Speculation: Mitch Marner #14 - The Gentle Art of Making Enemies

[KidLine93]

Are they? Yes there are a lot of trolls in Leafs related threads. Most Leaf fans want to sign him.

I guess the vocal minority is just speaking louder than the main fan base. I shouldn't have generalized

 

[mydnyte]

There are really only 3 potential scenarios left for me.

1. Marner takes the June offer @ 11 x 7 or 8
2. Marner is traded
3, Dubas betters the 11 x 7 or 8 year he made in June by Oct 1.


4. The Marner sits out a season narrative. I think this one is remote. Leafs would be foolish to waste an asset for a year where their widow is small since they have barrie and muzzin for only one more guaranteed year. My bet is he will be signed or traded before that happens.

Marner will sign for an already overpayment of 11 x 7/8 yrs or get an even better offer by Oct 1. Or he will most likely be traded.

5th option ...1 year deals until tv contract

 

[The Winter Soldier]

You forgot the most likely, a 3yr deal around 9aav structured 6.5 9 11.5

That would be under the Marner signs for a better offer. A 3rd year qualifier is one deal the Leafs do not want any part of. Marner will take that all day long. He's in for another big pay day/contract in 3 years.

 

[hmc1987]

Did he turn down 11x8?

Also, I can't dislike your post...not after you included that part about JT <3

The part about why can't you expect players to play for the love of their team on friendly contract?

Because that is an unfair expectation.

 

[Metroid]

There are really only 3 potential scenarios left for me.

1. Marner takes the June offer @ 11 x 7 or 8
2. Marner is traded
3, Dubas betters the 11 x 7 or 8 year he made in June by Oct 1.


4. The Marner sits out a season narrative. I think this one is remote. Leafs would be foolish to waste an asset for a year where their widow is small since they have barrie and muzzin for only one more guaranteed year. My bet is he will be signed or traded before that happens.

Marner will sign for an already overpayment of 11 x 7/8 yrs or get an even better offer by Oct 1. Or he will most likely be traded.

Another thing you'll be wrong about.
Looking forward to it.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

That would be the Marner signs for a better offer. A 3rd year qualifier is one deal the Leafs do not want any part of. Marner will take that all day long.

thats my guess how this ends, I think Dubas is offering a 3 yr deal structured $$ up front and a low QO so he has leverage in locking him up long term. Marner's camp want the $$ on the end so they have the leverage.
maybe they meet in the middle and do a straight 9-9-9

 

[Deebs]

Yeh, make the Leafs worse so you can overpay. Glad people in charge don't feel the same way.

They should've traded Nylander last year.... they screwed the pooch on that one

 

[DFC]

makes sense. I don't know how involved Marner has been in the negotiations, so it might also be putting pressure on Ferris from his own client. I still wouldn't give the 11 x 8 or whatever it was.

Yeah. If the Leafs are dealing exclusively with Ferris, this might be a message to Mitch. Like, maybe he's not okay with looking like the bad guy. But at the same time, it's not like they're lying about anything. They're just releasing the numbers. And it just happens to make Mitch look like the bad guy, because, even if the Leafs aren't offering all the bells and whistles of the Matthews contract, they ARE offering to put him in the same paygrade as McDavid.

At the same time, this is really starting to feel like a matter of time. It feels like Dubas "lost" negotiations to Matthews and Nylander by giving out deals that are waaaay more player friendly than deal friendly, and now he has to put things back in line, and Marner doesn't want to be the guy who that happens to. Because as good as 11 x 8 is, 11 x 5 is a lot better.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

thats my guess how this ends, I think Dubas is offering a 3 yr deal structured $$ up front and a low QO so he has leverage in locking him up long term. Marner's camp want the $$ on the end so they have the leverage.
maybe they meet in the middle and do a straight 9-9-9

 

[DFC]

You forgot the most likely, a 3yr deal around 9aav structured 6.5 9 11.5

Yeah, something like that might be the compromise. If they can just get him to come down from 15 on that final year to something more reasonable. Maybe 12. Contracts of elite players should rise to that level by then.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

I kinda hope this is 1 of those times where the media/Leafs are playing us like fiddles. They release these insane #'s to get us all riled up then boom announce a signing thats high but lower than the crazy #'s. So we all can say hey look Marner took a discount and others can say Dubas won. Sometimes it looks like a blueprint that we have seen before.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

I guess the vocal minority is just speaking louder than the main fan base. I shouldn't have generalized

One thing to also keep in mind is that there are some Leaf "fans" who do nothing but hate the team and cause trouble. I personally think that's a weird way for a real "fan" to act but that's just me.

 

[Lahey]

You havn't been paying attention to the media then. TSN is ripping him on leafs lunch, Overdrive, plus look how toxic all his threads are on HFBoards. He was the golden boy and now he's being treated like Tavares when he left NYI.

????? hes being ripped for good reason. hes been offered 11m+ for 7-8 years, which is MORE than fair. his daddy is giving him bad bad advice. also the tavares situation is not similar whatsoever buddy... tavares took LESS money to come back home to his place of birth lmfao. he was ripped by isles fans because they were upset they couldnt do anything with his good years there - he wasnt after money, he was after HOME.

 

[hyduK]

I kinda hope this is 1 of those times where the media/Leafs are playing us like fiddles. They release these insane #'s to get us all riled up then boom announce a signing thats high but lower than the crazy #'s. So we all can say hey look Marner took a discount and others can say Dubas won. Sometimes it looks like a blueprint that we have seen before.

Yeah I kinda doubt they're waiting to the day before training camp to do all this.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

that tweet kinda says what my gut feeling is, I think its down to a 3 yr deal and they are arguing about structure.
Kinda seems silly to not be able to find a # that works. like DFC said even 6-9-12 isn't great but if it gets the deal done then what a half mil between friends lol

 

[KidLine93]

????? hes being ripped for good reason. hes been offered 11m+ for 7-8 years, which is MORE than fair. his daddy is giving him bad bad advice. also the tavares situation is not similar whatsoever buddy... tavares took LESS money to come back home to his place of birth lmfao. he was ripped by isles fans because they were upset they couldnt do anything with his good years there - he wasnt after money, he was after HOME.

If he was after only home why didn't he take a smaller deal to ensure Toronto could afford everyone? 11M is still a massive contract.

 

[McOvechking]

I think the only way this settles is something like 3x$27-$30M. It'll be a cave by the Leafs, but they should be able to trade Marner for a haul in three years if they can't resign him. Gives them a three year window to win it all.

 

[DFC]

Unless Bob's just being loose with words here, this really does suggest that Marner is pointing to the Matthews contract and saying, "I need something comparable to that." Because Bob is directly referencing Matthews's deal, and saying, since it's not quite like that, it's "not palatable" to Marner.

This is a weird situation. I think there's a lot of pride involved.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

that tweet kinda says what my gut feeling is, I think its down to a 3 yr deal and they are arguing about structure.
Kinda seems silly to not be able to find a # that works. like DFC said even 6-9-12 isn't great but if it gets the deal done then what a half mil between friends lol

If it is the numbers Bobby Mac is reporting. This is a huge win for Marner and Ferris. Like I said, this would be a more player friendly deal than 11 x 7/8 which is already an overpayment.

 

[Harhis]

That's dumb as hell, but pretty much par for the course in this thread. Drai is paid like someone who should be carrying his own line.

Matthews is also paid like someone who should score 100 points.

 

[Sureves]

I think the only way this settles is something like 3x$27-$30M. It'll be a cave by the Leafs, but they should be able to trade Marner for a haul in three years if they can't resign him. Gives them a three year window to win it all.

Ya this seems like the way forward to me too.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

I think the only way this settles is something like 3x$27-$30M. It'll be a cave by the Leafs, but they should be able to trade Marner for a haul in three years if they can't resign him. Gives them a three year window to win it all.

I agree but I think its the salary in yr 3 thats the current issue. I bet the Leafs are willing to front load it with bonuses to the max and want to have a league min salary the 3rd year.
6-9-12
6.5-9-11.5
7-9-11
one of these 3 is my expectation

 

[TheBeastCoast]

No more agenda than the fans calling him and his family names for asking for what he is worth.

Who says he is worth what he is asking if nobody is willing to give it to him? I could ask my boss for 50% raise say I earned that raise! If my boss says no...and I look elsewhere and those places wont do it well then maaaaybe I'm not worth 50% more then my current salary and I should adjust my asking price.

 

[DFC]

thats my guess how this ends, I think Dubas is offering a 3 yr deal structured $$ up front and a low QO so he has leverage in locking him up long term. Marner's camp want the $$ on the end so they have the leverage.
maybe they meet in the middle and do a straight 9-9-9

I think they could give him a bump in that last year. Just not the crazy 15m he's looking for, which could realistically make him the highest paid player in the league based on QO alone. 12 would be reasonable. 13 wouldn't be lethal to the team. Three years from now, a couple of elite players should be in that range, and hopefully the cap goes up to support it. 15m though... I just don't know if we're only three years away from Marner's tier of players making almost 3m more than McDavid. That's a recipe for disaster. 12 is a nice starting point though, and one that, three years from now, I think both sides could live with.

 

[mondo13]

Yeah. If the Leafs are dealing exclusively with Ferris, this might be a message to Mitch. Like, maybe he's not okay with looking like the bad guy. But at the same time, it's not like they're lying about anything. They're just releasing the numbers. And it just happens to make Mitch look like the bad guy, because, even if the Leafs aren't offering all the bells and whistles of the Matthews contract, they ARE offering to put him in the same paygrade as McDavid.

At the same time, this is really starting to feel like a matter of time. It feels like Dubas "lost" negotiations to Matthews and Nylander by giving out deals that are waaaay more player friendly than deal friendly, and now he has to put things back in line, and Marner doesn't want to be the guy who that happens to. Because as good as 11 x 8 is, 11 x 5 is a lot better.

i don't think dubas lost the negotiations with nylander. the CH is under 7 million for 5 more years and if he regains his form it will be a great contract. matthews' contract may end up being a fair deal, especially if he keeps being a ppg player.