Value of: Canucks Fire Sale

[clunk]

Lol sure he did.

Just out of curiousity, what kind of contract do you expect Gudbranson to sign after this season?

How has McCann looked? Not being a sarcastic smartass cause he doesn't have any points. Genuinely wondering. For the record, I thought it was a terrible trade for us and a steal for you.

 

[Ryuji Yamazaki]

How has McCann looked? Not being a sarcastic smartass cause he doesn't have any points. Genuinely wondering. For the record, I thought it was a terrible trade for us and a steal for you.

He doesn't belong in the NHL right now imo. You can tell he has skill and skates well but doesn't have any confidence with the puck. It dies when it touches his stick.

I'm not sure what the Panthers plans are for him. Hopefully we can have Hawrlyuk replace him when he heals from his broken hand.

 

[Hansen]

He doesn't belong in the NHL right now imo. You can tell he has skill and skates well but doesn't have any confidence with the puck. It dies when it touches his stick.

I'm not sure what the Panthers plans are for him. Hopefully we can have Hawrlyuk replace him when he heals from his broken hand.

Yeah sounds about right. Willie and Jimbo ****ed both him and Jake up pretty good last year.

 

[Addison Rae]

I do know what development is and he has progressed well, you act like he looks like a sure fire top liner, he still looks exactly like a guy with a ceiling of a 2nd liner and the floor of a bottom sixer, which is what we drafted.

Also who is the 4th player that had more ice time than Gudbranson? Over the entire regular season, I can only find Ekblad, Campbell, and Kulikov as guys that had more ice time than Guds over the entire season, who is the 4th player?

Dear lord just because I suggest a draft pick is developing well you interpret me as saying he has top line potential? Projecting what a 20 year old is going to be is a flawed way of gauging value, McCann was a first round pick 2 years ago and has developed very well since being drafted, his value is around a mid first round pick right now. My beef isn't with acquiring Gudbranson, it's with the cost of acquisition trading essentially 2 first round picks for a player whose been in the league for 5 years and is yet to establish himself as a top 4 dman is an overpayment. Along with the fact Vancouver should have targeted an offensive minded RHD who can help run their power play. Vancouver already has one of the best matchup RHD's in the league, they had a much bigger need for a RHD.

Willie Mitchell played more even strength minutes per game than Gubdranson last year ffs, yes Willie ****ing Mitchell. I've maintained this since we traded from Gudbranson he's a 4/5 dman right now with top 4 upside, calling him a top 4 dman as of right now is completely and utterly wrong.

 

[ginner classic]

Dear lord just because I suggest a draft pick is developing well you interpret me as saying he has top line potential? Projecting what a 20 year old is going to be is a flawed way of gauging value, McCann was a first round pick 2 years ago and has developed very well since being drafted, his value is around a mid first round pick right now. My beef isn't with acquiring Gudbranson, it's with the cost of acquisition trading essentially 2 first round picks for a player whose been in the league for 5 years and is yet to establish himself as a top 4 dman is an overpayment. Along with the fact Vancouver should have targeted an offensive minded RHD who can help run their power play. Vancouver already has one of the best matchup RHD's in the league, they had a much bigger need for a RHD.

Willie Mitchell played more even strength minutes per game than Gubdranson last year ffs, yes Willie ****ing Mitchell. I've maintained this since we traded from Gudbranson he's a 4/5 dman right now with top 4 upside, calling him a top 4 dman as of right now is completely and utterly wrong.

He is a top 4 d man on Vancouver.

 

[TMLife*]

Gudbranson looks like a top 4 dman to me... but I only watch the hockey on the screen thingy

 

[Addison Rae]

6 game sample size, dear god. I clearly said objectively show how he's a top 4 dman over a large sample size. If you can't do that you're not objecting to what I'm saying.

 

[clunk]

He doesn't belong in the NHL right now imo. You can tell he has skill and skates well but doesn't have any confidence with the puck. It dies when it touches his stick.

I'm not sure what the Panthers plans are for him. Hopefully we can have Hawrlyuk replace him when he heals from his broken hand.

Thank you. That's too bad he doesn't have much confidence, but he IS young and it'll take him time to find it, imo, but he will. Has a boatload of potential that the Panthers can let stew a bit in the AHL.

I honestly think you won even if he wasn't included and it was just picks for Gudbranson... But that's my opinion.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Thank you. That's too bad he doesn't have much confidence, but he IS young and it'll take him time to find it, imo, but he will. Has a boatload of potential that the Panthers can let stew a bit in the AHL.

I honestly think you won even if he wasn't included and it was just picks for Gudbranson... But that's my opinion.

LOL so you're saying 33rd overall pick and a 4th > Gudbranson and a 5th?

That's basically 33rd for Gudbranson. I hate Benning too but this is just being blinded by that hate. Just because all he got for Garrison (who had a NTC and picked where he got to go which lowers his value) was a 2nd, does not mean 2nd pairing d-men are only worth 2nd round picks max.


Adam Larsson who is 11 months younger, 1 less season of experience, is a comparable player to Guds. Of course Larsson is better, but not by a huge amount. He cost Taylor Hall. Yet a 2nd and swapping a 4th for 5th is overpayment for Gudbranson LOL

 

[clunk]

LOL so you're saying 33rd overall pick and a 4th > Gudbranson and a 5th?

That's basically 33rd for Gudbranson. I hate Benning too but this is just being blinded by that hate. Just because all he got for Garrison (who had a NTC and picked where he got to go which lowers his value) was a 2nd, does not mean 2nd pairing d-men are only worth 2nd round picks max.


Adam Larsson who is 11 months younger, 1 less season of experience, is a comparable player to Guds. Of course Larsson is better, but not by a huge amount. He cost Taylor Hall. Yet a 2nd and swapping a 4th for 5th is overpayment for Gudbranson LOL

Yes.

 

[Canuck Luck]

6 game sample size, dear god. I clearly said objectively show how he's a top 4 dman over a large sample size. If you can't do that you're not objecting to what I'm saying.

He has averaged over 18 min per game his last 3 years in Florida. In the playoffs last year he averaged over 26 min a game. Clearly the coaches in Florida trust him and saw him as a top 4 D.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Yes.

Why do you believe this? What do you think is fair value for Gudbranson? Besides Garrison can you name a d-man in the last few years that has been traded for equal value or close to it (less or more) that is better than Gudbranson? The value being a 2nd and a 4th for the d-man and a 5th since you're talking about it being a bad trade even without McCann.

Because looking at past examples I see d-men much worse than Gudbranson return the same value or close (3rd round pick) which would be closer to what you think he is worth. So if the market shows the Canucks would have gotten a steal of a deal had it been 33rd overall and a 4th for Guds and a 5th, I'd like to know the logic behind thinking that is a rip off for the Canucks

I'm not even limiting it to RHD, which always costs a premium because of how rare good RHD are.

 

[Addison Rae]

He has averaged over 18 min per game his last 3 years in Florida. In the playoffs last year he averaged over 26 min a game. Clearly the coaches in Florida trust him and saw him as a top 4 D.

18 minutes a game is absolutely not top 4 minutes, this argument suggests that Luca Sbisa is a top 4 guy.

As for the 6 game sample size I've already answered this, these numbers are not representative of anything as a number of those games went to multiple overtimes causing an inflation in TOI.

 

[feffan]

I would imagine being in the Pacific with the big heavy teams in California contributed to the decision to draft Jake. Those teams not only have size, but their top players have size.

Carter, kopitar, Perry, getzlaf, etc. Have it.

I would expect that Nylander would have some tough nights if he were a Canuck. That said, I hate how the team has managed both Jake and Jared last season.

Neither was ready for the nhl, yet both were kept. McCann, despite scoring goals in the preseason would not hold up physically in the division. Jake, needs work on his hockey sense. He is a support player. He needs a talented center.

Either send Jake down to the AHL to get big minutes in an offensive role or do what the ducks did with Ritchie and stick him with so.e skill and not just the 4th line. Attach him to either Bo or Sutter for a stretch of games.

Canucks have Boeser as the future too rw. They need to develop Jake into a solid 20-20 guy. Don't see his hockey iq being able to hit 30 goals consistently, but he needs to build his confidence one way or another.

Same with tryamkin. Either start to play him or let him go back to he khl. No point to keep him in the press box. He won't go to the AHL, which is his right given the clause in his contract.

Thanks for the input and great post!

You are probably right that the Canucks where gunning for strength when they picked Virtanen. They have since the Neely-trade also as not only team but a city kind of been dreaming of finding another local power forward because of the "one that got away". So the pick at the time is understandable from many different set of views. But as I´m one of those that shrugges at the teams that still kind of think like most 90´s teams that "you can´t teach seize...", I guess I´m a little bit to hard on the pick of Virtanen. As I said, most experts had Virtanen ahead of Nylander at the time. I didn´t agree than, and I don´t agree now. And they already have a few with size coming up the lines, so Nylander (who ain´t that small) would have been an perfect match with Horvat, if one want to keep him on wing.

Agree that the real problem here probably is development. As you said, Canucks rushed both last season. They would have been better off getting some veteran UFA last year to fill out the line up and letting both develop in the AHL.

Completley forgott about Boeser! Great potential there. If he develops as he should, and Virtanen becomes to an low 2nd-liner/great 3rd liner the Canucks made great with their picks.

Tryamkin is an intriging prospect. And like most giants he gets folks to talk about Chara. Get him in the lineup, even if in the 6-7th-role, and be patienced. Chara himself was an 9TP player when he was 1-2 years older than Tryamkin. It took Hedman 4 years until he got it completley. Big D:s need patience, but they also need playing time.

 

[Canuck Luck]

18 minutes a game is absolutely not top 4 minutes, this argument suggests that Luca Sbisa is a top 4 guy.

As for the 6 game sample size I've already answered this, these numbers are not representative of anything as a number of those games went to multiple overtimes causing an inflation in TOI.

First you completely ignore that he averaged top pairing ice time in the only time the Panthers made the playoffs in his career. Is it because if he wasn't considered a top 4 D-man by Florida, he wouldn't have gotten that ice time and thus it doesn't help your narrative?

How is 18 minutes a night not top 4 minutes? I guess that means Chris Tanev isn't the top pairing d-man us Canucks fans think since he averaged 21 minutes the last 3 seasons. I guess that means he may barely be a top 4 D-man in your opinion since i'm guessing the minimum a top 4 should play is 20 min.

You do realize that theres only 60 minutes in a hockey game right?

Top pairings average 24-28 minutes
2nd pairings average 18-20 minutes
3rd pairings average 10-15 minutes

Luca Sbisa's career in Vancouver (not including this season where he averages 15 minutes) he has averaged 17 minutes. Thats between 2nd and 3rd pairing minutes which makes sense seeing how injury depleted the d has been in his time here. Not to mention the fact Jim Benning thouht he was a top 4 d-man when he first brought him here so they originally tried to play him as one.

Luca Sbisa's ice time has been going down every season since coming to Vancouver (last 3 years including this season). Erik Gudbranson's ice time has gone up every year his last 3 years in Florida. His ice time here is almost at the highest he has ever had, being under a minute less.

4 years ago Gudbranson averaged almost 19 minutes a game. a 20 year old does not get that much ice time unless he is absolutely considered a top 4 d-man.

 

[Addison Rae]

I'm not "ignoring" it's a ridiculously small sample size, that's why I put little merit into it. My question states "objectively prove how Erik Gubranson has been a top 4 dman over a large sample size" nothing you're saying proves that.

Comparing Gubranson's minutes to Tanev's minutes is absloutely ridiculous, hEre's Gubranson's even strength ice time relative to his teammates over the pas 3 seasons.

2015/2016 Gubranson 5th on his team in ESTOI/PG
2014/2015 Gudbranson 5th on his team in ESTOI/PG
2013/2014 Gudbranson 4th on his team in ESTOI/PG

To suggest that this player is "absolutely a top 4 dman" is just factually incorrect. Not to mention his actual results don't suggest he's a top 4 dman either. These numbers just again confirm what I've already said he's a 4/5 with top 4 upside going forward.

 

[JuniorNelson]

Burrows look totally done. He can go to IRL, freeing cap space.

Miller is a luxury, Markstrom can start.

Canucks must add scoring.

Why aren't teams stripping Benning of assets? Boeser and Demko are not sacrosanct. Nobody is, except the sainted Sedins. Flip Benning a kid who looked good in a league game and he'll overpay. He can be talked into accepting a veteran or waiver candidate. It's cake for some GM, what's delaying it?

 

[TacitEndorsement]

I actually expected Gudbranson to be a tire fire coming into this season but have been pleasantly surprised. Canucks could come away even in this one after all.

 

[DadBod]

I think Guddy is a #3-#4 defenseman. I don't really care what fancy stats say he's a good player, and an important piece. Just because a defenseman doesn't put up points, doesn't mean he's a crap player.

Anyways, another solid OP by Bure to Mogilny. As always his posts make me want to slurp up my newborns barf through a straw and spit it in my wife's face. Op's player evaluation is on par with my dogs ability to understand quantum mechanics. And quite frankly if this thread doesn't win a Grammy Kanye West will leave HFboards forever.


Good job man, keep it up!

 

[Canuck Luck]

I'm not "ignoring" it's a ridiculously small sample size, that's why I put little merit into it. My question states "objectively prove how Erik Gubranson has been a top 4 dman over a large sample size" nothing you're saying proves that.

Comparing Gubranson's minutes to Tanev's minutes is absloutely ridiculous, hEre's Gubranson's even strength ice time relative to his teammates over the pas 3 seasons.

2015/2016 Gubranson 5th on his team in ESTOI/PG
2014/2015 Gudbranson 5th on his team in ESTOI/PG
2013/2014 Gudbranson 4th on his team in ESTOI/PG

To suggest that this player is "absolutely a top 4 dman" is just factually incorrect. Not to mention his actual results don't suggest he's a top 4 dman either. These numbers just again confirm what I've already said he's a 4/5 with top 4 upside going forward.

Once again making up statistics. 2015-2016 Gudbranson was actually tied for 4th in ATOI at even strength. He also had the 2nd worst OZS to DZS % on the team and was 1 of 3 d-men to have a higher DZS% than OZS%. 1 of those 3 only had a difference of 1.8% so really 1 of 2. Goes to show that the coaches relied on his pairing to be the rock on defense.

Of course its going to be a small sample size, its the playoffs! It just goes to show that he's a guy Florida heavily leaned upon when they needed it most. Why not just discredit any cup win then? I mean like you say, its such a small sample size after all! A team should have to win at least 2 in a row to prove they are actually a good team.

After Vincent Trocheck who only played 2 games and had his ATOI heavily increased by overtime, Gudbranson had the highest ATOI last playoffs of any Florida player. Just because its a small sample size doesn't disregard it.

Guess what, he was also #2 (after Matheson who played 5 of 6 games, and not including Trochek since he played 2 games) for ATOI at EV during the playoffs. He was also the ONLY player INCLUDING forwards to have a worse DZS than OFZ and the margin was insane at at over 42% more starts in the dzone. Sure seems like their coaches considered him to be their best d-man for their playoffs and their only reliable shutdown d-man.

So really it was 1 season out of 3 he didn't get #4 minutes in ATOI at ES.

Also why is it "absolutely ridiculous" to bring Tanev's minutes as a point of top 4 d-men play around 18 minutes a night. Especially when you brought up (incorrect stat mind you) Luca Sbisa's minutes first to discredit that? I fail to see a difference here besides if it supports your argument or if it supports mine. I said the average top 4 d-men ice time is 18 minutes. You claim thats not top 4 ice time because Sbisa averaged a minute less. I brought up how a top pairing d-man in Tanev only averaged 3 minutes more a game so if 18 isn't top 4 ice time, then Tanev is barely a top 4 d-man based on your claim.

 

[Addison Rae]

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Please tell me where "I'm making up statistics" and where are you getting "again" from? Where did I previously "make up" statistics? You're literally doing nothing to disapprove what I'm saying, nothing. For example even if he were tied for the 4th highest minutes on his team, how exactly does that disaprove what I've said? Being 4th, 5th and tied for 4th on a team that's missed the playoffs in 2 out of those 3 seasons is not clearly being a top 4 dman. When players like Tom Gilber and Willie Mitchell are playing more minutes than you, you're not clearly a top 4 dman. He's exactly what I've described him as a 4/5 with top 4 upside. You've done nothing to show otherwise.

 

[Canuck Luck]

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Please tell me where "I'm making up statistics" and where are you getting "again" from? Where did I previously "make up" statistics? You're literally doing nothing to disapprove what I'm saying, nothing. For example even if he were tied for the 4th highest minutes on his team, how exactly does that disaprove what I've said? Being 4th, 5th and tied for 4th on a team that's missed the playoffs in 2 out of those 3 seasons is not clearly being a top 4 dman. When players like Tom Gilber and Willie Mitchell are playing more minutes than you, you're not clearly a top 4 dman. He's exactly what I've described him as a 4/5 with top 4 upside. You've done nothing to show otherwise.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/FLA/2016.html is the site I used.

You made up statistics saying Sbisa averages 18 ATOI when even using your site he barely averaged 17.

You also said 5th 5th 4th, not 4th 5th 4th. You should figure out what you yourself have said before disputing that you aren't making up stats since you just discredited yourself.

So now if a team misses the playoffs 2 out of 3 seasons, That means their d-men aren't top 4 D even though they are deployed as such? LOL I wonder if you would say that about the Canucks d-men or any other team thats missed the playoffs the last 2/3 years then.

Tom Gilbert had one of his best seasons that year. The very next year he was deployed as a #4-5 in Montreal who finished #2 in the entire league that season. He was deployed as a #4 the year prior to him being in Florida with the Wild who were 4th in the West.

Willie Mitchell only played more minutes 1 year, which was 14-15. The year before that guess what? He was #3 in ice time for the STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS. But yea clearly a 22 year old Gudbranson should beat out a scrub like Mitchell who came off being a #3 for the Cup champs.

But tell me again how 2 guys that played on playoff teams as established #4 d-men who were brought in for that role is a knock on a 21 and 22 year old Gudbranson.

You say I don't make any arguments that disprove what you say. All I see is you avoiding most of my points that prove you wrong and instead trying to come up with more excuses.

I said 18 minutes is top 4-dman ice time and all you've said to disprove that is a guy that gets that icetime on a non-playoff team is not a top 4 d-man. That means you think the Canucks don't have top 4 D men either since they missed the playoffs 2/3 years I guess Ekblad isn't a #2 d-man after all because you know they missed the playoffs 1/2 times in his career so how Florida used him shouldn't matter.

 

[Nucklehead Supreme]

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Please tell me where "I'm making up statistics" and where are you getting "again" from? Where did I previously "make up" statistics? You're literally doing nothing to disapprove what I'm saying, nothing. For example even if he were tied for the 4th highest minutes on his team, how exactly does that disaprove what I've said? Being 4th, 5th and tied for 4th on a team that's missed the playoffs in 2 out of those 3 seasons is not clearly being a top 4 dman. When players like Tom Gilber and Willie Mitchell are playing more minutes than you, you're not clearly a top 4 dman. He's exactly what I've described him as a 4/5 with top 4 upside. You've done nothing to show otherwise.

You make arguments to suit your narrative and then when someone comes back with valid counter-arguments you say "well he wasn't a top 4 dman because he played for a ****** team" LOL Your wrong dude and Mitchell averaged just over 16 minutes last year and Guds averaged just over 20, so because Guds was relied on for special teams more than Mitchell and that meant less ES ice time, were saying he is less valuable lol talk about splitting hairs, he was obviously seen as a more important dman, he played MORE minutes, where he played is irrelevant especially considering where he was playing.

 

[Addison Rae]

Never did I once say Luca Sbisa played 18 minutes a night, I said he played similar minutes. It's okay for you to compare Gudbranson's minutes to Chris Tanev's (3 minute disparity) but when I compare his minutes to Sbisa's it's "misleading information"

I clearly posted the link that indicated that Willie Mitchell played more at even strength last year than Gudbranson, so I'm again not making anything up. Again my point still stands even if he's tied with Mitchell in minutes, that doesn't refute my point being 4th, 5th and tied for 4th in even strength minutes doesn't suggest "he's clearly a top 4 guy" it actually pretty much supports my claim that he's a #4/5. When I think of clear top 4 guy I think of a guy like Jason Garrison who plays #3/#4 minutes.

How exactly am I changing my narrative, you need to learn how to comprehend better my main point is he isn't a top 4 dman because he doesn't consistently play top 4 minutes, and doesn't churn out top 4 results. I further added it's even worse that he was unable to establish himself as a top 4 dman on a poor team, that's not me changing my viewing it's me helping justify my position.

Suggesting I don't think Vancouver or Florida have top 4 dman because of that is just bat **** crazy, it has literally nothing to do with what I said.

Hilarious that I'm called out for "making up statistics" yet you completely butchered how many minutes Mitchell played last year, Mitchell played more at even strength and all together Gudbranson played 7 more seconds per game than Mitchell last year. Playing 7 more seconds than your #5 (less at even strength) doesn't absolutely make you a top 4 dman.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Never did I once say Luca Sbisa played 18 minutes a night, I said he played similar minutes. It's okay for you to compare Gudbranson's minutes to Chris Tanev's (3 minute disparity) but when I compare his minutes to Sbisa's it's "misleading information"

I clearly posted the link that indicated that Willie Mitchell played more at even strength last year than Gudbranson, so I'm again not making anything up. Again my point still stands even if he's tied with Mitchell in minutes, that doesn't refute my point being 4th, 5th and tied for 4th in even strength minutes doesn't suggest "he's clearly a top 4 guy" it actually pretty much supports my claim that he's a #4/5. When I think of clear top 4 guy I think of a guy like Jason Garrison who plays #3/#4 minutes.

How exactly am I changing my narrative, you need to learn how to comprehend better my main point is he isn't a top 4 dman because he doesn't consistently play top 4 minutes, and doesn't churn out top 4 results. I further added it's even worse that he was unable to establish himself as a top 4 dman on a poor team, that's not me changing my viewing it's me helping justify my position.

Suggesting I don't think Vancouver or Florida have top 4 dman because of that is just bat **** crazy, it has literally nothing to do with what I said.

When you spend your 21-22 year old seasons as the #4 and #5 (losing that spot to someone who was just a #3 for the cup champs the previous season) and then go back to being the #4 at 23, that to me is a #4. Take into account that by the end of the season he was the #3 and became the #1 for the playoffs, that to me means you are a bonafide #4 on that team at worst over that 3 year span.

But you seem to think otherwise.