Speculation: Mitch Marner #14 - The Gentle Art of Making Enemies

[DomBarr]

they said that for the 2019-2020 season and look where we at... I'ts difficult to project the economy, even more now with the eventuality of a recession.

To be fair the NHL had included an increase based on the players using their escalator. The players finally figured out that the escalator only causes them to pay more into escrow so they declined to do so for the first time. The estimate to actual cap number difference is 100% on the NHL for including a cap increase for an item that they can't control. They would have been better off releasing a lower number and saying that it may increase if the players decide to use the escalator option.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

If it is the numbers Bobby Mac is reporting. This is a huge win for Marner and Ferris. Like I said, this would be a more player friendly deal than 11 x 7/8 which is already an overpayment.

considering Marner kinda has us over a barrel with our current aav limit. IMO we really can't even afford a 11x7 deal. Marner knows this and would be smart to take a bridge that has a high q.o. Its less team friendly but with our current cap situation I prefer that to a 11x7 or 8

 

[PuckItUp27]

????? hes being ripped for good reason. hes been offered 11m+ for 7-8 years, which is MORE than fair. his daddy is giving him bad bad advice. also the tavares situation is not similar whatsoever buddy... tavares took LESS money to come back home to his place of birth lmfao. he was ripped by isles fans because they were upset they couldnt do anything with his good years there - he wasnt after money, he was after HOME.

WRONG.

It continues to amaze me how many uneducated Leafs fans there are with the Tavares situation.

Isles fans don't care that he took less money to go home. We care that he lied to everyone about wanting to stay so that we couldn't get anything for him at the deadline and then made a huge spectacle out of it which made us miss out on guys like Ryan O'Reilly b/c he left us hanging. If he would have said he wanted to play for Toronto (trust me he knew that already, just like Panarin stated up front like a man regarding CBJ) and been up front about it instead of being a coward there would have been no issue and Isles fans wouldn't hate him the way we do now (deservedly so). This is a Marner thread, I am sorry that we live rent free in some Leafs fans heads but stop spreading uneducated false information.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

I think they could give him a bump in that last year. Just not the crazy 15m he's looking for, which could realistically make him the highest paid player in the league based on QO alone. 12 would be reasonable. 13 wouldn't be lethal to the team. Three years from now, a couple of elite players should be in that range, and hopefully the cap goes up to support it. 15m though... I just don't know if we're only three years away from Marner's tier of players making almost 3m more than McDavid. That's a recipe for disaster. 12 is a nice starting point though, and one that, three years from now, I think both sides could live with.

yea that 15 mil qo request seems like they have been watching too much Pawn stars. Imagine Rick as a GM, "I feel my client is worth 7 milx5yrs" Rick comes back with "hmmm I'll give you 5$"

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Marner for

Konecny & Provorov
Or
Werenski & Anderson
Or
Pesce & Teravainen
Or
Matthew Tkachuk

 

[DFC]

i don't think dubas lost the negotiations with nylander. the CH is under 7 million for 5 more years and if he regains his form it will be a great contract. matthews' contract may end up being a fair deal, especially if he keeps being a ppg player.

Sort of. The problem is he gave him the money he wanted, AND a very player-favorable term. Same as with Matthews. He really didn't get Nylander to give up anything, or Matthews, in terms of $ or term, but with Marner, he's asking for the player to concede on one or the other. And Marner's camp seems to be saying, "This trend won't stop with me."

I don't know. If I'm a Leaf fan, the wording of that Bobby Mac tweet would be troubling. Because whether or not Marner is as good as Matthews is debatable, but it seems like he definitely wants a similarly player friendly contract. And anything else is "not palatable."

I know Leaf fans want to defend Dubas, and I don't blame you. But from the outside looking in, it seems like he's been unable to get anybody, so far, to "take a little less" for the good of the team. Matthews could have set the precedent, but he didn't, and now things are getting out of hand a bit.

 

[DFC]

yea that 15 mil qo request seems like they have been watching too much Pawn stars. Imagine Rick as a GM, "I feel my client is worth 7 milx5yrs" Rick comes back with "hmmm I'll give you 5$"

Marner (or I guess Ferris) is probably thinking about the long-term too. Matthews has set himself up where he could realistically make more money than McDavid over his career, given the age at which he'll be signing his third contract. I mean, I'm not saying it's LIKELY, but it's realistic that it COULD happen. Marner's looking at 8 x 11 and all the money that contract leaves on the table over his career vs. Matthews, who's third contract could realistically be 15 AAV. So, while it's only 500k less than Matthews now, it's 4m less 5 years from now. And he's clearly looking at Matthews as the guy who set the bar for this.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Sort of. The problem is he gave him the money he wanted, AND a very player-favorable term. Same as with Matthews. He really didn't get Nylander to give up anything, or Matthews, in terms of $ or term, but with Marner, he's asking for the player to concede on one or the other. And Marner's camp seems to be saying, "This trend won't stop with me."

I don't know. If I'm a Leaf fan, the wording of that Bobby Mac tweet would be troubling. Because whether or not Marner is as good as Matthews is debatable, but it seems like he definitely wants a similarly player friendly contract. And anything else is "not palatable."

I know Leaf fans want to defend Dubas, and I don't blame you. But from the outside looking in, it seems like he's been unable to get anybody, so far, to "take a little less" for the good of the team. Matthews could have set the precedent, but he didn't, and now things are getting out of hand a bit.

He didnt give Nylander the ask he wanted. All reports have Nylander at 8-8.5 right before the deadline to get the deal done and Dubas in the 6 range. The literally met in the middle to get a deal done if not Willy giving more. I get that Nylander was awful after and that has soured people on the deal but if he simply returns to what he already was the deal is fine. If people have a problem with the Matthew's deal? Yeah sure Matthew's got everything he possibly could have asked for but the narrative around the Nylander contract are just flat out wrong.

 

[biotk]

Matthews is also paid like someone who should score 100 points.

He is. He should and if doesn't that he will be considered a disappointment (at least by me - I can't speak for others).

He was pacing for 50 goals and 50 assists last season before he signed (23 goals, 23 assists in 37 games), despite battling injuries and playing with far worse linemates than any player in the top 20. The remainder of the season his production was poor, but over that time his ES expected goals for was 8th in the league among forwards (behind Aho, Niederieter, Williams, Tavares, Kucherov, Seguin and ROR) but he was rocking a completely unsustainably low oiSH%.

So, yeah 50 goals 100 points should be the expectation.

 

[vanarchy]

I remember when I turned down an offer for 100 bucks for an old refrigerator that I was selling and I felt that was a super ballsy move

Ferris could have got you at least $150

 

[TheNumber4]

I said when Austin Matthews was grossly overpaid that it would cause issues for the Leafs. Now this fiasco is happening and here's why:

Marner => Matthews for on ice production, he's the more effective player because he actually has playmaking ability and a higher hockey IQ. So he's thinking he deserves an equivalent contract to Matthews. Problem is, Matthews contract is inflated due to being over-rated to the moon by the Leafs bubble.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

Well if he did indeed reject 7 and 8 year deals at 11 mill AAV then he obviously wants a 5 year deal.

I think the 5 year term is the sticking point.

Leafs don't want him to become UFA same year as Matthews.

Didn't he say he was looking for a 5 year deal?

Correct me if I am wrong here Leafs fans.

At this point, would you give him a 5 year deal at 11 mill AAV? Or if Marner wants 5 years then he settles for 10 mill AAV? Or something like that?

 

[biotk]

I think the only way this settles is something like 3x$27-$30M. It'll be a cave by the Leafs, but they should be able to trade Marner for a haul in three years if they can't resign him. Gives them a three year window to win it all.

You wouldn't be able to trade Marner for a bag of pucks in 3 years with his QO.

 

[Advanced stats]

There are really only 3 potential scenarios left for me.

1. Marner takes the June offer @ 11 x 7 or 8
2. Marner is traded
3, Dubas betters the 11 x 7 or 8 year he made in June by Oct 1.


4. The Marner sits out a season narrative. I think this one is remote. Leafs would be foolish to waste an asset for a year where their widow is small since they have barrie and muzzin for only one more guaranteed year. My bet is he will be signed or traded before that happens.

Marner will sign for an already overpayment of 11 x 7/8 yrs or get an even better offer by Oct 1. Or he will most likely be traded.

6th option:
Marner comes down to earth as the season starts, just as many RFA's have done and many will do.
Bargaining is a fickle thing.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Leafs leaking their contract offers says more about Peter (Dubas) than it does about Paul (Marner).

Can’t shortchange your best player in Marner because you overpaid your third best in Matthews.

 

[DFC]

Actually pretty pathetic to see so many cheering this **** on. Should be expected by now but actually pathetic. Shame on anyone wishing to screw over fans of the game because you dislike the team. And shame on anyone for wishing the sport of hockey to be worse overall because of it as well.

I hope all of your favorite players **** all over your teams and pull a Lindros so you can all see how it feels.

It's way too early for this kind of reaction. Marner has yet to miss a game.

We're just trying to work out the logic behind it. I doubt it's as simple as "Marner's an a*****e!"

 

[nuck]

Off topic

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Leafs leaking their contract offers says more about Peter (Dubas) than it does about Paul (Marner).

Can’t shortchange your best player in Marner because you overpaid your third best in Matthews.

Matthews is the Leafs best player.

 

[Leaf4Life79]

Bottom line is this, if he thinks he is worth more then the overpayment of 11 AAV that was offered to him back in June, then he needs to be traded asap. For sure lost my respect, over 100 MILLION CDN dollars is not enough? give me a flippin break!

 

[Kamiccolo]

It's way too early for this kind of reaction. Marner has yet to miss a game.

We're just trying to work out the logic behind it. I doubt it's as simple as "Marner's an a*****e!"

11 x 7 is a massive overpayment for him and he still turned it down. No amount of trolling on about "Matthews bent him over" and such matters. He's not Matthews, and everyone knows that. He' had 1 career PPG year and it was with a top 10 C who has gotten guys paid. He literally turned down what Tavares got paid.

Then you see all these other guys singing these awesome deals. Meanwhile Marner fed the BS of "home town boy", want to be here forever, etc etc and then shits all over the fan base. So nah, unless he caves and signs that deal or something better, it's not too early.

He can get f***ed as far as most of us are concerned.

 

[boredmale]

Problem is, Matthews contract is inflated due to being over-rated to the moon by the Leafs bubble.

(I am on the Matthews is worth more side but.....)Right or Wrong I think position plays alot into why Matthews got more money. Production wise(when ignoring injury history and looking more a PPG totals) it's fairly close so when you have a 40+ goal center compared to a 90+ point winger, 9 times out of 10 people will go for the Center

 

[TrufleShufle]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

[Riellyfan04]

sign him for 5 years for around9.5 or 10m and in his third year, if we cant win a cup by then, trade him. you going to need a big shake up anyways and id want him gone before matthews or nylander

 

[DFC]

He didnt give Nylander the ask he wanted. All reports have Nylander at 8-8.5 right before the deadline to get the deal done and Dubas in the 6 range. The literally met in the middle to get a deal done if not Willy giving more. I get that Nylander was awful after and that has soured people on the deal but if he simply returns to what he already was the deal is fine. If people have a problem with the Matthew's deal? Yeah sure Matthew's got everything he possibly could have asked for but the narrative around the Nylander contract are just flat out wrong.

Right, but players ask for crazy **** all the time. Nobody think they're going to get it. Nylander got good money for what he actually is, AND he got term that sets him up for at least one more big contract. It's not as player friendly as the Matthews deal, but that's a hard bar to meet. But it definitely does reinforce the precedent set with the Matthews deal, which is "players aren't going to take a little less for the sake of building a contender."

And I think that's where Marner's coming from. He's the guy who's being asked to make, if not the only concession, the biggest concession. And it sounds like he's not willing to be the first guy to make that sacrifice. As great as 11m x 8 sounds... it's not comparable to 11m x 5. He would probably take 10m x 5, but Dubas has backed himself into a corner where that would create a nightmare cap situation.

 

[Bounces R Way]