Common Sense Line-up for 2014-2015

[Crymson]

Lashoff better be on GRG if we're taking about common sense lineups.. He's just not good.

Yes, but his presence allows Holland to keep Backman, Sproul, Ouellet, and Marchenko in the minors until the very last day of their minor-league eligibility, and that's a very important factor to him; it's presumably the reason why Kindl is still around also. And so the team will continue to be less than it could be, simply because Holland is resolutely unwilling to budge from his methods, and in the meantime our stars will each get a year older.

Reactionary ineptitude at work. I don't see what's so hard about going on a case-by-case basis, but apparently Holland has some delusion of being a genius.

 

[Henkka]

Just another annoying attempt to bring reasoning to Abdelkader belonging in the top 6.

Funny how people act like Datsyuk and/or Zetterberg haven't been playing the shutdown role for 8+ years now.

Who was Datsyuk and Zetterberg's primary winger during their best defensive season together? Holmstrom. Not a single person would call Holmstrom strong defensively. In fact, even calling Homer "average defensively" would be a stretch to say the least.

But what Holmstrom brought and maintained was puck possession. Datsyuk and Zetterberg had their highest Corsi season(s) with Holmstrom.

As I've pointed out earlier in the thread, the presence of Abdelkader along skill players weakens possession and goals for/goals against ratio.

Whether it was Datsyuk and Zetterberg, Zetterberg and Nyquist, Weiss and Franzen, or Sheahan and Tatar, all of those combos performed better without Abdelkader on their line, both from a Corsi/possession standpoint and from a goals for/goals against standpoint.

A huge part of Datsyuk and Zetterberg's defensive game is flat out keeping the puck away from opposing top lines. Possession. Abdelkader has had a negative impact on possession for top 6/scoring lines.

And why are we now pretending like Abdelkader is some defensive stud? He's not. Just because you'll hit and go to the corners doesn't mean you're a defensive presence. When Datsyuk and Zetterberg were both out last season, Glendening-Miller were tasked with playing the tougher minutes. And for a guy who hardly plays on the PP, why doesn't Abdelkader play big PK minutes?

Abdelkader had second best relative Total Corsi and Fenwick of team forwards at last season after Zetterberg, when taking quality of competition in account. he has worse Corsi because played most against better players in of the league. Was shuffled from line to line and swas the best defensive forward there when Zeta was injured.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...eamid=11&type=corsi&sort=HARTQOC&sortdir=DESC

There you go.

Abdelakder is also on the TOP2 if you count last 2 seasons, and he is on the TOP3, if you count last 3 seasons.

 

[TNigs]

Abdelkader had second best relative Total Corsi and Fenwick of team forwards at last season after Zetterberg, when taking quality of competition in account. he has worse Corsi because played most against better players in of the league. Was shuffled from line to line and swas the best defensive forward there when Zeta was injured.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...eamid=11&type=corsi&sort=HARTQOC&sortdir=DESC

There you go.

Abdelakder is also on the TOP2 if you count last 2 seasons, and he is on the TOP3, if you count last 3 seasons.

I don't know what any of those numbers mean. But if you're telling me Bert is better defensively then Datsyuk these stats mean nothing more than the WAR stat in baseball. Might as well just throw those stats out the window.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Just fishing for any stat now to try to make a point. Abdelkader is not an effective top 6 forward, period. That's common sense.

MOD would probably fish for stats to prove that Cleary is effective in the top 6 the past two and a half years as well.

I've said it twice already and I'll post it again: most lines, whether it be with Datsyuk-Zetterberg, Zetterberg-Nyquist, Weiss-Alfredsson, or Sheahan-Tatar, all of those lines were LESS effective with Abdelkader. They were worse from a possession standpoint and they were worse from a goals for/goals against ratio. They were all worse from both a statistical and eyeball test. Anyone except you would agree with that.

But please keep telling us how great Abby is. Or keep defending the signing of Cleary.

 

[Henkka]

Just fishing for any stat now to try to make a point. Abdelkader is not an effective top 6 forward, period. That's common sense.

MOD would probably fish for stats to prove that Cleary is effective in the top 6 the past two and a half years as well.

I've said it twice already and I'll post it again: most lines, whether it be with Datsyuk-Zetterberg, Zetterberg-Nyquist, Weiss-Alfredsson, or Sheahan-Tatar, all of those lines were LESS effective with Abdelkader.

I'm not fishing anyting. I always use those total values, relative or not and only look offense only if thinking power-play, like is reasonable.

This really interesting, how Abelkader can be so great in relative values if he drags every teammate down. If same happens with 3-year data, it's not a statistical fluke anymore.

 

[Henkka]

I don't know what any of those numbers mean. But if you're telling me Bert is better defensively then Datsyuk these stats mean nothing more than the WAR stat in baseball. Might as well just throw those stats out the window.

Here's an expalanation:

Calculate first iteration of HARO and HARD

The first iteration of HARO and HARD are simple. I first calculate an estimated GF20 and an estimated GA20 based on the players teammates and opposition.

ExpGF20 = (TMGF20 + OppGA20)/2
ExpGA20 = (TMGA20 + OppGF20)/2

Then I calculate HARO and HARD as a percentage improvement:

HARO(1st iteration) = 100*(GF20-ExpGF20) / ExpGF20
HARD(1st iteration) = 100*(ExpGA20 – GA20) / ExpGA20

So, a HARO of 20 would mean that when the player is on the goal rate of his team is 20% higher than one would expect based on how his teammates and opponents performed during time when the player is not on the ice with/against them. Similarly, a HARD of 20 would mean the goals against rate of his team is 20% better (lower) than expected.

(Note: The OppGA20 that gets used is from the complimentary situation. For 5v5 this means the opposition situation is also 5v5 but when calculating a rating for 5v5 leading the opposition situation is 5v5 trailing so OppGF20 would be OppGF20 calculated from 5v5 trailing data).

Now for a second iteration

The first iteration used GF20 and GA20 stats which is a good start but after the first iteration we have teammate and opponent corrected evaluations of every player which means we have better data about the quality of teammates and opponents the player has. This is where things get a little more complicated because I need to calculate a QoT and QoC metric based on the first iteration HARO and HARD values and then I need to convert that into a GF20 and GA20 equivalent number so I can compare the players GF20 and GA20 to.

To do this I calculate a TMHARO rating which is a TWA_TOI weighted average of first iteration HARO. TMHARD and OppHARO and OppHARD are calculated in a similar manner. TMHARD, OppHARO and OppHARD are similarly calculated. Now I need to convert these to GF20 and GA20 based stats so I do that by multiplying by league average GF20 (LAGF20) and league average GA20 (LAGA20) and from here I can calculated expected GF20 and expected GA20.

ExpGF20(2nd iteration) = (TMHARO*LAGF20 + OppHARD*LAGA20)/2
ExpGA20(2nd iteration) = (TMHARD*LAGA20 + OppHARD*LAGF20)/2

From there we can get a second iteration of HARO and HARD.

HARO(2nd iteration) = 100*(GF20-ExpGF20) / ExpGF20
HARD(2nd iteration) = 100*(ExpGA20 – GA20) / ExpGA20

Now we iterate again and again…

Now we repeat the above step over and over again using the previous iterations HARO and HARD values at every step.

Now calculate HART

Once we have done enough iterations we can calculate HART from the final iterations HARO and HARD values.

HART = (HARO + HARD) /2

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/04/11/how-are-hockeyanalysis-com-ratings-haro-hard-hart-calculated/

 

[Crymson]

Just fishing for any stat now to try to make a point. Abdelkader is not an effective top 6 forward, period. That's common sense.

He's an effective top-six stopgap, but that's not the optimal place for him. That said, the line of he, Nyquist, and Zetterberg did very well, and I've never seen any evidence that he can drag down a line on his own. He's not the best fit, but he performs adequately.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

He's an effective top-six stopgap, but that's not the optimal place for him. That said, the line of he, Nyquist, and Zetterberg did very well, and I've never seen any evidence that he can drag down a line on his own. He's not the best fit, but he performs adequately.

So the fact that Datsyuk-Zetterberg, Zetterberg-Nyquist, Weiss-Aflredsson, and Sheahan-Tatar all had less success with him isn't evidence enough?

I'd be glad if he continues to grow as a player and becomes a guy you want in the top 6. But we've seen nothing to suggest that he is. A guy who can't play with his head up when the puck is on his stick is limited. Abdelkader almost always plays with his head down. That's why lines weaken from a possession standpoint with him on it and that's exactly why he was soooo awful from a zone entry standpoint.

 

[Mule93]

Hey guys.

Was thinking about the lineup for a while since the team is pretty much the same. Here is what I want, what do you guys think?

(with Alfie)

Going LW,C,RW
1 - Nyquist, Zetterberg, Franzen
2 - Cleary, Dats, Alfie
3 - Tats, Helm, Abdelkader
4 - Sheahan/Glendenning, Weiss (unfortunately :<), Miller
D -
1 - Kron, Eric
2 - Quinc, Dekey
3 - Smith, Kindl

(without Alfie - probably won't come back because we have no cap space now :<)

1- Nyquist - Z - Franzen (this line was OWNING before Z got injured, really want this Team Sweden line. Even Franzen was picking his game up on this line, I think he really likes Nyquist.)

2 - Abs, Dats, Cleary (abs takes bodies, cleary takes net, Dats scores. Dats has a good understanding with abs and cleary, should be able to work his magic even easier V other 2nd lines)

3 - Tats, Helm, Glendening ( Fastest line in the NHL? - Seems like a slam dunk for a 3rd line. Fast, Grindy, Gritty and some skill there with Tats. Would be VERY exciting)

4 - Weiss, Sheahan, Miller ( I really would prefer this team without Weiss... Our new young C's are better and he is now a 5mil drain on cap - gotta use him though because then it would be a complete waste of money - I give Sheahan C because he needs some more exp to get to his potential)

Same D lines.

There is my idea of what the team should be. =) I really like it all, except Weiss... lol

 

[silkyjohnson50]

2 - Abs, Dats, Cleary (abs takes bodies, cleary takes net, Dats scores. Dats has a good understanding with abs and cleary, should be able to work

Lol good one.

 

[Mule93]

Lol good one.

I guess... But they gotta go somewhere and putting them with Dats should lift their game.

I dunno why people are so down on Abs and Cleary Both are very competent players. Watch the '10-'11 highlight were Dats snipes through Clearys legs with 2 min left v Anaheim. He is a very smart role player. Then watch Abs' Hatty and his check compilation.

MOD

 

[Roy S]

Over the last 2 seasons, Abdelkader was Pavel's most common forward linemate at 5 on 5. Datsyuk played 589:04 with him and 754:09 apart from him.

Their GF% together was 61.9% and their CF% together was 56.7%. When Datsyuk was apart from Abdelkader, Datsyuk's GF% was 53.1% and his CF% was 56.8%.

There really isn't much difference, other than that they actually outscored the opposition by much more when both Datsyuk and Abdelkader played together. As long as there is another highly skilled player on the line, I don't think its that big of a deal if they play together assuming it makes the 2nd and 3rd lines stronger and, thus, improves the overall team's puck possession.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=85&withagainst=true&season=2012-14&sit=5v5

 

[Tomas W]

I guess... But they gotta go somewhere and putting them with Dats should lift their game.

I dunno why people are so down on Abs and Cleary Both are very competent players. Watch the '10-'11 highlight were Dats snipes through Clearys legs with 2 min left v Anaheim. He is a very smart role player. Then watch Abs' Hatty and his check compilation.

MOD

Times change my friend. Old players don't always stay the same. I guess you've been doing other things than watching hockey the last few seasons? Welcome back to the sport then!

 

[Henkka]

So the fact that Datsyuk-Zetterberg, Zetterberg-Nyquist, Weiss-Aflredsson, and Sheahan-Tatar all had less success with him isn't evidence enough?

I'd be glad if he continues to grow as a player and becomes a guy you want in the top 6. But we've seen nothing to suggest that he is. A guy who can't play with his head up when the puck is on his stick is limited. Abdelkader almost always plays with his head down. That's why lines weaken from a possession standpoint with him on it and that's exactly why he was soooo awful from a zone entry standpoint.

I could almost believe, that Babcock is using advanced stats and tries to put Abdelkader there because of those qualcomp numbers. "Okay let's put him there, those numbers can't be wrong." And when things aren't going enough well with the eye-test, he'll start mixing lines again. Or he could be mixing just because of injuries.

But I still can't understand how Abdelkader can be so great on average (wit ADV stats), if he drags "everybody" down with different stats. Somehow those others have to have easier matchups and Abdelkader never has them or something.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Over the last 2 seasons, Abdelkader was Pavel's most common forward linemate at 5 on 5. Datsyuk played 589:04 with him and 754:09 apart from him.

Their GF% together was 61.9% and their CF% together was 56.7%. When Datsyuk was apart from Abdelkader, Datsyuk's GF% was 53.1% and his CF% was 56.8%.

There really isn't much difference, other than that they actually outscored the opposition by much more when both Datsyuk and Abdelkader played together. As long as there is another highly skilled player on the line, I don't think its that big of a deal if they play together assuming it makes the 2nd and 3rd lines stronger and, thus, improves the overall team's puck possession.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=85&withagainst=true&season=2012-14&sit=5v5

Just looking at those numbers straight up without context is extremely misleading. There's so many other factors that play into them that I'm having trouble knowing even where to start to be honest. The 3rd linemate, when the combos were together, injuries, playing injured, and competition are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the variables that impact those hard numbers.

Look no further than Bertuzzi. Datsyuk had a significantly worse goals for percentage and Corsi with Bertuzzi than he did with Abdelkader last season. So from that chart one could easily suggest it to be a no brainer that Abdelkader would be a better linemate than Bertuzzi. And yet when Bertuzzi replaced Abdelkader on a line with Datsyuk and Zetterberg, the lines goals for percentage increased. How's that happen? That's party because (and this is just using one single factor) it doesn't take into account the fact that Bertuzzi played huge minutes with Datsyuk during his awful stretch after the injury big hit and before he decided to sit out.

I think the fact that Datsyuk's Corsi was actually higher with Cleary last season and almost identical in the 2 years combined pretty much sums it up.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Abdelkader had second best relative Total Corsi and Fenwick of team forwards at last season after Zetterberg, when taking quality of competition in account. he has worse Corsi because played most against better players in of the league. Was shuffled from line to line and swas the best defensive forward there when Zeta was injured.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...eamid=11&type=corsi&sort=HARTQOC&sortdir=DESC

There you go.

Abdelakder is also on the TOP2 if you count last 2 seasons, and he is on the TOP3, if you count last 3 seasons.

And Datsyuk was the worst defensive forward on the team last season, right?

There you go.

 

[Henkka]

And Datsyuk was the worst defensive forward on the team last season, right?

There you go.

Too small sample. Use 3-year samples and you see Datsyuk at Top3. Last season he was injured, and imo, wasn't on his normal level defensively because some of his speed was missing. He wasn't flying on his own end in opposite team attack like he usually is.

But bigger thing in those stats is, that Pavel was injured and out from the roster on time when our team played a long stretch against strong possession teams (especially january).

So strong possession teams raised other teammates values who played against them and Datsyuk's relative values dropped on "easier" level, because he wasn't facing those top teams. I remember this very clearly, because at Christmas time there was nothing "wrong" in Datsyuk's relative values compared to others. Later part of the season changed that, when he was sitting out.

This kind of depleted seasons can be bad comparables with guys who had short seasons. Abdelkader had 70 games, and that in our nowadays team represents one of the fullest and least fluke seasons and he is still hanging high there. Or if we use 3-year data, he is high there, relatively on his teammates. Just like Datsyuk and Zetterberg are.

 

[ap3x]

Times change my friend. Old players don't always stay the same. I guess you've been doing other things than watching hockey the last few seasons? Welcome back to the sport then!

Right. He isn't that player anymore, simple as that. We can't afford to sign guys just 'cause they used to play good for us. I'm grateful for what he did for the team in the past, but honestly, who around here is optimistic that Cleary is capable of doing that again? And that's what it's all about, guys like him have to deliever right now. Where else is the sense in resigning him?

 

[InjuredChoker]

nice analysis of datsyuk's goal against the leafs last season.

 

[silkyjohnson50]

Too small sample. Use 3-year samples and you see Datsyuk at Top3. Last season he was injured, and imo, wasn't on his normal level defensively because some of his speed was missing. He wasn't flying on his own end in opposite team attack like he usually is.

But bigger thing in those stats is, that Pavel was injured and out from the roster on time when our team played a long stretch against strong possession teams (especially january).

So strong possession teams raised other teammates values who played against them and Datsyuk's relative values dropped on "easier" level, because he wasn't facing those top teams. I remember this very clearly, because at Christmas time there was nothing "wrong" in Datsyuk's relative values compared to others. Later part of the season changed that, when he was sitting out.

This kind of depleted seasons can be bad comparables with guys who had short seasons. Abdelkader had 70 games, and that in our nowadays team represents one of the fullest and least fluke seasons and he is still hanging high there. Or if we use 3-year data, he is high there, relatively on his teammates. Just like Datsyuk and Zetterberg are.

So you're trying to sell us on an advanced stat that - using your 3 year data - suggests that Dan Cleary has been nearly identical to Datsyuk since 11-12? And not only this, but Bertuzzi, Nyquist, Franzen, Abdelkader, Tootoo, and Zetterberg have all been better than Datsyuk as well?

And during the 12-13 season Brunner was the best on the team, better than Datsyuk and Zetterberg?

Yeah, I put zero stock into what you're trying to sell. There you go.

 

[ashenhigh]

I guess... But they gotta go somewhere and putting them with Dats should lift their game.

I dunno why people are so down on Abs and Cleary Both are very competent players. Watch the '10-'11 highlight were Dats snipes through Clearys legs with 2 min left v Anaheim. He is a very smart role player. Then watch Abs' Hatty and his check compilation.

MOD

Do you know that half of Abs' goals that year were the result of Datsyuk literally banking the puck off his lifeless carcass in front of the net?

 

[Chance on Chance]

cap geek now shows waiver eligibility

http://www.capgeek.com/redwings/

 

[Henkka]

cap geek now shows waiver eligibility

http://www.capgeek.com/redwings/

Lots of people to be waived...

Miele
Porter
Ferraro
Callahan
McCollum
Aubry
Nestrasil

...but every organization kind of has the same situation.

 

[odin1981]

Lots of people to be waived...

Miele
Porter
Ferraro
Callahan
McCollum
Aubry
Nestrasil

...but every organization kind of has the same situation.

Until expansion teams hit I have a feeling waiver wire moves will be fairly no risk.

 

[Mijatovic]

None of those will be snatched. Stacking the deck for another AHL Championship?