Crunching the Numbers: Why Re-Building is Harder than Ever

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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Boy has this narrative ever changed.

Prior to Matthews on this board it was, "see Toronto has been bad awhile and there's no end in sight". They were the team everyone liked to point a finger at.

Then they actually allow themselves to free-fall and get Matthews, and turn it around, and now it's because of Kadri, JVR, and Rielly?

I mean I agree it's a process, and even elite talents don't fix EVERYTHING... but if we never get a top 3 pick, we will never return to a contender. I'll bet a big sum of money on that, no problem. Lottery doesn't make it easy, but it probably will need to happen at some point, regardless of whatever else we do.

It will definitely bring the probability down if they don't land one, but I don't think getting a 3rd or say a 4th are really that much of a difference. Wings need elite talent, and yes, every pick they drop the percentages of landing that go down, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking that a top 3 pick guarantees anything.

I'm not trying to dismiss what you are saying though, I get your point. Higher pick = higher odds.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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It will definitely bring the probability down if they don't land one, but I don't think getting a 3rd or say a 4th are really that much of a difference. Wings need elite talent, and yes, every pick they drop the percentages of landing that go down, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking that a top 3 pick guarantees anything.

I'm not trying to dismiss what you are saying though, I get your point. Higher pick = higher odds.

Top 3 has a very strong correlation to providing elite players, the league intentionally drew the line there for the lottery re-structure for that reason.

Also not a coincidence that the vast majority of Cup Winners over the last 15-20 years have at least one top 3 pick on it.
 

kliq

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Dec 17, 2017
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Top 3 has a very strong correlation to providing elite players, the league intentionally drew the line there for the lottery re-structure for that reason.

Also not a coincidence that the vast majority of Cup Winners over the last 15-20 years have at least one top 3 pick on it.

Like I said, it definitely increases the probability of obtaining an elite talent.
 

Shaman464

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What the Wings are doing currently is exactly how you rebuild. Right down to the 'T'. They have vets and are filting in youth. They have more draft picks than they have ever had in 20+ years. They are drafting top 10. They are doing great with asset management (Ott, Smith, Jurco, etc). They are giving ice time to the kids.

They are doing what an honest rebuilding team needs to do. It's not fun hockey, but that's the price you pay.


I can't hear you over them signing Daley. As for asset management? No real trades in the offseason, poor management of the expansion draft roster, and the way they are giving out minutes? First at least the first quarter of the season Holland et al believed this was a playoff team and last year was a fluke. As for your draft pick point, given the way Detroit use to give away picks like candy just having all their picks a couple seasons back was 'most draft picks in 20+ years'. So getting a couple extra lower round picks isn't something I am going to get hot and bothered over. Until those picks are top 40, they are likely meaningless.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Like I said, it definitely increases the probability of obtaining an elite talent.

To the extent where one could realistically deem it essential... :)

I like the guys projected to go 4-8 this year quite a bit, so I'm not worried about it. Also this team is going to be bad once Mike Green departs. Like pretty stinky bad. So we should stand a pretty good shot at a top 3 pick in the '19 draft if we don't make some band-aid signings and shoot ourselves in the foot.

So I'm actually decently optimistic things could work out pretty nicely over the next 2 drafts.
 
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Redder Winger

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Right.
Trading a 25 year old fairly cheap center because YOU HAVE NO f***ING CAP ROOM to sign a 23 year old for $1.5M -- that's EXACTLY HOW YOU REBUILD - to a T.

If the Wings were rebuilding to a T, Helm, Nielsen and Abdelkader and Kronwall and Ericsson and Howard would be trade bait.
 

Redder Winger

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There's nothing left "to burn down," fellas.
This burned down on its own.

We already suck.
About the only "burn it down" move you can make now is to trade Zetterberg.

Every other veteran trade is standard operating procedure.
 

Dotter

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I can't hear you over them signing Daley. As for asset management? No real trades in the offseason, poor management of the expansion draft roster, and the way they are giving out minutes? First at least the first quarter of the season Holland et al believed this was a playoff team and last year was a fluke. As for your draft pick point, given the way Detroit use to give away picks like candy just having all their picks a couple seasons back was 'most draft picks in 20+ years'. So getting a couple extra lower round picks isn't something I am going to get hot and bothered over. Until those picks are top 40, they are likely meaningless.

1. Daley is a trade-able asset that is filling the void while kids filter in. Not hard to figure out. Basic common sense, really. (really discouraging this has to be spelled out again! - basic common sense)

2. A "fluke"? Lol, I have swamp land in Florida I'll sell ya! Trump is building a "wall", too! Hahahaha! (gullible people are so adorable=)

3. re: draft picks. Wings being tied for 2nd for most draft picks out of the entire NHL isn't something helpful towards rebuilding? Especially for one for the above average teams that finds late round players? God forbid Wings find a "Johnny Gaudreau" with one of their late picks. That sure would suck, huh??!! (lord have mercy, I really got to explain this???) /facepalm

4. Wings lost an expandable depth player we acquired for free... which we have an abundance of... and we're crying about that?? LOLOLOL!!!! (nitpick much?) /bravo!!

5. Lol @ rebuilding team not making "any real trades" in the offseason, WTF? I have to question peoples' "armchair GM" capabilities. You're just so bad at it....

It's just amazing how oblivious people are. In the last two years combined (17/18), Detroit will most likely have more draft selections than any other team in the entire NHL. And that's not rebuilding and good asset management because extra 2nd-7th round picks are "garbage"??? If you're Edmonton Oilers, you might be correct. Lol, Wings are not the Edmonton Oilers.
 
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Dotter

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Right.
Trading a 25 year old fairly cheap center because YOU HAVE NO ****ING CAP ROOM to sign a 23 year old for $1.5M -- that's EXACTLY HOW YOU REBUILD - to a T.

If the Wings were rebuilding to a T, Helm, Nielsen and Abdelkader and Kronwall and Ericsson and Howard would be trade bait.

Glendening has scored almost TWICE AS MANY GOALS as your boy. How does that make you feel? LOL , Are youu telletubby #1 fanboy now? Not only is Sheahan off the team, Ken Holland got a fricking draft pick for getting rid of the bum! Lol That's a WIN no matter how you slice it!
 

Shaman464

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1. Daley is a trade-able asset that is filling the void while kids filter in. Not hard to figure out. Basic common sense, really. (really discouraging this has to be spelled out again! - basic common sense)

2. A "fluke"? Lol, I have swamp land in Florida I'll sell ya! Trump is building a "wall", too! Hahahaha! (gullible people are so adorable=)

3. re: draft picks. Wings being tied for 2nd for most draft picks out of the entire NHL isn't something helpful towards rebuilding? Especially for one for the above average teams that finds late round players? God forbid Wings find a "Johnny Gaudreau" with one of their late picks. That sure would suck, huh??!! (lord have mercy, I really got to explain this???) /facepalm

4. Wings lost an expandable depth player we acquired for free... which we have an abundance of... and we're crying about that?? LOLOLOL!!!! (nitpick much?) /bravo!!

5. Lol @ rebuilding team not making "any real trades" in the offseason, WTF? I have to question peoples' "armchair GM" capabilities. You're just so bad at it....

It's just amazing how oblivious people are. In the last two years combined (17/18), Detroit will most likely have more draft selections than any other team in the entire NHL. And that's not rebuilding and good asset management because late picks are "garbage". If you're Edmonton Oilers, you might be correct. Lol, Wings are not the Edmonton Oilers.

Stealth tank is real! 9/11 was an inside job! The moon landing was a sound stage in New Mexico.

Lets look at the facts as to why this year wasn't intended to be a tank:

1. Going into a brand new stadium: The City of Detroit is coming out of bankruptcy and just game the Illitch's hundreds of millions of dollars in tax friendly loans and promises. If LCA doesn't attract money like they promise they are in a pinch. Why? For a lot of reasons, first the types of loans they got aren't all the same, some require refinancing or complete payment by set dates. Two teams and a new stadium that are hemorrhaging aren't the best ways to inspire lender confidence. Second if the entertainment district doesn't come together the way Olympia Entertainment promised they can kiss their cheap land deals and future city investments good bye.
2. Holland and Blashill's going into contract years: Both have their jobs on the line if the team isn't profitable. With the way the roster is constructed right now they are most profitable when they make the playoffs. Missing them twice in a row hurts their ability to sell season tickets, to sell to corporate buyers and make people less likely to shell out half a paycheck to watch the team play. If Holland was serious about a tank, especially with pressure to be profitable he would have moved the team closer to the floor.
3. Daley: I have no idea how you get he's a tradeable asset. He was a sheltered D-man that excelled on defensively deep teams. He also got a 2 year full NTC. So that makes it harder to trade him, being that his stats are in severe decline and he has protection against being traded in his contract. On the track he's on, in his last year they will be lucky to get anything for him
5. Yes, rebuilding teams trade in the offseason, like trading up in the draft, or trading one of their bloated contracts. Or trading a winger, which they have tons of for assets they need like picks or prospects. Not hard really to think about this. Instead Holland waits till the cap forced his hand and traded an asset that was at the lowest value for next to nothing.
6. When was the last time Detroit found a Gaudreau in the late rounds? Detroit's secret is out and their scouting is pretty suspect.

But go on, talk about common sense when every sign points to them intending to be a playoff team this year.
 

Dotter

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"When was the last time Detroit found a Gaudreau", so they should give up drafting in the late rounds like Edmonton? Lol, Classic!

He [Daley] also got a 2 year full NTC

His Full NTC expires in 2018/19. Which is next season, hoss. Wings aren't trading him this season since they are most likely trading Green and have no one to fill the void. Is it really that hard to figure out?

You don't turn over a roster in a year. That's bad asset management. I honestly believe you have no clue how to effectively build a team.
 

Shaman464

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"When was the last time Detroit found a Gaudreau", so they should give up drafting in the late rounds like Edmonton? Lol, Classic!



His Full NTC expires in 2018/19. Which is next season, hoss. Wings aren't trading him this season since they are most likely trading Green and have no one to fill the void. Is it really that hard to figure out?

You don't turn over a roster in a year. That's bad asset management. I honestly believe you have no clue how to effectively build a team.

Jesus hell, do you even read what was said? I said he has a two year NTC and that by the time it expires he won't have any value because his numbers are taking a nose dive. And as for roster turn over, the contract Holland is giving out doesn't point to him looking to turn over the roster any time in the near future. You don't give up multi year deals to role players when you're trying to turn over your roster.
 

Dotter

THE ATHLETIC IS GARBAGE
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Jesus hell, do you even read what was said? I said he has a two year NTC and that by the time it expires he won't have any value because his numbers are taking a nose dive. And as for roster turn over, the contract Holland is giving out doesn't point to him looking to turn over the roster any time in the near future. You don't give up multi year deals to role players when you're trying to turn over your roster.

Don't kid yourself, Daley will have trade value next season. Ken Holland has 14 contracts expiring over the course of the next 4 years... 4 year is the near future.
 

WingedWheel1987

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Jan 11, 2011
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Why would Daley have trade value next season? Is he secretly holding his talent back to help the stealth tank?

Kenny sure is a genius. Fingers crossed he gets an extension so i can witness his decade long stealth tank.
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
Why would Daley have trade value next season? Is he secretly holding his talent back to help the stealth tank?

Kenny sure is a genius. Fingers crossed he gets an extension so i can witness his decade long stealth tank.
What if the stealth tank has its own stealth build? By fielding what looks like a competitive team but actually is not, Holland is secretly rebuilding. But what's to prevent Holland from secretly making the rebuilding team too good in the hopes they can compete? Maybe he's operating at the double-secret level, sort of like 4D chess.
 

WingedWheel1987

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What if the stealth tank has its own stealth build? By fielding what looks like a competitive team but actually is not, Holland is secretly rebuilding. But what's to prevent Holland from secretly making the rebuilding team too good in the hopes they can compete? Maybe he's operating at the double-secret level, sort of like 4D chess.

So this is probably what's going on in Kenny's mind.
bcf.png
 

Shaman464

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Don't kid yourself, Daley will have trade value next season. Ken Holland has 14 contracts expiring over the course of the next 4 years... 4 year is the near future.

How many of those are RFAs? How many of those are players that are likely to be extended? Just saying 14 contracts are expiring doesn't mean 14 will be off the books. It's entirely possible that of those 2/3rds get extended.
 
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Redder Winger

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Glendening has scored almost TWICE AS MANY GOALS as your boy. How does that make you feel? LOL , Are youu telletubby #1 fanboy now? Not only is Sheahan off the team, Ken Holland got a fricking draft pick for getting rid of the bum! Lol That's a WIN no matter how you slice it!

What's any of this have to do with rebuilding?

If you're rebuilding, you trade your expensive 35 year olds. Not your cheap 25 year olds.
 

Dotter

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Why would Daley have trade value next season? Is he secretly holding his talent back to help the stealth tank?

Kenny sure is a genius. Fingers crossed he gets an extension so i can witness his decade long stealth tank.

Derp. Look no further than Jakub Kindl who returned a 6th just 2 years ago...

Don't let logic get in the way of your amazing story telling.
 

Claypool

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Jan 12, 2009
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Daley is a great depth defenseman for any team, especially ones that need Stanley Cup experience. Players like him will also be desired at trade deadlines.
 

WingedWheel1987

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Derp. Look no further than Jakub Kindl who returned a 6th just 2 years ago...

Don't let logic get in the way of your amazing story telling.

The Wings retained a portion of Kindl's salary. That's embarrassing since he was only making 2.4 million.

Do you seriously think a few extra 6th round picks is going to make any difference? The Wings need multiple first round picks if they hope to ever get out of purgatory.

This team is going nowhere.
 

WingedWheel1987

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Did it cost you a P&J sandwich? Did it take away from buying Christmas presents? Why are you worried about Ilitches money? Did you pay it?

Rebuilding teams retain contracts. Whoopie!!!

Rebuilding teams don't hand out half decade long contracts to 30+ players.

Rebuilding teams do not spend to the cap every season.

Rebuilding teams don't ice the oldest roster in the league.

You live in a fantasy land.

The Wings are just a poorly managed franchise.
 

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