Teams eliminated from 1st round bye contention: Washington, Chicago, Tampa Bay
- Arizona will be eliminated from contention with a loss or a MIN win
- Dallas will be eliminated from contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Green Bay will be eliminated from contention with a loss

Has clinched division: None
- Philadelphia clinches the NFC East with a win or a Dallas loss
Controls own destiny for division: Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle
- Seattle loses control of their own destiny with a loss and a LAR win
- The loser of the Carolina vs. New Orleans game will lose control of their own destiny.
- Atlanta loses control of their own destiny with a loss and a CAR win.
Has been eliminated from divisional contention:Washington, Tampa Bay, Chicago
- Dallas will be eliminated from divisional contention with a loss or a PHI win
- Arizona will be eliminated from divisional contention with a loss

Has clinched a wild card spot: None
Controls own destiny for a playoff spot: Philadelphia, Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Los Angeles, Seattle
- Seattle loses control of their own destiny with a loss, LAR win and a DET win
- Detroit gains control of their own destiny with (1)a win, (2)SEA or LAR loss, and (3)a NO loss
Elimination Scenarios
- Chicago is eliminated with a loss, SEA win, or an ATL + CAR win

 

[spintheblackcircle]

It will happen against either/or the Falcons or the Panthers, but Case Keenum is due to turn into Case Keenum again.

 

[Reality Check]

Not that I have any faith in the Lions whatsoever. Nor do I believe they should be in the playoffs over the third place in the NFC South. But I'm not about to rule out the possibility of them running the table.

Biggest roadblock is next week at Baltimore. Of course, Aaron Rodgers will return by week 17 to crush their dreams even if everything falls in place. That or Brett Hundley.

 

[Avs_19]

It will happen against either/or the Falcons or the Panthers, but Case Keenum is due to turn into Case Keenum again.

Good thing they have Teddy Bridgewater waiting to go in if/when that happens.

Not that I have any faith in the Lions whatsoever. Nor do I believe they should be in the playoffs over the third place in the NFC South. But I'm not about to rule out the possibility of them running the table.

Biggest roadblock is next week at Baltimore. Of course, Aaron Rodgers will return by week 17 to crush their dreams even if everything falls in place. That or Brett Hundley.

Packers are done so they won't rush Rodgers back for meaningless games.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Good thing they have Teddy Bridgewater waiting to go in if/when that happens.
.

Is he any better?

 

[What the Faulk]

Is that a serious question? I mean, we don't know how he is after a year+ off, but yeah, he's better than Case Keenum.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

Some fun with the Playoff Machine

#1 PHI (13-3), #2 MIN (12-4)

#3 NO (12-4) vs. #6 ATL (11-5)
#4 SEA (12-4) vs. #5 LA (12-4)

11-5 Panthers and 10-6 Lions miss out while the 9-7 Ravens make it in the AFC

NFC Tiebreakers

• 2nd Seed - Minnesota
  NFC North Champ
  Wins tie break over Seattle and New Orleans based on best win percentage in common games (minimum of four).
• 3rd Seed - New Orleans
  NFC South Champ
  Wins tie break over Seattle based on best win percentage in common games.
• 4th Seed - Seattle
  NFC West Champ (Wins tie break over Los Angeles based on head-to-head win percentage.)
• 6th Seed - Atlanta
  Wins tie break over Carolina based on best win percentage in division games.

Feel like I'm overrating Seattle but I gave them venue wins over PHI (Eagles have to lose sometime right?) and LA. Road wins @JAX and a spiraling Dallas team and then a home win Week 17 vs Arizona. They could go 1-4 as easily as 5-0 though.

Keeping every other pick the same they need to go at least 4-1 or else Carolina gets in ahead of them.

• If they beat PHI and LA but lose to JAX matchups stay the same but LA is #3 and SEA is #6. NO vs. ATL is now the 4-5 game. Same goes if they beat LA and JAX but lose to PHI or win all 3 of those games but slip up against DAL or ARZ.
• If they beat PHI and JAX but lose to LA, the Rams jump to #2 and SEA is the 6 against #3 MIN in a rematch of the Blair Walsh game.

 

[What the Faulk]

I don't know why people keep thinking Seattle is going to go undefeated the rest of the way

 

[BrindamoursNose]

I don't know why people keep thinking Seattle is going to go undefeated the rest of the way

They're playing Philly, so they should be very worried about losing.

Philly's the real deal and it blows my mind to say that.

 

[What the Faulk]

They're in for a rough time in Jacksonville too. RIP Russell.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

Which is why I said they could easily go 1-4 too. But when you're just picking game by game your not thinking about them winning 5 in a row.

Like when we do that predictor site at the beginning of the year and everyone has multiple teams at like 14-2 and 1-15 or the Patriots 16-0. Or some team you don't think is that good in the playoffs.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Is that a serious question? I mean, we don't know how he is after a year+ off, but yeah, he's better than Case Keenum.

Bridgewater's last year, two years ago now

65%
3231 yards
14 td
9 int
88.7 rating

Keenum this year so far
66%
2476 yards
14 td
5 int
96.2 rating

I mean....is he better now after missing 2 years?

 

[What the Faulk]

Two years ago Diggs was a rookie that started 9 games and Thielen barely saw the field. I'll give you we don't know how he'll respond after the injury, but in general talent, yeah Bridgewater is better and it's not really close.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

He also had 1500 yard-Adrian Peterson, not the stiffs that Keenum has played with this year.