Confirmed with Link: Jets sign Hellebuyck to 1 year $2.25M contract

[Calendal]

If the Jets are going to be spending over $5 million on Helle's new contract, the least they can do is replace Flaherty with the goaltending coach who worked with him over the summer.

But that would mean the coach could not work with him during the summer...

 

[Aavco Cup]

But that would mean the coach could not work with him during the summer...

Besides I thought that guy was a motion dynamics guy. Not really a goaltender coach per se. He trained Helle's muscles to move differently.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

All I'm saying is that maybe they'll be a bit more cautious because goalies are Voodoo

Are they though? This is thrown around so much, but consistently we've seen that goalies that do well at lower levels do well at the NHL level*. Same as other players. Many of us said that Hellebuyck was going to be the guy based on his college and AHL play. Many of us questioned the Pavelec signing due to the mediocre minor league play and up and down NHL track record. Goalies are only "voodoo" when you are looking at short sample sizes then making longterm decisions based on those sample sizes (Pavelec, Hammond, Dubnyk, etc).

*=When you throw away team stats like wins.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Are they though? This is thrown around so much, but consistently we've seen that goalies that do well at lower levels do well at the NHL level*. Same as other players. Many of us said that Hellebuyck was going to be the guy based on his college and AHL play. Many of us questioned the Pavelec signing due to the mediocre minor league play and up and down NHL track record. Goalies are only "voodoo" when you are looking at short sample sizes then making longterm decisions based on those sample sizes (Pavelec, Hammond, Dubnyk, etc).

*=When you throw away team stats like wins.

I know eventually they have to put faith in someone eventually and Helle could be that guy. But Pavelec is still a burning memory. Term was the real enemy in the Pav deal. I have no idea if they would be thinking anything like this or not TBH. Just suggesting something outside the box.

 

[jets2020champs]

Everyone can remember those shots from the blue line that would get past Hellebuyck last year. This year, he’s just sticking his glove further out. ( I read a previous poster who had analyzed his game ).
The one thing I wanted to add is that he’s not flashy. Some other goalies would be doing windmills with many of the glove saves he’s done this year.

 

[White Out 902]

thing about pavs was he was inconsistent and only a good goaltender for what, 3 seasons of his career in the NHL? Tops? And in the AHL/juniors he was just as hit or miss. He def sold himself though with his ego and his agents demands.

 

[Gm0ney]

If I am his agent I want a number that starts with a 5 if I am Chevy I want a number that starts with a 4. I went through a couple goalie contracts signed recently during their RFA years with trying to buyout UFA years.

All stats are as of the date the player signed their contract.

2014
Semyon Varlamov $5.900 AAV for 5 Years=$29.5 Million
9.18% of Salary Cap when signed
1 Year left of RFA Status when contract signed (Signed mid-season 2014)
Regular Season-189 GP .915 Save Percentage
Post Season-19 GP .915 Save Percentage
After extension signed during mid-season finished 2nd in Vezina Voting in 2014

Varlamov's agent hopefully got a raise himself after getting Varlamov this deal

2015
Sergei Bobrovsky $7.425 Million AAV for 4 Years=$29.7 Million
10.17% of Salary Cap when signed
1 Year left of RFA Status when contract signed (Signed mid-season 2015)
Regular Season-208 GP .918 Save Percentage (excluding Flyers 125 GP .924 Save Percentage)
Post Season-13 GP .890 Save Percentage
1st in Vezina Voting 2013
8th in Vezina Voting 2014

Contract was based off of being a Vezina winner and his dominance with the Jackets, deservedly so.

2015
Braden Holtby $6.100 AAV for 5 Years=$30.5 Million
8.36% of Salary Cap when signed
2 Years left of RFA Status when contract signed
Regular Season-178 GP .921 Save Percentage
Post Season-34 GP .936 Save Percentage
4th in Vezina Voting in 2015

Not much to add other than this probably closes the book on Helle getting anything starting with a 6.

2016
Frederik Andersen $5.000 Million AAV for 5 Years=$25.0 Million
6.85% of Salary Cap when signed
1 Year left of RFA Status when contract signed
Regular Season-125 GP .918 Save Percentage
Post Season-28 GP .916 Save Percentage

Was more consistent in his 3 years of NHL experience than Hellebuyck but only had more than 50 starts once in the 3 years. He also had a good playoff track record at the time of signing.

2016 (still had 1 year of term left on last RFA deal)
Jake Allen $4.350 Million AAV for 4 Years=$17.4 Million
5.96% of Salary Cap when signed
0 Years left of RFA Status when contract signed (still had 1 year of term left on last RFA deal)
Regular Season-99 GP .915 Save Percentage
Post Season-10 GP .902 Save Percentage

Inked his deal coming off of a .920 Save Percentage in 47 GP, not a bad deal for the Blues at all if you take his last year of RFA plus the 4 years of UFA=3.950 AAV for 5 years=$19.75 Million.

Current Situation to Monitor
Robin Lehner
1 Year left of RFA Status
Regular Season-201 GP .916 Save Percentage
Post Season-2 GP .920 Save Percentage

Finally
Connor Hellebuyck
2 Years left of RFA Status
Regular Season 121 GP .916 Save Percentage
Post Season-0 GP

Couple of items that we have in our favor. One thing that helps is Lehner is really the only upcoming RFA goalie with a track record and he can't touch Hellebuyck this year, was going to include Mrazek but he is pretty much a backup this year. The other is Hellebuyck having 2 years of RFA Status left. We can see above that Holtby had 2 years of RFA control left when he signed his deal and the Caps got him at almost 2% less of the overall cap compared to what the Jackets gave Bob.

I am not going to predict the future but as of today I think Frederik Andersen is the most fair comparison. If the cap does go to 80 Million and Hellebuyck was given the same cap percentage it would amount to an AAV of $5.480. Given that Hellebuyck has 2 years left of RFA I think we get a little discount there, so lets go with...

$5.250 Million AAV for 5 Years=$26.25 Million

Fun project for a Monday night

Nice work WiscoJet - just to put those numbers into perspective, if there's an $80M cap next year, here are the equivalents:

Bobrovsky (10.17%) = $8.136M AAV
Varlamov (9.18%) = $7.344M AAV
Holtby (8.36%) = $6.688M AAV
Andersen (6.85%) = $5.48M AAV
Allen (5.96%) = $4.768M

I think a lot depends on what happens in the playoffs - deep run, Cup win, could mean Bobrovsky numbers. As it is, anything under $6M AAV on a 4+ year deal is probably pretty reasonable.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Jets only have 2 games left at home....doubt he starts both



It’s been one incredible season for Winnipeg Jets netminder Connor Hellebuyck.
The former fifth round pick ranks eighth in the NHL with a .923 save percentage and third in total wins with 40. With another victory at BellMTS place, he could would make history in front of a home crowd. After compiling 28 wins, Hellebuyck sits only one win behind former Calgary Flames legend Mikka Kiprusoff for most all-time wins at home. The UMass-Lowell product earned his most recent W in a 5-4 overtime effort over the Boston Bruins.

 

[puck stoppa]

Are they though? This is thrown around so much, but consistently we've seen that goalies that do well at lower levels do well at the NHL level*. Same as other players. Many of us said that Hellebuyck was going to be the guy based on his college and AHL play. Many of us questioned the Pavelec signing due to the mediocre minor league play and up and down NHL track record. Goalies are only "voodoo" when you are looking at short sample sizes then making longterm decisions based on those sample sizes (Pavelec, Hammond, Dubnyk, etc).

*=When you throw away team stats like wins.

Somehow I missed this post. You're bang on, can't stand how often that term gets tossed around.

 

[Keystone]

While nobody is gonna complain about Helle’s season cause he’s been fantastic, I’m sure Chevy had him penciled in for suppressed numbers and an extension around the 3 mil mark this year. Win some, lose some signing contacts, but it’s a good problem when they step up like Helle has this year.

 

[GNP]

Because Helle will be able to command in the 45. mil to 5 mil range per year -- I think it's time to waive good bye to Mason, who cannot stay healthy. The Jet's will need to shop for a good backup to Helle. I wished they would have picked up Raanta or Grubaeur in the last expansion draft --"we'd be sitting pretty."

 

[puck stoppa]

Because Helle will be able to command in the 45. mil to 5 mil range per year -- I think it's time to waive good bye to Mason, who cannot stay healthy. The Jet's will need to shop for a good backup to Helle. I wished they would have picked up Raanta or Grubaeur in the last expansion draft --"we'd be sitting pretty."

Kinkaid was a great cheap option. He's having a good year.

 

[blues10]

Because Helle will be able to command in the 45. mil to 5 mil range per year -- I think it's time to waive good bye to Mason, who cannot stay healthy. The Jet's will need to shop for a good backup to Helle. I wished they would have picked up Raanta or Grubaeur in the last expansion draft --"we'd be sitting pretty."

Where will Mason go? No one will want him as a starter. How much will the Jets have to retain on his salary?

Would rather not have a bad contract coming back.

 

[one other person]

Where will Mason go? No one will want him as a starter. How much will the Jets have to retain on his salary?

Would rather not have a bad contract coming back.

Could he be a 1B somewhere? You have to retain close to a million to move him I’m thinking.
I’m hoping that Helle will be rock solid at least throughout the playoffs; then moving Mase will be a no-brainer.

 

[blues10]

Could he be a 1B somewhere? You have to retain close to a million to move him I’m thinking.
I’m hoping that Helle will be rock solid at least throughout the playoffs; then moving Mase will be a no-brainer.

Still not sure of the market for a guy coming off 2 concussions who will have played less than 15 games and has questionable knees.

I am sure the contract can be moves but prospects will likely be leaving as well to get rid of that contract.

Clearly Helle is now the #1 going forward. Having a reliable back up will be important moving forward.

It’s possible Mason plays another season here.

 

[one other person]

Still not sure of the market for a guy coming off 2 concussions who will have played less than 15 games and has questionable knees.

I am sure the contract can be moves but prospects will likely be leaving as well to get rid of that contract.

Clearly Helle is now the #1 going forward. Having a reliable back up will be important moving forward.

It’s possible Mason plays another season here.

Quite possibly. I was thinking we lose a second and get a fourth or something like that. Not 100% sure if we’ll need to move him in the summer.

 

[10Ducky10]

24m for 5 years.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Still not sure of the market for a guy coming off 2 concussions who will have played less than 15 games and has questionable knees.

I am sure the contract can be moves but prospects will likely be leaving as well to get rid of that contract.

Clearly Helle is now the #1 going forward. Having a reliable back up will be important moving forward.

It’s possible Mason plays another season here.

If we have to retain and/or pay in prospects or picks to get rid of the contract it makes far more sense to just keep him for the 1 additional year. It isn't like there is another 4 years to go.

If worse comes to worst he can be sent down to the Moose. The nearly 1 mil in cap relief would be enough (or very near to it) to pay for a better backup.

 

[Calendal]

I think Mason will be a serviceable backup next year. Perhaps overpaid but there’s good chance that this season is just a fluke.

Knee issues can hopefully be fixed in the offseason while concussion problems are just randomness.

 

[Deedog99]

I think Mason will be a serviceable backup next year. Perhaps overpaid but there’s good chance that this season is just a fluke.

Knee issues can hopefully be fixed in the offseason while concussion problems are just randomness.

Not a chance that a team takes mason. Might as well suck it up and keep him as backup for one more year. Imagine if he had been signed for 4 or 5?

 

[Channelcat]

Not a chance that a team takes mason. Might as well suck it up and keep him as backup for one more year. Imagine if he had been signed for 4 or 5?

Yes, he'll be here backing up Helle. A bit overpaid, but not drastically

 

[Board Bard]

Goalies have so much voodoo in them that next year Helly could be Mason and Mason could be Helly. Keep Mason, he's bound to have a better year than this one, and you sure as hell don't want Comrie as a last resort.

 

[Channelcat]

24m for 5 years.

That would be a screaming bargain. Without Helle we would be right where we were last year.

 

[tntkid]

That would definitely be a bargain with Chevy grinning from ear to ear.

I see Hellybuyck getting at least 6.5 million a year.

24m for 5 years.

 

[10Ducky10]

That would definitely be a bargain with Chevy grinning from ear to ear.

I see Hellybuyck getting at least 6.5 million a year.

Not with Chevy as GM...
If we trade Mason, who is the backup next year? Comrie?