Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 16-17 Part XVII

[scarbrow21]

Its possible he has - but not likely IMO. In fact I don't think he is even close yet. He could be contending for the Ross in another couple of years. He was 'snake bitten' in front of the net for about the first third of this season. He has since got his sh% up to 12.8 so maybe it has averaged out but it looked to me like he should have about 5 more goals this season - and he is still improving at a pretty sharp pace.

My expectations are pretty high but he hasn't disappointed me so far.

Ehlers Def hasn't reached his potential. Hell next year we could see 3 Jets all over 80 points in Scheif, Ehlers and Laine.

 

[garret9]

old data... brb

 

[Atoyot]

To Wpg Jacob Slavin
To CAR Nik Ehlers, Nic Petan, 3rd round pick

Hate to lose Ehlers, but WPG has no problem scoring goals but needs help defending.
Both are expansion exempt so the effect there is Nill on either team. It does allow some flexibility for the Jets in terms of the ability to deal Myers and run

Morrisey-Trouba
Slavin-Buff
Enstrom-Postma/Poolman/Nogier/F.A. (whoevers ready)

Moving Myers also then allows the Jets to go 7-3-1 in expansion
Scheif, Wheeler, Little, Perrault, Lowry, Armia, ________ (Dano, Copp, take your pick)

Vegas ultimately takes whos left of Copp or Dano.

Only reason I do this deal is because we Have Kyle Connor who might also be able to fill the void of Ehlers and our D would be vastly improved.

Thoughts?

I like Slavin, but my goodness is he overrated.

 

[garret9]

I like Slavin, but my goodness is he overrated.

He is 53rd in WAR models.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Petan plus minor for Fleury. I move little wheeler Perreault and every other vet b4 I think about moving ehlers

 

[garret9]

Updated Jets impact on goal differential (divide by 5 and you'll get a rough estimate on wins)

 

[surixon]

Updated Jets impact on goal differential (divide by 5 and you'll get a rough estimate on wins)

Wow Buff behind JoMo in war that is pretty shocking.

I guess it's pretty impressive though that Morrissey has had the impact of a low end top pairing dmen as a rookie. I expect Buff to bounce back to having a top pair impact next season. Hopefully Toby can get back to 2nd pairing impact.

 

[garret9]

Wow Buff behind JoMo in war that is pretty shocking.

Buff's defense is definitively worse than normal.

Buff has more pros than Morrissey, but more cons too.

 

[garret9]

To put Byfuglien's negative EV Defensive GAR into perspective:

2011-12 +0.66
2012-13 -0.09
2013-14 -0.30
2014-15 +0.00
2015-16 -0.45
2016-17 -2.50

I think this will be an outlier season for him... Hopefully.

IF that's the case, the Jets could have three different 1st pairing defenders next season.
IF Morrissey keeps rocketing up and Byfuglien gets back to his norm self, they could even have three different #1 calibre defenders.

Honestly, the Jets could have a very strong defensive group IF all things align well.
* Trouba continues being elite and stays
* Morrissey continues upward trajectory
* Byfuglien bounces back defensively, even somewhat
* Enstrom bounces back offensively, even somewhat
* Myers bounces back health wise, even somewhat
* Postma extended or Poolman presents equal / somewhat-close in value

If that works out the Jets could have:
#1/2 Morrissey - #1 Trouba
#4 Enstrom - #1/2 Byfuglien
Something - #4/5 Myers/Postma

 

[surixon]

To put Byfuglien's negative EV Defensive GAR into perspective:

2011-12 +0.66
2012-13 -0.09
2013-14 -0.30
2014-15 +0.00
2015-16 -0.45
2016-17 -2.50

I think this will be an outlier season for him... Hopefully.

IF that's the case, the Jets could have three different 1st pairing defenders next season.
IF Morrissey keeps rocketing up and Byfuglien gets back to his norm self, they could even have three different #1 calibre defenders.

Yeah I fully expect Buff to bounce back. This helps reinforce my thoughts that we don't have to go crazy this summer with finding another dmen. A solid number 3-4 defensive minded player would likely go a long way. Maybe we have that in Toby if he rebounds a bit but it would be nice to have someone to compete for that slot against him.

 

[Whileee]

Wow Buff behind JoMo in war that is pretty shocking.

I guess it's pretty impressive though that Morrissey has had the impact of a low end top pairing dmen as a rookie. I expect Buff to bounce back to having a top pair impact next season. Hopefully Toby can get back to 2nd pairing impact.

Morrissey has been a great development for the Jets.

Also interesting is Lowry over Little (and Laine).

 

[garret9]

Morrissey has been a great development for the Jets.

Also interesting is Lowry over Little (and Laine).

Yup. Still being overvalued due to PP TOI usage, but that's coming down as his numbers start to come to earth. He's a decent 3C. His poor scoring makes him limited to very particular roles and wingers.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Morrissey has been a great development for the Jets.

Also interesting is Lowry over Little (and Laine).

I would like to understand how Lowry is responsible for more wins than a top 30 center or an 18 year old with 36 goals. There is no amount of CorsiRelTm that can turn a 47% Corsi player who scores at the same rates as Chris Thorburn into someone that is more valuable than Laine or Little. I'm sensing a glitch.

 

[Whileee]

Yup. Still being overvalued due to PP TOI usage, but that's coming down as his numbers start to come to earth. He's a decent 3C. His poor scoring makes him limited to very particular roles and wingers.

What are your thoughts about the OBPM model giving weight to playing with better linemates? Seems to reward players for playing with better linemates, while penalizing players who are stuck with lower quality linemates?

 

[garret9]

I would like to understand how Lowry is responsible for more wins than a top 30 center or an 18 year old with 36 goals. There is no amount of CorsiRelTm that can turn a 47% Corsi player who scores at the same rates as Chris Thorburn into someone that is more valuable than Laine or Little. I'm sensing a glitch.

Lowry is worse in EV strength than Laine.

And while Lowry's poor EV scoring is quite bad (even replacement level) it's still better than Thorburn's hahah.

 

[Whileee]

Yup. Still being overvalued due to PP TOI usage, but that's coming down as his numbers start to come to earth. He's a decent 3C. His poor scoring makes him limited to very particular roles and wingers.

Little doesn't get PP TOI usage, or you think Lowry doesn't deserve PP TOI? I can understand that perspective from an eye test or aesthetic perspective, but Lowry's produced pretty well on the PP hasn't he?

 

[garret9]

Little doesn't get PP TOI usage, or you think Lowry doesn't deserve PP TOI? I can understand that perspective from an eye test or aesthetic perspective, but Lowry's produced pretty well on the PP hasn't he?

I'm suggest Lowry's PP GAR production is unsustainable.

PP GAR is heavily descriptive than predictive, unlike EV O and EV D that's a lot more sustainable.

 

[Whileee]

Lowry is worse in EV strength than Laine.

And while Lowry's poor EV scoring is quite bad (even replacement level) it's still better than Thorburn's hahah.

Surprising thing for me is that OBPM model gives more weight to assists than goals at EV, gives almost no weight to PP goals and a lot of weight to PP secondary assists. #machinelearning

(I actually understand how a model could come up with that result, but also understand if its face validity is questioned).

 

[Whileee]

I'm suggest Lowry's PP GAR production is unsustainable.

PP GAR is heavily descriptive than predictive, unlike EV O and EV D that's a lot more sustainable.

Understood, but what's the evidence that Lowry's PP production is unsustainable?

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Lowry is worse in EV strength than Laine.

And while Lowry's poor EV scoring is quite bad (even replacement level) it's still better than Thorburn's hahah.

Lowry's ES production is the same as Thorburns from 2011-2015.

I'm not suggesting we throw out the WAR baby with the bath water, but when 36 goals are worth less than a known plug who is fluking out some PP points, something is wrong. Little being our worst defensive forward is also way off.

The rest of the Jets lineup makes intuitive sense, to me at least.

 

[ecolad]

Yup. Still being overvalued due to PP TOI usage, but that's coming down as his numbers start to come to earth. He's a decent 3C. His poor scoring makes him limited to very particular roles and wingers.

Actually, Little`s ranking on the model seems to be shockingly low in and of itself, especially the EV Defense component. Am I perhaps reading this wrong and drawing a faulty conclusion? It doesn`t seem to jive with someone we frequently consider a ist line center....

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Understood, but what's the evidence that Lowry's PP production is unsustainable?

The evidence that his PP production is unsustainable is that usually the 300th best scoring forward in the NHL doesn't find himself on the PP at all. In a perfect Maurice-less world, Lowry doesn't get a sniff of the PP and ergo his PP p/60 goes to 0.00.

 

[Whileee]

Lowry's ES production is the same as Thorburns from 2011-2015.

I'm not suggesting we throw out the WAR baby with the bath water, but when 36 goals are worth less than a known plug who is fluking out some PP points, something is wrong. Little being our worst defensive forward is also way off.

The rest of the Jets lineup makes intuitive sense, to me at least.

I actually don't think Little has been that good defensively this season. Certainly not up to usual standards. I think it might be lingering effects of injury and conditioning, etc. The silver lining is that his less stellar play this season might make his next contract more palatable to the Jets. If he had another banner season, his asking price would be understandably sky high. Recency bias might moderate demands, if it doesn't encourage him to resist signing and plan on a good "show me" season.

 

[Whileee]

The evidence that his PP production is unsustainable is that usually the 300th best scoring forward in the NHL doesn't find himself on the PP at all. In a perfect Maurice-less world, Lowry doesn't get a sniff of the PP and ergo his PP p/60 goes to 0.00.

That's not really evidence.

 

[garret9]

Surprising thing for me is that OBPM model gives more weight to assists than goals at EV, gives almost no weight to PP goals and a lot of weight to PP secondary assists. #machinelearning

(I actually understand how a model could come up with that result, but also understand if its face validity is questioned).

Face value it makes sense. PP is smaller sample, so it removes some value from scoring PP goals and gives it to more underlying regions with expected individual goals.

The issue though I have with that is that to save on computational work, BPM is using Corsica's xGoals and not the DTM version, which works in poor finishers' favour.

Understood, but what's the evidence that Lowry's PP production is unsustainable?

Last time I checked he had the highest 5v4 ixGoals/60 (Corsica version) in NHL. While a lot of that is product of his usage (sit in front of the net and collect rebounds) I still don't think he'll continue at that rate, especially because receiving rebound shots tends to not be very repeatable.

Lowry's ES production is the same as Thorburns from 2011-2015.

I'm not suggesting we throw out the WAR baby with the bath water, but when 36 goals are worth less than a known plug who is fluking out some PP points, something is wrong. Little being our worst defensive forward is also way off.

The rest of the Jets lineup makes intuitive sense, to me at least.

Ah, I was just talking about this year for scoring for the two.

Not worst defensive forward, worst impact. It's not a rate statistic. Matthias is worse. It is something that has puzzled me too.

Historically Little's defensive WAR numbers are:
2011-12 +1.20
2012-13 +0.28
2013-14 +0.56
2014-15 +0.85
2015-16 -0.27
2016-17 -1.30

Historically speaking, Little does not normally garner a defensive WAR value like this, and EV Defense uses past seasons as a prior so something is going on to pull Little down. The only other player to get pulled down a lot this season on the Jets was Byfuglien.

Actually, Little`s ranking on the model seems to be shockingly low in and of itself, especially the EV Defense component. Am I perhaps reading this wrong and drawing a faulty conclusion? It doesn`t seem to jive with someone we frequently consider a ist line center....

See above.