Dreger: Matt Duchene Mega-thread:Habs, NSH, NYI, OTT inquired - Part III

[tucker3434]

Sakic's high demand has turned a lot of teams away... Read this article

http://www.ottawasun.com/2017/02/13...scenario-wouldnt-make-sense-for-ottawa-dorion

I don't really care what GM's are saying to the media. The rumors haven't gone away so clearly people are still calling.

 

[Dr Quincy]

His current play is fine all things considered.

SIGNIFICANTLY. The struggles of other teams as well. From where I sit the pressure is on the Habs,Sens and Bruins. The avs are sitting pretty dead last this year. It's the rest of the league fighting for the playoffs.



I wasn't the one who brought it up...just showing how ridiculous the comparison is.

You know, I'll totally take your word about there being no pressure on the Avs, because I assume you know your market better than I do.

But I also ask that you show the same deference to those in other markets.

No, the Bruins aren't under pressure to make a move. I realize that you may want to believe that about all the other teams, because you desperately want that to be the case and have a team unload a future top pair D to you. But it's not going to be the Bruins. Sweeney has been pretty clear about what he believes in right now, and it's not dealing away his best future pieces.

McAvoy is a total no go. Not happening.

Carlo? Yes they may be willing to do Carlo + something, but the something won't be as much as you may like. There's no pressure to add Landeskog. They already have a LW better than him. Frank Vatrano has 2 less goals than Landeskog in 22 less games. Of course points aren't all. Of course Landeskog brings other things. But you don't deal away young cheap cost controlled D, for "leadership" when the "leader" you are bringing in hasn't led a team to a gosh darn thing.

I have no idea what Ottawa and Montreal think, but if you are hoping for a haul from Boston, because they are "under pressure" you are wrong.

 

[SoulDynasty]

Duchene + Bigras for Chabot + White + Ceci + Prospect

Sens lose out on both big prospects, but gain Bigras who makes the sting of losing Chabot more reasonable. Didn't want to add Ceci (would prefer Dzingel), but I realize the Sens expansion predicament. The problem is we won't take Phaneuf, so unless you'd rather trade Methot, I don't know how we'd be able to help you guys out in that scenario other than by taking Ceci.

 

[harrisb]

Duchene + Bigras for Chabot + White + Ceci + Prospect

Sens lose out on both big prospects, but gain Bigras who makes the sting of losing Chabot more reasonable. Didn't want to add Ceci (would prefer Dzingel), but I realize the Sens expansion predicament. The problem is we won't take Phaneuf, so unless you'd rather trade Methot, I don't know how we'd be able to help you guys out in that scenario other than by taking Ceci.

So dump our top 4 D and entirely empty the prospect pool? Dorion tells Sakic to look real close at the snowblower blades on this one. You're asking for 2 of the top prospects not in the NHL, a top 4 dman and another prospect (might was well go for Brown while you're at it). Forgot to mention, every one of those assets it cost controlled and under team control for a while. LOL

 

[hockeyheadlines]

You know, I'll totally take your word about there being no pressure on the Avs, because I assume you know your market better than I do.

But I also ask that you show the same deference to those in other markets.

No, the Bruins aren't under pressure to make a move. I realize that you may want to believe that about all the other teams, because you desperately want that to be the case and have a team unload a future top pair D to you. But it's not going to be the Bruins. Sweeney has been pretty clear about what he believes in right now, and it's not dealing away his best future pieces.

McAvoy is a total no go. Not happening.

Carlo? Yes they may be willing to do Carlo + something, but the something won't be as much as you may like. There's no pressure to add Landeskog. They already have a LW better than him. Frank Vatrano has 2 less goals than Landeskog in 22 less games. Of course points aren't all. Of course Landeskog brings other things. But you don't deal away young cheap cost controlled D, for "leadership" when the "leader" you are bringing in hasn't led a team to a gosh darn thing.

I have no idea what Ottawa and Montreal think, but if you are hoping for a haul from Boston, because they are "under pressure" you are wrong.

Well, concerning Montreal, after the dismal game they showed their fans last night, we could become sellers by next week. Time for Bergevin to graduate to the major leagues and do something smart for once.

Everyone should be available right now.

 

[SoulDynasty]

So dump our top 4 D and entirely empty the prospect pool? Dorion tells Sakic to look real close at the snowblower blades on this one. You're asking for 2 of the top prospects not in the NHL, a top 4 dman and another prospect (might was well go for Brown while you're at it)

My understanding from posts here is that White isn't signed by you guys, and would be a casualty in any trade for Duchene. If you guys think you can get Duchene and keep White, then sure, flip White for Dzingel.

But you guys are getting Bigras from us, who is our second best prospect and our best defensive prospect. He's no slouch. He's in there to make it easier to give up Chabot, but it does raise the return value for the Avs. It also solves your expansion issues.

Duchene + Bigras for Chabot + White/Dzingel + Ceci + 1st + prospect.

 

[Rooverick*]

Can hardly wait for Duchene to be moved for far less than Sakic's ridiculous demands.

 

[Sting]

My understanding from posts here is that White isn't signed by you guys, and would be a casualty in any trade for Duchene. If you guys think you can get Duchene and keep White, then sure, flip White for Dzingel.

But you guys are getting Bigras from us, who is our second best prospect and our best defensive prospect. He's no slouch. He's in there to make it easier to give up Chabot, but it does raise the return value for the Avs. It also solves your expansion issues.

Duchene + Bigras for Chabot + White/Dzingel + Ceci + 1st + prospect.

If I'm giving up that package, I'd expect a better return than Duchene. That's franchise player value, which we know Duchene is not.

 

[harrisb]

My understanding from posts here is that White isn't signed by you guys, and would be a casualty in any trade for Duchene. If you guys think you can get Duchene and keep White, then sure, flip White for Dzingel.

But you guys are getting Bigras from us, who is our second best prospect and our best defensive prospect. He's no slouch. He's in there to make it easier to give up Chabot, but it does raise the return value for the Avs. It also solves your expansion issues.

Duchene + Bigras for Chabot + White/Dzingel + Ceci + 1st + prospect.

You will not get White and Chabot. Chabot was arguably the best player at the WJC and will be staying, D are getting crazy value right now and he's a beauty. We still have 2 years to sign White, he plays college so we cannot sign him until his season is over, same with every other college player. Not concerned at all.

Ottawa counters with White + Ceci + 1st for Duchene + Barrie (we add Lazar and/or Hammond if you want them).

Reasoning is that if we are going after Duchene we need top 4 D that can play now, Bigras is a long piece away from Chabot in value and cannot step into our top 4.

 

[Micklebot]

Honestly, the closest comparable trade I can think of is when the Flyers flipped Carter for Voracek, a 1st (Couturier) and a 3rd (Cousins).

I think in a vacuum, Carter had more value going into that trade, but Philly was more motivated to move him while Colorado has no issues holding off.

I'm really not seeing how Duchene would be worth Ceci, one of White/Chabot and a 1st when compared to the Carter deal, but that's me. If that's the asking price, which I have no issues with, I'd pass as the sens. Colorado isn't motivated to move him, so I don't blame them for asking for the moon, but that doesn't mean Ottawa needs to force a deal that they really shouldn't.

 

[TrueGrit]

Honestly, the closest comparable trade I can think of is when the Flyers flipped Carter for Voracek, a 1st (Couturier) and a 3rd (Cousins).

I think in a vacuum, Carter had more value going into that trade, but Philly was more motivated to move him while Colorado has no issues holding off.

I'm really not seeing how Duchene would be worth Ceci, one of White/Chabot and a 1st when compared to the Carter deal, but that's me. If that's the asking price, which I have no issues with, I'd pass as the sens. Colorado isn't motivated to move him, so I don't blame them for asking for the moon, but that doesn't mean Ottawa needs to force a deal that they really shouldn't.

I don't think there's any chance Ottawa moves Chabot. They need someone to play defense next year and Methot/Phaneuf aren't getting younger. I think Ottawa is sitting on a Ceci, Lazar, 1st offer right now. Colorado wants to swap White for Lazar. I can see why it's a sticking point

 

[SoulDynasty]

You will not get White and Chabot. Chabot was arguably the best player at the WJC and will be staying, D are getting crazy value right now and he's a beauty. We still have 2 years to sign White, he plays college so we cannot sign him until his season is over, same with every other college player. Not concerned at all.

Ottawa counters with White + Ceci + 1st for Duchene + Barrie (we add Lazar and/or Hammond if you want them).

Reasoning is that if we are going after Duchene we need top 4 D that can play now, Bigras is a long piece away from Chabot in value and cannot step into our top 4.

Come on man, adding Barrie to Duchene would cripple your team for a long, long while. It's not a reasonable counter at all.

I'm fine with adding to my original proposal, but it would be our depth players going back. Nothing from our core.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

You will not get White and Chabot. Chabot was arguably the best player at the WJC and will be staying, D are getting crazy value right now and he's a beauty. We still have 2 years to sign White, he plays college so we cannot sign him until his season is over, same with every other college player. Not concerned at all.

Ottawa counters with White + Ceci + 1st for Duchene + Barrie (we add Lazar and/or Hammond if you want them).

Reasoning is that if we are going after Duchene we need top 4 D that can play now, Bigras is a long piece away from Chabot in value and cannot step into our top 4.

When do NHL trades ever have one team giving up the 2 most valuable pieces in the trade?

 

[harrisb]

If I'm giving up that package, I'd expect a better return than Duchene. That's franchise player value, which we know Duchene is not.

Yup, he gets it

 

[SoulDynasty]

When do NHL trades ever have one team giving up the 2 most valuable pieces in the trade?

It's a completely unrealistic counter proposal. Sakic is a very polite and respectful man, but I doubt he would be able to hold off on laughing his ass off to that proposal.

 

[islesfan3913]

Do the Avs really have leverage here? Sure Duchene has two years left on his deal, but that's where a lot of his value is, the fact that he's locked ip for two more seasons. The Avs can probably wait until the offseason to move him, but the longer they wait, the less value they'll get back. If this lasts untill next years deadline, they aren't going to get the same package, so I could see teams waiting this out and once the price drops just a bit, a team a team will pull the trigger.

 

[SoulDynasty]

Do the Avs really have leverage here? Sure Duchene has two years left on his deal, but that's where a lot of his value is, the fact that he's locked ip for two more seasons. The Avs can probably wait until the offseason to move him, but the longer they wait, the less value they'll get back. If this lasts untill next years deadline, they aren't going to get the same package, so I could see teams waiting this out and once the price drops just a bit, a team a team will pull the trigger.

The only reason Avs are wanting to trade Duchene is because he/Landeskog are the only pieces that could fetch us our blue chip defensive prospect that we need. If we can't get that, there is zero reason to move them. Zero pressure from fans, zero pressure from management, zero pressure from the players.

So yes, the Avs have all the leverage. If your team wants them, here's the price. Don't want to pay the price? No problem, we'll build around them.

 

[Goulet17]

Do the Avs really have leverage here? Sure Duchene has two years left on his deal, but that's where a lot of his value is, the fact that he's locked ip for two more seasons. The Avs can probably wait until the offseason to move him, but the longer they wait, the less value they'll get back. If this lasts untill next years deadline, they aren't going to get the same package, so I could see teams waiting this out and once the price drops just a bit, a team a team will pull the trigger.

People are stretching to find leverage over the Avs in this particular situation.

The Avs traded ROR with one year left before UFA status and they received a substantial futures package.

A GM may try to wait out the Avs, but some of the GMs in question may not have their jobs in a year or two.

 

[JoemAvs]

Do the Avs really have leverage here? Sure Duchene has two years left on his deal, but that's where a lot of his value is, the fact that he's locked ip for two more seasons. The Avs can probably wait until the offseason to move him, but the longer they wait, the less value they'll get back. If this lasts untill next years deadline, they aren't going to get the same package, so I could see teams waiting this out and once the price drops just a bit, a team a team will pull the trigger.

The Avs had way less leverage with ROR and got a way better deal than most of those proposals in here for him....

Duchene has 3 playoff runs left and has shown that he is not all about the money during his recent contract negotiations.

It does not really matter if his hypothetical value is going down if no one right now is even close to wanting to meet it.

You can always get a bad deal later on. It does not matter if the Avs can't get that extra B+ prospect because they had to wait another year. Don't forget that 2018 1sts will probably worth a hell lot more than 2017 1sts.

There is no incentive to rush making a deal for the Avs if they can't get what they need in return.

Avs need to fix their defense. If teams don't want to give up something that is a good bet to do that (aka a prospect like Sergachev or Chabot +), they can gtfo.


Really hope those Ceci + White + 1st rumors are not true. If they are, I hope it is the 2018 1st atleast....

 

[Charliebox]

I came on here about a month ago and proposed White+Lazar+1st for Duchene.

All the Avs fans ripped me because there was no D involved. Based on what Dater has said (and who knows how legit it is, but it seems like most people think he's 'in the know') White is going to be the main piece to the deal.

If White is the main piece, Chabot will not be included. That's just ridiculous.

I also don't see how or why Ottawa would include Ceci. That seems like a step forward on offense, but a huge step back on D. I'm not saying Ottawa won't do it, but if they do, this trade clearly is for the future (once Chabot can step in) and not for this year.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Lol...there is no difference to the Avs if Duchene is moved before next Wednesday or at the draft. Duchene will still have 2 years left after this season...the only people panicking about him being 'close' to UFA status are fans like you. Duchene is no mercenary...that's not the type of guy he is. He's always been fairly easy to negotiate with and has signed fair deals for him and the team.

At the draft...there's a better chance that more teams will be interested. Some teams will have had disappointing playoff finishes and may decide that they need to make some players available that are currently too important to their playoff run.

Sakic and the Avs know this...that's why they're not likely to come down from their asking price unless another GM gets desperate and actually makes an offer to meet it. Otherwise, we will sit tight and concentrate on moving our expiring contracts + perhaps a few others.

Come on man... There is a difference. Think about teams that are interested in acquiring Duchene at the trade deadline. These teams are playoff teams and if they to acquire Duchene, they get 3 playoffs as appose to 2 if he is traded in the off season.

Like I said... the longer Sakic waits, Duchene's value goes down slightly. Unless Duchene is kept until he has less than 1 year left and teams can try for a sign and trade. Then the Aves actually might get full value for Duchene (like they did with ROR).

Insisting Duchene's value is not affected as he moves closer to UFA is a very silly argument. You should stop now on that debate.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

My understanding from posts here is that White isn't signed by you guys, and would be a casualty in any trade for Duchene. If you guys think you can get Duchene and keep White, then sure, flip White for Dzingel.

But you guys are getting Bigras from us, who is our second best prospect and our best defensive prospect. He's no slouch. He's in there to make it easier to give up Chabot, but it does raise the return value for the Avs. It also solves your expansion issues.

Duchene + Bigras for Chabot + White/Dzingel + Ceci + 1st + prospect.

You want that from Ottawa, you'd better put MacKinnon on the table.

Chabot is untouchable.

 

[JoemAvs]

Come on man... There is a difference. Think about teams that are interested in acquiring Duchene at the trade deadline. These teams are playoff teams and if they to acquire Duchene, they get 3 playoffs as appose to 2 if he is traded in the off season.

Like I said... the longer Sakic waits, Duchene's value goes down slightly. Unless Duchene is kept until he has less than 1 year left and teams can try for a sign and trade. Then the Aves actually might get full value for Duchene (like they did with ROR).

Insisting Duchene's value is not affected as he moves closer to UFA is a very silly argument. You should stop now on that debate.

His hfboards value might go down. Don't think Sakic cares about it.

You don't sell your watch that is worth 100 bucks for 80 bucks just because the watch might only be worth 95 a few months from now...

If no one wants to atleast come close to the 100 bucks, Sakic is better off waiting till the offseason...

 

[harrisb]

It's a completely unrealistic counter proposal. Sakic is a very polite and respectful man, but I doubt he would be able to hold off on laughing his ass off to that proposal.

I think that would be the same as Dorion with your proposal. Please explain to me how Ottawa would do your proposal? They effectively eliminate a top 4 D to add at the forward position and empty one of the best prospect pools in the NHL? Our D would be terrible and unless there is a top 4 coming back you aren't getting Ceci. As mentioned, Chabot is about as untouchable as they come.

Forgot to mention, given Duchene is a natural centre, that leaves us with Turris, Brassard, Pageau, Duchene, Smith (playing wing lately), Kelly and Lazar down the middle. Not exactly sure how wise it would be for Ottawa to have Pageau as the 4th line centre and one of Turris, Brassard or Duchene as 3rd line centre. Our wings would be weak in this scenario and our D even weaker.

 

[SoulDynasty]

I think that would be the same as Dorion with your proposal. Please explain to me how Ottawa would do your proposal? They effectively eliminate a top 4 D to add at the forward position and empty one of the best prospect pools in the NHL? Our D would be terrible and unless there is a top 4 coming back you aren't getting Ceci. As mentioned, Chabot is about as untouchable as they come.

Forgot to mention, given Duchene is a natural centre, that leaves us with Turris, Brassard, Pageau, Duchene, Smith (playing wing lately), Kelly and Lazar down the middle. Not exactly sure how wise it would be for Ottawa to have Pageau as the 4th line centre and one of Turris, Brassard or Duchene as 3rd line centre. Our wings would be weak in this scenario and our D even weaker.

Duchene scored 30 goals last year playing on the wing.

Pretty much what your saying is that you have zero interest trading anything remotely sensible to the needs of the Avs. Well then why post in this thread? Just say you don't want Duchene and move on.

Duchene is being traded for defensive help. If you don't understand that by now, you're in the wrong thread.