Speculation: Matt Duchene Thread Part... Just get a trade done already

[CB Joe]

Um, the "risk" in acquiring him with two years left is that he can walk away as a free agent. Getting him one year closer to being able to walk away as a free agent doesn't make him more enticing as an asset, it makes him less enticing.

It's hilarious that you manage to be condescending and insulting while simultaneously not having a clue what you're talking about.

Ironic post considering you're the one that's uninformed. Duchene can negotiate an extension as soon as he has one year left on his contract. This would eliminate the risk of him walking.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

I'd suggest that it is in Duchene's best interest to play as well as he can this year, regardless of whether he wants to stay in Colorado or not. Last year can't be called an anomaly if he doesn't rebound, and two bad years in a row would significantly impact the value of his next contract. But, sure, I guess we could assume that he's going to tank his own trade value, and probably lose a few million per year on his next deal. Seems like a bad idea to me, but it's your theory.

I assume he will play as hard as he can. Playing Devil's advocate. I meant agreeing to an extension in advance. That ups his value to the Avs. Acting in self-interest, would he decline to indicate a willingness to negotiate an extension, thus allowing his new team to pay less for a rental and making his new team stronger?

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Ironic post considering you're the one that's uninformed. Duchene can negotiate an extension as soon as he has one year left on his contract. This would eliminate the risk of him walking.

Why would a player (especially one in high demand) negotiate a contract immediately after being traded. By the time he gets settled in to even see if he likes the fit hi will be up for free agency. Getting the 2nd year with a top end player is crucial. Not only do you get one more guaranteed run outta him but it gives you a chance of extending him the next season.

 

[tucker3434]

Why would a player (especially one in high demand) negotiate a contract immediately after being traded. By the time he gets settled in to even see if he likes the fit hi will be up for free agency. Getting the 2nd year with a top end player is crucial. Not only do you get one more guaranteed run outta him but it gives you a chance of extending him the next season.

Mercenary Ryan O’Reilly who couldn’t get to UFA fast enough did this very thing. Players sign extensions almost always. Do people get amnesia after July 1 every year or what?

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Mercenary Ryan O’Reilly who couldn’t get to UFA fast enough did this very thing. Players sign extensions almost always. Do people get amnesia after July 1 every year or what?

1. O'Reilly is a unique situation since most of his issues in Colorado were contract related. Id imagine knowing his asking price was part of the talks.

2. Yes most players sign extensions, but a very high percentage of those situations involve a player that has been there for multiple years. If Duchene gets traded next season im sure he would resign if the acquiring team backed up the Brinks truck. But there is literally no benefit to doing so for a new team immediately otherwise. How many short timers that get traded (1 year or less) sign extensions before the negotiating window opens up?

Off the top of my head i got O'Reilly and Burrows. And you can make the case that finding someone willing to extend him was part of what made Burrows waive in the first place.

 

[PensandCaps]

I mean, if Colorado can get a Dman, the team can be good. So keeping Duchene is an option. Their forward group is deep and Varly looks to be healthy again.

 

[tucker3434]

1. O'Reilly is a unique situation since most of his issues in Colorado were contract related. Id imagine knowing his asking price was part of the talks.

2. Yes most players sign extensions, but a very high percentage of those situations involve a player that has been there for multiple years. If Duchene gets traded next season im sure he would resign if the acquiring team backed up the Brinks truck. But there is literally no benefit to doing so for a new team immediately otherwise. How many short timers that get traded (1 year or less) sign extensions before the negotiating window opens up?

Off the top of my head i got O'Reilly and Burrows. And you can make the case that finding someone willing to extend him was part of what made Burrows waive in the first place.

Bobby Ryan, who was 100% going to sign in Philly, signed in Ottawa about a year after his trade. This situation doesn’t happen a ton, but when it does, the acquiring team has a pretty good idea of what it’ll cost and they get a deal done.

Duchene has never tried to squeeze every dollar out of each contract. I don’t expect him to start now. I think his number one ask on the next deal will be a full NMC. Beyond that, he’ll want market value which, if he returns to 60+ point pace, will be $7-7.5m. Anyone not willing to pay him that in the future shouldn’t be in the trade talks to begin with.

 

[MAHJ71]

How do you figure? I like Ryan Murray a lot and get that Carlsson has the skating & size some teams still love, but neither matches a Hanifin offer from Carolina.

Where did I say Hanifin wasn't the better offer?

WHAT I said was CBJ would have a deal already if it was possible to talk/work an extension with Duchene. Nothing to do with Carolina.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Bobby Ryan, who was 100% going to sign in Philly, signed in Ottawa about a year after his trade. This situation doesn’t happen a ton, but when it does, the acquiring team has a pretty good idea of what it’ll cost and they get a deal done.

Duchene has never tried to squeeze every dollar out of each contract. I don’t expect him to start now. I think his number one ask on the next deal will be a full NMC. Beyond that, he’ll want market value which, if he returns to 60+ point pace, will be $7-7.5m. Anyone not willing to pay him that in the future shouldn’t be in the trade talks to begin with.

Bobby signed a year later but also had another year left. Which is where Duchene is in his contract right now. I just think that situation is much more conducive to an extension than a guy already in his walk year.

 

[MinJaBen]

The Avs better trade Duchene soon before you guys blow up your tank for Dahlin.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I assume he will play as hard as he can. Playing Devil's advocate. I meant agreeing to an extension in advance. That ups his value to the Avs. Acting in self-interest, would he decline to indicate a willingness to negotiate an extension, thus allowing his new team to pay less for a rental and making his new team stronger?

I don't think anyone is expecting him to sign an extension with the Avs before any potential trade, because a real sign and trade almost never happens.

I also don't see Duchene doing anything to hurt his own value in a trade. If he does something like you're suggesting, maybe he doesn't get traded next off season, and maybe the Avs just keep him until the 2019 TDL. If he truly wants to get moved, it's in his own best interests to help facilitate the process.

 

[JoemAvs]

The Avs better trade Duchene soon before you guys blow up your tank for Dahlin.

Would have to trade Varlamov not Duchene if we want to prevent that.
Semyon has looked incredibly sharp so far. Similar to how he looked back when he should have won a Vezina...

Duchene has also looked amazing but in the end it will depend on our goalies if we have a good shot at Dahlin or not.


Darling looked pretty good in your first game. Hanifin probably looked easily the worst out of all the 4 guys mentioned in his first game but he had that late goal and the Canes won so it certainly wasn't a disaster either...


If Darling comes back down to earth and if Varly can stay healthy (looks like that surgery he got to fix his nagging problems really helped), Canes and Avs really might have something to discuss at the deadline...

Not that I think that Sakic would ever make a huge trade involving these guys and more. But it certainly could be worth a discussion if Darling does not live up to expectations (have a decent feelinge about him, though).

But the Avs will probably only be 5 points or so out of a playoff spot (if not better) thanks to our goaltending by then and not make any moves anyways.

Thats unfortunately how we roll...

 

[MinJaBen]

Would have to trade Varlamov not Duchene if we want to prevent that.
Semyon has looked incredibly sharp so far. Similar to how he looked back when he should have won a Vezina...

Duchene has also looked amazing but in the end it will depend on our goalies if we have a good shot at Dahlin or not.


Darling looked pretty good in your first game. Hanifin probably looked easily the worst out of all the 4 guys mentioned in his first game but he had that late goal and the Canes won so it certainly wasn't a disaster either...


If Darling comes back down to earth and if Varly can stay healthy (looks like that surgery he got to fix his nagging problems really helped), Canes and Avs really might have something to discuss at the deadline...

Not that I think that Sakic would ever make a huge trade involving these guys and more. But it certainly could be worth a discussion if Darling does not live up to expectations (have a decent feelinge about him, though).

But the Avs will probably only be 5 points or so out of a playoff spot (if not better) thanks to our goaltending by then and not make any moves anyways.

Thats unfortunately how we roll...

Yeah, both Varly and Duchy have looked good from what I've seen (admittedly mostly highlights). I think Darling was solid, but has room for improvement. Hanifin was bad. For whatever reason, I don't think Hanifin-Pesce work well together. And while Hanifin-Faulk you wouldn't think would be a good fit, they looked better on Saturday and all last year after the deadline, too. Peters just likes to tinker a bit too much in my opinion with lines and d-pairings...he is never happy with giving guys a chance to get used to each other. We'll see tonight if pulls out the blend-o-matic again or not.

As you said, there might be further discussions after the mid-way point of the year leading up to the deadline between the two clubs again. I'd think not only will the state of the two teams records be a factor, but also the play of Fleury. If he is looking like a guy that can move up a pairing without a big fall off, that makes things more possible.

 

[TaketheCannoli]

I don't think anyone is expecting him to sign an extension with the Avs before any potential trade, because a real sign and trade almost never happens.

I also don't see Duchene doing anything to hurt his own value in a trade. If he does something like you're suggesting, maybe he doesn't get traded next off season, and maybe the Avs just keep him until the 2019 TDL. If he truly wants to get moved, it's in his own best interests to help facilitate the process.

I think there is a lot of rule bending in the NHL. Teams don't tamper per se, but they talk to a player's agent and if the subject happens to come up. As an example, Brisson is Tavares's agent and he probably talks with Garth Snow regularly. Brisson has every opportunity to let the Isles know Duchene is likely or unlikely to sign an extension with them at a certain price range. This is extremely common in trades and coaching hires.

How do you think all these UFAs used to sign new contracts in the first hour of free agency? Do you think they negotiated the whole thing in an hour or less? If Duchene doesn't signal through his agent, it holds his price down and helps his new team.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I think there is a lot of rule bending in the NHL. Teams don't tamper per se, but they talk to a player's agent and if the subject happens to come up. As an example, Brisson is Tavares's agent and he probably talks with Garth Snow regularly. Brisson has every opportunity to let the Isles know Duchene is likely or unlikely to sign an extension with them at a certain price range. This is extremely common in trades and coaching hires.

How do you think all these UFAs used to sign new contracts in the first hour of free agency? Do you think they negotiated the whole thing in an hour or less? If Duchene doesn't signal through his agent, it holds his price down and helps his new team.

I agree, there is a lot of grey area that allows teams to have some indication of what a player might do. But, there is a big difference between a pending UFA lining up his next job, and a player's agent doing something that negatively influences a trade. And, I really don't think Brisson is stupid enough to risk screwing over the Avs, when MacKinnon and EJ are both still his clients.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Considering the depth of the Avalanche (I'm praising the depth, not high end talent) I think it makes most sense for Joe to take the best "futures" package available. No reason to take on middle/bottom pairing defenseman or middle 6 forwards when the team is already deep enough on those positions. If the Avs cant get a top level forward or defenseman (which they likely cant considering most contending teams wont want to hurt their current club) it makes total sense to take a risk on a prospect or two who has the ceiling to potentially become that high end player than to add another middling player who's simply just going to fight with what's already there for ice time.

Assuming the Chabot's, Hanifin's and McAvoy's are rightfully off the table, I'd be looking at the Tolvanen's, Fabbro's, Bean's and Valimaki's of other teams. Or if NYI are willing, grab as many of their draft picks as possible since they're probably going to be a lot higher than their management anticipates.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I would say that best case scenario is that the Avs get what they want, a young LHD with upside, which is still plausible. Just because you, and most other Avs fans around here, are pessimistic and seem to want to panic because short term results haven't lined up with where we hoped to be by now, does not mean that Sakic's long term plan is flawed.

As I've said before, the Avs did not have a realistic path to success when Sakic took over the team. They had a handful of good players, a whole bunch of mediocre vets, and essentially nothing in the prospect pool. In this era, when good young players are rarely available in trades or as UFAs, the only reasonable way to expect to get them is through the draft. So, Sakic made some changes to the scouting department, and the last 3 years have resulted in some very interesting young players. Unfortunately, because he was rebuilding the prospect pool essentially from scratch, he still had to go the UFA route to fill out the roster until the youngsters were ready. The last 3 years show how well the UFA/waiver route works, further cementing the importance of drafting well.

We're just now starting to see the results of what Sakic has been doing. The last 3 years were a means to get us to this point, where we seem to have a pretty consistent supply of young, talented players to add to the roster. Even with all the prospects that joined the team this year, there's still 3 or 4 guys with real potential behind them. Looking forward, there's a real chance for the Avs to be competitive in the near future, and if they can continue to draft well, they could remain competitive for decades. In my view, long term success should be the primary goal of a GM, and Sakic seems to have us on a path that's heading in that direction.

So, if you want to complain about the methods he used to get to this point, and nitpick about every mistake he's made, that's fine. But, don't expect me to join in the pity party. I still see plenty of reasons for long term optimism, and don't want to give up my opportunity to say "I told you so" quite yet. And, I appreciate the concern for my reputation, but I think you care more about it than I do at this point.

I'm glad to see you understand what the best case scenario is. But based on your previous post talking about the offers being more or less the same you obviously have no clue what the other scenarios are. You also don't seem to undertand that different scenarios have different odds of happening. But hey, I'm sure the best case will happen. Best case scenarios pretty much always happen.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Getting him one year closer also means that the team that acquires him is able to immediately start negotiating an extension, something they can't do until he's in his final contract year. For a team that doesn't want to risk paying a big trade price for him, and then wait 9 months to extend him (which has its own set of risks) it is possible that him being 1 year from UFA and being able to immediate sign an extension could be more enticing than acquiring him right now.

I also apologize for assuming you'd come to this conclusion on your own, I didn't mean to be condescending. I won't assume you can follow basic logic in the future.

Being able to negotiate a contract and being able to sign an extension does do shit for his value.

He actually has to sign it. By the way you argue you think it's a forgone conclusion he will.

That's still assuming that he truly feels that the Avs have treated him unfairly. And, no, the circumstantial evidence that sort of might indicate something if you look at it a certain way doesn't convince me. I can just as easily believe that there are explanations for his comments and actions that don't require him to hate the team.

Some people believe the earth is flat. Some people believe evolution is a hoax. Some people believe George Bush was the evil mastermind behind 9/11. It's "easy" to "believe" whatever you like.

Believing there are explanations is one thing. Actually explaining those explanations without sounding like the crazy guy who thinks he was abducted by aliens is another.

 

[sparxx87]

Duchene and Varlamov for Trouba, Hellebuyck +

This improves the Jets assuming both players play to their capabilities, and the Avs get a young top pair RH d while tanking for Dahlin and finally getting the circus around Duchene out of town.

The Jets take a step forward and the Avs take a necessary step back to clean the slate and move on.

 

[mondo3]

How about Byfuglien for Duchesne?

 

[sparxx87]

How about Byfuglien for Duchesne?

If you’re rebuilding your team, would you trade one of your best assets for a 32 year old defense man whose going to be 35-37 in your target window?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Duchene and Varlamov for Trouba, Hellebuyck +

This improves the Jets assuming both players play to their capabilities, and the Avs get a young top pair RH d while tanking for Dahlin and finally getting the circus around Duchene out of town.

The Jets take a step forward and the Avs take a necessary step back to clean the slate and move on.

I'd do this as an Avs fan easily. Varlamov is fully healthy for the first time since his 4th place hart season and he looks like the second coming of Jesus Christ out there, but there's no certainty what he will do when his contract ends. Duchene has been the Avs best forward through 3 games but, that story has to end.

The Jets don't do this though.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I'd do this as an Avs fan easily. Varlamov is fully healthy for the first time since his 4th place hart season and he looks like the second coming of Jesus Christ out there, but there's no certainty what he will do when his contract ends. Duchene has been the Avs best forward through 3 games but, that story has to end.

The Jets don't do this though.

No certainty how long his groin holds up as well. Maybe the surgery(s) fix him completely, but I'm going to be worried about him for at least this year.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

No certainty how long his groin holds up as well. Maybe the surgery(s) fix him completely, but I'm going to be worried about him for at least this year.

I agree. I am confident in Varlamov's ability as long as he stays healthy. I am not confident he stays healthy. That deal would be a steal for the Avs.

 

[sparxx87]

I'd do this as an Avs fan easily. Varlamov is fully healthy for the first time since his 4th place hart season and he looks like the second coming of Jesus Christ out there, but there's no certainty what he will do when his contract ends. Duchene has been the Avs best forward through 3 games but, that story has to end.

The Jets don't do this though.

That’s why I think the Jets should do this. Varlamov, when healthy, is a significant upgrade in net for them. Likely the best they’d have as Jets 2.0... And the addition of Duchene bumps Little down to strengthen the top 9, and Duchene adds speed and skill to their top 6. They have 3 top line wingers in Laine, Ehlers and Wheeler - this would give them 2/3 of another 1st line IMO.

Trouba is a good player but he doesn’t want to be there. The Jets have a pretty deep blue line so while it is a loss there, IMO the pros far outweigh the cons in this case.