Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 16-17 Part XVII

[Blue Shakehead]

I actually don't think Little has been that good defensively this season. Certainly not up to usual standards. I think it might be lingering effects of injury and conditioning, etc. The silver lining is that his less stellar play this season might make his next contract more palatable to the Jets. If he had another banner season, his asking price would be understandably sky high. Recency bias might moderate demands, if it doesn't encourage him to resist signing and plan on a good "show me" season.

I'd agree with that. But even Little at 70% health is still our 3rd best defensive forward, IMO. There is no way he is the worst defensive forward. Zero, zilch, no way.

I don't think the WAR model is correctly adjusting for usage/teammates. Little still gets all the tough match ups and thats no easy assignment when you swap out Ladd/Wheeler/Frolik with Ehlers/Laine/Perreault.

Perhaps more weight needs to be given to usage/linemates and some weight needs to be given to historic production/possession?

 

[Whileee]

Face value it makes sense. PP is smaller sample, so it removes some value from scoring PP goals and gives it to more underlying regions with expected individual goals.

The issue though I have with that is that to save on computational work, BPM is using Corsica's xGoals and not the DTM version, which works in poor finishers' favour.



Last time I checked he had the highest 5v4 ixGoals/60 (Corsica version) in NHL. While a lot of that is product of his usage (sit in front of the net and collect rebounds) I still don't think he'll continue at that rate, especially because receiving rebound shots tends to not be very repeatable.



Ah, I was just talking about this year for scoring for the two.

Not worst defensive forward, worst impact. It's not a rate statistic. Matthias is worse. It is something that has puzzled me too.

Historically Little's defensive WAR numbers are:
2011-12 +1.20
2012-13 +0.28
2013-14 +0.56
2014-15 +0.85
2015-16 -0.27
2016-17 -1.30

Historically speaking, Little does not normally garner a defensive WAR value like this, and EV Defense uses past seasons as a prior so something is going on to pull Little down. The only other player to get pulled down a lot this season on the Jets was Byfuglien.

See above.

Why is scoring from tips and shots and rebounds from the front of the net not repeatable? You might be right, but is there evidence?

 

[Blue Shakehead]

That's not really evidence.

It was a joke. The correct answer is the variation in sh% and oish%, particularly across tiny samples.

 

[Whileee]

It was a joke. The correct answer is the variation in sh% and oish%, particularly across tiny samples.

5v4 oish% is actually on the low side, and sh% is lower than Dano and about half of Little's. Sh% will be higher if your average shot distance is about 3 feet.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Ah, I was just talking about this year for scoring for the two.

Not worst defensive forward, worst impact. It's not a rate statistic. Matthias is worse. It is something that has puzzled me too.

Historically Little's defensive WAR numbers are:
2011-12 +1.20
2012-13 +0.28
2013-14 +0.56
2014-15 +0.85
2015-16 -0.27
2016-17 -1.30

Historically speaking, Little does not normally garner a defensive WAR value like this, and EV Defense uses past seasons as a prior so something is going on to pull Little down. The only other player to get pulled down a lot this season on the Jets was Byfuglien.

Thanks for clearing that up. I don't fully understand what is driving the EV defense statistic so I don't want to say it's entirely wrong. In fact, it looks a lot more defensible with the historical numbers as a comparison, in that there has been some noticeable drop off from 2015 to today. I still have him as our 1st - 4th best defensive forward, depending on his health/linemates. But I don't know how to account for it in WAR. Luckily for me, my job is to ***** and moan, rather than find solutions, so get cracking!

 

[garret9]

Why is scoring from tips and shots and rebounds from the front of the net not repeatable? You might be right, but is there evidence?

Yes. One of the VanHAC presenters showed how DTM's xGoal model could be further improved upon because rebounds were highly variant season to season. He called it Flurry Adjusted.

You score more if you tip or rebound is not unrepeatable.
Just being someone who gets more rebounds than anyone else in the NHL is the issue.

 

[Huffer]

Petan plus minor for Fleury. I move little wheeler Perreault and every other vet b4 I think about moving ehlers

Definitely something I would be looking at before moving Ehlers as well.

 

[surixon]

Yes. One of the VanHAC presenters showed how DTM's xGoal model could be further improved upon because rebounds were highly variant season to season. He called it Flurry Adjusted.

You score more if you tip or rebound is not unrepeatable.
Just being someone who gets more rebounds than anyone else in the NHL is the issue.

Hey Garret where can you go to get the WAR scores? Or is this information not available to the public?

Thanks.

 

[garret9]

Hey Garret where can you go to get the WAR scores? Or is this information not available to the public?

Thanks.

Outputs are public:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oOfO52xmhlVDReqJAGPGq5AjuW6UC-QLty6tveyP9yM/edit?usp=sharing

 

[surixon]

Outputs are public:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oOfO52xmhlVDReqJAGPGq5AjuW6UC-QLty6tveyP9yM/edit?usp=sharing

Sweet thanks.

 

[Daximus]

Well boys and gals we did it. The Jets are now officially the top team on no trade lists according to a new ESPN poll.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Well boys and gals we did it. The Jets are now officially the top team on no trade lists according to a new ESPN poll.

At this point it's pretty irrelevant. Pretty much any player the Jets should be interested in trading for at this point in time would not be old enough to have a NTC in effect. It actually helps prevent a mistake although I doubt Chevy is interested in adding veterans on the downhill slope of the age curve.

 

[bennysflyers16]

What would the ask for Toby be from Flyers ?

We need a 3rd D man to protect in the ED and some trade will happen, and his 1 yr deal fits the time frame for Flyers. The cap hit is not appealing, but if Jets can dump him it helps their position in ED. Does Haag for Toby straight up work ? He is the LHD young D man that could step right into Jets bottom pair as he is ready and ED exempt ?

Flyers
Provy Gudas
Morin Ghost
Enstrom Sanheim
A Mac

Jets
J Mo Trouba
UFA Buff
Haag Myers
Stuart

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Probably take more than Haag. .. not much more but a 2nd maybe

 

[bennysflyers16]

Probably take more than Haag. .. not much more but a 2nd maybe

Zero chance Hexy would trade a 2nd for a 1 year stop gap. We have a ton of picks though like always, so maybe something less could be added.

That being said, Flyers appear to be hitting some home runs with their late picks too ( Linblom Voryobyov, Lacyinski ) so who knows if he would trade any picks at all.

 

[Huffer]

What's Haag's injury status?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Assuming Vegas or the Jets don't win the lottery.

Stanley + our 1st for Vegas 1st?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well boys and gals we did it. The Jets are now officially the top team on no trade lists according to a new ESPN poll.

Its not like this is new. We've topped their list before.

Edmonton was right with us but they got lower on that list. I wonder how? Doubt we are there in another year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What would the ask for Toby be from Flyers ?

We need a 3rd D man to protect in the ED and some trade will happen, and his 1 yr deal fits the time frame for Flyers. The cap hit is not appealing, but if Jets can dump him it helps their position in ED. Does Haag for Toby straight up work ? He is the LHD young D man that could step right into Jets bottom pair as he is ready and ED exempt ?

Flyers
Provy Gudas
Morin Ghost
Enstrom Sanheim
A Mac

Jets
J Mo Trouba
UFA Buff
Haag Myers
Stuart

Not much interest in Hagg, TBH. More than none, but not much.

Why would Philly want yet another lefty? You are proposing Gudas and 5 lefties? Your empty protection should allow you to go after a younger than Toby RHD who might even be a legit 2nd pair.

Toby is still a 2nd pair D on most teams. Not sure for how long but certainly until his current contract runs out.

He has an NMC. Don't see him waiving it to go to Philly but I guess stranger things have happened.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Not much interest in Hagg, TBH. More than none, but not much.

Why would Philly want yet another lefty? You are proposing Gudas and 5 lefties? Your empty protection should allow you to go after a younger than Toby RHD who might even be a legit 2nd pair.

Toby is still a 2nd pair D on most teams. Not sure for how long but certainly until his current contract runs out.

He has an NMC. Don't see him waiving it to go to Philly but I guess stranger things have happened.

For sure with the righties, but Myers some say can make the jump right to the NHL this year, (next for Sure) , plus Sanheim has played right side all year, Ghost can play both, FLyers are in a great position. Long term someone like Dumba makes sense, but Toby with his lowering production, NMC, high salary, and eating a ED spot, I think the possibility of someone getting him real cheap is possible. And Flyers have too many long term solutions, so Toby fits that short vet spot.

But prob won't be a fit if Jets want a bigger return and just go the 4-4-1 way for ED.

 

[HannuJ]

i'd be willing to bet that GhostBear will be traded. seems to fallen out of favour with this staff.
give a sweet enough ask (pre-expansion draft) and i think you can get him.

 

[JetsFan815]

I would move on from Hakstol first before trading Ghost. Philly would be stupid to move him.

 

[bennysflyers16]

i'd be willing to bet that GhostBear will be traded. seems to fallen out of favour with this staff.
give a sweet enough ask (pre-expansion draft) and i think you can get him.

Highly doubt it,,, The stomach surgery was the main issue as last month and a half he has been back to his old self.

That being said, our coach makes P mo's decisions look elite (VDV 80 games played ) and Ghost will most likely be the 4th ranked D man behind Provy, Sanheim and Myers so who knows ?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

For sure with the righties, but Myers some say can make the jump right to the NHL this year, (next for Sure) , plus Sanheim has played right side all year, Ghost can play both, FLyers are in a great position. Long term someone like Dumba makes sense, but Toby with his lowering production, NMC, high salary, and eating a ED spot, I think the possibility of someone getting him real cheap is possible. And Flyers have too many long term solutions, so Toby fits that short vet spot.

But prob won't be a fit if Jets want a bigger return and just go the 4-4-1 way for ED.

You said Myers but I assume you meant Hagg. Being able to play in the NHL badly is no help to us. AFAIK he simply hasn't shown that much in the AHL to date. We don't need a #7 D. We need a #5, or better yet a #3-4.

If not for his health question mark Myers would be ideal for you but the price would certainly be higher than Hagg. As it is I can understand a lack of interest on your part.

If everything else worked there would still be that NMC. Maybe he would waive to be on the East coast and closer to home but I wouldn't count on that.

 

[bennysflyers16]

I would move on from Hakstol first before trading Ghost. Philly would be stupid to move him.

As would most of us,,, had such high hopes for him but man he loves his vet scrub players. The hope is now that Hexy has almost all of Holmers mess cleaned up ( Except AMac), he has to make sure he limits these type of players on his roster.