NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[Baxterman]

Nice to see Detroit loses all the H2H against the teams that could get them in the play-offs if tied but lead the H2H that will have them drafting later if they end up tied. That seems about par for the course for the Lions.

 

[DoyleG]

Seattle on -2 against the Rams

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Carolina laughably opened -1 at home to the Packers. That quickly got bet up to -3, which should honestly be the baseline.

If #12 is back for Green Bay, this becomes must-see football.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Official playoff scenarios for week 15: NFL Week 15 playoff-clinching scenarios

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia clinches homefield advantage throughout NFC playoffs:
1) PHI win + MIN loss
Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:
1) PHI win
2) PHI tie + LAR loss or tie + NO loss or tie + CAR loss or tie

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota clinches NFC North Division:
1) MIN win or tie
2) DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie
Minnesota clinches a playoff berth:
1) SEA loss + ATL loss + NO loss
2) SEA loss + ATL loss + CAR loss
3) SEA loss + ATL loss + DET loss or tie
4) SEA loss + ATL tie + NO loss + DET loss or tie
5) SEA loss + ATL tie + NO loss + CAR loss

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams clinch a playoff berth:
LAR win + DET loss or tie + GB loss or tie + NO loss + ATL loss

 

[Canada4Gold]

Fairly simple NFC scenarios this week as well, outside of a longer list of ARI ones. MIN scenarios were also interesting. Despite there really being 5 playoff clinching scenarios(in addition to the 2 division clinching ones) #3, and 4 weren't really necessary. If both the SEA loss + ATL loss and SEA loss + ATL tie + NO loss cases a CAR loss clinches it, if that doesn't happen then a CAR win/tie is implied(otherwise it falls under 2 or 5) which could also be written as a GB loss/tie. Looking up to the division scenarios GB loss/tie + DET loss/tie is a division(and thus obviously playoff clinching too) scenario. Thus in those scenarios without CAR losses, a DET loss/tie clinches the division as it's in addition to a GB loss/tie(which is we don't have, again it falls under 2 or 5) so they aren't really necessary to list under the playoff scenarios as they're combined redundant to the playoff and division clinching scenarios. The reddit guy didn't list them, the NFL guy did for clarity as it's not abundantly obvious. I'll leave them in the OP.

Anyway here are the elimination scenarios in addition to the clinching ones, all added to the OP

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is eliminated from the playoffs with:
1. DAL loss + NO win/tie + CAR win/tie + ATL win

Detroit Lions
Detroit is eliminated from the playoffs with:
1. DET loss + CAR win/tie + ATL win

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is eliminated from the playoffs with:
1. GB loss + ATL win

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is eliminated from the playoffs with:
1. ARI loss
2. ARI tie + SEA tie
3. ARI tie + DAL win/tie
4. ARI tie + ATL win/tie
5. ARI tie + DET win + GB win/tie
6. ARI tie + DET tie + GB win
7. SEA win
8. SEA tie + DAL win
9. CAR win/tie + ATL win

 

[misterchainsaw]

Yeah, I just updated the tie free scenarios, and NO has already clinched strength of victory vs. both Green Bay and Detroit at 9-7, so the NO win is not necessary in either of their elimination scenarios.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Hopefully CAR wins next week, SEA loses this week, and next, ATL loses this week, but beats NO next week. DAL loses this week, DET loses next week, MIN loses next week, and the Rams lose next week. That would set it up so that CAR controls their destiny for the division and the 2nd seed and bye with a win against Atlanta. While Atlanta locks up a WC spot and only has the 5th or 6th seed to play for, but only if NO loses to Tampa(they won't) so Atlanta can rest their starters knowing they're pretty much locked into the 6 seed.

 

[Halladay]

The Eagles clinched a bye.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Rams and Hawks losing was very helpful. 1 more loss from ATL, SEA, or LAR(except LAR losing to SEA) will make 11-5 safe.

SEA loss, thus 1 more win/tie is good for CAR. Not overly concerned about 5th seed v. 6th seed. I'm assuming we can manage 1 more win/tie especially since we're playing Tampa this week, so I'm all in cheering for the Falcons next week. Hopefully they lose tomorrow night though.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

So essentially:

Dallas needs 2 wins, 1 Lions loss and 2 losses from 1 of the 3 NFC South teams.

Detroit needs 2 wins and 2 losses from 1 of the 3 NFC South teams. However, if it's the Saints or Panthers that lose those 2 games, DET needs DAL to be 10-6 too to negate the head-to-head tie-breaker NO and CAR have. DET would grab a WC spot due to conference record in those scenarios.

A 3-way ATL-DET-DAL 10-6 tie still goes ATL's way due to conference record.

 

[GKJ]

Nice to see Detroit loses all the H2H against the teams that could get them in the play-offs if tied but lead the H2H that will have them drafting later if they end up tied. That seems about par for the course for the Lions.

It’s typical Lions. They beat most of the teams they should, but never any one that is good. The Lions beat the Vikings 14-7 before Keenum was the starter, I think that’s Stafford’s first win against a playoff team.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Tentative scenarios for next week. Atlanta result tomorrow in brackets where necessary

Philadelphia Eagles
PHI clinch home field with...
- PHI win
- PHI tie + MIN tie
- MIN loss

Minnesota Vikings
MIN clinch bye with...
- MIN win + CAR loss/tie
- MIN tie + CAR loss + LAR loss/tie + NO loss/tie

Los Angeles Rams
LAR clinch division with...
- LAR win/tie
- SEA loss/tie

LAR clinch playoffs with...
- (ATL loss)DET loss/tie + ATL loss/tie
- (ATL loss)DET loss/tie + CAR loss
- (ATL tie)DET loss/tie + ATL loss
- (ATL tie)DET loss/tie + ATL tie + CAR loss
- (ATL win)DET loss/tie + ATL loss + CAR loss

New Orleans Saints
NO clinch division with...
- NO win + CAR loss

NO clinch playoffs with...
- NO win/tie
- SEA tie
- (ATL loss)DET loss/tie + CAR loss

Carolina Panthers
CAR clinch playoffs with...
- CAR win/tie
- SEA tie
- (ATL loss)ATL loss/tie + DET loss/tie
- (ATL tie)ATL loss + DET loss/tie

Atlanta Falcons
ATL clinch playoffs with...
- (ATL tie)ATL win + SEA tie + DET loss/tie
- (ATL win)ATL win
- (ATL win)ATL tie + SEA tie + DET loss/tie

Dallas Cowboys
DAL eliminated with...
- (ATL win)DAL loss
- (ATL win)DAL tie + ATL win/tie
- (ATL tie)DAL loss + ATL win/tie
- (ATL loss/tie)DAL loss + DET loss/tie
- (ATL loss/tie)DAL loss + GB win
- (ATL tie)DAL tie + ATL win
- (ATL loss)DAL loss + ATL win

Seattle Seahawks
SEA eliminated with...
- (ATL win)SEA loss
- (ATL win)SEA tie + ATL win/tie
- (ATL tie)SEA loss + ATL win/tie
- (ATL tie)SEA tie + ATL win
- (ATL loss/tie)SEA loss + DET loss/tie
- (ATL loss/tie)SEA loss + GB win
- (ATL loss/tie)SEA loss + WAS win + NYG win + OAK win + 4 or more wins from (KC, JAC, TEN, BAL, PIT)
- (ATL loss/tie)SEA loss + KC win + JAC win + TEN win + BAL win + PIT win + 2.5 wins from (WAS, NYG, OAK)
- (ATL loss)SEA loss + ATL win

Detroit Lions
DET eliminated with...
- (ATL win)DET loss
- (ATL win)DET tie + ATL win/tie
- (ATL win)ATL win + SEA tie
- (ATL tie)DET loss + ATL win/tie
- (ATL tie)DET tie + ATL win
- (ATL loss)DET loss + ATL win

Green Bay Packers
GB eliminated with...
- (ATL win)
- (ATL tie)GB loss/tie
- (ATL tie)ATL win/tie
- (ATL loss)GB loss
- (ATL loss)GB tie + ATL tie
- (ATL loss)ATL win
- GB tie + DAL win
- GB tie + SEA win
- GB tie + DET win/tie

 

[misterchainsaw]

Its really remarkable how dominant Atlanta's tiebreakers are for the wild card. They've beaten every team beneath them that's still alive head to head, and if LA falls apart and falls into a potential tiebreaker (the one team Atlanta can still tie with that they haven't beaten), Atlanta won't lose conference record tiebreakers either.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

It’s typical Lions. They beat most of the teams they should, but never any one that is good. The Lions beat the Vikings 14-7 before Keenum was the starter, I think that’s Stafford’s first win against a playoff team.

Keenum started that game. It was his 3rd start. The Lions took the lead that day after Cook tore his acl and fumbled.

 

[GKJ]

Keenum started that game. It was his 3rd start. The Lions took the lead that day after Cook tore his acl and fumbled.

I thought that was the game Bradford got hurt. Whoops.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

So Rams, Saints, Panthers and Falcons will have a win and you are in scenario on Saturday.

Panthers @ Falcons looking like the SNF Week 17 game to me.

 

[hockeykicker]

that all but eliminates dallas

 

[hockeykicker]

So Rams, Saints, Panthers and Falcons will have a win and you are in scenario on Saturday.

Panthers @ Falcons looking like the SNF Week 17 game to me.

that or jags/titans

 

[Canada4Gold]

Updated after Week 15

1. z - PHI 12-2
2. y - MIN 11-3
3. LAR 10-4
4. NO 10-4
-------------
5. CAR 10-4
6. ATL 9-5
-------------
7. DET 8-6
8. SEA 8-6
9. DAL 8-6
-------------
10. GB 7-7
11. WSH 6-8
11. ARI 6-8
13. TB 4-10
14. SF 4-10
15. CHI 4-10
16. NYG 2-12

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched division
z - clinched 1st round bye
h - clinched home field through NFC championship

Philadelphia Eagles
PHI clinch home field with...
- PHI win
- PHI tie + MIN tie
- MIN loss

Minnesota Vikings
MIN clinch bye with...
- MIN win + CAR loss/tie
- MIN tie + CAR loss + NO loss/tie + LAR loss/tie

Los Angeles Rams
LAR clinch division with...
- LAR win/tie
- SEA loss/tie

LAR clinch playoffs with...
- DET loss/tie + ATL loss + CAR loss

New Orleans Saints
NO clinch division with...
- NO win + CAR loss

NO clinch playoffs with...
- NO win/tie
- SEA tie

Carolina Panthers
CAR clinch playoffs with...
- CAR win/tie
- SEA tie

Atlanta Falcons
ATL clinch playoffs with...
- ATL win
- ATL tie + SEA tie + DET loss/tie

Dallas Cowboys
DAL eliminated with...
- DAL loss
- DAL tie + ATL win/tie

Detroit Lions
DET eliminated with...
- DET loss
- DET tie + ATL win/tie
- ATL win + SEA tie

Seattle Seahawks
SEA eliminated with...
- SEA loss
- SEA tie + ATL win/tie

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

I'd be very surprised if NBC showed that Jags-Titans game. Two small markets. Few 'stars'.

 

[hockeykicker]

I'd be very surprised if NBC showed that Jags-Titans game. Two small markets. Few 'stars'.

But both Carolina and Atlanta could already be clinched by next week.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Expecting Jacksonville to lock the division up this week, and then barring a NE or PIT loss it'll be meaningless for them. ATL/CAR will have NO implications as well, if NO wins next week then it's likely NO's division, CAR is likely a WC, and Atlanta could be playing for their life. But if neither of DET, DAL, SEA win out then it'd basically be meaningless for both teams beside 5 or 6 WC seeding.

Depending on how next week goes BUF/MIA could potentially be a win and you're in game, but Miami would also require week 17 results and that's a tangled WC situation over there so not sure they'd single that one out as the late game.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

But both Carolina and Atlanta could already be clinched by next week.

Sure but...

IF CAR beats TB (should happen)

And ATL beats NO (doubt it)

Then CAR @ ATL is for the division title even with both teams having clinched playoff spots.

If ATL loses in NO, then ATL is most likely playing for a WC berth on SNF. DET and DAL should win their final 2 games (I see Eagles resting their starters vs DAL and no way Rodgers plays in DET), so at least 1 would be alive.

NBC's other options:

Can't go Dallas @ Philly with Cowboys needing a ton of help to get in and unlikely to get it.

No way they show the Dolphins AGAIN even if it's win and you are in for BUF.

Raiders @ Chargers...maybe. But LAC needs a ton go to their way for that game to matter.

Does anyone want to see the quitting Bengals @ Ravens?

 

[Datsyukian Deke]

It’s typical Lions. They beat most of the teams they should, but never any one that is good. The Lions beat the Vikings 14-7 before Keenum was the starter, I think that’s Stafford’s first win against a playoff team.

Even if the Lions back into the playoffs for a 2nd straight year, only to get embarrassed yet again, Caldwell still needs to go, first & foremost. Quinn needs to do what he should have done on day 1, and bring in his own guy.

 

[rangerssharks414]

So Rams, Saints, Panthers and Falcons will have a win and you are in scenario on Saturday.

Panthers @ Falcons looking like the SNF Week 17 game to me.

All of the divisions could be wrapped up by Monday, right? If so, I expect Cowboys vs. Eagles on Sunday night.