JVR questions

[rumman]

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I'm interested in the rebuilding of a once great dynasty, not throwing away assets that can make it happen for the difference of having/not having JVR on the team for the remainder of the year.

 

[The Apologist]

I'm interested in the rebuilding of a once great dynasty, not throwing away assets that can make it happen for the difference of having/not having JVR on the team for the remainder of the year.

As am I. I'm also a big proponent of experience and reward. To me, trading a 30 goal scorer for essentially the Goat MAYBE five years down the road does not sound like good management to me, but actually equates to throwing away assets.

However I just don't think we're ever going to see eye to eye on this.

 

[Ignatius Reilly]

I'm interested in the rebuilding of a once great dynasty, not throwing away assets that can make it happen for the difference of having/not having JVR on the team for the remainder of the year.

So am I.

From everything he's said, I think Shanny is too. I'll bet Lou and Babs are on board with that too.

So..... maybe this is how you build one. Maybe you start getting into the playoffs, and you go deeper each year and learn from that and get better. I don't know. They should know. It's there full-time job and they work in the league all day every day.

 

[rumman]

As am I. I'm also a big proponent of experience and reward. To me, trading a 30 goal scorer for essentially the Goat MAYBE five years down the road does not sound like good management to me, but actually equates to throwing away assets.

However I just don't think we're ever going to see eye to eye on this.

If the Leaf win the cup, or even win a couple of rounds you'll have been right, but if they go out in the first round, you'll have been wrong imo. We'll see how this plays out over the playoffs, UNLESS Lou moves him.

 

[rumman]

So am I.

From everything he's said, I think Shanny is too. I'll bet Lou and Babs are on board with that too.

So..... maybe this is how you build one. Maybe you start getting into the playoffs, and you go deeper each year and learn from that and get better. I don't know. They should know. It's there full-time job and they work in the league all day every day.

perhaps, many here agree with that scenario, me I guess I'm not into wasting assets, but that's just my opinion.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I'm just ready to stop opinioning on trading Bozak and Jvr. 2/3 of a highly offensive third line. I'm fine with them now that Marner is not with them.

No other team has that kind of offense on the third line off the top of my head.

 

[Ignatius Reilly]

If the Leaf win the cup, or even win a couple of rounds you'll have been right, but if they go out in the first round, you'll have been wrong imo. We'll see how this plays out over the playoffs, UNLESS Lou moves him.

There's a chance we'll get bounced in round 1, and there's a chance we'll get to the final. I don't think JVR's presence or absence in either scenario will really prove anything. Keeping him improves our odds.

We're a better team than last year, so I expect we'll go deeper. But ANYTHING can happen in the playoffs.

 

[rumman]

There's a chance we'll get bounced in round 1, and there's a chance we'll get to the final. I don't think JVR's presence or absence in either scenario will really prove anything. Keeping him improves our odds.

We're a better team than last year, so I expect we'll go deeper. But ANYTHING can happen in the playoffs.

true enough, and if they traded him anything could happen on the draft floor, either scenario has elements of risk imo.

 

[The Apologist]

If the Leaf win the cup, or even win a couple of rounds you'll have been right, but if they go out in the first round, you'll have been wrong imo. We'll see how this plays out over the playoffs, UNLESS Lou moves him.

I guess we'll see then. If he does make the trade and the player does end up being the next Goat are you then wrong?

And I really wouldn't hold my breath waiting on a JVR/Bozak/Kona for picks dump.

 

[rumman]

I guess we'll see then. If he does make the trade and the player does end up being the next Goat are you then wrong?

And I really wouldn't hold my breath waiting on a JVR/Bozak/Kona for picks dump.

guess I would have been wrong if the pick turns out to be a bust, not necessarily the next Goat, cause he still might have a future. I get your not a fan of draft picks, but have you ever considered that if they traded any of the impending UFA's for picks and or prospects and then parlayed them into pieces of a package for a #1 RHD or some other proven NHL player who would have a future with the Leafs that that might be worth it since in all likelihood they'll make the playoffs with or without JVR?

 

[kyle n00bas]

It was actually just a guess on my end. Feel free to prove me wrong though

Cullen: Updated NHL Draft Pick Values, Observations

It's a few years old now, but the data from 1990-2009 tells us that skaters taken in the first round have a 31.3% chance of panning out as a top 6 forward/top 4 d-man or better, a 51.9% chance as a 4th liner/7th d-man or worse, and a 16.8% chance as an average top 9 forward/top 6 d-man. In the 16-31 range we'd be picking, our chance of landing a top 6 forward/top 4 d-man seems to hover somewhere around 20%. Bear in mind those numbers are probably a little more favourable now, with all the advances in scouting since the 90's.

 

[The Apologist]

Cullen: Updated NHL Draft Pick Values, Observations

It's a few years old now, but the data from 1990-2009 tells us that skaters taken in the first round have a 31.3% chance of panning out as a top 6 forward/top 4 d-man or better, a 51.9% chance as a 4th liner/7th d-man or worse, and a 16.8% chance as an average top 9 forward/top 6 d-man. Bear in mind the numbers are probably more favourable now with all of the advances in scouting since the 90's.

Ok, but you're lumping top 5 picks in with 20-30 picks now.
Checking the 20-30 picks (likely what JVR would bring in on the high end) I see my 75% isn't far off.

 

[The Apologist]

guess I would have been wrong if the pick turns out to be a bust, not necessarily the next Goat, cause he still might have a future. I get your not a fan of draft picks, but have you ever considered that if they traded any of the impending UFA's for picks and or prospects and then parlayed them into pieces of a package for a #1 RHD or some other proven NHL player who would have a future with the Leafs that that might be worth it since in all likelihood they'll make the playoffs with or without JVR?

Yes, not trading a 30/60 guy for a late first means I don't like picks.
I see rational discussion has left the building. Have a good night.

 

[Drumdizzle]

So am I.

From everything he's said, I think Shanny is too. I'll bet Lou and Babs are on board with that too.

So..... maybe this is how you build one. Maybe you start getting into the playoffs, and you go deeper each year and learn from that and get better. I don't know. They should know. It's there full-time job and they work in the league all day every day.

We can all agree that the playoffs would be a great experience for the leafs to learn and get better. Would it not be good for the team to experience the playoffs without JVR as he likely wont be there next year? Let the guys who will be around longer term get more minutes? Im not convinced that he's the piece alone that's going to get them over the hump or that the Leafs are a way worse team without him. This is year 1 of many with this group of guys. If JVR is out it allows guy like Johnson or Sosh to get that valuable playoff experience.

 

[kyle n00bas]

Ok, but you're lumping top 5 picks in with 20-30 picks now.
Checking the 20-30 picks (likely what JVR would bring in on the high end) I see my 75% isn't far off.

I edited my post to make a note of that.

Some will agree to disagree I'm sure, but assuming a 1-in-4 shot at a quality, cost-controlled young player and a B-level prospect were on the table, I'm uncertain how JVR's value as a "self-rental" to our team at this particular time can possibly outweigh that. The only explanation that seems to make any sense has to do with sheer optics like Gary Nylund mentioned.

 

[The Apologist]

We can all agree that the playoffs would be a great experience for the leafs to learn and get better. Would it not be good for the team to experience the playoffs without JVR as he likely wont be there next year? Let the guys who will be around longer term get more minutes? Im not convinced that he's the piece alone that's going to get them over the hump or that the Leafs are a way worse team without him. This is year 1 of many with this group of guys. If JVR is out it allows guy like Johnson or Sosh to get that valuable playoff experience.

I'm not sure Sosh is in the plans honestly.
The argument is a very good one, thank you. I just don't see the management taking that direction for a low pick.

 

[The Apologist]

I edited my post to make a note of that.

Some will agree to disagree I'm sure, but assuming a 1-in-4 shot at a quality, cost-controlled young player and a B-level prospect were on the table, I'm uncertain how JVR's value as a "self-rental" to our team at this particular time can possibly outweigh that.

Fair enough. For me, trading for a 25% chance at a JVR at this point in time doesn't make sense unless I know for a fact that I have something now that fits there and that JVR is not an option next year AND I have no chance at winning this year. But I hate draft picks so what do I know?

 

[Drumdizzle]

JVR with the GWG! Would we have won this game w/o him? Lol

 

[Ignatius Reilly]

JVR with the GWG! Would we have won this game w/o him? Lol

Probably not.

But that's okay, we've got a huge cushion so we can just slide backwards into the playoffs, then one-and-done and a late 1st pick.

That sounds.... great....

 

[Drumdizzle]

Probably not.

But that's okay, we've got a huge cushion so we can just slide backwards into the playoffs, then one-and-done and a late 1st pick.

That sounds.... great....

So without JVR this teams hopeless? Can't say I agree with that. And there's a good chance they still would have won that game.

 

[The Apologist]

So without JVR this teams hopeless? Can't say I agree with that. And there's a good chance they still would have won that game.

Nah, pretty sure any team in the league could lose a 30/60 guy and not miss a beat.

But we're not stopping there. We want to also offload a .6ppg center and one of our better defensive forwards (looked damn good in playoff mode tonight) too.

 

[Battle Lin]

say what you want about jvr, he has weaknesses, but the guy knows how to put up points consistently

 

[Drumdizzle]

Nah, pretty sure any team in the league could lose a 30/60 guy and not miss a beat.

But we're not stopping there. We want to also offload a .6ppg center and one of our better defensive forwards (looked damn good in playoff mode tonight) too.

I'm not for moving out Bozak and Komarov. I don't think they carry enough value.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Per 60 mins, he's actually one of our less productive forwards at 5v5, ahead of only Brown, Komarov and Moore. Our PP could take a hit in his absence, but even then, with Matthews seeing less PP minutes than the average #1C, we might get away with just leaning on him and Nylander/Marner a bit more and never see much of a difference in the overall efficiency of our powerplay.

I don't think replacing JVR with Kapanen and calling Johnsson up to play on the 4th line makes us a better team right now, I just think that, considering the particular circumstances of our particular hockey club, the value of an additional 1st round pick (and maybe a decent prospect) should exceed that of having JVR for a handful of regular season games and a playoff round.

If it was a given that we won't last longer than a round in the playoffs, we might as well trade all our pending UFAs for assets.

I think this roster as currently constructed is capable of getting past Boston or Tampa Bay in the post season. If we add a quality 4th line centre, we will increase our chances.

If we give up JVR, we lose one of our top goal scorers and make it that much harder to advance. He has his faults, but he just flat out produces year after year, and secondary scoring is paramount in the playoffs.

 

[thewave]

If it was a given that we won't last longer than a round in the playoffs, we might as well trade all our pending UFAs for assets.

I think this roster as currently constructed is capable of getting past Boston or Tampa Bay in the post season. If we add a quality 4th line centre, we will increase our chances.

If we give up JVR, we lose one of our top goal scorers and make it that much harder to advance. He has his faults, but he just flat out produces year after year, and secondary scoring is paramount in the playoffs.

No point talking about moving JVR now anyways. There isn't really a chance at this point. The only guys I would look at are Sosh Leivo Bozak Polak Martin at this point.