Crunching the Numbers: Why Re-Building is Harder than Ever

[Redder Winger]

Why? Because we're losing? That's what you want isn't it?

If you're going to lose, lose young.

And there's no youngster other than maybe AA who is pushing for icetime right now. Unfortunately Svech is doing awful and his development probably isn't helped by being in the NHL. Hicketts doesn't seem ready (and may never be) and Hronek/VS are just getting their feet wet in the AHL. You have to start realizing this will be a rebuilding year and we will be bad. Playing youngsters won't change that, all it can do is hurt their development by running them out there to get demoralized and potentially injured if they're not physically ready.

And?
If I was running these lines:
Zetterberg Larkin Tatar
Nyquist Athanasiou Mantha
Abdelkader Nielsen Frk
Bertuzzi Glendening Helm

Nobody's gonna get demoralized or hurt.

Vancouver has cut the Sedins' icetime like crazy to play the kids. How are they doing any worse than Detroit?

On defense, it's a different story.
But I'd trade Green and Daley right now and eat contract to do it. I'd also trade Ericsson and Kronwall if anyone would take them,
I'd finish the season with whatever is left...
Dekeyser, Jensen, Ouellet, Witkowski... whatever we couldn't trade... and then Lashoff or McIlrath or whichever kid looks worthy of a callup (Russo, Hicketts, Hronek)

In goal, I'd ride Mrazek as far as he can get to the trade deadline.
Maybe he can show enough to be a good goalie.
Maybe he can improve his trade value.
Or maybe he can prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that we should just let him walk.

Next season, we COULD see the start of a big youth movement on our D. I could see Cholowski and one of VS/Hronek pushing for a job. If we get lucky and land Dahlin or some other high-end D maybe there's someone else pushing too. Rasmussen along with Svech/Bert could push for jobs up front. The rebuild is happening and I don't know why people are ignoring the fact that we're headed for a bottom 5 finish and keep harping on some random comments by Holland/Blash as if this team is a bubble team and our future is being hurt because we're not tanking. IF Holland thought this team was supposed to be a playoff team he would have made changes by now. Comments like "the next 10-15 games are critical" and then doing nothing is essentially saying "the team sucks, but I won't start selling 30 games into the season because that's dumb". At the TDL guys like Green, Mrazek and more will be moved, youngsters will be moved up from GR, and the bottom could fall out. Or, the youngsters play great and we play ourselves out of a top 5 pick. That's sadly possible considering the fact Hronek/VS/Hicketts could easily outplay some of the veteran D on the roster. So if I was in favor of a tank I would want nothing more than a continuation of the veterans playing a lot. We know what we have in them, and it's not much.

Because
1) We're spending to the max on contracts.
2) We have the oldest roster in the NHL.
3) We're playing Helm, Abdelkader, Glendening and Nielsen in the top 9 and Athanasiou and Frk on line 4.
4) We're playing Howard instead of Mrazek.
5) We're playing anyone instead of Ouellet.

If you're going to lose, lose young. Get SOMETHING out of it.
Find a silver lining.

Running out the string is a lousy way to lose.

 

[Redder Winger]

I'd settle for:

"Yeah, we're in rebuild mode. Playoffs aren't in the picture."

He says the opposite. He keeps talking about wanting to make the playoffs. It's ridiculous and reality denial, the thing I hate most in this world.

And then the action.
The trading of salaries.
THe opening of roster and lineup spaces for youngsters.
The acquisition of prospects and picks.

It's how it's done.

 

[kliq]

If you're going to lose, lose young.




And?
If I was running these lines:
Zetterberg Larkin Tatar
Nyquist Athanasiou Mantha
Abdelkader Nielsen Frk
Bertuzzi Glendening Helm

Nobody's gonna get demoralized or hurt.

Vancouver has cut the Sedins' icetime like crazy to play the kids. How are they doing any worse than Detroit?

On defense, it's a different story.
But I'd trade Green and Daley right now and eat contract to do it. I'd also trade Ericsson and Kronwall if anyone would take them,
I'd finish the season with whatever is left...
Dekeyser, Jensen, Ouellet, Witkowski... whatever we couldn't trade... and then Lashoff or McIlrath or whichever kid looks worthy of a callup (Russo, Hicketts, Hronek)

In goal, I'd ride Mrazek as far as he can get to the trade deadline.
Maybe he can show enough to be a good goalie.
Maybe he can improve his trade value.
Or maybe he can prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that we should just let him walk.






Because
1) We're spending to the max on contracts.
2) We have the oldest roster in the NHL.
3) We're playing Helm, Abdelkader, Glendening and Nielsen in the top 9 and Athanasiou and Frk on line 4.
4) We're playing Howard instead of Mrazek.
5) We're playing anyone instead of Ouellet.

If you're going to lose, lose young. Get SOMETHING out of it.
Find a silver lining.

Running out the string is a lousy way to lose.

I understand in theory why you would want to play Mrazek/XO etc. more, but in reality it does nothing. We won't be any better, we wont be any worse, we wont be any closer to a championship. If anything I worry that playing Mrazek will just hurt is value even more then it already is. He's worth a 3rd right now from what I read, if he comes in and plays like last year and he could be worth practically nothing. We need elite talent, while I would like to see the Frk's of the world play more, it doesnt move the needle.

We definitely need to shed some cap, I dont think any Wings fans would argue that. Personally the moves I would like to see are trading Green at the deadline for a 1st, trading Mrazek for whatever we can get, in the offseason ideally trading Helm, E, Nielsen and Glendening. Trading for a top young D-man (maybe AA/Nyquist/picks) but I'm not even sure if that would land us much and hopefully we draft a stud in draft. I also would make a run at JT in the off-season, as if we could land him and draft Dahlin (I know this has practically zero chance) and we dumped that cap, our team all of a sudden looks completely different.

 

[kliq]

Actions and words
vs
fan speculation that Holland is tanking, despite spending to the max, despite saying he isn't tanking, and despite Blashill playing a 34 year old goalie over a 25 year old goalie and a 23 year old potential top 6 forward on line 4.

Frankly, the idea that Ken Holland and the Red Wings is in rebuild mode is crazy.

He's trying to re-build while maintaining competitiveness. To say he's not re-building at all is crazy, to say he in full re-build mode is crazy to. He's in this middle ground where he has 1 foot in, 1 foot out.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

He's trying to re-build while maintaining competitiveness. To say he's not re-building at all is crazy, to say he in full re-build mode is crazy to. He's in this middle ground where he has 1 foot in, 1 foot out.

I think you are expressing people's problems with this rebuild. If we are going to build for the next wave of stars, we need to move forward. Being a middling team that likely won't make the playoffs (and certainly won't compete in them) will just make it more difficult to axtually acquire the stars we need, particularly on defense.

 

[kliq]

I think you are expressing people's problems with this rebuild. If we are going to build for the next wave of stars, we need to move forward. Being a middling team that likely won't make the playoffs (and certainly won't compete in them) will just make it more difficult to axtually acquire the stars we need, particularly on defense.

Very fair point, I agree for the most part.

My guess is that this is a mandate from ownership. Likely a mandate that is being put forth so ticket sales don't nose dive. That's just a guess though, I don't have any proof of that.

 

[Claypool]

I think you are expressing people's problems with this rebuild. If we are going to build for the next wave of stars, we need to move forward. Being a middling team that likely won't make the playoffs (and certainly won't compete in them) will just make it more difficult to axtually acquire the stars we need, particularly on defense.

if there was no draft lottery I'd agree with you.

 

[kliq]

if there was no draft lottery I'd agree with you.

The NHL has definitely changed it so bottoming out guarantees nothing.

 

[jkutswings]

if there was no draft lottery I'd agree with you.

Every team in the league could have equal odds, and I'd still want to unload players that won't be part of the future, to add more picks and/or prospects.

 

[Claypool]

Every team in the league could have equal odds, and I'd still want to unload players that won't be part of the future, to add more picks and/or prospects.

We know you just want to burn it down. Nobody cares.

 

[Pavels Dog]

If you're going to lose, lose young.

Why? The benefit is what? And most of all; what is the benefit to losing young for 82 games instead of losing with veterans for 50-60 games and then inserting more kids post-TDL? Do the kids need to be the ones getting all the blame? Is their development helped by fans resenting them and by being in over their head in a can't-win situation? Do you create a competitive athmosphere by just throwing every kid with a pulse into the NHL instead of having them fight for jobs even if the NHL team isn't very good?

Toronto inserted a bunch of rookies when they STOPPED tanking. Coincidence?

This "lose young" attitude is impatient thinking. There's no way to fast-forward a rebuild. Throwing every kid onto the roster right now doesn't show us what we have like some believe it does. It just shows us how most kids aren't ready. The youngsters are coming. In time.

If I was running these lines:
Zetterberg Larkin Tatar
Nyquist Athanasiou Mantha
Abdelkader Nielsen Frk
Bertuzzi Glendening Helm

Nobody's gonna get demoralized or hurt.

That's a marginal change from the lines we've been running. So, like another poster said, you're basically talking about AA. And sure, I get that. I like AA too. But 10 years from now we're not going to sit around saying "if only we had given AA 2-3 minutes extra icetime back in 2017 we would have been a contender right now".

Because
1) We're spending to the max on contracts.
2) We have the oldest roster in the NHL.
3) We're playing Helm, Abdelkader, Glendening and Nielsen in the top 9 and Athanasiou and Frk on line 4.
4) We're playing Howard instead of Mrazek.
5) We're playing anyone instead of Ouellet.

1) ...so?
2) Roster age is one of the most meaningless statistics in the NHL. We will get younger but the important part is the core players age. The youngest rosters are almost never successful so that's nothing to strive for.
3) Glendening is 10th in TOI among our forwards. And whose fault is it that Helm, Abby and Nielsen are much better players than AA and Frk? AA has potential but he has no one to blame but himself for not getting more icetime (btw he's 9th in TOI, so top 9 minutes).
4) Yes, teams usually play their better goalie more than their worse. This is also good in order to preserve Mrazek's value as much as possible. However, I would like to see more games for Mraz.
5) Which matters how? XO is not the future of this team. He could become a #5-6 but honestly.. who the F cares?

Most of your complaints seems to be about Blashill decisions. And I agree he sucks. But he's not able to deny Larkin for example, showing that when a kid truly plays well he will give them icetime.

In goal, I'd ride Mrazek as far as he can get to the trade deadline.
Maybe he can show enough to be a good goalie.
Maybe he can improve his trade value.
Or maybe he can prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that we should just let him walk.

And maybe, just maybe, he tanks whatever trade value he has and it costs us a draft pick we could get. But what are you gonna do? Hire a coach that just dances to the GMs tune? Any coach with integrity would play Howard above Mrazek.

Vancouver has cut the Sedins' icetime like crazy to play the kids. How are they doing any worse than Detroit?

The average age of their top 5 forwards in icetime is 25,2. Ours is 27,2. Basically the difference is Zetterberg is still good enough to warrant that kind of icetime and Vancouver has acquired some random guys like Sutter which isn't something we should be doing. It's not like we're riding only veterans. Larkin is #1 in TOI/G. And Vancouver has missed the playoffs 3 out of the last 4 years meaning they should be a little further along in the process.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I'd settle for:

"Yeah, we're in rebuild mode. Playoffs aren't in the picture."

He says the opposite. He keeps talking about wanting to make the playoffs. It's ridiculous and reality denial, the thing I hate most in this world.

I really don't see what benefit could come from him saying that.

 

[Flowah]

I really don't see what benefit could come from him saying that.

It'd be nice to know if our GM understands where the team is.

Or just.. you know... being able to truthfully express the reality of the situation would be nice too. Isn't that its own "benefit?"

 

[Dotter]

It'd be nice to know if our GM understands where the team is.

Or just.. you know... being able to truthfully express the reality of the situation would be nice too. Isn't that its own "benefit?"

If you hold your ear close to the ground, you can hear the bison coming.

"We had a tough year. We're trying to build our team," Holland said. --
June, 19th 2017

 

[ArGarBarGar]

if there was no draft lottery I'd agree with you.

The draft lottery doesn't make it as easy to get top-5 picks, but there still is a lower chance of earning those picks by being a middling team.

A strategy that gives you worse odds to get what you need is not ideal. Sure you can bank on getting lucky and having a few more wins per season, but how reliable is that strategy, and what more are you really getting out of it short term?

 

[Dotter]

If you're going to lose, lose young.

Like Arizona, Colorado, Buffalo, Carolina, Edmonton, and etc all have been doing since Shep was a pup? Seems like a brilliant idea if you want to get stuck in that hole.

Not me, though. I want Wings to rebuild with leadership and vets to help show the young kids the way and hold them accountable when they act immature. And they are kids, they are immature. You NEED balance. No exceptions, that is NEEDED for a rebuilding team that doesn't want to stay in the basement like all the aforementioned hockey clubs.

Sabres calling for a yet, another, rebuild.

Could you imagine how good of a team they could have become had they just done the rebuild right the first time? What you're suggesting is exactly how Sabres have done their rebuilds. Let history teach you something....IT DOESN'T WORK!

 

[Claypool]

A strategy that gives you worse odds to get what you need is not ideal.

To be clear, I want to make sure you know you're talking about a strategy that is only effective 18% of the time. It also doesn't factor in that, in most cases, there is no clear #1 draft player. In a year with Crosby, McDavid or Matthews, I'll at least subscribe to the idea, but most years it's a crap shoot. So even if you are lucky enough to win the lottery you also have to be lucky enough to select the right player.

 

[Henkka]

I'd settle for:

"Yeah, we're in rebuild mode. Playoffs aren't in the picture."

He says the opposite. He keeps talking about wanting to make the playoffs. It's ridiculous and reality denial, the thing I hate most in this world.

Yeah, it's ridiculous when he says that. But it's the ticket selling phrase. There are masses of people who still believe Red Wings. People will believe much more stupid things, like God. Someone will believe for Red Wings, no matter how bad they are.

And they PAY. Those believers or entertainment catchers pay the tickets and buy the beers and cokes and pizzas on the arena. So business keeps going.

That's the BUSINESS PHRASE Holland keeps saying no matter what he thinks in reality or acts in reality. He is rebuilding, but won't forget the business talk, again, because owners want to sell the product, not matter how bad it is.

Here at HF Boards, this ring of people who understands and who are worried are 50 people group. If you stop going on games, It's nothing on the big picture. 200 people is 1 percent of the Little Caesars capacity. 50 people is quarter of that. It doesn't mean a shit for the business how we feel in here or how we "know" the things or how we feel it's ridiculous when Holland talks about playoffs, when in reality he is rebuilding.

He is a smart man and I truly understand this 2-bladed sword. LEt him talk and let him rebuild. His actions prove his mind more than his talks.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

To be clear, I want to make sure you know you're talking about a strategy that is only effective 18% of the time. It also doesn't factor in that, in most cases, there is no clear #1 draft player. In a year with Crosby, McDavid or Matthews, I'll at least subscribe to the idea, but most years it's a crap shoot. So even if you are lucky enough to win the lottery you also have to be lucky enough to select the right player.

Which strategy are you referring to? Completely blowing it up or moving short term pieces and shooting for a bottom 5 finish in the hopes to obtain a top-5 pick?

I am not saying we have to tank and go for the number one overall pick. There is nuance to a major rebuild that does not begin and end with tearing it all down.

 

[Claypool]

Which strategy are you referring to? Completely blowing it up or moving short term pieces and shooting for a bottom 5 finish in the hopes to obtain a top-5 pick?

I am not saying we have to tank and go for the number one overall pick. There is nuance to a major rebuild that does not begin and end with tearing it all down.

Moving short term pieces when it's clear they are not making the playoffs (which I believe we've now reached).

I also don't believe there's a major difference, statistically, finishing 3rd to last or 7th to last. We're talking about single-digit percentage points in variation.

 

[Dotter]

Yeah, it's ridiculous when he says that. But it's the ticket selling phrase. There are masses of people who still believe Red Wings. People will believe much more stupid things, like God. Someone will believe for Red Wings, no matter how bad they are.

And they PAY. Those believers or entertainment catchers pay the tickets and buy the beers and cokes and pizzas on the arena. So business keeps going.

That's the BUSINESS PHRASE Holland keeps saying no matter what he thinks in reality or acts in reality. He is rebuilding, but won't forget the business talk, again, because owners want to sell the product, not matter how bad it is.

Here at HF Boards, this ring of people who understands and who are worried are 50 people group. If you stop going on games, It's nothing on the big picture. 200 people is 1 percent of the Little Caesars capacity. 50 people is quarter of that. It doesn't mean a **** for the business how we feel in here or how we "know" the things or how we feel it's ridiculous when Holland talks about playoffs, when in reality he is rebuilding.

He is a smart man and I truly understand this 2-bladed sword. LEt him talk and let him rebuild. His actions prove his mind more than his talks.

In addition to what you already said, many of those in that group also refuse to acknowledge what gives the players motivation to play if their own GM is plastering all over the media with; "I want the team to suck" and "I want to tank", "we want to lose", "we want to fail", "we will do whatever it takes to get the best possible draft selections", "we will cut anyone's throat for Dahlin". What does that accomplish other than appeasing a few random hockey fans complaining on a message forum?

It's a very thin line you have to walk when rebuilding. You can't go all caveman and relentless, it'll cause more harm than good. Ken Holland said in that interview posted on here they are, in fact, rebuilding without saying it in an idiotic manner. No good will come out of him saying "Today and until the unforeseeable future, we shall officially be a tanking and basement team until we draft our next group of franchise saviors"

If I'm Larkin and I read that in the headline one morning, I am telling Kenny to trade me ASAP to any team not begging to lose.... or pay me MILLIONS over my actual worth just so I can afford more alcohol to drown my sorrows away, and I'll come to work drunk, overweight and out of shape to help the 'cause'. Who wants to part of a business that their primary strategy is failing, whiling not giving two shits about me as a player. Screw that! Have some class and self respect! Nobody wants to be part of that garbage.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Moving short term pieces when it's clear they are not making the playoffs (which I believe we've now reached).

I also don't believe there's a major difference, statistically, finishing 3rd to last or 7th to last. We're talking about single-digit percentage points in variation.

It is a non zero difference, and can be the difference between a top-5 pick and not. The short term enjoyment (which isn't much at this point) doesn't make it worth it long term.

 

[obey86]

The draft lottery doesn't make it as easy to get top-5 picks, but there still is a lower chance of earning those picks by being a middling team.

A strategy that gives you worse odds to get what you need is not ideal. Sure you can bank on getting lucky and having a few more wins per season, but how reliable is that strategy, and what more are you really getting out of it short term?

Are you saying the Wings are a "middling team?" They are 4th to last in points, 5th to last in goal differential, and 4th to last in ROW's. There is a decent argument to made that they are like the 3rd worst team in the NHL. That's a long ways away from middling.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Are you saying the Wings are a "middling team?" They are 4th to last in points, 5th to last in goal differential, and 4th to last in ROW's. There is a decent argument to made that they are the 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NHL.

They could finish as a middling team if they get on a lucky streak or one of their goaltenders has a hot streak.

I also don't think the current performance of the team is part of the plan, but an unfortunate eventuality that will have taken too long to have happened.

 

[obey86]

They could finish as a middling team if they get on a lucky streak or one of their goaltenders has a hot streak.

I also don't think the current performance of the team is part of the plan, but an unfortunate eventuality that will have taken too long to have happened.

You could say that about any team. The Wings could also finish with the #1 pick if they go 2-20-3 over their next 25 games. Let's talk about reality though....they're in the convo for the worst team in the league that's not Arizona.

That's usually how things work. Teams don't want to be terrible.