Crunching the Numbers: Why Re-Building is Harder than Ever

[HIFE]

There's group "A" and group "B" and a shade of group "C".

Group "A" is all about full tank. If you have a contract longer than 1 year for a player older than 20 years old and if the average age of teh team is over 24yrs old, then Ken Holland is "out of touch" and "doesn't know how to rebuild" -- play the kids even if it ruins them. In my opinion, because I am group "C", I think that is very unrealistic and detrimental to a logical rebuild. I believe those kind of rebuilds set you back. Wayyy back. We can see evidence of that from other teams like Sabres and Avalanche among many other young teams.

Group "B" is about good drafting and trading. They don't fully buy into the scorched earth TANK. And see the teams' current age and cap hit isn't a problem going forward, since there's apparent 4 to 5 year plan happening right now.

Group "C" is all about drafting. Rebuild through the draft doesn't mean 5 straight years of 1st overall picks, but shotgun approach at hoping to net that next Shea Weber or Subban or Johnny Gaudreau. Turn non-future players (Sheahan/Jurco) into draft picks. Green this year, Trevor Daley next year. All for picks... Then in 2019/20 sign another type of Trevor Daley or Ott, or Vanek to flip for picks. And repeat until you build your core. The rebuild will take 10 years... possibly 8 if we get Penguins type luck (not likely). Age of team and contracts doesn't matter. These players are not part of the future. They are the backbone of the team now to avoid being the Avs, Sabres, Oilers, Coyotes and etc... who wants to be a basement team every-single-season while drafting generational talent you pay $12.5 (most in the NHL) next season?

Group "A" is a very vocal small bunch that can't understand anything but their "method" as being the only possible right way. Group "B and "C" will never get onboard with Group "A". We are less vocal because we are a "wait-and-see" group, whereas Group "A" want instant change and results now and want the city to burn until it happens (or want ticket sales to plummet, which hurts the city/surrounding business just for instant change to a hockey franchise they want everyone to boycott).

This is a childlike generalization of the fans, including NHL fans and observers. As varied as the opinions here are the thought process considering the Wings isn't just black or white. Everybody knows you rebuild through the draft.

In reality the far greater majority are not pleased with Holland or the Wings. I guess you don't read comments form Mlive, DFP, WIIM, etc? 80% of the posts mock Holland or the team. Didn't you hear fans chanting "come home Stevie"? The hardcore fans (at least in Michigan) know this team is dead in the water. They're ready for an overhaul, at the very least an aggressive move or two to signal a break from the past. From sports analysts to HF polls the vast majority are sort of in disbelief at how slow Holland is approaching a rebuild- and how poor is our outlook for the near future.

Hey I respect the small yet devout group that is loyal to Holland and supportive of (most) his deals the last 5 years. 95% of HF may laugh at the Wings but in a way I'm glad there's a few who won't allow their pride to sway.

 

[kliq]

This is a childlike generalization of the fans, including NHL fans and observers. As varied as the opinions here are the thought process considering the Wings isn't just black or white. Everybody knows you rebuild through the draft.

In reality the far greater majority are not pleased with Holland or the Wings. I guess you don't read comments form Mlive, DFP, WIIM, etc? 80% of the posts mock Holland or the team. Didn't you hear fans chanting "come home Stevie"? The hardcore fans (at least in Michigan) know this team is dead in the water. They're ready for an overhaul, at the very least an aggressive move or two to signal a break from the past. From sports analysts to HF polls the vast majority are sort of in disbelief at how slow Holland is approaching a rebuild- and how poor is our outlook for the near future.

Hey I respect the small yet devout group that is loyal to Holland and supportive of (most) his deals the last 5 years. 95% of HF may laugh at the Wings but in a way I'm glad there's a few who won't allow their pride to sway.

I dont understand why there has to be such a divide on this board. It appears that in the eyes of a lot of people you are either a stupid Holland "apologist" who can't see reality, or an over the top Holland "hater" who is just being moron.

I think that his breakdown was accurate to a degree, but sure it was definitely a bit bias. If you are someone who wants to see a lot of changes it really does paint you in a very specific light, but to be fair there are people that are that way. With that being said, I see your comments in a similar light, just from the other side.

Personally I land in the middle. I don't see Holland as this clueless idiot who has zero chance of putting things back together, but I also recognize the mistakes that have been made over the past 5 years or so and think there should be some accountability from Holland and/or ownership. They aren't 100% committing to a re-build, that is clear, but at the same time, to dismiss what they are doing as not re-building at all is just as ridiculous.

I guess I just wish people were more willing to look at things from all perspectives rather then seeing everything with such tunnel vision.

 

[Redder Winger]

All you need to know about the position that says that Holland is rebuilding just fine is that many of the people who held this position believed this team was a playoff team 6 weeks ago.

 

[kliq]

All you need to know about the position that says that Holland is rebuilding just fine is that many of the people who held this position believed this team was a playoff team 6 weeks ago.

I don't buy that it's that simple, that's just a dig at people with an opposing view.

 

[HIFE]

I dont understand why there has to be such a divide on this board. It appears that in the eyes of a lot of people you are either a stupid Holland "apologist" who can't see reality, or an over the top Holland "hater" who is just being moron.

I think that his breakdown was accurate to a degree, but sure it was definitely a bit bias. If you are someone who wants to see a lot of changes it really does paint you in a very specific light, but to be fair there are people that are that way. With that being said, I see your comments in a similar light, just from the other side.

Personally I land in the middle. I don't see Holland as this clueless idiot who has zero chance of putting things back together, but I also recognize the mistakes that have been made over the past 5 years or so and think there should be some accountability from Holland and/or ownership. They aren't 100% committing to a re-build, that is clear, but at the same time, to dismiss what they are doing as not re-building at all is just as ridiculous.

I guess I just wish people were more willing to look at things from all perspectives rather then seeing everything with such tunnel vision.

I don't think the divide is that great. The posters who've remained active here I would describe as pretty tolerant. I was trying to point out most opinions from Red Wings followers are somewhere in the middle area as you say. Definitely since last season the average opinion of Holland has trended towards the negative. From what I read many are open to him and Devellano stepping aside.

lomekian had a good post recently expressing the idea that while we might be emotional as sports fanatics, people should remind themselves these guys are human beings. Holland was an excellent scout and a very, very successful general manager. I agree it's idiotic to demonize and belittle a figure who was part of not just one of the most dominant eras of Red Wing hockey but the history of pro-sports the last 100 years. With rumors of him moving upstairs at the end of the season the vitriol makes even less sense.

 

[kliq]

I don't think the divide is that great. The posters who've remained active here I would describe as pretty tolerant. I was trying to point out most opinions from Red Wings followers are somewhere in the middle area as you say. Definitely since last season the average opinion of Holland has trended towards the negative. From what I read many are open to him and Devellano stepping aside.

lomekian had a good post recently expressing the idea that while we might be emotional as sports fanatics, people should remind themselves these guys are human beings. Holland was an excellent scout and a very, very successful general manager. I agree it's idiotic to demonize and belittle a figure who was part of not just one of the most dominant eras of Red Wing hockey but the history of pro-sports the last 100 years. With rumors of him moving upstairs at the end of the season the vitriol makes even less sense.

Very well said, you make some very good points here.

 

[Shaman464]

I feel like we agree partially. I just disagree that top 3 picks needs to be step 1 of a rebuild. Chicago drafted Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson before Kane/Toews. Toronto got Kadri/Rielly/Nylander/Marner. Winnipeg Scheifele/Connor/Trouba/etc. Pittsburgh is one of few examples where, other than hitting on Letang, it was a run of top 2 picks that made them succesful.

But you see it in teams that either burned down too much to get top 3 picks or have been too bad at drafting outside the early 1st, they have a hard time getting any traction. Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida, Arizona, Colorado etc.

We are reaching the bottom fairly quickly and organically. On the way there we are collecting talent. Larkin, Mantha, Cholowski, Hronek, Saarijarvi, Rasmussen, Lindstrom, etc. When we get those top 3 picks, they'll have guys to play with and we can get that huge 1 year improvement, as opposed to landing those top 3 picks as step 1 of a rebuild and having them burn their ELC/RFA years before you build depth around them. And no matter what anyone says, you can't just go out in FA and land depth like Seabrook/Hjalmarsson/Saad/Hossa/Crawford in any given offseason. Every piece matters.

Our rebuild won't be a 1:1 replica of anyone else. No one else in the cap era has come down from a long playoff streak and entered a rebuild. Few or no "true", well-managed rebuilds have been attempted in the cap era. It's either been the totally mismanaged teams with long streak outside the playoffs, or teams like Boston/SJ/Montreal/NYR that have been retooling around some core players and been up-and-down.

You name what is literally almost exclusively non-core talent as signs that this team is somehow rebuilding. Detroit isn't like any team I can name because this team doesn't have a real core outside of literally 1 player and that's Z, and newsflash that won't last. Right now the only player that has any chance of being a core player is Larkin and he likely will be the most replaceable part of any core that Detroit may build. Without 2 top 2 d-men, and a top center this team isn't going anywhere fast. And so long as Holland is at the top they will be much too conservative to take the risk necessary to secure the talent necessary to contend anytime soon.

 

[kliq]

You name what is literally almost exclusively non-core talent as signs that this team is somehow rebuilding. Detroit isn't like any team I can name because this team doesn't have a real core outside of literally 1 player and that's Z, and newsflash that won't last. Right now the only player that has any chance of being a core player is Larkin and he likely will be the most replaceable part of any core that Detroit may build. Without 2 top 2 d-men, and a top center this team isn't going anywhere fast. And so long as Holland is at the top they will be much too conservative to take the risk necessary to secure the talent necessary to contend anytime soon.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Zetterberg is a part of the future core. Can I ask why you don't consider Mantha a part of the core? Are you down on him as a player?

Personally I think that if you throw in an elite D (crossing my fingers for Dahlin) and can sign or draft one more elite forward that we will have a strong core. Easier said then done, I get that. But I don't think you are giving Mantha/Larkin enough credit.

 

[Shaman464]

I don't think anyone is arguing that Zetterberg is a part of the future core. Can I ask why you don't consider Mantha a part of the core? Are you down on him as a player?

Personally I think that if you throw in an elite D (crossing my fingers for Dahlin) and can sign or draft one more elite forward that we will have a strong core. Easier said then done, I get that. But I don't think you are giving Mantha/Larkin enough credit.

To be part of a core a winger has to be more than a Franzen type player. Wingers that are core pieces have to be like Kucherov, Gaudreau, Ovie, Hall, Kane, etc level. For me a core of a healthy team is 4-6 players, usually 2-3 forwards, 2 defensemen, and a goalie. Sometimes it doesn't include a goalie, somethings it does include a winger, but usually its your top centers, and top 2 d-men. A winger who is a player that is a core player and not just an important periphery piece is one that is a threat most games they play. They don't necessarily need to be at or near ppg but they definitely need to be a engaged most of the time in games. Right now Mantha doesn't look he's out grown his compete issues and until he does, he won't be a core piece. He's one of my favorite players, so, I really do hope he does start to actually show up most games, but, Im not going to count that chicken.

 

[Red Stanley]

All you need to know about the position that says that Holland is rebuilding just fine is that many of the people who held this position believed this team was a playoff team 6 weeks ago.

Just from what I've read in the past year or so I don't think that's true. I can't think of one person on these boards who actively championed the idea that the Wings would be in the playoffs this year.

 

[kliq]

To be part of a core a winger has to be more than a Franzen type player. Wingers that are core pieces have to be like Kucherov, Gaudreau, Ovie, Hall, Kane, etc level. For me a core of a healthy team is 4-6 players, usually 2-3 forwards, 2 defensemen, and a goalie. Sometimes it doesn't include a goalie, somethings it does include a winger, but usually its your top centers, and top 2 d-men. A winger who is a player that is a core player and not just an important periphery piece is one that is a threat most games they play. They don't necessarily need to be at or near ppg but they definitely need to be a engaged most of the time in games. Right now Mantha doesn't look he's out grown his compete issues and until he does, he won't be a core piece. He's one of my favorite players, so, I really do hope he does start to actually show up most games, but, Im not going to count that chicken.

I see your point but I disagree. The kid is still young, and he has shown improvement every single year since his leg injury. He may not be at the level of the Wingers you listed, but if he keeps progressing, and gets to play for a great coach, I think you will be pleasantly surprised. Not saying he will be Ovie, but I think he will be a part of this team's core for years to come.

 

[kliq]

Just from what I've read in the past year or so I don't think that's true. I can't think of one person on these boards who actively championed the idea that the Wings would be in the playoffs this year.

Agreed. For the most part, what I have read about this team is that fans think they suck, or they are mediocre. Some fans thought that if everything went right they could sneak in to that 8th seed, but with the parity in today's NHL, I dont think that is far fetched to say about almost any team not named Arizona.

Heck, who would have thought Vegas would be in a playoff spot come January. I don't think many self appointed experts saw that coming.

 

[Winger98]

Agreed. For the most part, what I have read about this team is that fans think they suck, or they are mediocre. Some fans thought that if everything went right they could sneak in to that 8th seed, but with the parity in today's NHL, I dont think that is far fetched to say about almost any team not named Arizona.

Heck, who would have thought Vegas would be in a playoff spot come January. I don't think many self appointed experts saw that coming.

Including their GM. I bet Mcphee was really planning on selling some of those guys for a high price this year and grabbing more 1st and 2nd rounders. If he did that now it would look brutal, and probably alienate whatever local fans they have been grooming. If they stay in the playoff race, I think they have to keep everyone, and risk seeing a bunch of guys walk for nothing after the season, or trading their rights for peanuts.

 

[Red Stanley]

Including their GM. I bet Mcphee was really planning on selling some of those guys for a high price this year and grabbing more 1st and 2nd rounders. If he did that now it would look brutal, and probably alienate whatever local fans they have been grooming. If they stay in the playoff race, I think they have to keep everyone, and risk seeing a bunch of guys walk for nothing after the season, or trading their rights for peanuts.

If Vegas management is unhappy with how this season has unfolded so far, they have no souls.

 

[Dotter]

If Vegas management is unhappy with how this season has unfolded so far, they have no souls.

Wings fans would say, despite being 9-0-1 their last 10 and having an unbelievable season, they need to sell now. Sell, sell, tank, tank. Because the team has no future.

 

[SimplySolace]

Wings fans would say, despite being 9-0-1 their last 10 and having an unbelievable season, they need to sell now. Sell, sell, tank, tank. Because the team has no future.

Fans in real life or in your head?

 

[Dotter]

I mean some fans on this message forum have claimed they have been calling for a rebuild since 2010 because they saw "the writing on the wall"/

 

[Henkka]

If Vegas management is unhappy with how this season has unfolded so far, they have no souls.

Vegas management is just totally surprised how much better team you can have without a multi-year contract laziness. Everybody is catching a carrot there.

 

[kliq]

Including their GM. I bet Mcphee was really planning on selling some of those guys for a high price this year and grabbing more 1st and 2nd rounders. If he did that now it would look brutal, and probably alienate whatever local fans they have been grooming. If they stay in the playoff race, I think they have to keep everyone, and risk seeing a bunch of guys walk for nothing after the season, or trading their rights for peanuts.

I was thinking about that as it puts them in a unique position now. Vegas doesnt have a ton of elite talent, but they have enough good talent and very good coaching to compete (kind of like us in 2014/15).
I'm thinking they were hoping to suck this year and land a Dahlin or Svechnikov in the draft.

I'm pretty sure if they make the playoffs then "tear it down" their fanbase would feel betrayed.