Crunching the Numbers: Why Re-Building is Harder than Ever

[WingedWheel1987]

You worry too much. His contract is very movable, especially after next season. It's hardly an anchor for the Red Wings right now. There will be a demand for him in a year or two. If not, they can always buy him out in two more years once his salary drops to $2.5 million.

Nielsen's cap hit is 5.25 million a year and he put up 41 points during his first year in Detroit and is currently on pace for 33 points this season. His contract doesn't really seem like it would be easy to move next year.

I can't think of a single reason to suggest that teams will be more interested in trading for him in a couple of years. It's not like this team is going to be any better next year.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

You worry too much. His contract is very movable, especially after next season. It's hardly an anchor for the Red Wings right now. There will be a demand for him in a year or two. If not, they can always buy him out in two more years once his salary drops to $2.5 million.

His base salary drops to $2.5 million but he gets $2.5 million in a signing bonus so his salary never really drops that much. His final year of the contract it goes down to $3 mill total salary. So in the 2022 season he'll be 36 years old with a cap hit of $5.25 million and an actual salary of $3 million.

Unless the signing bonuses somehow aren't relevant when traded? That seems unlikely though given how popular they are.

He also has a modified NTC. I'd call his contract movable, but not as much as you make it sound.

 

[Claypool]

His base salary drops to $2.5 million but he gets $2.5 million in a signing bonus so his salary never really drops that much. His final year of the contract it goes down to $3 mill total salary. So in the 2022 season he'll be 36 years old with a cap hit of $5.25 million and an actual salary of $3 million.

Unless the signing bonuses somehow aren't relevant when traded? That seems unlikely though given how popular they are.

He also has a modified NTC. I'd call his contract movable, but not as much as you make it sound.

Ah yes, the signing bonus. I believe those are paid in full each season on top of the buyout portion.

Either way, who cares? Let me know when any of these salaries you guys are complaining about impact the team from signing any of its promising young players.

 

[Ezekial]

Sorry if I offend someone, but you'd have to be pretty delusional to think Frans Nielsen is readily movable before year 5 of that contract.

 

[Pavels Dog]

It is hard having an honest conversation with people when they regularly attribute opinions to me that I don't share, and have made an effort to keep away from.

I am not suggesting the team needs to burn it all down.

And it's hard to have any kind of meaningful conversation when a choice of words not necessarily directed specifically at you causes you to abandon the actual topic of debate. It was clear we were both discussing opinions about the importance of landing top 3-5 picks that are prevalent within this fanbase as is the desire for us to get those picks ASAP (preferably years ago it often seems like). To me it seems like a copout for you to then take offense that I call a strategy of quickly and deliberately building a team for getting top 5 picks "burning it down". I mean call it what you want but if we wanted top 5 picks prior to last season.. that would have been... pretty damn close to burning it down.
But let me know what the exact wording of your desire for the Wings strategy is/was so a discussion about other matters can be had. I get called a Holland apologist, a blind loyalist, and a dozen other things that have nothing to with anything and I don't abandon the discussion because of it.

Boy has this narrative ever changed.

Prior to Matthews on this board it was, "see Toronto has been bad awhile and there's no end in sight". They were the team everyone liked to point a finger at.

Then they actually allow themselves to free-fall and get Matthews, and turn it around, and now it's because of Kadri, JVR, and Rielly?

I mean I agree it's a process, and even elite talents don't fix EVERYTHING... but if we never get a top 3 pick, we will never return to a contender. I'll bet a big sum of money on that, no problem. Lottery doesn't make it easy, but it probably will need to happen at some point, regardless of whatever else we do.

Come on Frk it, you're better than this. It's not an either/or situation. The point is they had players already from drafting high for nearly a decade. With their new management, they drafted 8th, 4th and 1st, which is great but 3 players don't make a succesful team.
We have players also, despite not drafting high. After the end of the playoff streak we drafted 9th and now we're on track for a top 5 pick. We're pretty much on the fast-track to the bottom. But success won't come from only Rasmussen and our '18 and '19 1sts, it will be a combination together with Larkin/Mantha/etc.
The sooner people start to see the process and stop being impatient because we haven't drafted our Matthews the sooner this board will get more bearable. It's likely we get a top 3 pick or two (or more). It just doesn't need to be the first step of a rebuild, it often is closer to the last step.

 

[Redder Winger]

Sorry if I offend someone, but you'd have to be pretty delusional to think Frans Nielsen is readily movable before year 5 of that contract.

And if he keeps deteriorating, he's going to have no value by then either.

 

[jkutswings]

And it's hard to have any kind of meaningful conversation when a choice of words not necessarily directed specifically at you causes you to abandon the actual topic of debate. It was clear we were both discussing opinions about the importance of landing top 3-5 picks that are prevalent within this fanbase as is the desire for us to get those picks ASAP (preferably years ago it often seems like). To me it seems like a copout for you to then take offense that I call a strategy of quickly and deliberately building a team for getting top 5 picks "burning it down". I mean call it what you want but if we wanted top 5 picks prior to last season.. that would have been... pretty damn close to burning it down.
But let me know what the exact wording of your desire for the Wings strategy is/was so a discussion about other matters can be had. I get called a Holland apologist, a blind loyalist, and a dozen other things that have nothing to with anything and I don't abandon the discussion because of it.


Come on Frk it, you're better than this. It's not an either/or situation. The point is they had players already from drafting high for nearly a decade. With their new management, they drafted 8th, 4th and 1st, which is great but 3 players don't make a succesful team.
We have players also, despite not drafting high. After the end of the playoff streak we drafted 9th and now we're on track for a top 5 pick. We're pretty much on the fast-track to the bottom. But success won't come from only Rasmussen and our '18 and '19 1sts, it will be a combination together with Larkin/Mantha/etc.
The sooner people start to see the process and stop being impatient because we haven't drafted our Matthews the sooner this board will get more bearable. It's likely we get a top 3 pick or two (or more). It just doesn't need to be the first step of a rebuild, it often is closer to the last step.

I'd agree with you...if I trusted this front office with the draft picks they have, and with the choices they still have to make. But I simply don't, and I want a house cleaning.

 

[Ezekial]

And if he keeps deteriorating, he's going to have no value by then either.

I don't think he's deteriorating so much as not being put into a situation to succeed. But, yes, if his numbers continue to suck his value will be very low if existent at all. Retention and low salary number could help with that, but his contract is pretty troublesome. I don't think it's an anchor, though.

 

[Redder Winger]

I don't think he's deteriorating so much as not being put into a situation to succeed. But, yes, if his numbers continue to suck his value will be very low if existent at all. Retention and low salary number could help with that, but his contract is pretty troublesome. I don't think it's an anchor, though.

He's definitely slower (speed wise).
His faceoffs are close to an all-time low.
He's on pace for about 33 points - which would be an all-time low for a full season.
He's a minus guy again.
He's going to 34 in April and still has 4 years left on his deal.

Doesn't scream trade value to me.

 

[Ezekial]

He's definitely slower (speed wise).
His faceoffs are close to an all-time low.
He's on pace for about 33 points - which would be an all-time low for a full season.
He's a minus guy again.
He's going to 34 in April and still has 4 years left on his deal.

Doesn't scream trade value to me.

Like I said, very low to non existent value.

He started the season absolutely awful at faceoffs, so for him to be where he is now means he's improved as the season has.
He's a minus player on a team with exactly 2 players that aren't negative (Ericcson +3, Helm 0) out of players that have played at least 15 games.
He's on pace for his all-time low point totals, which brings me to "so much as not being put in a situation to succeed"

Used in a matchup capacity going against better players with players who aren't exactly known for their finishing doesn't scream high point totals.

I'm aware of his age and term left on the deal I don't know why you're bringing that up since I just stated that you'd be delusional to think he'd be traded before year 5.
I never conceded he hasn't taken a step back physically(although I think you are overstating it), I just said that's a smaller factor on his output than his usage.

 

[Winger98]

Yeah, Nielsen's usage has kinda sucked. But unless we're willing to promote Athanasiou straight up to the top9, and maybe Frk as well, I don't really see the guns up front to try to run three scoring lines. It's probably the real motivator behind the 11-7 use. Outside of promoting helm from GR, and really Svech is the only guy we should have any expectations of from down there to become an a consistent offensive contributor in the NHL, it's just not there.

 

[Heaton]

Ah yes, the signing bonus. I believe those are paid in full each season on top of the buyout portion.

Either way, who cares? Let me know when any of these salaries you guys are complaining about impact the team from signing any of its promising young players.

Luckily for Kenny, the Wings barely have any promising young players so its easier to continue to sign terrible contracts to old players.

 

[Frk It]

And it's hard to have any kind of meaningful conversation when a choice of words not necessarily directed specifically at you causes you to abandon the actual topic of debate. It was clear we were both discussing opinions about the importance of landing top 3-5 picks that are prevalent within this fanbase as is the desire for us to get those picks ASAP (preferably years ago it often seems like). To me it seems like a copout for you to then take offense that I call a strategy of quickly and deliberately building a team for getting top 5 picks "burning it down". I mean call it what you want but if we wanted top 5 picks prior to last season.. that would have been... pretty damn close to burning it down.
But let me know what the exact wording of your desire for the Wings strategy is/was so a discussion about other matters can be had. I get called a Holland apologist, a blind loyalist, and a dozen other things that have nothing to with anything and I don't abandon the discussion because of it.


Come on Frk it, you're better than this. It's not an either/or situation. The point is they had players already from drafting high for nearly a decade. With their new management, they drafted 8th, 4th and 1st, which is great but 3 players don't make a succesful team.
We have players also, despite not drafting high. After the end of the playoff streak we drafted 9th and now we're on track for a top 5 pick. We're pretty much on the fast-track to the bottom. But success won't come from only Rasmussen and our '18 and '19 1sts, it will be a combination together with Larkin/Mantha/etc.
The sooner people start to see the process and stop being impatient because we haven't drafted our Matthews the sooner this board will get more bearable. It's likely we get a top 3 pick or two (or more). It just doesn't need to be the first step of a rebuild, it often is closer to the last step.

Look, I agree with you that a re-build takes time. I also agree with you that you have to hit on some non-high picks.

I’m just saying, without a top 3 pick (in the right draft) it’s all for naught. Every single team I can think of that successfully re-built recently did it. And it’s typically the big catalyst that makes teams have that huge 1 year improvement. Chicago went to a Cup within 2 years of Kane/Toews. Toronto went to the playoffs within 2 years of Matthews. Winnipeg went to the playoffs within 2 years of Laine. So forth, so forth, etc.

So the “fixation” or “obsession” isn’t out of nowhere. I mean everything on here is redundant as all hell, so I can understand being sick of it. Plus they just made it harder to obtain these picks. So I hear you on that. But I’m still going to say it’s a pre-requisite to this team returning to being a contender.

I’m not personally worried about it, because I like the guys we could get in the 4-8 range this year, and then I do think we have a real chance at a top 3 pick next year. I like Larkin, and some of these defensive prospects. I don’t think we are doomed or anything like that. It’s going to take time and luck. We’re just gonna need that top 3 pick, and we probably could use it sooner than later.

 

[Dotter]

Look, I agree with you that a re-build takes time. I also agree with you that you have to hit on some non-high picks.

I’m just saying, without a top 3 pick (in the right draft) it’s all for naught. Every single team I can think of that successfully re-built recently did it. And it’s typically the big catalyst that makes teams have that huge 1 year improvement. Chicago went to a Cup within 2 years of Kane/Toews. Toronto went to the playoffs within 2 years of Matthews. Winnipeg went to the playoffs within 2 years of Laine. So forth, so forth, etc.

So the “fixation” or “obsession” isn’t out of nowhere. I mean everything on here is redundant as all hell, so I can understand being sick of it. Plus they just made it harder to obtain these picks. So I hear you on that. But I’m still going to say it’s a pre-requisite to this team returning to being a contender.

I’m not personally worried about it, because I like the guys we could get in the 4-8 range this year, and then I do think we have a real chance at a top 3 pick next year. I like Larkin, and some of these defensive prospects. I don’t think we are doomed or anything like that. It’s going to take time and luck. We’re just gonna need that top 3 pick, and we probably could use it sooner than later.

I would love a top 3 pick. They don't seem easy to get. Wings should fall in the standings a bit more after trading Green.

 

[Redder Winger]

I would love a top 3 pick. They don't seem easy to get. Wings should fall in the standings a bit more after trading Green.

The sooner the better.
No harm in eating salary, either.

 

[Red Stanley]

We could also wait and see what happens at the trade deadline before painting ourselves into an ideological corner with all these talking points.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I’m just saying, without a top 3 pick (in the right draft) it’s all for naught. Every single team I can think of that successfully re-built recently did it. And it’s typically the big catalyst that makes teams have that huge 1 year improvement. Chicago went to a Cup within 2 years of Kane/Toews. Toronto went to the playoffs within 2 years of Matthews. Winnipeg went to the playoffs within 2 years of Laine. So forth, so forth, etc.

I feel like we agree partially. I just disagree that top 3 picks needs to be step 1 of a rebuild. Chicago drafted Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson before Kane/Toews. Toronto got Kadri/Rielly/Nylander/Marner. Winnipeg Scheifele/Connor/Trouba/etc. Pittsburgh is one of few examples where, other than hitting on Letang, it was a run of top 2 picks that made them succesful.

But you see it in teams that either burned down too much to get top 3 picks or have been too bad at drafting outside the early 1st, they have a hard time getting any traction. Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida, Arizona, Colorado etc.

We are reaching the bottom fairly quickly and organically. On the way there we are collecting talent. Larkin, Mantha, Cholowski, Hronek, Saarijarvi, Rasmussen, Lindstrom, etc. When we get those top 3 picks, they'll have guys to play with and we can get that huge 1 year improvement, as opposed to landing those top 3 picks as step 1 of a rebuild and having them burn their ELC/RFA years before you build depth around them. And no matter what anyone says, you can't just go out in FA and land depth like Seabrook/Hjalmarsson/Saad/Hossa/Crawford in any given offseason. Every piece matters.

Our rebuild won't be a 1:1 replica of anyone else. No one else in the cap era has come down from a long playoff streak and entered a rebuild. Few or no "true", well-managed rebuilds have been attempted in the cap era. It's either been the totally mismanaged teams with long streak outside the playoffs, or teams like Boston/SJ/Montreal/NYR that have been retooling around some core players and been up-and-down.

 

[jkutswings]

I feel like we agree partially. I just disagree that top 3 picks needs to be step 1 of a rebuild. Chicago drafted Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson before Kane/Toews. Toronto got Kadri/Rielly/Nylander/Marner. Winnipeg Scheifele/Connor/Trouba/etc. Pittsburgh is one of few examples where, other than hitting on Letang, it was a run of top 2 picks that made them succesful.

But you see it in teams that either burned down too much to get top 3 picks or have been too bad at drafting outside the early 1st, they have a hard time getting any traction. Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida, Arizona, Colorado etc.

We are reaching the bottom fairly quickly and organically. On the way there we are collecting talent. Larkin, Mantha, Cholowski, Hronek, Saarijarvi, Rasmussen, Lindstrom, etc. When we get those top 3 picks, they'll have guys to play with and we can get that huge 1 year improvement, as opposed to landing those top 3 picks as step 1 of a rebuild and having them burn their ELC/RFA years before you build depth around them. And no matter what anyone says, you can't just go out in FA and land depth like Seabrook/Hjalmarsson/Saad/Hossa/Crawford in any given offseason. Every piece matters.

Our rebuild won't be a 1:1 replica of anyone else. No one else in the cap era has come down from a long playoff streak and entered a rebuild. Few or no "true", well-managed rebuilds have been attempted in the cap era. It's either been the totally mismanaged teams with long streak outside the playoffs, or teams like Boston/SJ/Montreal/NYR that have been retooling around some core players and been up-and-down.

All very fair and reasoned points. But I've yet to see anything that convinces me that this regime can still draft top players (first line forwards or top pair defensemen on a contending team).

As draft stock improves, they should have better and better odds of finding some, but while Larkin comes close, I don't see even one anywhere in the system yet, and it's not like other teams NEVER find those guys elsewhere.

So yes, Rome wasn't built in a day, and they're good at finding the secondary and depth guys that are also important. But until they show that they can land a major cog or two as well, my skepticism will continue to fester.

 

[TatarTangle]

Finding true top line or pairing talent outside of the top 10 is astronomically low, head on over to hockey reference and check out past drafts (hockey-reference.com/draft), it is not confined to the Red Wings.

St. Louis is one of few, if not only, case where a team struck gold with Schwartz (14) and Tarasenko (16) back in 2010. What a draft year for them, sheesh.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Finding true top line or pairing talent outside of the top 10 is astronomically low, head on over to hockey reference and check out past drafts (hockey-reference.com/draft), it is not confined to the Red Wings.

St. Louis is one of few, if not only, case where a team struck gold with Schwartz (14) and Tarasenko (16) back in 2010. What a draft year for them, sheesh.

The Blues just got the steal of last years draft in Robert Thomas. Not to mention Tage Thompson the year before...

Blues should be looking good for years to come.

 

[Frk It]

The Blues just got the steal of last years draft in Robert Thomas. Not to mention Tage Thompson the year before...

Blues should be looking good for years to come.

Kyrou, Kostin, Thomas, Thompson, Dunn... then Parayko, Tarasenko, Schwartz... they have been killing it.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Kyrou, Kostin, Thomas, Thompson, Dunn... then Parayko, Tarasenko, Schwartz... they have been killing it.

The blues appear to be scouting for more than just character or size

 

[Redder Winger]

The Blues just got the steal of last years draft in Robert Thomas. Not to mention Tage Thompson the year before...

Blues should be looking good for years to come.

Every time I watched a Robert Thomas video I saw a lot of Datsyuk in his game. Maybe the dekes weren't quite so jaw-dropping.
But the pickpockets, the amazing, cross-ice backhand passes, the holding on for the extra 2-3-4 seconds to outwait everyone.... kid has special potential.

 

[kliq]

Finding true top line or pairing talent outside of the top 10 is astronomically low, head on over to hockey reference and check out past drafts (hockey-reference.com/draft), it is not confined to the Red Wings.

St. Louis is one of few, if not only, case where a team struck gold with Schwartz (14) and Tarasenko (16) back in 2010. What a draft year for them, sheesh.

Maybe on forward, not on D. Most of the top D-men are actually taken out of the top 10.

A year or two ago, I took a look at the top 20 D-men (based on points) and took a look at where they were drafted. As you can see, most of them were not taken in the top 10.

1/20 drafted in top 5
2/20 drafted between 6-10
3/20 drafted between 11-15
1/20 drafted between 16-30
13/20 drafted out of the first round/not drafted

1) Erik Karlsson -15th overall
2) Brent Burns – 20th overall
3) Kris Letang – 62nd overall
4) John Klingberg – 131st overall
5) Roman Josi – 38th overall
6) P.K. Subban 43rd overall
7) Oliver Ekman-Larsson – 6th overall
8) Mark Giordano – undrafted
9) Tyson Barrie – 64th overall
10) Ryan Suter – 7th overall
11) Shea Weber – 49th overall
12) Drew Doughty 2nd overall
13) Dustin Byfuglien - 245th overall
14) Brent Seabrook – 14th overall
15) Duncan Keith – 54th overall
16) T.J. Brodie – 114th overall
17) Andrei Markov – 162nd overall
18) Keith Yandle – 105th overall
19) Shayne Gostisbehere – 78th overall
20) Kevin Shattenkirk – 14th overall

 

[TatarTangle]

Thanks for digging even deeper. Klingberg at 131 and Buff at 245 is insane.