JVR questions

[saltming]

Agreed, safe to assume the Leafs will make the Playoffs again this year.

Knock on wood!
We do have a nice cushion and are playing well so it makes sense for management to plan for that.

I wonder if we look at it the other way? What are the chances that the pick we get for JVR develops into a player of his caliber that is ready in time to help this group of players make a cup push vs what increase in chance do we have in winning the cup or a good run by keeping JVR?
What's the better percentage?
I'm asking because I'm interested and completely mathematically illiterate

 

[saltming]

Ok then. I think playoff run used to mean winning a round or two, going deep, making some noise etc. but times change and words don't always mean what they used to mean. Just checking.

That's why I prefixed it with "going into" vs saying a long run.
Who knows you could get disqualified at the start or pull a hamstring half way through haha

 

[ShaneFalco]

I dunno - as I posted from an article earlier, these stats don't exactly scream "vital for playoffs"

JVR is ninth among forwards in even strength ice time per game, and 10th in average time on per game. He has never broken 19 minutes in a single game this season. Last season, he was seventh in even strength ice time per game and ninth in total ice time per game among forwards. In the playoffs, that dropped to eighth in even strength time, and he remained at ninth in total ice time per game.

And to lose out on a high pick and perhaps a good prospect.....eeeesh

 

[ACC1224]

Knock on wood!
We do have a nice cushion and are playing well so it makes sense for management to plan for that.

I wonder if we look at it the other way? What are the chances that the pick we get for JVR develops into a player of his caliber that is ready in time to help this group of players make a cup push vs what increase in chance do we have in winning the cup or a good run by keeping JVR?
What's the better percentage?
I'm asking because I'm interested and completely mathematically illiterate

I doubt the percentage wouldn't be very high and I don't really like JVR.
The thinking of some I believe is that something is better than nothing.

 

[kyle n00bas]

I dunno - as I posted from an article earlier, these stats don't exactly scream "vital for playoffs"

JVR is ninth among forwards in even strength ice time per game, and 10th in average time on per game. He has never broken 19 minutes in a single game this season. Last season, he was seventh in even strength ice time per game and ninth in total ice time per game among forwards. In the playoffs, that dropped to eighth in even strength time, and he remained at ninth in total ice time per game.

And to lose out on a high pick and perhaps a good prospect.....eeeesh

If we traded a 1st + a good prospect away for JVR at the deadline to try to beef up for a run against the Bruins/Lightning, people would be up in arms, but somehow doing the exact opposite is a ridiculous suggestion.

At risk of too closely paraphrasing my previous post.... yes, it's unusual to trade a scoring winger before a playoff run. It's also unusual to be so far ahead of the next team in your division that you've already more or less clinched a playoff spot in February, to already know which two teams you're facing in the first couple of rounds (and that you don't match up well against either of them), to have a valuable scoring winger on an expiring contract, unlikely to re-sign, and a glut of wingers who can be inserted into or moved up the lineup. The reason it doesn't happen often, at least in part, is because teams aren't typically in such a position.

 

[GoldenGOOSE]

So much fur would fly if the Leafs traded their UFA's, its probably not worth it from their perspective to have to go through all that.

Seasoned Leaf fans would love to see it, the Leafs stockpiling more youth. But most Leaf fans are just fans, and they want any possible shot, to win something.

Lets see how the team looks tonight. Best thing would be for Tampa to blow the buds out of the water and possibly convince Shanny to keep stockpiling assets.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I dunno - as I posted from an article earlier, these stats don't exactly scream "vital for playoffs"

JVR is ninth among forwards in even strength ice time per game, and 10th in average time on per game. He has never broken 19 minutes in a single game this season. Last season, he was seventh in even strength ice time per game and ninth in total ice time per game among forwards. In the playoffs, that dropped to eighth in even strength time, and he remained at ninth in total ice time per game.

And to lose out on a high pick and perhaps a good prospect.....eeeesh

Yup. Every time I see someone say trading JVR is tanking our playoff chances I just quietly shake my head.

 

[saltming]

I doubt the percentage wouldn't be very high and I don't really like JVR.
The thinking of some I believe is that something is better than nothing.

I'm on the fence with this one so for me it's win win.
I see the value of both potentials.
Also this is a good problem for a team to have. I think we have a good young core now so losing a JVR for "nothing" won't be as traumatic as it would have been if we were really just a pretender fooling ourselves that we are close or in the track to being a contender.
If we seemed to be pretenders then I would pack JVR off even if we were in the same playoff potential spot we are in now because I know that what he will bring back will be needed but right now we look very core ready. What we need we can draft and get from Europe or UFA routes.

 

[ACC1224]

Yup. Every time I see someone say trading JVR is tanking our playoff chances I just quietly shake my head.

If he's not traded what can we assume their reason is for not moving him?
(assuming of course that they do things with a purpose in mind).

 

[saltming]

Yup. Every time I see someone say trading JVR is tanking our playoff chances I just quietly shake my head.

I wouldn't say tanking in the least but scoring is important in the playoffs so the secondary and tertiary scoring threats do increase chances of winning. Having 3 scoring lines makes us much more dangerous than having 2.
Double shifting chara is reasonable but triple shifting him is silly

 

[Gary Nylund]

If he's not traded what can we assume their reason is for not moving him?
(assuming of course that they do things with a purpose in mind).

There are probably a number of factors. Unfortunately, one of them might be "optics".

 

[Gary Nylund]

I wouldn't say tanking in the least but scoring is important in the playoffs so the secondary and tertiary scoring threats do increase chances of winning. Having 3 scoring lines makes us much more dangerous than having 2.
Double shifting chara is reasonable but triple shifting him is silly

Sure, JVR is a good player and we're better with him than without him. I think we're about 40% to beat BOS or TB, that goes down without JVR, maybe to 38%? 36? Who knows, impossible to accurately calculate such a thing.

What I have a problem with is the notion that trading JVR is the same as giving up, that's just nonsense.

 

[kyle n00bas]

There are probably a number of factors. Unfortunately, one of them might be "optics".

That's what it feels like. It's just a tough sell and, to some, will come off like management are giving up any hope of upsetting the Bruins/Lightning.

 

[Mess]

I think Leafs view Marleau (whom they got asset free) and gave essentially JVR raise to, as partial return on him, when he walks.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I dunno - as I posted from an article earlier, these stats don't exactly scream "vital for playoffs"

JVR is ninth among forwards in even strength ice time per game, and 10th in average time on per game. He has never broken 19 minutes in a single game this season. Last season, he was seventh in even strength ice time per game and ninth in total ice time per game among forwards. In the playoffs, that dropped to eighth in even strength time, and he remained at ninth in total ice time per game.

And to lose out on a high pick and perhaps a good prospect.....eeeesh

Fair enough, but if you measure his productivity taking into his account his limited ice time, it's very impressive and not easy to replace internally.

Is he vital? No, but I'm not sure a late first round pick is worth losing a 30 goal scorer going into the playoffs.

We are not short of depth at forward in the system. We can afford to keep him and let him walk as a UFA if that's what it comes down to.

 

[ACC1224]

There are probably a number of factors. Unfortunately, one of them might be "optics".

Agreed, how it looks to the players and fans would be the biggest reason, IMO.

 

[saltming]

Sure, JVR is a good player and we're better with him than without him. I think we're about 40% to beat BOS or TB, that goes down without JVR, maybe to 38%? 36? Who knows, impossible to accurately calculate such a thing.

What I have a problem with is the notion that trading JVR is the same as giving up, that's just nonsense.

Ahh ya I don't think trading him is giving up but I do think it can be seen as making it harder and would that be taken as a slight against a team that's played and worked together for the whole season to get to this point?
Like putting and extra obstacle in their way.

 

[kyle n00bas]

Fair enough, but if you measure his productivity taking into his account his limited ice time, it's very impressive and not easy to replace internally.

Per 60 mins, he's actually one of our less productive forwards at 5v5, ahead of only Brown, Komarov and Moore. Our PP could take a hit in his absence, but even then, with Matthews seeing less PP minutes than the average #1C, we might get away with just leaning on him and Nylander/Marner a bit more and never see much of a difference in the overall efficiency of our powerplay.

I don't think replacing JVR with Kapanen and calling Johnsson up to play on the 4th line makes us a better team right now, I just think that, considering the particular circumstances of our particular hockey club, the value of an additional 1st round pick (and maybe a decent prospect) should exceed that of having JVR for a handful of regular season games and a playoff round.

 

[rumman]

If he's not traded what can we assume their reason is for not moving him?
(assuming of course that they do things with a purpose in mind).

I'm not sure of the purpose, but the reason imo is short shortsightedness.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ahh ya I don't think trading him is giving up but I do think it can be seen as making it harder and would that be taken as a slight against a team that's played and worked together for the whole season to get to this point?
Like putting and extra obstacle in their way.

Yeah I know, optics. I think the players wouldn't take is as a slight but that's me.

 

[The Apologist]

Ahh ya I don't think trading him is giving up but I do think it can be seen as making it harder and would that be taken as a slight against a team that's played and worked together for the whole season to get to this point?
Like putting and extra obstacle in their way.

Especially when trading him for what essentially has a 75% chance of being a 4th liner or worse..... Someday....

 

[rumman]

Especially when trading him for what essentially has a 75% chance of being a 4th liner or worse..... Someday....

Draft Scmaft.

 

[The Apologist]

Draft Scmaft.

 

[kyle n00bas]

Especially when trading him for what essentially has a 75% chance of being a 4th liner or worse..... Someday....

Where did you get this number?

 

[The Apologist]

Where did you get this number?

It was actually just a guess on my end. Feel free to prove me wrong though