You and some others think there is no interest for a guy like Sergachev which is your opinion (right or wrong). Why are you asking the same questions over and over again? Haven't we talked about it enough? It's not a pissing contest, state your opinion and be respectful of others. If you don't like others opinion, that's fine. No need to go crazy.
So all the other trades where players are traded for 1st round draft picks were bad ones according to your logic. One example of many but the Bruins trading Kessel for a package deal to the Leafs is one good comparison to IF the Oilers trade Drai. Kessel was about the same age (21 I believe) and got two 1st round picks (both top 10 picks). That was a bad deal for the Bruns right? How foolish of them to gamble on 2 1st round picks and get Seguin and Hamilton.
Moral of the story... your logic of why the Oilers would trade Drai for top 10 prospects or 1st round picks as being silly is silly in itself. Yes, there are other deals that can be made but getting all disrespectful and going on attack mode because you don't like the deal is childish. Be reasonable please!
"Near 50% and higher for defensemen" for what? They become busts vs impact players? I don't have the actual #'s or time to research this but that seems like a stretch on your part. Any factual info you want to share? I'm curious to see this.
1) Nobody said that they don't want Sergachev or that he doesn't have value. Just that asking for a potential #1C who is already lighting up the NHL is ridiculous. It would be like the Canucks offering Olli Joulevi and Luca Sbisa for Alex Galchenyuk.
2) The Kessel trade was made because the Bruins didn't want to lock him up long term and opted to move on from him rather than sign him to a big money deal. The Oilers have no desire to part ways with Draisaitl. And for the record, if the Leafs didn't suck so bad in that time that trade would have been awful. Can Montreal offer a similar package? No, they don't have the parts to do it. Sergachev would get them halfway to the Kessel like return. If it was (for example) Arizona's next 2 first rounders that would be a completely different discussion than "Sergachev and junk for Draisaitl".
3) I don't think you understand the word logic. You certainly aren't using it properly. Because I stated that the Oilers don't have any interest in a prospect as the main return for Draisaitl doesn't mean that in other scenarios that wouldn't be the case. It just doesn't work for us in this scenario. And your valuation is ridiculous.
4) Don't ask others to be reasonable when the entire premise of your involvement in this thread (Sergachev and Beaulieau for Draisaitl) is unreasonable both in terms of value and our team needs. I also wouldn't ask others to be reasonable when you have been told dozens of times why it doesn't work for the Oilers and you are still arguing about it and trying to make it sound like a good deal when it is not.
5) As per your request for evidence, absolutely I will comply, and hopefully this will let you know that just because a defenseman had/has high potential doesn't mean he will get there. I'll go from 2005 to 2012. These are all the top 10 draft pick defensemen from that time.
2005 - Jack Johnson (3), Brian Lee (9), Luc Bourdon (10) - 1 average defenseman who didn't reach his potential, one bust, one "incomplete" as Bourdon tragically passed away.
2006 - Erik Johnson (1) - good defenseman, not elite, but a top pair guy for sure.
2007 - Thomas Hickey (4), Karl Alzner (5), Keaton Ellerby (10) - 1 good shutdown defenseman, 1 depth NHL'er, 1 bust
2008 - Drew Doughty (2), Zach Bogosian (3), Alex Pietrangelo (4), Luke Schenn (5) - 2 elite #1 defensemen, 1 good 2nd pair defenseman, 1 fringe NHLer/bust.
2009 - Victor Hedman (3), Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jared Cowen (10) - 2 number ones, 1 bust
2010 - Erik Gudbranson (3), Dylan McIlrath (10) - depth guys at best
2011 - Adam Larsson (4), Dougie Hamilton (7?), Jonas Brodin (10) - still developing, only Hamilton is looking like he could be a true #1 at this point. Larsson and Brodin are good, but are looking like 2/3 guys.
2012 - Ryan Murray (2), Griffin Reinhart (4), Morgan Reilly (5), Humpus Lindholm (6), Matt Dumba (7), Derrick Pouliot (8), Jacob Trouba (9), Slater Koekoek (10) - 2 established top liners (Lindhom and Reilly), 3 regular NHLers (Murray, Dumba and Trouba), 3 yet to establish themselves/potential busts (Reinhart, Pouliot, Koekoek)
I'll stop there, as its too hard to predict the more recent draft years. How many elite defensemen are there? 3 so far, with a chance for a couple of others to get there. How many non-elite, but top pairing guys are there? I would say 4, but wouldn't argue if 2 others were included. That is 8 top pair defensemen taken in the top 10 out of 25 selections (not counting Bourdon as we don't know what he would have been had he not passed). That's below 50% for top 10 drafted defensemen actually ending up as what we need (#1 defenseman). For the record, there are 10 who are bottom pairing defensemen or outright busts in that group. So yeah, draft position of Sergachev by itself means nothing and we won't place a ton of value on him just because of it. That doesn't mean that he isn't good, just that defense prospects are far too unpredictable in their development.
For the record, you would have had the time to do that research if you hadn't spent the last two days arguing that the Oilers would be better off with Sergachev than Draisaitl. Took me 5 minutes thanks to wikipedia.