Series Talk: ECQ: Boston Bruins (3-3) Toronto Maple Leafs. GAME 7 AWAITS!

[CanadasTeam]

Any chance the waffle returns tomorrow if Leafs play tank mode and lose 100-0.

Only if you show up

 

[The List Of Jericho]

Will be back in Boston come Wednesday

 

[mix1home]

Will be back in Boston come Wednesday

They should not look past Monday. Play your game and concentrate on winning one game only. Skate bruins into the ice. Get them moving, chasing, holding. Skate Leafs Skate!

 

[wingman75]

If we can clean up the few mistakes from Game 4 I think we'll be alright. I know the D are getting a lot of grief for their pinches, but there is supposed to be an F3 (high forward supporting any pinches) out there somewhere. Alternatively, if that F3 is not high the D needs to read that and back off immediately. I seriously don't get how we continue to make the same bonehead plays over and over... me thinks the hockey IQ of some of our boys is not as high as we'd like to think it is.

I think we can win the next 2, I really do, but it will take smart hockey from the goalie on out. We've shown it in spurts, need it for a full 120 to finish this bitch off.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

They should not look past Monday. Play your game and concentrate on winning one game only. Skate bruins into the ice. Get them moving, chasing, holding. Skate Leafs Skate!

I’m not...I just believe they’ll be there.

 

[Halla]

The difference in atmosphere between the ACC & Boston was night and day. Just embarrassing. Leafs front office has to find a way to get rid of the suits.

leafs have a pretty good atmosphere in the playoffs. maybe check a game out sometime?

 

[LeafShark]

Boo Marchand everytime he touches the puck / makes a hit.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Boo Marchand everytime he touches the puck / makes a hit.

Booing him ,or anybody really, is like asking him to burn you.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Any chance the waffle returns tomorrow if Leafs play tank mode and lose 100-0.

I'd support that.

 

[DarkKnight]

Boo Marchand everytime he touches the puck / makes a hit.

He lives for that.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

Hopefully, Leafs don't fall in the same way the Avs and Philly did by forcing a game 6 just to lose at home.

 

[Zybalto]

Part of it is puck luck. Nothing he is involved in ends up in the net, even the great chances. When his defensive play started a rush goal, he got the third assist. He missed his great chance, he set up Johnsson for a high percentage slot shot, he was involved in a few more scoring chances in the game. He could easily have walked out of last game with two points. It's the same way with Matthews.

As long as they are involved in creating scoring chances, it'll eventually start going in.

Edit: I should say that with puck luck, I'm talking about just the overall ebb and flow of conversion rates, not actual luck per se.

Its hard to measure puck luck perfectly but the PDO stat for many players in this series is certainly a good indicator that you are on the right track with your analysis.

Nylander has good advanced stats this series (53% Corsi, 55% SCF, 53% HDCF) but his PDO this series is only .915. That number is completely unsustainable and shows that he has played far better that the surface numbers suggest. More than a few of us have been mystified at the amount of bad bounces the Leafs have gotten this series and combined with shoddy goalkeeping/unsustainable shooting percentage/unbalanced officiating has made for a narrative that is most cases does not exist.

Other players obviously suffering from good numbers and horrible puck luck have been:

Dermott (57% Corsi, 55% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .912)
Kapanen (54% Corsi, 57% SCF, 53% HDCF, PDO .885)
Zaitsev (55% Corsi, 61% SCF, 65% HDCF, PDO .918)
Gardiner (56% Corsi, 62% SCF, 59% HDCF, PDO .938)
Matthews (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .892)

Those who have benefited from timely saves/goals/luck but have bad numbers are:

Plekanec (41% Corsi, 33% SCF, 37% HDCF, PDO 1.073)
Rielly (40% Corsi, 39% SCF, 35% HDCF, PDO 1.056)
Hainsey (42% Corsi, 41% SCF, 37% HDCF, PDO 1.053)

All these numbers tend to level out over time but right now they are so outta wack they often present an illusion to what is happening out there on the ice IMO. There is an element of Rask playing well, the Bruins playing good defense and inexperience at play here as well but Its not like Rask has been standing on his head every game against some of our snipers as pucks have been just missing the open side, hitting posts, randomly hitting him through screens, etc.

In defense of the 2nd group listed, much of their bad play took place in the first game of the series and they have been slowly crawling back from that debacle of a game. They still havnt been good or anything but their numbers look a helluva lot better without that one. Another point of optimism is that this all points to a breakout for our top snipers as long as they continue their play.

Whats the difference between Matthews and Nylanders regular season advanced stats and his playoff advanced stats?

Matthews:
Season: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 54% HDCF, PDO 1.069)
Playoffs: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .892)

Nylander:
Season: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 51% HDCF, PDO 1.057)
Playoffs: (53% Corsi, 55% SCF, 53% HDCF, PDO .915)

I can see one glaring difference but what is the reason?

 

[glue]

Hopefully, Leafs don't fall in the same way the Avs and Philly did by forcing a game 6 just to lose at home.

They won’t, it’s going 7..

 

[DarkKnight]

Its hard to measure puck luck perfectly but the PDO stat for many players in this series is certainly a good indicator that you are on the right track with your analysis.

Nylander has good advanced stats this series (53% Corsi, 55% SCF, 53% HDCF) but his PDO this series is only .915. That number is completely unsustainable and shows that he has played far better that the surface numbers suggest. More than a few of us have been mystified at the amount of bad bounces the Leafs have gotten this series and combined with shoddy goalkeeping/unsustainable shooting percentage/unbalanced officiating has made for a narrative that is most cases does not exist.

Other players obviously suffering from good numbers and horrible puck luck have been:

Dermott (57% Corsi, 55% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .912)
Kapanen (54% Corsi, 57% SCF, 53% HDCF, PDO .885)
Zaitsev (55% Corsi, 61% SCF, 65% HDCF, PDO .918)
Gardiner (56% Corsi, 62% SCF, 59% HDCF, PDO .938)
Matthews (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .892)

Those who have benefited from timely saves/goals/luck but have bad numbers are:

Plekanec (41% Corsi, 33% SCF, 37% HDCF, PDO 1.073)
Rielly (40% Corsi, 39% SCF, 35% HDCF, PDO 1.056)
Hainsey (42% Corsi, 41% SCF, 37% HDCF, PDO 1.053)

All these numbers tend to level out over time but right now they are so outta wack they often present an illusion to what is happening out there on the ice IMO. There is an element of Rask playing well, the Bruins playing good defense and inexperience at play here as well but Its not like Rask has been standing on his head every game against some of our snipers as pucks have been just missing the open side, hitting posts, randomly hitting him through screens, etc.

In defense of the 2nd group listed, much of their bad play took place in the first game of the series and they have been slowly crawling back from that debacle of a game. They still havnt been good or anything but their numbers look a helluva lot better without that one. Another point of optimism is that this all points to a breakout for our top snipers as long as they continue their play.

Whats the difference between Matthews and Nylanders regular season advanced stats and his playoff advanced stats?

Matthews:
Season: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 54% HDCF, PDO 1.069)
Playoffs: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .892)

Nylander:
Season: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 51% HDCF, PDO 1.057)
Playoffs: (53% Corsi, 55% SCF, 53% HDCF, PDO .915)

I can see one glaring difference but what is the reason?

Nylander hasn’t had a good series, if the stats suggest otherwise, then I question the stats. I mean I’m not into the hate fest around here of late but it’s obvious those stats don’t compute with reality, at least for me and I’m quite comfortable ignoring those numbers as indicative or absolving in any way. Nylander hasn’t had a strong showing. I also didn’t look at any of those stats last year in the playoffs when Nylander was fantastic, so...

 

[ITM]

Nylander hasn’t had a good series, if the stats suggest otherwise, then I question the stats. I mean I’m not into the hate fest around here of late but it’s obvious those stats don’t compute with reality, at least for me and I’m quite comfortable ignoring those numbers as indicative or absolving in any way. Nylander hasn’t had a strong showing. I also didn’t look at any of those stats last year in the playoffs when Nylander was fantastic, so...

Good man.

Takes one game and all is forgiven. That said...Don't mind one bit Mitch Marner taking Game #6 on his back and creating a little magic.

 

[Eb]

I don't get it

 

[Havoc]

I don't get it

It's counting 16 wins (cup)

 

[razkaz]

Leafs need to come out of the gates running tonight. You know the Bruins are going to come back looking to end this quick. Rask will be motivated to play his best game yet, Bergeron hasn't been putting up big numbers, yet, and how long do you think Pasta is going to be snake bitten? This is going to be the first time the Leafs play intact at home so we really need to see the same fast team come to play and choke out any hope of the Bruins sending the boys packing at home. The intensity needs to be there from puck drop to final buzzer, I want to run them out of the building because Game 7 anything could happen.

Bergeron might still be hurt so that should be green light for Kadri and Plek to finish their hits (legally of course, none of that Game 1 nonsense). Maybe the old dogs from Boston are tired and are only getting one night between games so keep the speed up!

1 win at a time. Let's go back to Boston Thursday night and play our best hockey yet.

 

[taurine330]

Its hard to measure puck luck perfectly but the PDO stat for many players in this series is certainly a good indicator that you are on the right track with your analysis.

Nylander has good advanced stats this series (53% Corsi, 55% SCF, 53% HDCF) but his PDO this series is only .915. That number is completely unsustainable and shows that he has played far better that the surface numbers suggest. More than a few of us have been mystified at the amount of bad bounces the Leafs have gotten this series and combined with shoddy goalkeeping/unsustainable shooting percentage/unbalanced officiating has made for a narrative that is most cases does not exist.

Other players obviously suffering from good numbers and horrible puck luck have been:

Dermott (57% Corsi, 55% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .912)
Kapanen (54% Corsi, 57% SCF, 53% HDCF, PDO .885)
Zaitsev (55% Corsi, 61% SCF, 65% HDCF, PDO .918)
Gardiner (56% Corsi, 62% SCF, 59% HDCF, PDO .938)
Matthews (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .892)

Those who have benefited from timely saves/goals/luck but have bad numbers are:

Plekanec (41% Corsi, 33% SCF, 37% HDCF, PDO 1.073)
Rielly (40% Corsi, 39% SCF, 35% HDCF, PDO 1.056)
Hainsey (42% Corsi, 41% SCF, 37% HDCF, PDO 1.053)

All these numbers tend to level out over time but right now they are so outta wack they often present an illusion to what is happening out there on the ice IMO. There is an element of Rask playing well, the Bruins playing good defense and inexperience at play here as well but Its not like Rask has been standing on his head every game against some of our snipers as pucks have been just missing the open side, hitting posts, randomly hitting him through screens, etc.

In defense of the 2nd group listed, much of their bad play took place in the first game of the series and they have been slowly crawling back from that debacle of a game. They still havnt been good or anything but their numbers look a helluva lot better without that one. Another point of optimism is that this all points to a breakout for our top snipers as long as they continue their play.

Whats the difference between Matthews and Nylanders regular season advanced stats and his playoff advanced stats?

Matthews:
Season: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 54% HDCF, PDO 1.069)
Playoffs: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 50% HDCF, PDO .892)

Nylander:
Season: (50% Corsi, 53% SCF, 51% HDCF, PDO 1.057)
Playoffs: (53% Corsi, 55% SCF, 53% HDCF, PDO .915)

I can see one glaring difference but what is the reason?

What's PDO?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

What's PDO?

on ice save percentage + shooting percentage. it's a measure of luck

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Leafs lost to the caps in game 6 last year at home, can't shake that nagging feeling.

I hope the buds win though.

 

[razkaz]

Just saw this lol. I would have replaced Plek with Andersen to be honest but the resemblance is uncanny.

 

[taurine330]

on ice save percentage + shooting percentage. it's a measure of luck

So for a forward lower number is better ?

 

[Beaninfritz]

Nylander hasn’t had a good series, if the stats suggest otherwise, then I question the stats. I mean I’m not into the hate fest around here of late but it’s obvious those stats don’t compute with reality, at least for me and I’m quite comfortable ignoring those numbers as indicative or absolving in any way. Nylander hasn’t had a strong showing. I also didn’t look at any of those stats last year in the playoffs when Nylander was fantastic, so...

I agree, it hasn't been good for him so far. But it's mostly due to Boston targeting our top 3 forwards. Anytime you see Matthews with the puck, there are 2 Bruins on him. When Mitch has the puck, 2 Bruins are on him. I liked Babs slotting Nylander where he is. He has more freedom, because the Bruins can't always throw their top 4 D-men on our top 3 forwards. It's going to take a bit to develop some chemistry/plays, but look what Kadri did with Jonssson. That was a sweet goal. I was pretty vocal about how Boston was cycling like Arnold Schwarzenegger in his prime, and suggested that the Leafs should put MNM together on a line. Now I see what Babs is doing, and I like it. He's mixing it up, and it's giving the Bruins fits. Because who do they try to shut down?
Hyman-Matthews-Brown?
Marleau-Plekanec-Marner?

Those are the only two lines I can think off the top of my head. But maybe this balanced scoring thing isn't so freaking bad. If you can have close to equal offensive threats (and good ones at that) on each line, then who do you target if you're the opposing coach?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

So for a forward lower number is better ?

well it's not about better, but a number closer to 100 is more sustainable. anything below 100 is unlucky and anything above 100 is lucky