Maybe so, but Andersen has to be the most inconsistent starting goalie in the entire NHL. He plays dream goaltending for 58 minutes every game and then has his moments where he plays with his head under the arm. I just dont get him. Again last night against St. Louis he plays really well and then lets in an extremely soft goal where the puck bounces of the wall behind the goal and hits Andersen. We see this game after game and it can not just be bad luck. It happens at least every other game that some weird **** goes on that costs a goal.
One way to look at it is the average amount of goals each game, that is acceptable for an NHL quality goalie to let in every game. Then you look on how many goals your forwards are expected to score in average. Then you tally expected points.....
So to make a quick evaluation on expected GPG for goalies (off course the number of shots they face each night is also very important; but if we are calculating for expected wins and loses for the team this is probably the way to go). You need around ~10 matches for proper form evaluation.
Elite performing goalies are < 1,5 GPG
Great performing goalies are 1,5-2,0 GPG
Good goalie performance between 2,0-2,5 GPG.
Average goalie performance between 2,5-3,0 GPG
Struggling goalie performance > 3 GPG
Frederik Andersen is so far 2,05 PPG.
Rinne has 1,74, Lundqvist 1,98, Quick 2,0 and Price 2,01.
So Andersen is not very far behind great goalies and in front of Miller with 2,16 & Schneider 2,22.
So then we take average number of goals scored by the team:
High scoring team:
Montreal has 45 goals in 12 matches = 3,75 GPG
- they would in theory win a lot more matches that they would lose even with an average goalie (2,5-3,0) in the net.
- yet they have Price with 2,01 in 8 matches and Condon 1,50 in 2 matches (not fully updated info)
Average scoring team:
Chicago has 24 goals in 11 matches = 2,18 GPG
- Crawford is 1,76 in 8 matches, Darling 2,51 in 2 matches (not fully updated info).
- here is swings more 50-50% with wins and losses.
Low scoring team:
Anaheim has 10 goals in 10 matches = 1 GPG
Conclusion almost no matter what goalie they had in the net (you need a goalie under 1 GPG) they would still lose almost all matches.
- Andersen's 2,05 is actually really good goalie standard (but not elite) and actually close to Carey Price.
If Andersen miss an easy goal every game, he then makes up with it by making difficult saves to keep it around ~2 GPG.
Some goalies are like that, other are rock solid but rarely make outrageous saves.
It might be important for fans, but for estimated point calculations it is pretty irrelevant how saves and goals are made.
Bright side:
"Easy goals" let in is something that can be corrected and improved upon (better positioning or training to avoid lapses in concentration).
Making spectacular saves are a bit harder to teach.
Another point: Unless it is a direct drop, what is an easy goal??
Goals can look "easy", but if its a shot the goaltender didn't see because of traffic, then it really doesn't qualify.
Neither will most deflections qualify as "easy" even if they bounce on the goalie funnily and ends up going into the net.