Crunching the Numbers: Why Re-Building is Harder than Ever

[WingedWheel1987]

Ken Holland knows what to do. You don't have to be a teacher for him in these boards.

He speaks another thing and acts another thing. That's what most of people won't understand in here.

Kenny says the fans don't want a traditional rebuild. Kenny says he doesn't like traditional rebuilds.

Kenny then goes out and gives 5+ year contracts to Gator, Helm and DD. Then Kenny signs a 30+ Frans Nielsen to a six year contract and also Trevor Daley to a three year contract. Let's not also forget that Kenny offered Brendan Smith a long term contract before trading him to NY.

His actions backup his talk. But yes, let's ignore reality and suggest that Kenny says one thing, but does something totally different.

 

[Dotter]

Kenny says the fans don't want a traditional rebuild. Kenny says he doesn't like traditional rebuilds.

Kenny then goes out and gives 5+ year contracts to Gator, Helm and DD. Then Kenny signs a 30+ Frans Nielsen to a six year contract and also Trevor Daley to a three year contract. Let's not also forget that Kenny offered Brendan Smith a long term contract before trading him to NY.

His actions backup his talk. But yes, let's ignore reality and suggest that Kenny says one thing, but does something totally different.

Kenny says rebuilds take 8-10 years.
FACT: rebuilds take 8-10 years based on historical data (Pens and CHI). Unless you're Oilers, 3 rebuilds later... still trying/failing!

Kenny says he's going to inject youth.
FACT: Kenny injects about 2 to 3 rookies per season.

Kenny says you don't turn over a roster in 1 year. He says 4 years.
FACT: Red Wings have over 14 contracts expiring over the course of 4 years.

Kenny says elite teams happen through drafting.
FACT: Red Wings acquired more draft picks last season and drafted more prospects than they've had in 20+ years. And are on pace for the same in '18

I don't know what a "traditional rebuild" is, but Wings are losing and are getting good draft picks in the process. I guess that seems traditional rebuilding to me. Maybe he means nobody likes rebuilding like Sabres/Oilers where they just suck forever and trade off their former top draft players (Tyler Myers/Vanek, Hall/Yakupov) only to start a new rebuild-era. Who wants that?

 

[WingedWheel1987]

If the Wings are "rebuilding" then i'm on a diet when i drink a diet coke to go with my double bacon cheeseburger.

Traditional rebuilds take 8-10 years.

Ken Holland isn't being traditional. Unless spending to the cap while rebuilding is traditional.

Kenny's rebuild consists trying to be a bubble team every year and banking on 2% chance that they win the lottery.

Wings expected time of completion for their rebuild should be around the time the sun turns into a red giant.

 

[kliq]

edit

 

[kliq]

Kenny says the fans don't want a traditional rebuild. Kenny says he doesn't like traditional rebuilds.

Kenny then goes out and gives 5+ year contracts to Gator, Helm and DD. Then Kenny signs a 30+ Frans Nielsen to a six year contract and also Trevor Daley to a three year contract. Let's not also forget that Kenny offered Brendan Smith a long term contract before trading him to NY.

His actions backup his talk. But yes, let's ignore reality and suggest that Kenny says one thing, but does something totally different.

I think its pretty clear what Ken Holland is doing, he is trying to re-build through the draft, while remaining competitive. It worked in the mid 2000's, and then it didn't work between 2011-2016. Now he's trying it again with Larkin, Mantha, AA etc.

Its tough, fans point to Chicago and Pittsburgh, but for every Chicago or Pittsburgh, there is an Arizona, Carolina, Buffalo etc.

I think at some point you need to start selling away assets and begin to re-build, but I am not for the tanking/burning it to the ground mentality as I think that builds a losing culture that is hard to get out of.

 

[Redder Winger]

I think its pretty clear what Ken Holland is doing, he is trying to re-build through the draft, while remaining competitive. It worked in the mid 2000's, and then it didn't work between 2011-2016. Now he's trying it again with Larkin, Mantha, AA etc.

Its tough, fans point to Chicago and Pittsburgh, but for every Chicago or Pittsburgh, there is an Arizona, Carolina, Buffalo etc.

I think at some point you need to start selling away assets and begin to re-build, but I am not for the tanking/burning it to the ground mentality as I think that builds a losing culture that is hard to get out of.

The Red Wings are going to lose anyway.
Check the standings.
28th out of 32 teams.

We've already tanked.
The losing culture is here.
It's not like you can just keep the winning culture just because your GM isn't trying to tank.
If you start losing, you start losing.

Ken Holland and Jeff Blashill just look extra dumb because they actually acted like they were going to win.
Because they are paid like a team that is expected to win.

But Holland and Blashill were/are delusional.

The question is, has reality burst their fantasy yet? And if so, are they finally going to start acting accordingly?

Or are Ken Holland and Jeff Blashill too proud and/or stupid to do what needs to be done?

 

[SpookyTsuki]

I think its pretty clear what Ken Holland is doing, he is trying to re-build through the draft, while remaining competitive. It worked in the mid 2000's, and then it didn't work between 2011-2016. Now he's trying it again with Larkin, Mantha, AA etc.

Its tough, fans point to Chicago and Pittsburgh, but for every Chicago or Pittsburgh, there is an Arizona, Carolina, Buffalo etc.

I think at some point you need to start selling away assets and begin to re-build, but I am not for the tanking/burning it to the ground mentality as I think that builds a losing culture that is hard to get out of.

For every Arizona/Buffalo is a bad point though. The only proven way has been with tanking. (Chicago,pitt,la). Now I don’t want to tank but I want the team to try hard and just be bad really. There has been no other proven way and what the wings are trying/tried has or is failed/failing

 

[SantosHalper]

It's time to tank for a right reason, it's Rasmus Dahlin season. If we're lucky at the lottery. Fact of the matter it is that Red Wings started the rebuild after Datsyuk left and Wings missed the playoffs.

Now it's just matter of the time when we get the elite talent through the draft. Re-signing Gator, Helm and DDK with long deals, doesnt't mean that aren't rebuilding, They are just are veteran help for the kids, they are teaching how to be everyday player in the big leagues. And the Nielsen signing will be important after Zetterberg retires, then Wings needs a center who can take role of top-6 center. Because there's no need rush with the Ras, play him as a third line center at first. Then we will see if can he handle the role as a NHL center or is he better as a winger.

Keep calm and trust Ken Holland. He's been in this game for a long long time, he knows how to handle rebuild. He was a director of scouting, last time when the Red Wings we're rebuilding. Rebuild is gonna take lot of time no matter how you do it.

 

[kliq]

For every Arizona/Buffalo is a bad point though. The only proven way has been with tanking. (Chicago,pitt,la). Now I don’t want to tank but I want the team to try hard and just be bad really. There has been no other proven way and what the wings are trying/tried has or is failed/failing

I wouldnt say its the only way, not every championship caliber team has gotten to where they are by tanking. Yes, those three teams got there that way, and since they have dominated cup wise over the past decade it does show that (though Pitts did not aquire Crosby by tanking), but plenty of teams have built their teams in other ways.

This is besides the point, I am not saying I am against a re-build, but I want a strategic re-build. I am all for trading away assets, but to turn your team into total trash is a different story.

 

[Redder Winger]

For every Arizona/Buffalo is a bad point though. The only proven way has been with tanking. (Chicago,pitt,la). Now I don’t want to tank but I want the team to try hard and just be bad really. There has been no other proven way and what the wings are trying/tried has or is failed/failing

The players should play to win.

The GM needs to take away the coach's veterans. For the veterans who can't be traded, Holland needs to lay down the law with Blashill.
It's time to cut back on their icetime.

 

[kliq]

The Red Wings are going to lose anyway.
Check the standings.
28th out of 32 teams.

We've already tanked.
The losing culture is here.
It's not like you can just keep the winning culture just because your GM isn't trying to tank.
If you start losing, you start losing.

Ken Holland and Jeff Blashill just look extra dumb because they actually acted like they were going to win.
Because they are paid like a team that is expected to win.

But Holland and Blashill were/are delusional.

The question is, has reality burst their fantasy yet? And if so, are they finally going to start acting accordingly?

Or are Ken Holland and Jeff Blashill too proud and/or stupid to do what needs to be done?

I think we have a different opinion of what "tanking" is. You call simply losing tanking (hence your comment we've already tanked), I call stripping your team of EVERYTHING tanking. Being bad for a few years and acquiring draft picks is something I am fine with, but making your team complete garbage on purpose is a different thing.

As far as culture goes, I am talking about it from an internal perspective, so what it is in the locker room, in the office. etc. Not what the fans think, of course the fans are going to feel that way, they are fans, they get emotional. But when you have a team that just sucks year in year out (ie. Buffalo, Edmonton, Arizona, Carolina etc.) it has a major effect in that locker room and can be hard to dig your self out of.

Don't mistaken my post as me saying that I accept mediocrity, or that I like the current direction. What I am saying is that actual tanking is an extreme that rarely works.

 

[Dotter]

The players should play to win.

The GM needs to take away the coach's veterans. For the veterans who can't be traded, Holland needs to lay down the law with Blashill.
It's time to cut back on their icetime.

You're essentially requesting the Red Wings to make the same critical mistakes Sabres made and are now paying dearly for. It's a transition, a process, and most importantly patience is virtual. Ken Holland has it narrowed down to a logical timeline and you can clearly see the pieces are falling in place. After Wings get the 2018 6th rounder (or whatever), they will be that much stronger. Wings will soon be on an upswing and will continue trending up from there. Those kids will replace the vets... as you can clearly see happening now.

You don't rebuild a team in 1 single season. It has never happened and never will happen.

 

[kliq]

You're essentially requesting the Red Wings to make the same critical mistakes Sabres made and are now paying dearly for. It's a transition, a process, and most importantly patience is virtual. Ken Holland has it narrowed down to a logical timeline and you can clearly see the pieces are falling in place. After Wings get the 2018 6th rounder (or whatever), they will be that much stronger. Wings will soon be on an upswing and will continue trending up from there. Those kids will replace the vets... as you can clearly see happening now.

You don't rebuild a team in 1 single season. It has never happened and never will happen.

I agree with some of what you are saying, but for the Wings to become contenders again they need to acquire elite level talent and I dont think you can "clearly see the pieces falling into place". They could be, but its no guarantee.

Its possible Larkin/Mantha/Chowolski all turn into elite talent and then we can build around them, but most likely we need to acquire truly elite talent via the draft or free agency. Maybe 1 or if we are really lucky maybe 2 of those 3 make that transition into elite status, but I would feel much better about our chances if we landed Dahlin or a guy like JT or Karlson (which yes I know are longshots) through free agency.

This team is loaded with secondary talent, but we need those top guys. What I want to see, is us do something similar to what T.O did. Dump some cap, keep some vets, and hopefully land a game changer in the draft as well as some great young complimentary pieces.

 

[kliq]

The players should play to win.

The GM needs to take away the coach's veterans. For the veterans who can't be traded, Holland needs to lay down the law with Blashill.
It's time to cut back on their icetime.

You're essentially referring to AA. Larkin leads all forwards in ice time with 19:43 min per game, followed by Z, Nyquist, Tatar, Mantha. Other then Z, those are all younger guys. On D the leaders are a bit older, but I dont think Jensen/XO playing more really will make a difference. I would like to see Hicketts brought up at some point though.

 

[Dotter]

I agree with some of what you are saying, but for the Wings to become contenders again they need to acquire elite level talent and I dont think you can "clearly see the pieces falling into place". They could be, but its no guarantee.

Its possible Larkin/Mantha/Chowolski all turn into elite talent and then we can build around them, but most likely we need to acquire truly elite talent via the draft or free agency. Maybe 1 or if we are really lucky maybe 2 of those 3 make that transition into elite status, but I would feel much better about our chances if we landed Dahlin or a guy like JT or Karlson (which yes I know are longshots) through free agency.

This team is loaded with secondary talent, but we need those top guys. What I want to see, is us do something similar to what T.O did. Dump some cap, keep some vets, and hopefully land a game changer in the draft as well as some great young complimentary pieces.

My comment "clearly falling into place" means, for one example, Larkin over... say Stephen Weiss. Weiss out, Larkin in = "step in the right direction". That's just one example.

And 30 other teams will feel better if they get Dahlin. That's natural. But regardless, whoever Detroit drafts in the top 6 should be HUGE for this organization going forward. Another step in the right direction.

Wings also need to count on some late draft gems as well. Kenny is on pace to draft 22 kids in 2 years. That is also HUGE for a team that is above average in later round drafting. It's all a process and you're not going to know what you truly have in 4 or 5 years. Dahlin would be nice though, and would help speed up the process. But winning him is going to take more luck than just trying to suck hard, it's going to take a miracle. But we can dream.

 

[kliq]

My comment "clearly falling into place" means, for one example, Larkin over... say Stephen Weiss. Weiss out, Larkin in = "step in the right direction". That's just one example.

And 30 other teams will feel better if they get Dahlin. That's natural. But regardless, whoever Detroit drafts in the top 6 should be HUGE for this organization going forward. Another step in the right direction.

Wings also need to count on some late draft gems as well. Kenny is on pace to draft 22 kids in 2 years. That is also HUGE for a team that is above average in later round drafting. It's all a process and you're not going to know what you truly have in 4 or 5 years. Dahlin would be nice though, and would help speed up the process. But winning him is going to take more luck than just trying to suck hard, it's going to take a miracle. But we can dream.

What I was getting at is that we need elite talent. I'm not trying to sell the fact that we will get Dahlin, because in reality the percentages are against it from happening. Whether it's him, another kid in the draft, or a UFA, that is what needs to happen for us to get back to winning cups.

This following isn't directed at you, but I think that sometimes people take extreme stances when it comes building a contender. Its either "sign, sign, sign", "tank, tank, tank" etc. The way to truly get to where you need is a combination of luck, strategy, smart draft pics, and good UFA signings/trades.

Pittsburgh was mentioned earlier, if you really look at how they built their current team, it wasn't from tanking. Here are their top players and how they acquired them:

Crosby: (Luck) - from a lottery where all teams had a 1/30 shot
Letang: (Smart Drafting) - Drafted 62 overall
Malkin: (Result of a bad season) - Drafted 2nd Overall
Kessel: (Smart Trade)
Schultz: (Smart Trade)
Hornqvist: (Smart Trade)
Murray: (Smart Drafting) - Drafted 83rd overall

My point being, to get where they are today, they didnt need to get 5 years worth of top 5 picks which were given to them by tanking. What they did was they complied a great team with a combination of luck, strategy, smart draft pics, and good UFA signings/trades.

If we land that elite guy in the draft this year, and add that to the kids we have, a healthy combination of existing vets, dump a few salaries, and sign a UFA or two (ideally not overpaid mediocrity), and I dont think we are that far away from being contenders.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The players should play to win.

The GM needs to take away the coach's veterans. For the veterans who can't be traded, Holland needs to lay down the law with Blashill.
It's time to cut back on their icetime.

Why? Because we're losing? That's what you want isn't it?

And there's no youngster other than maybe AA who is pushing for icetime right now. Unfortunately Svech is doing awful and his development probably isn't helped by being in the NHL. Hicketts doesn't seem ready (and may never be) and Hronek/VS are just getting their feet wet in the AHL. You have to start realizing this will be a rebuilding year and we will be bad. Playing youngsters won't change that, all it can do is hurt their development by running them out there to get demoralized and potentially injured if they're not physically ready.

Next season, we COULD see the start of a big youth movement on our D. I could see Cholowski and one of VS/Hronek pushing for a job. If we get lucky and land Dahlin or some other high-end D maybe there's someone else pushing too. Rasmussen along with Svech/Bert could push for jobs up front. The rebuild is happening and I don't know why people are ignoring the fact that we're headed for a bottom 5 finish and keep harping on some random comments by Holland/Blash as if this team is a bubble team and our future is being hurt because we're not tanking. IF Holland thought this team was supposed to be a playoff team he would have made changes by now. Comments like "the next 10-15 games are critical" and then doing nothing is essentially saying "the team sucks, but I won't start selling 30 games into the season because that's dumb". At the TDL guys like Green, Mrazek and more will be moved, youngsters will be moved up from GR, and the bottom could fall out. Or, the youngsters play great and we play ourselves out of a top 5 pick. That's sadly possible considering the fact Hronek/VS/Hicketts could easily outplay some of the veteran D on the roster. So if I was in favor of a tank I would want nothing more than a continuation of the veterans playing a lot. We know what we have in them, and it's not much.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

What I was getting at is that we need elite talent. I'm not trying to sell the fact that we will get Dahlin, because in reality the percentages are against it from happening. Whether it's him, another kid in the draft, or a UFA, that is what needs to happen for us to get back to winning cups.

This following isn't directed at you, but I think that sometimes people take extreme stances when it comes building a contender. Its either "sign, sign, sign", "tank, tank, tank" etc. The way to truly get to where you need is a combination of luck, strategy, smart draft pics, and good UFA signings/trades.

Pittsburgh was mentioned earlier, if you really look at how they built their current team, it wasn't from tanking. Here are their top players and how they acquired them:

Crosby: (Luck) - from a lottery where all teams had a 1/30 shot
Letang: (Smart Drafting) - Drafted 62 overall
Malkin: (Result of a bad season) - Drafted 2nd Overall
Kessel: (Smart Trade)
Schultz: (Smart Trade)
Hornqvist: (Smart Trade)
Murray: (Smart Drafting) - Drafted 83rd overall

My point being, to get where they are today, they didnt need to get 5 years worth of top 5 picks which were given to them by tanking. What they did was they complied a great team with a combination of luck, strategy, smart draft pics, and good UFA signings/trades.

If we land that elite guy in the draft this year, and add that to the kids we have, a healthy combination of existing vets, dump a few salaries, and sign a UFA or two (ideally not overpaid mediocrity), and I dont think we are that far away from being contenders.

The Crosby draft did have weights in place that helped them land the pick because of the Penguins futility. You also left out Fleury and Staal who were important players to some of the championships and the assets they have dealt with. The Penguins were an abysmal franchise with one of the worst stretches of hockey out of any franchise in the league. So much so that they almost moved to Portland it got so bad.

Sorry a five year stretch of drafting 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 2nd is the definition of tanking. The Penguins were intentionally bad too, they did the trick of dealing NHL caliber goalies to make sure they weren't starting a good enough guy in that stretch too before playing Fleury incredibly young to get his lumps. They lost, the management and ownership intentionally lost and were one of four teams with the maximum number of balls, the odds were in the favor to win, there was luck involved but they certainly improved their chances.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Kenny says rebuilds take 8-10 years.
FACT: rebuilds take 8-10 years based on historical data (Pens and CHI). Unless you're Oilers, 3 rebuilds later... still trying/failing!

Kenny says he's going to inject youth.
FACT: Kenny injects about 2 to 3 rookies per season.

Kenny says you don't turn over a roster in 1 year. He says 4 years.
FACT: Red Wings have over 14 contracts expiring over the course of 4 years.

Kenny says elite teams happen through drafting.
FACT: Red Wings acquired more draft picks last season and drafted more prospects than they've had in 20+ years. And are on pace for the same in '18

I don't know what a "traditional rebuild" is, but Wings are losing and are getting good draft picks in the process. I guess that seems traditional rebuilding to me. Maybe he means nobody likes rebuilding like Sabres/Oilers where they just suck forever and trade off their former top draft players (Tyler Myers/Vanek, Hall/Yakupov) only to start a new rebuild-era. Who wants that?

Good post, i feel like you're the only one who makes sense around here these days. Most of these posters won't be satisfied unless Kenny says out loud "I'm trying for last place this year so we can draft Crosby and play in the finals again asap."

 

[kliq]

The Crosby draft did have weights in place that helped them land the pick because of the Penguins futility. You also left out Fleury and Staal who were important players to some of the championships and the assets they have dealt with. The Penguins were an abysmal franchise with one of the worst stretches of hockey out of any franchise in the league. So much so that they almost moved to Portland it got so bad.

Sorry a five year stretch of drafting 5th, 1st, 2nd, 1st and 2nd is the definition of tanking. The Penguins were intentionally bad too, they did the trick of dealing NHL caliber goalies to make sure they weren't starting a good enough guy in that stretch too before playing Fleury incredibly young to get his lumps. They lost, the management and ownership intentionally lost and were one of four teams with the maximum number of balls, the odds were in the favor to win, there was luck involved but they certainly improved their chances.

I was talking about the team they have now, thats why I didnt mention Staal and Fleury. Had they not drafted those two players, I still believe they would have the team they have today. They likely would not have won in '09, but I think they still would have won in '16 and '17.

Staal was traded for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and a pick that ended up being Derrick Pouliot. Fleury was a backup the last two years. So I really don't think that the assets they acquired in those deals are major factors to their last 2 cups. (obviously not Fleury as it was afterwards).

My bad about the 2005 draft, I just looked it up and you are right. I thought every team had 1 ball, but apparently teams had either 1, 2, or 3 balls depending on their performance the previous year.

I do feel my point still stands though, and that is tanking does not equal success. Pittsburgh didnt NEED to be awful for 5 seasons, they just needed to land a franchise center. (getting two was just icing on the cake). To be successful you need combination of luck, strategy, smart draft pics, and good UFA signings/trades. Bottoming out in a year or two is not tanking IMO.

 

[kliq]

Good post, i feel like you're the only one who makes sense around here these days. Most of these posters won't be satisfied unless Kenny says out loud "I'm trying for last place this year so we can draft Crosby and play in the finals again asap."

Agreed. I dont know why people get so worked up about what GM's and coaches say in press conferences. In those settings they are like politicians, saying what they need to in an attempt to appease everyone (ie. players, fans, ownership, media etc.) Take it all with a grain of salt.

It's funny, if you listen to the local radio here in Detroit, some of the radio guys just eat that stuff up. I've never understood why.

 

[Flowah]

Good post, i feel like you're the only one who makes sense around here these days. Most of these posters won't be satisfied unless Kenny says out loud "I'm trying for last place this year so we can draft Crosby and play in the finals again asap."

I'd settle for:

"Yeah, we're in rebuild mode. Playoffs aren't in the picture."

He says the opposite. He keeps talking about wanting to make the playoffs. It's ridiculous and reality denial, the thing I hate most in this world.

 

[Redder Winger]

I think we have a different opinion of what "tanking" is. You call simply losing tanking (hence your comment we've already tanked), I call stripping your team of EVERYTHING tanking. Being bad for a few years and acquiring draft picks is something I am fine with, but making your team complete garbage on purpose is a different thing.

As far as culture goes, I am talking about it from an internal perspective, so what it is in the locker room, in the office. etc. Not what the fans think, of course the fans are going to feel that way, they are fans, they get emotional. But when you have a team that just sucks year in year out (ie. Buffalo, Edmonton, Arizona, Carolina etc.) it has a major effect in that locker room and can be hard to dig your self out of.

Don't mistaken my post as me saying that I accept mediocrity, or that I like the current direction. What I am saying is that actual tanking is an extreme that rarely works.

Ok.
But honestly, we couldn't strip this team everything if wanted to do.
Nobody is taking a lot of these contracts.

Hypothetically, since we're falling to the bottom anyway, why wouldn't we trade Abdelkader and Helm and Nielsen if we could?

Why wouldn't we move Kronwall and Ericsson for draft picks if anyone would take them?

We're going to suck either way.
Keeping Abdelkader, Helm and Nielsen might help us look more presentable some nights.
We might lose 2-1 instead of 4-2.

But who cares?
We're still losing.
And we're getting nothing out of those assets.

 

[Redder Winger]

Agreed. I dont know why people get so worked up about what GM's and coaches say in press conferences. In those settings they are like politicians, saying what they need to in an attempt to appease everyone (ie. players, fans, ownership, media etc.) Take it all with a grain of salt.

It's funny, if you listen to the local radio here in Detroit, some of the radio guys just eat that stuff up. I've never understood why.

Actions and words
vs
fan speculation that Holland is tanking, despite spending to the max, despite saying he isn't tanking, and despite Blashill playing a 34 year old goalie over a 25 year old goalie and a 23 year old potential top 6 forward on line 4.

Frankly, the idea that Ken Holland and the Red Wings is in rebuild mode is crazy.

 

[kliq]

Ok.
But honestly, we couldn't strip this team everything if wanted to do.
Nobody is taking a lot of these contracts.

Hypothetically, since we're falling to the bottom anyway, why wouldn't we trade Abdelkader and Helm and Nielsen if we could?

Why wouldn't we move Kronwall and Ericsson for draft picks if anyone would take them?

We're going to suck either way.
Keeping Abdelkader, Helm and Nielsen might help us look more presentable some nights.
We might lose 2-1 instead of 4-2.

But who cares?
We're still losing.
And we're getting nothing out of those assets.

I'm not against trading alot of those contracts.