Recalled/Assigned: Dermott to the Leafs Marincin back to the Marlies

[Kiwi]

Polak had a higher possession rate than Gardiner at 5-vs-5 in last nights game and Polak only had a 27% offensive zone start and Gardiner had 68% an offensive zone start!

It's one bloody game

Gardiner has been **** This season but he's not even close to Polak awful

Yes time changes. So what return is worse than nothing? A 5th? If we get anything that's a win.
I still don't think we trade him but either way he won't hit waivers because he would get picked up.

Nobody is picking him up, the only reason he's playing now is because Babcock has a burning love for him that's goes beyond rational thought

Franson didn't get picked up and he's miles better than Polak, surprisingly enough most teams don't want absolute ****

thank you for posting this! people want to blame Polak for being **** on the PK but we've only given up 4 goals with him on the PK.

PK with Polak on it 83.3%
Leafs killing a Polak penalty 84.6%

Yeah he's a stud alright, he's ****** awful and it's provable and still this rubbish narrative continues

 

[Mr Hockey]

It's one bloody game

Gardiner has been **** This season but he's not even close to Polak awful



Nobody is picking him up, the only reason he's playing now is because Babcock has a burning love for him that's goes beyond rational thought

Franson didn't get picked up and he's miles better than Polak, surprisingly enough most teams don't want absolute ****



PK with Polak on it 83.3%
Leafs killing a Polak penalty 84.6%

Yeah he's a stud alright, he's ****** awful and it's provable and still this rubbish narrative continues

Whats the point of these 2 stats you guys keep posting in all these threads? lol

PK with Polak on it 83.3%
Leafs killing a Polak penalty 84.6%

 

[francis246]

It's one bloody game

Gardiner has been **** This season but he's not even close to Polak awful



Nobody is picking him up, the only reason he's playing now is because Babcock has a burning love for him that's goes beyond rational thought

Franson didn't get picked up and he's miles better than Polak, surprisingly enough most teams don't want absolute ****



PK with Polak on it 83.3%
Leafs killing a Polak penalty 84.6%

Yeah he's a stud alright, he's ****** awful and it's provable and still this rubbish narrative continues

that is literally a 1 percent change. Do you know anything about statistics? That amounts to about nothing.

 

[stickty111]

Gardiner is still better then Polak even when Jake is at his worst.

 

[LilySmoov]

that is literally a 1 percent change. Do you know anything about statistics? That amounts to about nothing.

Pretty sure that's the point - that Polak doesn't actually help our PK.

 

[Rogie]

I can't figure out people's reason for making the claim that we have a better PK without Polak than with him. Does it NOT miss the point that he's 2nd or 3rd up for Dmen - ahead of Rielly by almost a full minute/60 - in terms of PK TOI/60, and we are tied for 2nd or 3rd best overall PK in the league.

He is one of the players on the PK team!

If our PK is better with Hainsey and Ziet than with the next pairing, it doesn't mean our PK teams are better off without Polak all together. At least, I'm not seeing that. Doesn't it just mean that he isn't our BEST PKer?

Wouldn't it be like saying, since JVR's PP unit is better than Matthews PP unit, that Matthews unit somehow sucks!

 

[Mr Hockey]

Pretty sure that's the point - that Polak doesn't actually help our PK.

I think Polak was brought in to "help take some heavy minutes away" from Hansey/Zaitsev on the PK, defensive situations. He seems to be doing an ok job!

 

[Kiwi]

Whats the point of these 2 stats you guys keep posting in all these threads? lol

PK with Polak on it 83.3%
Leafs killing a Polak penalty 84.6%

It proves the whole he needs to be on the team for his PK ability is complete ****

that is literally a 1 percent change. Do you know anything about statistics? That amounts to about nothing.

For a PK specialist with zero redeeming qualities 5v5 it's a joke he's not actually making the PK better

So he's not a difference maker on the PK
He's atrocious 5v5
Takes a crap ton of penalties
He can't move the puck and his mobility is ****
The team loses at a ridiculously higher rate when he's dressed

Explain to me again why he's on the team? Without the usual grit and intangibles bull****

 

[Rogie]

I'm interested in finding (from any stat sites - I usually use naturalstattrick the most) where you find the Players individual PK% and/or PP%.
This number, that the Leafs are 83.3% with Polak on the PK, but 84.6% without Polak on the PK - well, is that anecdotal or a real stat; if real, can anyone direct me to the site where I can find similar numbers - thanks so very much.

 

[Mr Hockey]

It proves the whole he needs to be on the team for his PK ability is complete ****

IMO... A big reason he is on the team is to help relieve the pressure of the heavy PK minutes Hansey/Zaitsev have been playing. Why is this hard to understand?

 

[Kiwi]

IMO... A big reason he is on the team is to help relieve the pressure of the heavy PK minutes Hansey/Zaitsev have been playing. Why is this hard to understand?

Because he's awful in every other area and makes the team worse when he plays, how hard is that to understand?

The worst thing is this isn't Polak's fault, Babcock is the one shoehorning him onto the team

 

[Rogie]

So, I can't find the actual numbers anywhere for Individ PK% to compare it to the team numbers. So, I will just do more basic calcs fromt eh numbers that I can find, that I know (think) have to be relevant.

So, the total number of PK minutes played divided by the number of goals scored by the other team. There is a modification. Some players, while short handed, the team scored, so, there is a plus minus number that I will use for calculating.
Player PKTOI total ...................... goals against+/- ........ GA/min

Rielly 59 mins .............. 7 ......................... 1/8.4 mins
Ziets 115 mins ............... 10 ....................... 1/11.5 mins
Hainsey 188 mins. ............. 14 ..................... 1/13 mins
Polak 55 mins. .................. 2 .............................. 1/27.5 mins


Results shows when Polak is on the ice,
the team is scored on just 1 every 27 minutes when shorthanded, compared to the other players - YOU CAN SEE.

So, I'm not sure how those earlier number of 84.x% with and without Polak could have been anything more than very anecdotal.

Please, someone point out what I am missing. This seems like very basic math, but, hey, I'm pretty old and stuff, so.
Again, this is based on 4v5 time on ice for each player and the number of goals score against the team (minus goals we scored while we were shorthanded), and then dividing the time on ice by the number of goals scored.
Polak was on for 4 shorthanded goals during 55 minutes of shorthanded ice time. But (probably Hyman) we scored 2 goals during that time, so, effectively, he just gave up 2 goals shorthanded in his 55 minutes.

This is from Corsica website.
Edit: my MISTAKE, these numbers are ALL 4v5, which is NOT technically the Pk which includes 3v5, and 3v4, etc etc. But, it doesn't change the numbers drastically, and when the numbers are slightly different, they don't favor any player one way or the other.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Because he's awful in every other area and makes the team worse when he plays, how hard is that to understand?

The worst thing is this isn't Polak's fault, Babcock is the one shoehorning him onto the team

haha, your so over the top!

 

[Rogie]

According to my post above, unless someone can find something wrong with the math, ACCORDING TO THE REAL NUMBERS,

When Hainsey was on the ice, the Leafs gave up
ONE GOAL EVERY 13 MINUTES SHORTHANDED

but,
When Polak was on the ice, the Leafs gave up
ONE GOAL EVERY 27 MINUTES SHORTHANDED

Yup, that does NOT look like Polak makes the PK team worse, it makes it look like he make the PK much much better.

There HAS to be something drastically wrong with these numbers because some posters are sure that Polak makes our PK worse!!!

Please, tell me what I have calculated wrong. I am dying to find out.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I'm interested in finding (from any stat sites - I usually use naturalstattrick the most) where you find the Players individual PK% and/or PP%.
This number, that the Leafs are 83.3% with Polak on the PK, but 84.6% without Polak on the PK - well, is that anecdotal or a real stat; if real, can anyone direct me to the site where I can find similar numbers - thanks so very much.

I think those numbers may have come from a private database, I also have not looked around to double check them with the context to make sure these guys aren't trying to pull a fast one with a narrative. I think they are lol

 

[Rogie]

I think those numbers may have came from some private database, I also have not looked around to double check them with context and make sure these guys arnt trying to pull a fast one with a narrative. I think they are lol

My guess is the numbers are real but they were for a one game sample with no value. A lot of posters listen to the broadcast and hear a number that confirms their bias and then use the number (unintentionally) in the wrong way.

My guess (based on the stats I showed), is that our 84%PK (which is obviously the average of ALL players on the PK consists of individual PK averages, some of which are higher and some of which must be lower:
Hainsey - a tad above the 84% (maybe 86 or so)
Zietsiev - below the 84% (between 75 and 80)
Rielly - below the 84 - (somewhere between 70 and 75%)
Polak - way above 84% - perhaps over 90%

Since Hainsey plays the most, his average will be close to the team average.

 

[Rielly4]

Polak was brought in so that Zaitsev and Hainsey dont get completely worn down. He is definitely our 3rd best PK d man. But the reality is he is absolutely horrible 5 on 5. He is ALWAYS in his own end due to the fact that he cant complete a tape to tape breakout pass. He has lost a step and isnt even good defensively anymore. He should not be in the NHL. We do need someone else to take some of the PK minutes though, whether that be Borgman or someone outside the organization. Maybe a Holl callup? Marlies have the top PK in the NHL so it shouldn't be hard finding a decent PK defender that can make a breakout pass.

Dermott is exactly what we need right now and should be getting lots of minutes with Gardiner while Zaitsev is still out. When Zaitsev gets back Dermott should still be on our 3rd pair. He is ahead of Borgman Carrick and especially Polak. He will help push puck possesion which is what we need.

Also give Kapanen a shot already Komarov is looking old and sluggish although that line is doing a nice job defensively.

 

[Rogie]

Polak was brought in so that Zaitsev and Hainsey dont get completely worn down. He is definitely our 3rd best PK d man. But the reality is he is absolutely horrible 5 on 5. He is ALWAYS in his own end due to the fact that he cant complete a tape to tape breakout pass. He has lost a step and isnt even good defensively anymore. He should not be in the NHL. We do need someone else to take some of the PK minutes though, whether that be Borgman or someone outside the organization. Maybe a Holl callup? Marlies have the top PK in the NHL so it shouldn't be hard finding a decent PK defender that can make a breakout pass.

Dermott is exactly what we need right now and should be getting lots of minutes with Gardiner while Zaitsev is still out. When Zaitsev gets back Dermott should still be on our 3rd pair. He is ahead of Borgman Carrick and especially Polak. He will help push puck possesion which is what we need.

Also give Kapanen a shot already Komarov is looking old and sluggish although that line is doing a nice job defensively.

I don't disagree with anything here, just wondering what you think about the numbers that I showed, that show he gives up far far fewer goals against on the PK than both Hainsey and Zietsiev? In 55 minutes of shorthanded time, he's a minus 2, one goal per 27 minutes, while Hainsey and Zietsiev give up a goal every 11 or 13 minutes or something like that.

 

[Rielly4]

I don't disagree with anything here, just wondering what you think about the numbers that I showed, that show he gives up far far fewer goals against on the PK than both Hainsey and Zietsiev? In 55 minutes of shorthanded time, he's a minus 2, one goal per 27 minutes, while Hainsey and Zietsiev give up a goal every 11 or 13 minutes or something like that.

I would say its a combination of factors. One obvious one being Zaitsev and Hainsey start on the PK and face the oppositions top PP group. Also that early on they were literally playing for the full 2 minutes of PK which couldnt help those numbers. With that being said you cant argue with numbers, need a larger sample size though.

 

[Rogie]

I would say its a combination of factors. One obvious one being Zaitsev and Hainsey start on the PK and face the oppositions top PP group. Also that early on they were literally playing for the full 2 minutes of PK which couldnt help those numbers. With that being said you cant argue with numbers, need a larger sample size though.

Agreed, lots of factors: maybe Polak plays more with Kom/Hyman when he's PKing. Or, like you say, against weaker PP units, maybe more with Hainsey than Ziets etc etc

Also, looking at last years' similar stats Polak's numbers drop down a lot, but, maybe not surprisingly, he was ahead of Rielly and Zietsiev and only behind Hunwick (and Marincin- but Marincin's numbers are freakishly 'outlier' like).

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

He’s one of 4 healthy dmen we have that don’t need sheltering.

Carrick
Borgman
Dermott

I believe all have been sheltered with OZ starts, but not Polak.

It is for that reason the other 3 are being rotated but not Polak. He plays a very simple role.

If Dermott proves himself to handle tougher minutes, then he’ll either draw in to the right of Gards or take Borgmans spot, but probably Polak stays for that reason.

As far as who comes out, it will be a balance between risk associated to losing depth and having the best roster right now.

If Borgman is only marginally better than Carrick (likely case, they’re both sheltered), then it might still make sense to send Borgman down due to waiver eligibility.

If we waive Carrick and lose him, then a dman gets injured for 20 games, who are we bringing up? Ouch. That’s probably worse than the difference of having Carrick instead of Borgman for the second half.

 

[54thecup]

Dermott going down is a good move! He will play lots off minutes tonight and tomorrow and I'm sure there's been clear communication on what he should work on! It will be interesting to see whether he goes back to lots of pk mins or other type of mins.

Travis has made the AHL All-Star game 2.5 weeks from now. The Leafs have 6 games between now and then, 4 on the road. I suspect he will go to the All-Star game and depending the health of our D, may not play till after after that ( I hope I'm wrong!!).

In any case by Feb, with Zaitsev back we have the opp to see Borgy and Dermott as bottom 6 D. Help may be on the way!!

 

[francis246]

It proves the whole he needs to be on the team for his PK ability is complete ****




For a PK specialist with zero redeeming qualities 5v5 it's a joke he's not actually making the PK better

So he's not a difference maker on the PK
He's atrocious 5v5
Takes a crap ton of penalties
He can't move the puck and his mobility is ****
The team loses at a ridiculously higher rate when he's dressed

Explain to me again why he's on the team? Without the usual grit and intangibles bull****

you do know this is a team sport right? not individual

 

[saltming]

It's one bloody game

Gardiner has been **** This season but he's not even close to Polak awful



Nobody is picking him up, the only reason he's playing now is because Babcock has a burning love for him that's goes beyond rational thought

Franson didn't get picked up and he's miles better than Polak, surprisingly enough most teams don't want absolute ****



PK with Polak on it 83.3%
Leafs killing a Polak penalty 84.6%

Yeah he's a stud alright, he's ****** awful and it's provable and still this rubbish narrative continues

Sorry kiwi but 1st I don't think we will trade him. 2nd nothing you can say will convince me we would get nothing for him because as I've stated the masses once already were 100% sure he would get nothing in a trade and he brought in a ransom
Proof is in the pudding. So until get doesn't get picked up off waivers the precedence says he has value.

 

[francis246]

Because he's awful in every other area and makes the team worse when he plays, how hard is that to understand?

The worst thing is this isn't Polak's fault, Babcock is the one shoehorning him onto the team

Dermott isn't ready to take Polak's minutes or even Zaitsev's (cause that's who polak is replacing atm). How can you realistically expect a guy who is 2 games into his NHL career to play on the PK and on his off-side and not get eaten alive. It's gonna happen. They need to shelter him because if you increase his role and he does shit, that's the end of Dermott. Defensemen need to be brought into the league differently. They need a gradual increase of responsibility.

No one is arguing that Dermott isn't going to be good. But for roster management purposes he will continue to be in the rotation and there's nothing wrong with that. Polak has been steady but I hope they move on from him next year.

*EDIT: also where are these PK numbers with/without polak coming from? It seems like some asshole on twitter with no basis just put them out because I can't find them on any statistical website