C Connor McDavid - Erie Otters, OHL (2015 Draft) III

[nbwingsfan]

Well, he's on pace for like 200 points and he hit 99 last year as a 16 year old, so, yeah.

He's atlking about NHL points at 18. Crosby at 16 put up 135 points. So McDavid is already well behind him in that regard.

 

[Get North]

Let's see him score 100+ points in his rookie season just like Crosby and Ovechkin. Somehow I doubt that he'll.

I don't think that many people believe McDavid will be Crosby, so that really isn't a good comparison.

 

[Fred Taylor]

How good is this Dylan Strome guy? Is it very likely he'll be outscoring McDavid for much longer? And does he play on the same line as McDavid?

 

[EON]

How good is this Dylan Strome guy? Is it very likely he'll be outscoring McDavid for much longer? And does he play on the same line as McDavid?

Strome is very good, just in a different way. A lot of McDavid's game is based upon speed, while Strome is more of a power guy, slows the game down. No, I don't expect him to outscore McDavid much longer. And no, he does not play on the same line. He centers the second line. They do see powerplay time together.

 

[Semantics]

Let's see him score 100+ points in his rookie season just like Crosby and Ovechkin. Somehow I doubt that he'll.

Ovechkin was 1.5 years older than McDavid will be as a rookie, so that's not really a fair comparison.

Crosby on the other hand was 0.5 years younger, putting up 100+ points as a rookie who had just turned 18 when the season started was extraordinary. Especially for being on a team that finished 2nd last overall.

 

[Paxon]

Ovechkin was 1.5 years older than McDavid will be as a rookie, so that's not really a fair comparison.

Crosby on the other hand was 0.5 years younger, putting up 100+ points as a rookie who had just turned 18 when the season started was extraordinary. Especially for being on a team that finished 2nd last overall.

Even less fair would be if people compare whatever McDavid puts up in the NHL next year directly to totals from '05-'06 without considering the massive difference in leaguewide scoring. Not that I think McDavid will match Crosby's totals even after adjusting for deflation, but it's going to be very unfair if people don't consider this in comparing him with Crosby, Ovechkin, etc. To illustrate this, Crosby put up basically the same amount of points last season as he did in his rookie season, despite being a greatly better player now.

 

[JJTT]

How come this wasn't posted yet, Connor borrowed a suit from Don Cherry

 

[nbwingsfan]

I don't think that many people believe McDavid will be Crosby, so that really isn't a good comparison.

Sadly, I've seen many posters say McDavid could be better than Crosby as he has more "skills".

 

[detredWINgs]

Well... in his rookie year Crosby was already one of the best players in the NHL - If not the best. Do you think McDavid could do that? Depending on the team, I'll say he will be around 50-60 points, just like Tavares.

That is revisionist history at its finest. He was, definitively, not the best player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Sadly, I've seen many posters say McDavid could be better than Crosby as he has more "skills".

Who has said that McDavid will be better than Crosby?

For my money, McDavid is the more skilled prospect, better hands, better shot, faster. I don't think he has the same awareness away from the puck and doesn't find the openings as well when he doesn't have the puck. He also doesn't have the same puck possession ability, but he has shown improvement there.

For those reasons, I consider Crosby to have been the better prospect, and don't expect McDavid to ever catch him.

 

[Wintersun]

Who has said that McDavid will be better than Crosby?

For my money, McDavid is the more skilled prospect, better hands, better shot, faster. I don't think he has the same awareness away from the puck and doesn't find the openings as well when he doesn't have the puck. He also doesn't have the same puck possession ability, but he has shown improvement there.

For those reasons, I consider Crosby to have been the better prospect, and don't expect McDavid to ever catch him.

From what I've seen from McDavid, his shot is really bad. In fact, with his speed and hands he gets breakaways or scoring chances every shift and can't finish. If there's something holding him back, that's his shot and scoring ability.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

From what I've seen from McDavid, his shot is really bad. In fact, with his speed and hands he gets breakaways or scoring chances every shift and can't finish. If there's something holding him back, that's his shot and scoring ability.

You saved me from making the exact same post. His finish is poor.

 

[aef1400]

You saved me from making the exact same post. His finish is poor.

And he still has 5 goals in 4 games to start the year lol.. Crazy to think how many he could have/end up with this year if he improves.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

And he still has 5 goals in 4 games to start the year lol.. Crazy to think how many he could have/end up with this year if he improves.

My worry is that that is hard to improve. It's like they say, "You can't teach someone to score". You either have it or you don't. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[ProgOg]

And he still has 5 goals in 4 games to start the year lol.. Crazy to think how many he could have/end up with this year if he improves.

There was a good quote by Darryl Belfry from a few weeks ago. He is a guy that trained Crosby, Mackinnon, Tavares, etc. this year.

Now I'll peel a couple more layers off the onion for you to see how daunting the challenge of "Prospect to Player Conversion" really is with the following translatable skill challenges for every player.
I'll start with the story of a client of mine I had a few years ago, who came to me after scoring back to back 40 goals in the CHL and a 37 in his draft year, yet as a soon to be 20 year old, had been passed over twice in the draft and was garnering virtually no interest from @NHL teams and this player was wrought with anger and every ounce of the accompanying confusion.
In an effort to illustrate to him that not all goals in the @CHL are viewed equally as they relate to the @NHL, I pulled the video of all 40 goals and showed him 8 I categorized as pro goals, leaving him 32 that wouldn't translate. In explaining to him the reality is he is an 8 goal scorer in pro hockey, and probably under 5 in the @NHL with his current habit base, it didn't ease his anger, but did dissipate the confusion.
One player on his team who was the same age as him had 11 goals the year this player had 37 and never scored anymore than 20 in the @CHL and is now scoring 20 goals in the @NHL. How is that possible? Because of the 11 goals he scored, all of them were pro goals. The 11 goal scorer is actually 3 goals better than the 37 goal scorer. Harsh reality, but true.

More here - Prospect to Player conversion

Can't really say how that applies to McDavid's goal scoring abilities - but junior goals don't equal NHL goals, that is for sure.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Joe Thornton did just fine in the NHL without having a great ability to finish.

 

[Halfy]

its not like he cant "raise the puck" or anything. However, a shot IS something you can easily work on. His shot is junior average right now. He'll get better. Heckin', maybe he'll surprise us and start "sniping them genos upstairs" this season.

 

[Halfy]

anybody with photoshop skills want to photoshop him onto Carolina or Buffalo? Leading candidates right now.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I honestly think his shot is underrated (and under utilized). He has shown the ability to snipe from the outside though, especially coming down the left wing. He's not a great shooter yet, but he's OK.

Crosby's shot was similarly average, but with his short stick and flat blade he really struggled to score from the perimeter until he was about 20/21 years old, though he did have that quick release. When comparing the two, I really do think Mcdavid had the better overall shot at the same stage in their development.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Crosby's shot was similarly average, but with his short stick and flat blade he really struggled to score from the perimeter until he was about 20/21 years old, though he did have that quick release. When comparing the two, I really do think Mcdavid had the better overall shot at the same stage in their development.

You have a point. Early in Crosby's career everyone complained he couldn't score and all his points came from assists. Obviously, he turned out fine.

 

[tsujimoto74]

anybody with photoshop skills want to photoshop him onto Carolina or Buffalo? Leading candidates right now.

Sabres board already on it.

 

[Lebowski]

You have a point. Early in Crosby's career everyone complained he couldn't score and all his points came from assists. Obviously, he turned out fine.

He scored 39 goals as a 18 years old rookie... Better than a perceived "sniper" such as Kessel scored in his entire career, to put things into perspective. He also never scored under a 30+ goals pace despite being a pass first type of player for most of his career.

Crosby never was about the shot regardless. Most of his goals come from within 20 feet of the net through deflections/rebounds and such. He proved he had a rocket of a shot on various occasions, but his play style rarely allows him to showcase that part of his game.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

He scored 39 goals as a 18 years old rookie... Better than a perceived "sniper" such as Kessel scored in his entire career, to put things into perspective. He also never scored under a 30+ goals pace despite being a pass first type of player for most of his career.

Crosby never was about the shot regardless. Most of his goals come from within 20 feet of the net through deflections/rebounds and such. He proved he had a rocket of a shot on various occasions, but his play style rarely allows him to showcase that part of his game.

I remembering people saying he spent the off season working on his shot to improve his goal production after it had dropped off early in his career. Maybe I am misremembering.

 

[ProgOg]

I remembering people saying he spent the off season working on his shot to improve his goal production after it had dropped off early in his career. Maybe I am misremembering.

And then he scored 51 goals. His goals per game are pretty consistent over the years, with super high numbers in 2009-10 and 2010-11.

On average it is around 0.45 goals/game. Highest in a season was 0.78/game(10-11), and 0.62/game(09-10).

The 10-11 season is just 41 games, but that is the 2nd highest goals/game in a season compared to Stamkos and Ovechkin. Only Ovechkin's 65 goals were better.

 

[Lebowski]

He definitely worked on his shot in the year following their cup win, but that's only part of the reason why his goals number spiked. He openly said he wanted to take more shots to the net. The results speak for themselves.

2007-2008: 53 GP, 24 goals, 3.26 SH/G
2008-2009: 77 GP, 33 goals, 3.09 SH/G
2009-2010: 81 GP, 51 goals, 3.70 SH/G
2010-2011: 41 GP, 32 goals, 3.93 SH/G

Not a coincidence all of his SH/G averages directly line up with his goal pace in each of these years. I believe it was as much of a personal commitment to score more goals as it was about improving his shot. As I said, 39 goals at 18 years would be considered insane for any rookie out there.