Hart Trophy Power Rankings: McDavid reigns despite Draisaitl's surge
Hart Trophy Power Rankings: McDavid reigns despite Draisaitl's surge
Taking analytics into discussion
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#2. Draisaitl continues to lead in the "Rocket" Richard and Art Ross Trophy races, and there's no denying his immense talent. However, the German has an absurd shooting percentage of 27.8% in 2021-22, which will surely regress as the season goes on. He's also scored half of his goals on the power play.
His underlying numbers at five-on-five also remain largely unfavorable
. The 26-year-old has a commendable goals for percentage in those situations (63.89), but his subpar expected goals for percentage indicates an inability to drive possession. In addition, the Oilers aren't controlling the share of scoring chances with Draisaitl on the ice at five-on-five, earning only 45.34% of them.
Draisaitl's analytic figures without McDavid are even worse. The 2019-20 Hart Trophy winner has a 42.76 xGF% and a 41.72% SCF% while playing without the Edmonton captain at five-on-five. Draisaitl is undoubtedly one of the NHL's most valuable players, but a closer look at numbers beyond just goals and points clearly indicates he's still not the Hart frontrunner."
"#1 McDavid Draisaitl has been producing at a higher rate than McDavid since the start of November, but the latter superstar remains the NHL's most valuable player for several reasons.
Firstly, the Oilers are better with just McDavid on the ice than they are with only Draisaitl at five-on-five. In contrast to Edmonton's paltry xGF and SCF percentages with Draisaitl and without McDavid, the team is driving possession at rates above 50% when the two-time MVP is playing without his older teammate.
Draisaitl deserves credit for his stellar production while logging a bit more ice time, but McDavid has been more effective by just about any analytic measure. The 24-year-old has favorable xGF and SCF percentages on an individual basis in addition to his superior numbers in the with-and-without comparison.
McDavid also boasts the NHL's best individual expected goals rate in all situations and one of the league's top ixG figures at five-on-five, while Draisaitl sits 94th in the latter. So while Draisaitl's counting stats are superior, McDavid has consistently proved he has a greater impact on his team's ability to control the play and create more scoring opportunities, thereby demonstrating his superior value."
