Crunching the Numbers: Why Re-Building is Harder than Ever

[Dotter]

Howard could get hot... but Wings look like a bottom 5 team this season. I think they draft around 6th.

 

[obey86]

People just like to complain to complain.

The Wings should trade away players at the trade deadline, it's what all non-playoff teams do! Then they do it.
The only way the Wings will ever turn things around is if they are competing for a top 5 pick! Looks like that's the case so far.

It's almost like they are following the plan. They're terrible. They will continue to be terrible until one or two of their top draft picks hit in short succession. The cycle of sports.

 

[obey86]

Howard could get hot... but Wings look like a bottom 5 team this season. I think they draft around 6th.

Any goalie in the league could get hot. If we're complaining that one of our players could get hot and then the Wings could go on winning streak and then could finish as a middling team....well.....that's a lot of "coulds" and it's just complaining to complain about stuff that hasn't even happened or is extremely unlikely to happen.

 

[jkutswings]

In addition to what you already said, many of those in that group also refuse to acknowledge what gives the players motivation to play if their own GM is plastering all over the media with; "I want the team to suck" and "I want to tank", "we want to lose", "we want to fail", "we will do whatever it takes to get the best possible draft selections", "we will cut anyone's throat for Dahlin". What does that accomplish other than appeasing a few random hockey fans complaining on a message forum?

It's a very thin line you have to walk when rebuilding. You can't go all caveman and relentless, it'll cause more harm than good. Ken Holland said in that interview posted on here they are, in fact, rebuilding without saying it in an idiotic manner. No good will come out of him saying "Today and until the unforeseeable future, we shall officially be a tanking and basement team until we draft our next group of franchise saviors"

If I'm Larkin and I read that in the headline one morning, I am telling Kenny to trade me ASAP to any team not begging to lose.... or pay me MILLIONS over my actual worth just so I can afford more alcohol to drown my sorrows away, and I'll come to work drunk, overweight and out of shape to help the 'cause'. Who wants to part of a business that their primary strategy is failing, whiling not giving two ****s about me as a player. Screw that! Have some class and self respect! Nobody wants to be part of that garbage.

Or Holland can can publicly declare that Detroit is once again all about chasing championships, and that they feel the best way to do that is to start with the elite talent most often found at the top of the draft. So they're going to give a lot more of their kids a long look to see what they have, while making moves to build a roster that will one day return to true contender status.

While Zetterberg and Larkin stand at each of his shoulders, publicly endorsing the clear direction and return to high standards. And echoing a need to look in the mirror and demand accountability from every player and staff member in the organization.

See? I can make up far-fetched scenarios, too!

 

[ArGarBarGar]

You could say that about any team. The Wings could also finish with the #1 pick if they go 2-20-3 over their next 25 games. Let's talk about reality though....they're in the convo for the worst team in the league that's not Arizona.

That's usually how things work. Teams don't want to be terrible.

Teams don't want to be terrible but teams certainly make moves that do not coincide with short term success to help for long term success. Holland spending to the cap and the team being terrible in spite of that is world's different than making moves that facilitate long term success.

By the way, the team going on a hot stretch for a small number of games is more likely than them winning 2 out of 25 games. The point is their current place in the standings is not going to determine their exact placement once the season ends, and the team and the GM (and many fans who defend him) use the team being higher in the standings as a general expectation during this rebuild.

 

[Dotter]

That doesn't sound like it'll sell many tickets.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

That doesn't sound like it'll sell many tickets.

It's too bad the team can't think of a long term investment and how many tickets/merchandise they could sell if they made a commitment to a full rebuild and drafted top five for a couple years. How many tickets do you think will be sold if Holland keeps pulling the "compete" card and we still keep missing the playoffs?

 

[Redder Winger]

Like Arizona, Colorado, Buffalo, Carolina, Edmonton, and etc all have been doing since Shep was a pup? Seems like a brilliant idea if you want to get stuck in that hole.

Not me, though. I want Wings to rebuild with leadership and vets to help show the young kids the way and hold them accountable when they act immature. And they are kids, they are immature. You NEED balance. No exceptions, that is NEEDED for a rebuilding team that doesn't want to stay in the basement like all the aforementioned hockey clubs.

Sabres calling for a yet, another, rebuild.

Could you imagine how good of a team they could have become had they just done the rebuild right the first time? What you're suggesting is exactly how Sabres have done their rebuilds. Let history teach you something....IT DOESN'T WORK!

Right. Outside of Zetterberg and Kronwall, which "veterans" are going to show the kids "the right way."

Justin Zero Cups Abdelkader?

You've got no evidence that suggests you need to have an expensive, cap-maxed-out, old team to have kids develop properly.

Who were all the vets that Kane and Toews learned from in their first couple years? In the pre-Hossa years?

Buffalo has an unproven coach, a paper-thin defense (not helped by the fact they've traded away Myers and Zadorov) and very little offensive depth -- because they've not picked well in later rounds.

Finishing last or second and picking in the top 3 doesn't guarantee anything.

But if you cash in on your top 3 and then have reasonable success in later rounds, you're going to come around.

 

[jkutswings]

That doesn't sound like it'll sell many tickets.

Hope in future success sells less than current success, true. But a lack of both is where they're at currently, which leads to even fewer dollars spent on tickets (and tv contracts and merchandise as well).

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Who cares about the quality on the ice? The concourse will sell tickets.

 

[jkutswings]

Who cares about the quality on the ice? The concourse will sell tickets.

That's it! Holland hasn't avoided rebuilding the team; he's just been REALLY busy checking out the concourse at the new arena.

 

[kliq]

I really don't see what benefit could come from him saying that.

It'd be nice to know if our GM understands where the team is.

Or just.. you know... being able to truthfully express the reality of the situation would be nice too. Isn't that its own "benefit?"

Here is what would happen. He would piss off season ticket holders which would cost them money, and he would appease a very small segment of fans that post on boards like this which would not benefit the team financially at all, and he would appease a few member in the media.

Have fun justifying that to the team owner.

 

[Redder Winger]

Here is what would happen. He would piss off season ticket holders which would cost them money, and he would appease a very small segment of fans that post on boards like this which would not benefit the team financially at all, and he would appease a few member in the media.

Have fun justifying that to the team owner.

Great. So he can go the Calgary Flames model.

By the way. With the Wings and Pistons in there this season, that place is making money hand over fist for the Ilitches.

 

[kliq]

Great. So he can go the Calgary Flames model.

By the way. With the Wings and Pistons in there this season, that place is making money hand over fist for the Ilitches.

What are you talking about? I get you're bitter but please read what I actually wrote. I am talking about what he says to the media, not about what he does. Please give me one reason why I should care about what he says?

Mock all you want, but as far as "tickets sold" go, the Wings rank #3 in the NHL. 2017-2018 NHL Attendance - National Hockey League - ESPN

That is what matters to the owners, don't forget its a business.

And don't shoot the messenger, I am just explaining to you the reality of why certain things are said in press conferences. Nothing in this post reflects my views about what should or should not be done.

 

[ricky0034]

That doesn't sound like it'll sell many tickets.

the irony is it matters less now than it would have in the past or will in the future due to the new arena drawing people in itself to an extent

it's inevitable at some point and if tickets are the concern that's a pretty big wasted opportunity

 

[Shaman464]

What are you talking about? I get you're bitter but please read what I actually wrote. I am talking about what he says to the media, not about what he does. Please give me one reason why I should care about what he says?

Mock all you want, but as far as "tickets sold" go, the Wings rank #3 in the NHL. 2017-2018 NHL Attendance - National Hockey League - ESPN

That is what matters to the owners, don't forget its a business.

And don't shoot the messenger, I am just explaining to you the reality of why certain things are said in press conferences. Nothing in this post reflects my views about what should or should not be done.

Those ticket holders are the most fickle (and take this with a ton of salt) I have a friend who works for OE as a supervisor of the "ticket executives" and he says that a lot of the tickets that were sold were people in two groups: Corporate buyers and ticket resellers. Both are only locking to buy hot tickets, and are very fickle. Right now LCA is seen as a hot ticket because its new, but next season with a losing hockey team and no shine left on the arena it will fall.

 

[kliq]

Those ticket holders are the most fickle (and take this with a ton of salt) I have a friend who works for OE as a supervisor of the "ticket executives" and he says that a lot of the tickets that were sold were people in two groups: Corporate buyers and ticket resellers. Both are only locking to buy hot tickets, and are very fickle. Right now LCA is seen as a hot ticket because its new, but next season with a losing hockey team and no shine left on the arena it will fall.

Ya most likely, they sell a ton of tickets to corporate buyers and I'm sure re-sellers purchase a ton as well. Though as far as ownership goes ticket sales are ticket sales.

My point is not to dispute who is buying what, that doesn't really matter. My point was addressing a poster earlier in the thread asking the question as to why doesn't Holland admit he is going into full re-build mode, and my response was because it will hurt ticket sales, and it will.

 

[Shaman464]

Ya most likely, they sell a ton of tickets to corporate buyers and I'm sure re-sellers purchase a ton as well. Though as far as ownership goes ticket sales are ticket sales.

My point is not to dispute who is buying what, that doesn't really matter. My point was addressing a poster earlier in the thread asking the question as to why doesn't Holland admit he is going into full re-build mode, and my response was because it will hurt ticket sales, and it will.

I think at this point it's half dozen of one and 6 of another. Either way 2 seasons without making the playoffs, irrespective of them announcing their intent to rebuild will end with a severe reduction in sales. Even this season I think the LCA opening is what is causing the ticket consumption to be higher than otherwise.

 

[Pavels Dog]

It's too bad the team can't think of a long term investment and how many tickets/merchandise they could sell if they made a commitment to a full rebuild and drafted top five for a couple years. How many tickets do you think will be sold if Holland keeps pulling the "compete" card and we still keep missing the playoffs?

Look, we were 1 point out of the bottom 5 last year and this year we are so far definitely in the bottom 5 unless something big changes. Finishing in the bottom 1-2 is a tall task when you have teams like Colorado last year and Arizona this year. But without maximum lottery misfortune we should be getting top 5 picks. What Holland says is largely meaningless, and really other than taking quotes out of context Holland is mostly talking about the team being in rebuild mode. He simply doesn't want to go into every season saying "rebuild", which to me is reasonable and 99% of GMs follow that same strategy. Even Chayka can be found talking playoffs (and acquiring guys like Stepan/Hjalmarsson definitely isn't a rebuilding move).

There's also this obsession from a certain percentage of this board with top 3-5 picks, ignoring how most rebuilding teams have found significant pieces in the 5-15 range or later. Rielly, Kadri, Nylander, Seabrook etc. That's beyond how most have hit on one or two guys in later rounds before becoming contenders. Getting that top 3 pick is big, it can be extremely helpful. But you can't disregard other top 10 picks as if they're not going to move the needle at all. It's a process.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Look, we were 1 point out of the bottom 5 last year and this year we are so far definitely in the bottom 5 unless something big changes. Finishing in the bottom 1-2 is a tall task when you have teams like Colorado last year and Arizona this year. But without maximum lottery misfortune we should be getting top 5 picks. What Holland says is largely meaningless, and really other than taking quotes out of context Holland is mostly talking about the team being in rebuild mode. He simply doesn't want to go into every season saying "rebuild", which to me is reasonable and 99% of GMs follow that same strategy. Even Chayka can be found talking playoffs (and acquiring guys like Stepan/Hjalmarsson definitely isn't a rebuilding move).

There's also this obsession from a certain percentage of this board with top 3-5 picks, ignoring how most rebuilding teams have found significant pieces in the 5-15 range or later. Rielly, Kadri, Nylander, Seabrook etc. That's beyond how most have hit on one or two guys in later rounds before becoming contenders. Getting that top 3 pick is big, it can be extremely helpful. But you can't disregard other top 10 picks as if they're not going to move the needle at all. It's a process.

The thing is, nobody is saying picks outside the top-5 are meaningless. You are arguing a point nobody has made.

What people are arguing is that those top-5 picks are extremely important. The Blackhawks got guys like Seabrook outside of the top-5, but they also got Kane and Toews within the top-5. The Maple Leafs got Marner and Matthews within the top-5. Do the Blackhawks win a cup without Kane and Toews? Do the Leafs get to contender status without Matthews and Marner? Do the Penguins earn their first cup without Crosby/Malkin/Staal/Fleury?

And even if you can still get elite talent outside of the top-5, the chances are higher that you will get that game-changing piece within the top-5 (and those chances dwindle the further down you go), which is why many people here are pushing for a strategy that gets us higher picks sooner. And why people are frustrated Holland has dragged his feet (and seemingly continues to do so).

 

[Pavels Dog]

The thing is, nobody is saying picks outside the top-5 are meaningless. You are arguing a point nobody has made.

What people are arguing is that those top-5 picks are extremely important. The Blackhawks got guys like Seabrook outside of the top-5, but they also got Kane and Toews within the top-5. The Maple Leafs got Marner and Matthews within the top-5. Do the Blackhawks win a cup without Kane and Toews? Do the Leafs get to contender status without Matthews and Marner? Do the Penguins earn their first cup without Crosby/Malkin/Staal/Fleury?

And even if you can still get elite talent outside of the top-5, the chances are higher that you will get that game-changing piece within the top-5 (and those chances dwindle the further down you go), which is why many people here are pushing for a strategy that gets us higher picks sooner. And why people are frustrated Holland has dragged his feet (and seemingly continues to do so).

I'm trying to put some perspective to the idea that Holland is somehow "dragging his feet" or that our rebuild is so incredibly slow compared to others. There is definitely a recurring argument that picks outside of the top 5 or even top 3 don't move the needle and don't have much chance to land us the kind of players we need. Which has some truth to it, but compare to other rebuilds;

Chicago:

Keith - 2002
Seabrook+Crawford - 2003
Hjalmarsson -2005
Toews - 2006
Kane - 2007

So 5-6 years for the majority of their cup-winning core to be acquired, all but one outside the playoffs.

Right now our timeline is something like this:

(2012, last time we traded away our 1st - first step towards focusing on future)
Mantha - 2013
Larkin - 2014
Cholowski+Hronek - 2016
Rasmussen - 2017
??? - 2018
??? - 2019

Time will tell, but we could look at 6-7 years for the majority of our future core to be drafted, with around half of that being as a playoff team. These players are suggestions, it's possible that Saarijarvi or Kotkansalo or even FA signings become core guys. If we are unlucky with the guys we've already drafted and/or we miss in '18 it can add time to the rebuild. But that's true for literally all teams, and our track record is at least more reassuring than for a lot of other teams. We are finding depth, and other than Svechnikov having an awful season every 1st since 2013 is looking promising or even great (Larkin). It stands to reason that the combination of additonal picks and much higher draft position SHOULD pay off for us, compared to other teams that have needed those factors to land decent NHLers to being with.

The idea that we need to burn the team to the ground in order to land those Toews/Kane pieces before we acquire anything else doesn't really add up when you look other successful rebuilds. Toronto's success right now has a lot to do with picks going back to 08 (Schenn, traded for JvR their current leader in goalscoring). It took change in their management and coaching to really nail the turnaround, but their process would be a hell of a lot further away from complete if they didn't have Rielly/Kadri/JvR, they'd look a lot more like Buffalo/Edmonton.

A rebuild is a process. Ours has been going on for a while and is now in full gear. Rebuilds by definition are slow and what we're seeing in the fanbase right now has a lot to do with impatience when it comes to development time and lack of faith that players drafted outside the top 3-5 can actually be part of our future core even if they're not that obvious superstar talent on draft day. We're right on track in terms of already having some good young pieces, having a lot of d-men in the system (they take longer to develop, could be 5+ years until some reach their potential), and now we're headed for top picks. Basically what we need is a major hit or two in the draft (Dahlin? '19 1st? Hronek? Cholo?), and a coaching change and we've followed a good rebuilding blueprint (Chicago) in a much, much more efficient manner without going scorched earth, spending a decade outside the playoffs, or being so bad that the team risks relocating.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

The idea that we need to burn the team to the ground

It is hard having an honest conversation with people when they regularly attribute opinions to me that I don't share, and have made an effort to keep away from.

I am not suggesting the team needs to burn it all down.

 

[Frk It]

Toronto's success right now has a lot to do with picks going back to 08 (Schenn, traded for JvR their current leader in goalscoring). It took change in their management and coaching to really nail the turnaround, but their process would be a hell of a lot further away from complete if they didn't have Rielly/Kadri/JvR, they'd look a lot more like Buffalo/Edmonton.

Boy has this narrative ever changed.

Prior to Matthews on this board it was, "see Toronto has been bad awhile and there's no end in sight". They were the team everyone liked to point a finger at.

Then they actually allow themselves to free-fall and get Matthews, and turn it around, and now it's because of Kadri, JVR, and Rielly?

I mean I agree it's a process, and even elite talents don't fix EVERYTHING... but if we never get a top 3 pick, we will never return to a contender. I'll bet a big sum of money on that, no problem. Lottery doesn't make it easy, but it probably will need to happen at some point, regardless of whatever else we do.

 

[Dotter]

What the Wings are doing currently is exactly how you rebuild. Right down to the 'T'. They have vets and are filting in youth. They have more draft picks than they have ever had in 20+ years. They are drafting top 10. They are doing great with asset management (Ott, Smith, Jurco, etc). They are giving ice time to the kids.

They are doing what an honest rebuilding team needs to do. It's not fun hockey, but that's the price you pay.

 

[kliq]

I think at this point it's half dozen of one and 6 of another. Either way 2 seasons without making the playoffs, irrespective of them announcing their intent to rebuild will end with a severe reduction in sales. Even this season I think the LCA opening is what is causing the ticket consumption to be higher than otherwise.

Agreed, with the team playing like it is they are all ready getting into uncharted territory.