Moritz Seider

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RedHawkDown

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I’m not sure what you mean by control the game from the back end. Because as it is right now, Colorado’s entire game plan runs through Makar. He absolutely dictates the pace of every game from the back end.

And he’s way, way better than karlsson ever was defensively
 

brakeyawself

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Yeah I’d say he’s as good as Pietrangelo defensively and significantly better offensively. Again I still don’t get what issues you think he has defensively? If he was 6’2” would you have the same impression?


Scott Stevens is a great example. Only 6'2 and he could take his defensive game to that level.
 

brakeyawself

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I’m not sure what you mean by control the game from the back end. Because as it is right now, Colorado’s entire game plan runs through Makar. He absolutely dictates the pace of every game from the back end.

And he’s way, way better than karlsson ever was defensively

I would say, up until last season, Makar was on par with Karlsson at his best. But probably starting last season, he did surpass him. Right now, correcting for difference in era, overall game, style, speed everything like that, I kind of like the Leetch comparison. Actually, for Makar and Fox both, whom I believe are pretty close. I would have to give Makar the edge long term as I think he hasn't reached his ceiling and this season it's closer since he's improved more. Leetch was an out of this world skater and really out of this world abilities in general. And a terrific defensive dman. But he wasn't a dominating, shut down Dman.

It's hard to judge players defense wholly on statistics and without factoring in team and partner. But just in general, Makar is terrific at the possession game, which is pretty significant in today's hockey. Obviously if you can keep the puck away from the other team it's going to be extremely difficult for them to score. He skates around with the puck playing keep away or pushing it or passing out of the zone with the best of them. And surely, he's becoming one of the best in the league at that. As you suggested they run the game through him and he dictates pace, going forward. Once they have possession.

This season, I think one of the main things that's allowed them to do that is having him paired with Toews, they really are one of the best pairs in the league if not the best combined pair. And I don't want to underrate Toews' contribution. I think on many other teams, Toews right now would be his teams top Dman and they'd run the game through him. There have been games where, IMO, Toews has looked like the best defender on the Avs, other games where Makar has. Probably more for Makar. But it's really a two headed beast when they are out there. And I am not saying Toews is on Makar's level. But he's world's better than Rutta or whomever Doughty has to partner with this week. And that clearly has an effect on their respective game play.

I think where Makar still needs to grow and where he's behind guys like Hedman is when the other team does have the puck and is pressuring in the defensive zone. Which he will have to deal with in the playoffs and with playoff style hockey. And that's where I think guys like Hedman, Lidstrom, Pronger, generally shine. It might have something to do with size. But I don't think it's dependent upon size. Letang for instance only 6'. Rangers Lindgren I think is terrific in own zone and he's only 6'. Makar has only really started putting himself in front of shots this season. And he obviously doesn't play as physical of a game. Not that you need "bone crushing" hits. But just jarring the opponent in general, putting your body in front of their path, crashing the boards, getting on top of guys, smothering them, getting physical around the net etc... That, IMO, is why if you look at most of the Stanley Cup teams and winners, they generally have a Defender who can really take over on the back end physically when the other team has the puck in your zone. And that's when guys like Pietrangelo, Doughty, Hedman etc.. take over. Maybe Makar will. But playoff hockey isn't going to allow him to just maintain possession and skate around everyone.

And I think that's the major difference right now. Makar can get away with dominating on possession during the regular season but I am curious to see how he will handle the more physical, lower scoring, sometimes slower playoff/finals gameplay. Because that's when guys like Hedman and Doughty are at their best. And Makar won't be able to get away with just keeping the puck or playing a heavy possession game. He will have way more pressure on him. Maybe this is where size will come into the picture more also. But that's when he'll need to get in front of shots, when he will need to smother the opposition forwards. And maybe he will take that leap. But right now, I just don't think he's at that level defensively, as a complete Dman. And that's what an elite Dman does. And it's why I would rather have that level of Dman in the NHL, if your goal is to win a Cup. And it's extraordinarily difficult to win in the playoffs, let alone going all the way, without that.

We can argue back and forth about Makar or Hedman or whomever, but I don't think there is much doubt that Makar-Toews duo is just sick. Unfortunately, Hedman doesn't have the greatest partner in Rutta. He's good enough, but that's about it. Hedman has to do a lot on his own which I think is wearing on him this season especially as he's getting older and as the season goes on. Rutta is ok, but he's nowhere near the kind of player Toews has become and he doesn't help Hedman nearly as much as Toews helps Makar and vice versa. Yet I would say Hedman-Rutta is right up there near the top also. If Hedman had a partner like Toews, or even like Lindgren or Weeger or some of the sidekicks to the leagues other top defenseman, I don't think even Makar-Toews would be able to keep up. Hedman really has to take on so much responsibility.

I would say Doughty though, is probably up there as one of the most complete and best D in the league. Maybe even better defensively than Hedman, but not quite as good offensively. But I think they're close. Doughty, this season at least, has also had a bit too much responsibility and his partners not quite up to snuff.
 
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Henkka

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I think where Makar still needs to grow and where he's behind guys like Hedman is when the other team does have the puck and is pressuring in the defensive zone. Which he will have to deal with in the playoffs and with playoff style hockey. And that's where I think guys like Hedman, Lidstrom, Pronger, generally shine. It might have something to do with size.

That, IMO, is why if you look at most of the Stanley Cup teams and winners, they generally have a Defender who can really take over on the back end physically when the other team has the puck in your zone. And that's when guys like Pietrangelo, Doughty, Hedman etc.. take over. Maybe Makar will. But playoff hockey isn't going allow him to just maintain possession and skate around everyone.

And I think that's the major difference right now. Makar can get away with dominating on possession but I am curious to see how he will handle the more physical, lower scoring, sometimes slower playoff/finals gameplay. Because that's when guys like Hedman and Doughty are at their best. And Makar won't be able to get away with just keeping the puck or playing a heavy possession game. He will have way more pressure on him. Maybe this is where size will come into the picture more also. But that's when he'll need to get in front of shots, when he will need to smother the opposition forwards. And maybe he will take that leap. But right now, I just don't think he's at that level defensively, as a complete Dman.

Absolutely great writeup, the whole post. Agree 100% with all.

Many of these possession-monsters have great data, but also inflated data too. They basicly play against ~28 easy teams, beat them totally during regular season, which will inflate the stats. At Conference finals (if not busting earlier), they are there on the mix with Best 4 playoff teams left.

Then they lose at Conference finals, when the Best overall, big-sized and physical defences - with skill - come against.
 
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brakeyawself

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Absolutely great writeup, the whole post. Agree 100% with all.

Many of these possession-monsters have great data, but also inflated data too. They basicly play against ~28 easy teams, beat them totally during regular season, which will inflate the stats. At Conference finals (if not busting earlier), they are there on the mix with Best 4 playoff teams left.

Then they lose at Conference finals, when the Best overall, big-sized and physical defences - with skill - come against.

100% It's what cost the Habs last year, they were lucky to have got to the finals anyway. And I think it's why the Leafs cant take that next step. And why say the Caps weren't able to win more when Ovi and Backstrom etc.. were in their prime. I think this is why we see some teams competing year in year out. Like Vegas and Tampa and now possibly Florida. At least, I think Ekblad this year, maybe because of Weeger, has finally taken a next step. Whether it's enough to get them all the way is TBD. And I think having one of these dominating, complete Dmen is such a huge advantage. Owen Power has a chance to be one of them. And usually, there are only a handful of them in the league at any given time. Or at least, only a handful of them in their prime at any given time. Like right now there are probably a few older ones like Burns and Doughty who aren't quite at their peak anymore.

Burns was another one, all though if I remember correctly he matured a bit late and unfortunately wasn't able to have a complete team to win a cup. They did get to the finals but he wasn't able to beat Hedman.

I really hate how much of a possession/offensive position Dman is becoming in the NHL. Especially with the modern cap. Unless they are really one of the few complete, elite guys, it's just going to clog up cap space. Now I am more talking about a guy like Quinn Hughes than Makar or Fox. I think the latter two are good enough all around, even if not totally elite defensively, to still be worthwhile. But Hughes, ugh... Nucks basically have to pay an entire separate Dman just to make up for what Hughes lacks. And it's skewed people's perceptions of what an elite Dman is to some extent. And then if you don't score like 70 points, many pundits and fans don't even consider you a top D anymore. I think a guy like McAvoy is hurt by this a bit in terms of reputation. To me, he has all these attributes, just not necessarily at the highest level. Like I think he's a complete Dman but not necessarily an elite one. All though time will tell if he can take over games in the defensive zone. But yea, Quinn Hughes to me is everything negative about the modern position. Kid should just be a forward. lol.

As far as the size thing, it clearly helps. But Doughty only 6'1, Letang 6', I think Pulock played that role for the Isles the past couple of years, he's 6'2... which is moderate. Not that he's elite or complete in offensive sense, but on the defensive end he at least cant get them through playoff hockey. Think his absence is a big reason the Isles aren't doing so well this year also. Plus, they kind of lack a possession guy also, so their regular season without having that kind of hard nosed Dman and lacking a possession guy has put light on those holes in their team. Trying to think of some other perennial playoff teams with not huge main Dmen. There's got to be a few more out there I just can't think of. But more than not it does take SOME size. I just don't think it's always dependent upon it. But in place of that size, you need to be really gritty. I think if a guy like Makar or Fox were to turn into that type of elite complete Dman, they are going to need to play more like Letang and Doughty because of their size. Not impossible, just more difficult. All though, for the Rangers at least, I really think Schneider is going to be THAT guy eventually. He's looked SO good on the back end since he got called up.

Anyway, back to the original point. These attributes we are mentioning here, are what I think Seider has and what will really make him special. On top of being a terrific regular season guy, with great offensive ability, instincts, awareness, terrific transition play and possession etc.. he also has the defensive zone game or at least the potential to be a true elite Dman and winner. He just has IT. And a lot of teams need multiple guys to do all these things. They'll need a possession guy and a separate shutdown guy etc.. And that also inhibits their cap space because they have to pay that extra guy. Well, I don't think the Wings will have that issue with Seider. He can do it all and be everything they need him to be in every situation, regular season and playoffs. Add Edvinsson to that eventually and just WOW.

Now I do think Byram could end up being that guy for the Avs ultimately. He won't be the offensive force Makar is. But I think he has say, 40-55 point potential possibly and these physical and defensive attributes to take the team to the next level. Just a matter of him getting more experience.

But having a complete, elite Dman, who is elite or at least near elite in every aspect of the game, gives a team such a HUGE advantage, both on the ice and financially. That players like that are rare and so very very special.
 
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Henkka

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Tampa Bay defence from JFresh player cards (based on WAR-model).

Hedman 99% - Rutta 22% (Bogosian 5%)
McDonagh 87% - Cernak 85%
Sergachev 41% - Foote 39%

What we have is

16% DeKeyser - 93% Seider
14% Staal - 59% Hronek
14% Leddy - 17% Lindström
15% Oesterle

So what we are missing is ~two outsiders.

Seider = "hedman", Hronek could be "sergachev". Also think Lindström could develop to be "foote". Also think Edvinsson is so good, that he'll fill one of "McDonagh or Cernak" -spots in 2-3 years.

Any "Rutta" or "Bogosian" can be found every year, we have currently four of them (DeKeyser, Oesterle, Staal, Leddy) at the roster.
 
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Pavels Dog

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I’m not sure what you mean by control the game from the back end. Because as it is right now, Colorado’s entire game plan runs through Makar. He absolutely dictates the pace of every game from the back end.

And he’s way, way better than karlsson ever was defensively
People talked about Karlsson in the same way. "He doesn't need to defend, he always has the puck and controls the play".
 

RedHawkDown

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Aug 26, 2011
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I would say, up until last season, Makar was on par with Karlsson at his best. But probably starting last season, he did surpass him. Right now, correcting for difference in era, overall game, style, speed everything like that, I kind of like the Leetch comparison. Actually, for Makar and Fox both, whom I believe are pretty close. I would have to give Makar the edge long term as I think he hasn't reached his ceiling and this season it's closer since he's improved more. Leetch was an out of this world skater and really out of this world abilities in general. And a terrific defensive dman. But he wasn't a dominating, shut down Dman.

It's hard to judge players defense wholly on statistics and without factoring in team and partner. But just in general, Makar is terrific at the possession game, which is pretty significant in today's hockey. Obviously if you can keep the puck away from the other team it's going to be extremely difficult for them to score. He skates around with the puck playing keep away or pushing it or passing out of the zone with the best of them. And surely, he's becoming one of the best in the league at that. As you suggested they run the game through him and he dictates pace, going forward. Once they have possession.

This season, I think one of the main things that's allowed them to do that is having him paired with Toews, they really are one of the best pairs in the league if not the best combined pair. And I don't want to underrate Toews' contribution. I think on many other teams, Toews right now would be his teams top Dman and they'd run the game through him. There have been games where, IMO, Toews has looked like the best defender on the Avs, other games where Makar has. Probably more for Makar. But it's really a two headed beast when they are out there. And I am not saying Toews is on Makar's level. But he's world's better than Rutta or whomever Doughty has to partner with this week. And that clearly has an effect on their respective game play.

I think where Makar still needs to grow and where he's behind guys like Hedman is when the other team does have the puck and is pressuring in the defensive zone. Which he will have to deal with in the playoffs and with playoff style hockey. And that's where I think guys like Hedman, Lidstrom, Pronger, generally shine. It might have something to do with size. But I don't think it's dependent upon size. Letang for instance only 6'. Rangers Lindgren I think is terrific in own zone and he's only 6'. Makar has only really started putting himself in front of shots this season. And he obviously doesn't play as physical of a game. Not that you need "bone crushing" hits. But just jarring the opponent in general, putting your body in front of their path, crashing the boards, getting on top of guys, smothering them, getting physical around the net etc... That, IMO, is why if you look at most of the Stanley Cup teams and winners, they generally have a Defender who can really take over on the back end physically when the other team has the puck in your zone. And that's when guys like Pietrangelo, Doughty, Hedman etc.. take over. Maybe Makar will. But playoff hockey isn't going to allow him to just maintain possession and skate around everyone.

And I think that's the major difference right now. Makar can get away with dominating on possession during the regular season but I am curious to see how he will handle the more physical, lower scoring, sometimes slower playoff/finals gameplay. Because that's when guys like Hedman and Doughty are at their best. And Makar won't be able to get away with just keeping the puck or playing a heavy possession game. He will have way more pressure on him. Maybe this is where size will come into the picture more also. But that's when he'll need to get in front of shots, when he will need to smother the opposition forwards. And maybe he will take that leap. But right now, I just don't think he's at that level defensively, as a complete Dman. And that's what an elite Dman does. And it's why I would rather have that level of Dman in the NHL, if your goal is to win a Cup. And it's extraordinarily difficult to win in the playoffs, let alone going all the way, without that.

We can argue back and forth about Makar or Hedman or whomever, but I don't think there is much doubt that Makar-Toews duo is just sick. Unfortunately, Hedman doesn't have the greatest partner in Rutta. He's good enough, but that's about it. Hedman has to do a lot on his own which I think is wearing on him this season especially as he's getting older and as the season goes on. Rutta is ok, but he's nowhere near the kind of player Toews has become and he doesn't help Hedman nearly as much as Toews helps Makar and vice versa. Yet I would say Hedman-Rutta is right up there near the top also. If Hedman had a partner like Toews, or even like Lindgren or Weeger or some of the sidekicks to the leagues other top defenseman, I don't think even Makar-Toews would be able to keep up. Hedman really has to take on so much responsibility.

I would say Doughty though, is probably up there as one of the most complete and best D in the league. Maybe even better defensively than Hedman, but not quite as good offensively. But I think they're close. Doughty, this season at least, has also had a bit too much responsibility and his partners not quite up to snuff.
Fair points. I see what you mean. Definitely will be tougher for Makar in the playoffs.

either way we have Seider
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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I’m not sure what you mean by control the game from the back end. Because as it is right now, Colorado’s entire game plan runs through Makar. He absolutely dictates the pace of every game from the back end.

And he’s way, way better than karlsson ever was defensively

Makar is good defensively but not great and his partner is light years better than DDK. That Colorado team is a transition machine. The team system really helps his game shine, but I'm not convinced that if he were on a team like Detroit he would be as successful, whereas a guy like Seider would be successful in any team system. Makar's game is predicated on being able to use his speed to take it to the other team's goal line, but Detroit does not skate nearly as well as Colorado so Makar just wouldn't have the same rush support that he gets now.
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

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Tampa Bay defence from JFresh player cards (based on WAR-model).

Hedman 99% - Rutta 22% (Bogosian 5%)
McDonagh 87% - Cernak 85%
Sergachev 41% - Foote 39%

What we have is

16% DeKeyser - 93% Seider
14% Staal - 59% Hronek
14% Leddy - 17% Lindström
15% Oesterle

So what we are missing is ~two outsiders.

Seider = "hedman", Hronek could be "sergachev". Also think Lindström could develop to be "foote". Also think Edvinsson is so good, that he'll fill one of "McDonagh or Cernak" -spots in 2-3 years.

Any "Rutta" or "Bogosian" can be found every year, we have currently four of them (DeKeyser, Oesterle, Staal, Leddy) at the roster.

I'm not surprised to see Seider so high but man, the rest of Detroit's defense is terrible. I'm shocked at how bad Leddy has been since December.

This also makes me super hopeful Detroit can sign Cernak in 2023 or trade for him at the draft this year. I think he'd be an amazing partner for Edvinsson.
 

Fil Larkmanthanasiou

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Feb 10, 2018
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Tampa Bay defence from JFresh player cards (based on WAR-model).

Hedman 99% - Rutta 22% (Bogosian 5%)
McDonagh 87% - Cernak 85%
Sergachev 41% - Foote 39%

What we have is

16% DeKeyser - 93% Seider
14% Staal - 59% Hronek
14% Leddy - 17% Lindström
15% Oesterle

So what we are missing is ~two outsiders.

Seider = "hedman", Hronek could be "sergachev". Also think Lindström could develop to be "foote". Also think Edvinsson is so good, that he'll fill one of "McDonagh or Cernak" -spots in 2-3 years.

Any "Rutta" or "Bogosian" can be found every year, we have currently four of them (DeKeyser, Oesterle, Staal, Leddy) at the roster.
What do the percentages indicate?
 

newfy

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I'll put it like this. I love Brian Leetch. He might be my favorite player ever. But he's not the greatest Dman ever. He was one of the greatest offensive Dmen of his generation and above average defensively. Didn;t make a lot of mistakes etc...

And that's how I would compare Makar right now, more to Leetch. Or Erik Karlsson.

But he wasn't Lidstrom and he wasn't Pronger. And I think Hedman, maybe not quite Lidstrom or Pronger. Near that kind of player in his prime. At least for this generation, there weren;t a ton of guys that can compare. All though the Pronger -Lidstrom era might have really had some of the all time greatest, complete Dmen ever. So it might not be fair.

To me an elite Dman is a guy who can control the game from the back end, shut down teams, and be a top PP guy. Doesn't need to score 80 points. But like 50ish is good enough if you can provide shut down dominating D. And I think Seider has more of that in him than Makar.

I would rather have the guy who can shut down teams and control a game from the back end while putting up 50+ points a season, than the guy who cant shut down the game and control it from the back end, but puts up 80 points in a season. AND look at the top Dmen who have won cups over the years...... most had a dominating shut down guy. Karlsson never challenged really, Leetch won once and it was kind of a miracle. Well, plus he had some awesome D partners and Messier etc.. Um, Pietrangelo, Doughty can take their D game to that level when need be. Letang even. Keith could do it occasionally. And I think you usually need that to win a Cup. Which is the goal IMO. Not to just rack up points and not make mistakes.

I dont know what to tell you. I'm Seiders biggest fan but his upgrade in denfse from Makar isnt going to come close to preventing the extra 30 goals Makar is going to be directly responsible for. Comparisons to purely offensive guys like Leetch and especially Karlsson arent accurate at all and thats at only 23. People forget how young he is.

Anyways if you want a real comparison from a past player, hes much more Ray Bourque than Leetch from that era. Best offensive guy, trending to be really good defensively and a bit of a physical streak.

Youre completely out to lunch with this take. The play youre seeing right now from Makar is the best from the blueline in at least a decade if not more.

Absolutely great writeup, the whole post. Agree 100% with all.

Many of these possession-monsters have great data, but also inflated data too. They basicly play against ~28 easy teams, beat them totally during regular season, which will inflate the stats. At Conference finals (if not busting earlier), they are there on the mix with Best 4 playoff teams left.

Then they lose at Conference finals, when the Best overall, big-sized and physical defences - with skill - come against.

We've seen Makar play at least 10 playoff games since he was a rookie. His first year he stepped right into the playoffs and hes been dominant every single time, and hes only 23.

I think people need to watch Colorado more, this guy isnt Quinn Hughes
 

Gniwder

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We've seen Makar play at least 10 playoff games since he was a rookie. His first year he stepped right into the playoffs and hes been dominant every single time, and hes only 23.

I think people need to watch Colorado more, this guy isnt Quinn Hughes
Stepped right in on his first game, scored a goal and looked good defensively.

I think there's just a bias against Colorado still, old rivalries die hard. I never hated the team because I lived there when the team moved, though I wore my Wings jersey to every playoff game I went to. I don't think too many people here watch Avs games, they're just basing his defensive play on his size and comparison to other offensive defensemen.

I'll watch Avs games just to watch Makar. While I'd rather have Seider, Makar is just fun to watch. The comparison to Hughes is dumb, Hughes doesn't score many goals, Makar will go goal line to goal line and either shoot or do a wrap around pass.
 

InjuredChoker

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What does wins above replacement mean?

it's an attempt to quantify players value. lot of different stats are being squeezed to one stat - WAR. the comparison is made to a replacement player, which is usually basically a callup from AHL. if a player has WAR of 10, he'd bring 10 more wins to his team compared to a replacement player.

i wouldn't advice to look at the specific WAR number too closely, they don't tell much in hockey. but the rankings have some use in player comparisons. some. it's better when comparing players in similar roles and systems.
 

Roomba With a Bauer

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Seeing Seider play just makes it more apparent that our defenseman are just absolute garbage. We have two NHL level defenseman on this roster. I don't think Leddy would be more than third pair on a bottom rung playoff team.

If we can't get more decent players on the roster, we're going to end up always picking 9-15 and we won't get anywhere. Like 40% of our team is really good, but there's just so much dead weight on the roster.
 

Fil Larkmanthanasiou

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Seeing Seider play just makes it more apparent that our defenseman are just absolute garbage. We have two NHL level defenseman on this roster. I don't think Leddy would be more than third pair on a bottom rung playoff team.

If we can't get more decent players on the roster, we're going to end up always picking 9-15 and we won't get anywhere. Like 40% of our team is really good, but there's just so much dead weight on the roster.
Hronek is much better than Leddy and Lindstrom seems to be developing into the type of player we were hoping Marchenko would be.
Seider, Hronek and Lindstrom are still young and should continue to get better. They are still weak after Seider and Hronek but much improved this year. For the last 3 years before this one the Wings defence may have been the worst in the league in a long time.
 

Gniwder

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If we can't get more decent players on the roster, we're going to end up always picking 9-15 and we won't get anywhere. Like 40% of our team is really good, but there's just so much dead weight on the roster.
If a team can't build by picking mid-round then they have no business winning the Cup.

There have been plenty of talented players picked after tenth, Larkin, Bert, Mantha, Vrana, and more recently Lundell, Necas, Robertson, etc. Tampa wouldn't have won their cups without their later round picks.

The team got their core (Raymond, Seider, Edvinsson, Cossa) by tanking, would've been nice to have an elite center but Stevie is just gonna have to build on what he's got. Can't tank forever or the team will never be able to attract or keep talent.
 

golffuul

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Oct 24, 2011
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If a team can't build by picking mid-round then they have no business winning the Cup.

There have been plenty of talented players picked after tenth, Larkin, Bert, Mantha, Vrana, and more recently Lundell, Necas, Robertson, etc. Tampa wouldn't have won their cups without their later round picks.

The team got their core (Raymond, Seider, Edvinsson, Cossa) by tanking, would've been nice to have an elite center but Stevie is just gonna have to build on what he's got. Can't tank forever or the team will never be able to attract or keep talent.
To amplify your statement...Aside from Hedman and Stamkos, all of Tampa's best players were 19th pick or later.
 
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