NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,973
9,179
Entering Week 17:

1. h - PHI 13-2
2. y - MIN 12-3
3. y - LAR 11-4
4. x - NO 11-4
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5. x - CAR 11-4
6. ATL 9-6
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7. SEA 9-6
-------------
8. DET 8-7
9. DAL 8-7
10. GB 7-8
11. WSH 7-8
12. ARI 7-8
13. CHI 5-10
14. SF 5-10
13. TB 4-11
16. NYG 2-13

x - clinched playoff spot
y - clinched division
z - clinched 1st round bye
h - clinched home field through NFC championship

Philadelphia Eagles
PHI is locked into the 1 seed

Minnesota Vikings
MIN is the 2 seed with...
- MIN win/tie
- CAR loss/tie
- LAR win
- NO win

MIN is the 3 seed with...
- MIN loss + CAR win + NO loss/tie + LAR loss/tie

New Orleans Saints
NO clinches the division with...
- NO win
- NO tie + CAR tie
- CAR loss

NO is the 3 seed with...
- NO win + LAR loss/tie
- NO tie + CAR loss/tie + LAR loss

NO is the 4 seed with...
- NO win + LAR win
- NO tie + CAR loss/tie + LAR win/tie
- NO loss + CAR loss

NO is the 5 seed with...
- NO tie + CAR win
- NO loss + CAR win/tie

Los Angeles Rams
LAR is the 3 seed with...
- LAR win
- LAR tie + NO loss/tie + CAR loss/tie
- NO loss + CAR loss

LAR is the 4 seed with...
- LAR tie + NO win
- LAR tie + CAR win
- LAR loss + NO win/tie
- LAR loss + CAR win/tie

Carolina Panthers
CAR clinches the division with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie
- CAR tie + NO loss

CAR is the 2 seed with
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN loss + LAR loss/tie

CAR is the 3 seed with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN win/tie + LAR loss/tie
- CAR tie + NO loss + LAR loss

CAR is the 4 seed with...
- CAR win + NO loss/tie + MIN win/tie + LAR win
- CAR tie + NO loss + LAR win/tie

CAR is the 5 seed with...
- CAR loss
- CAR tie + NO tie
- NO win

Atlanta Falcons
ATL clinches the 6 seed with...
- ATL win
- ATL tie + SEA tie
- SEA loss

Seattle Seahawks
SEA clinches the 6 seed with...
- SEA win + ATL loss/tie
- SEA tie + ATL loss

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Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,973
9,179
Not going to toss up the AFC one just yet since I don't believe the Browns can be eliminated just yet, but if someone else wants to go for it then feel free.

edit: Scratch that, only fair to put them up at the same time. But that one will definitely be premature.
 

Halladay

Registered User
Feb 27, 2009
65,105
7,804
H Town
Thinks the Birds need to go 4-3 to get a 1st round bye. Have a tough schedule, but they have the ability to have lengthen their lead with games against LA, Seattle, and Dallas.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina


PFF posted their rest of season predictions last week and they had Carolina ending up with 10.7 wins and a 2 seed facing MIA, @NYJ, @No, MIN, GB, TB, @ATL. The way the defense is playing, they can hang with anyone, but hopefully the focus shifting to McCaffrey in the backfield lasts so the offense can hold up their end of the bargain.
 

Howe Elbows 9

Registered User
Sep 16, 2007
3,833
378
Sweden
NFC playoff predictions featuring the info listed in the link above;

Philadelphia: 11.9 wins
Carolina: 10.7 wins
Seattle: 10.0 wins
Minnesota: 9.9 wins
---
Atlanta: 9.6 wins
LA Rams: 9.6 wins
------
Dallas: 9.1 wins
Green Bay: 8.8 wins
New Orleans: 8.7 wins
 

tony d

Registered User
Jun 23, 2007
76,589
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Behind A Tree
Should be a fun race as always to the final few weeks of the season to see who makes the playoffs in both conferences. Think Philly gets the top seed in the NFC. 2-6 is anyone's guess right now.
 

darko

Registered User
Feb 16, 2009
70,265
7,786
Thinks the Birds need to go 4-3 to get a 1st round bye. Have a tough schedule, but they have the ability to have lengthen their lead with games against LA, Seattle, and Dallas.


You better beat LA and Seattle.
 

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,973
9,179
For those that care(probably nobody except me, because 1. it's SF, 2. ties), these are the comprehensive SF elimination scenarios, that like I mentioned all but the simplest involve a SF tie. Someone else figured them out(and someone else is in the process of checking them/doing their own and comparing), it was too complex for me. Not shockingly the sparse ones I had above were wrong, SEA result isn't a necessity. ARI winning is in more scenarios.

  • SF loss
  • SF tie + DAL win + CAR win/tie + WAS win + ARI win/tie
  • SF tie + DAL win + CAR win/tie + NO win/tie + WAS tie + ARI win
  • SF tie + DAL win + CAR win/tie + NO win/tie + WAS tie + LAR win/tie
  • SF tie + DAL win + CAR win/tie + NO win/tie + SEA win + LAR win/tie
  • SF tie + DAL win + CAR win/tie + GB win + DET win + TB win + WAS tie + ARI win
  • SF tie + DAL win + CAR win/tie + GB win + DET win + TB win + WAS tie + LAR win/tie
  • SF tie + DAL win + CAR win/tie + GB win + DET win + TB win + SEA win + LAR win/tie
  • SF tie + DAL tie + WAS win + CAR win/tie + LAR win/tie
  • SF tie + DAL tie + WAS win + GB win + DET win + TB win + LAR win/tie
 
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Halladay

Registered User
Feb 27, 2009
65,105
7,804
H Town
So the Saints, Vikings, and Rams all improved to 7-2. The Vikings host the Rams next week. Dallas playoff inspirations took a hit with a loss to Atlanta, while the Falcons desperately needed that win. Green Bay won, and they should win 3 out of their next 4 games.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
I don't see a path to the playoffs for GB. The NFC is too good. Dallas also looks out based on that performance against another struggling team. I think the 6 teams will come from Philadelphia, New Orleans, Los Angeles, Minnesota, Carolina, Seattle, and Atlanta.
 
Mar 1, 2002
66,102
12,072
The only good thing about Atlanta being 5-4 is that 3 of their losses are against the AFC East and they beat the Packers, Cowboys and Lions should they end up tied at the end of the year.

Plus, they have 5 divisional games left. It's all on them. Zero excuses.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
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North Carolina
I could see 3 teams coming out of the NFC South if Seattle's injuries catch up to them, otherwise I think it might come down to the division paring itself down, with the Saints having a leg up as the best team (so far).
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
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North Carolina
Yeah, that would put them in a tough spot, but Seattle looks like they've got a tough schedule down the stretch. I think 10 wins is the magic number.
 

Kyle McMahon

Registered User
May 10, 2006
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Yeah, that would put them in a tough spot, but Seattle looks like they've got a tough schedule down the stretch. I think 10 wins is the magic number.

10 wins looks doable for Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Detroit, and Dallas (and obviously New Orelans, LA, Minnesota, and Philadelphia). Obviously not all of them are going to hit 10 wins, but I think we could definitely see a 10-win team miss out on a tie-breaker. The Atlanta-Seattle game next week is huge. If Atlanta wins, 10 wins would almost certainly be enough for them (they'd have tiebreaker with SEA, DAL, and DET). If Seattle wins, Atlanta is probably left hoping for a winner-take-all season finale against Carolina.
 

What the Faulk

You'll know when you go
May 30, 2005
42,121
3,851
North Carolina
10 wins looks doable for Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Detroit, and Dallas (and obviously New Orelans, LA, Minnesota, and Philadelphia). Obviously not all of them are going to hit 10 wins, but I think we could definitely see a 10-win team miss out on a tie-breaker. The Atlanta-Seattle game next week is huge. If Atlanta wins, 10 wins would almost certainly be enough for them (they'd have tiebreaker with SEA, DAL, and DET). If Seattle wins, Atlanta is probably left hoping for a winner-take-all season finale against Carolina.

Without looking at the schedules too much, there are a lot of instances where these teams still play each other. I suppose many of them do involve the division leaders who can afford to pick up a few losses, but I would be surprised if more than one team is left out with 10 wins. Either way, down the stretch in the NFC is going to be fun as hell. It seems like there's a least one big game every week.
 

Reality Check

Registered User
May 28, 2008
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Detroit is already finished with the supposed difficult part of the schedule prior to this season. So much that I believe they have the easiest schedule remaining.

That said, they're the Lions and I still believe if they get in, they will have to win the division.
 

Kyle McMahon

Registered User
May 10, 2006
13,301
4,352
Without looking at the schedules too much, there are a lot of instances where these teams still play each other. I suppose many of them do involve the division leaders who can afford to pick up a few losses, but I would be surprised if more than one team is left out with 10 wins. Either way, down the stretch in the NFC is going to be fun as hell. It seems like there's a least one big game every week.

More than one 10-win team missing out would probably take a perfect storm of results, yes. But a single 10-win team missing seems more likely than not in my estimation.
 

Marc the Habs Fan

Moderator
Nov 30, 2002
98,346
10,386
Longueuil
1. PHI 8-1
2. MIN 7-2
3. NOR 7-2
4. LAR 7-2
5. CAR 7-3
6. SEA 6-3
--
ATL 5-4
DET 5-4
GB 5-4
DAL 5-4

It feels like it will be a great race right now but if the Seahawks beat the Falcons next Monday and the Cowboys lose to the Eagles on Sunday, that puts both teams 2 games out of the playoffs with 6 to play. ATL would have lost the tie-breaker vs SEA, so effectively 3 games out. Massive weekend.
 

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,973
9,179
I don't know if this is true, or if it just feels this way for me as a Panthers fan, but it feels like our tiebreakers suck every year. This year we're unlikely to win the conference record tiebreaker against any team(3-0 in non conference games with a game to come against the Jets), we've lost to Philly, and won't play Seattle, LA, or Arizona. Have the h2h against the Lions, and still play the Packers and Vikings, as well as potentially being able to win all divisional tiebreakers yet. But it feels like every year we get down to it, and the Panthers always seems to have to win it outright because we lose the tiebreakers, maybe it's just me, and that's not actually true IDK.
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
25,591
9,425
So do the Rams. Really hoping we can take it now that the Seahawks and injured and have a tough one too.
Both team have tough schedules.

Rams still have the Vikings, top level D, on the road. Saints at home. Eagles at home and then at the Seahawks. 4 of their next 5 are very tough. For the Rams, the division likely comes down to that game in Seattle. Seattle sweeps the season series and the Rams have to finish 1 game ahead to take the division.

Seattle has Atlanta at home, home to Eagles, at Jax (tough D on the DL, which is the achilles heal of the Hawks offence). Hawks D needs to be able to stop the run and make Bortles beat them. Still have Rams and Cowboys. Dallas, who knows what they will be at week 16. Winnable games after the game against Philly next week, against LAC, Was, NYG, Oak.

Never know about injuries.
 

Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,973
9,179
The NFC is going to be a mess man. I just ran down through a playoff machine inputing the results I thought would happen and the Panthers ended up missing the playoffs with an 11-5 record, it's still possible for there to be 11 teams in the NFC that end up 11-5 all at the same time and while that's obviously not going to happen it wouldn't surprise me in the least if 10 wins isn't enough for anyone. I could see all 4 divisions and both WC's taking 11 or more to make it.

Meanwhile I'm expecting the AFC 2nd WC to have like 7 or 8 wins.
 

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