replied too quick, but yeah Hall has never scored 30 goals
Center has more value than wingers
That's something that a lot of people keep missing in the equation of value in the Hall for Larsson trade. Was it a fair trade? No; Oilers definitely did not get fair value. But is it as egregious had it been Seguin for Larsson instead of Hall? Ask the GMs in the league, and I would bet if not all 30 would take Seguin over Hall, it would be close. Yet these two have a very similar offensive ouput at this point in their careers. The difference is, Seguin is a center, and it's just a fact that they hold a LOT more value than wingers. All you have to do is look at past trades and the draft. Centers always get valued more, and it's usually not even that close. Another thing is that, even if their total offensive output has been similar to this point, Seguin has put up 30 goal seasons, while Hall has not one under his belt. Just look at the value Kessel got: a winger who has scored 30 goals MANY times, and has flirted with 40 a couple times. If he was a center, how much more value do you suppose he would've got? There would've been at least a few GMs fighting each other to get through the door to work out a deal to trade for him, no question; THAT is how big the value difference is between centers and wingers. So yeah. A top line winger holds a LOT less value than a top line center or top pairing Dman -- by far.
With all of that being what it is, I would say Drai has more value with most GMs at this point (if not all) than Hall. Hall still has a lot of value, but I would just bet Drai has more. Of course, there's no way to know for sure without polling all the GMs and asking them. But that would be my guess, and going by history, it seems logically to be the case. The factors in play that I can think of that give Drai more value are: Drai is a center, Hall is not; Drai makes a LOT less money, and is under control a lot longer (younger); Drai is for sure a #2 C, and tracking to be a big, Kopitar-like #1C, and that is obviously VERY valuable (even if he plays as a #2C behind McDavid, just like Malkin is still a #1 quality C behind Sid); Drai is bigger and stronger; Drai has less serious injuries thus far (knock on wood); Drai is better defensively (he regularly works his butt off to get back and break up plays with ability beyond his years), etc. That's by no means an extensive list, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a lot. Again, Hall has a lot of value, but I truly think Drai has more.
So yeah. Hall for Larsson wasn't a fair trade for us, but people forget just how much the difference in value between wingers and centers. If Hall was a center was it would've been an egregious trade. But he is NOT a center. It's still bad, but NOT that bad. Trading Drai for Larsson -- now THERE would've been a downright HORRIBLE move, up there with the worst of all time. Fans tend to over-rate wingers, yet GMs don't seem to put a ton of value into them. That's something we should think about more often -- there must be a method behind their madness when every GM thinks this way. Also, Larsson still has some untapped potential as well, as many defensive Dman take the longest fully develop and hit their ceiling. Two examples off the top of my head that were Oilers are Jason Smith (finally hit his stride at the age of about 26) and Stve Staios (hit his stride also about 26/27). Have to go back that far because that's how long it's truly been since we had a really solid defensive Dman, which is sad. We really did need Larsson VERY bad. Just showing that exercise should make it obvious. So we'll need to wait about 2 years to truly see what Larsson is to properly judge the trade. Still think it will be a win for NJ, but not as big as most think.
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