Value of: buch and Zib IN A PACKAGE

[pld459666]

You will get more dealing them separate than together

 

[bernmeister]

We're trading our center and winger for the potential best piece coming back being a Dman? I'm pretty sure what we need is a top center in this package. I like Newhook, but if you're expecting him to take a top center role on 1-2 years, I think you'll be disappointed. This is a step back for NYR who already loaded up on prospects / elc players. If we're trading this package, we're looking for an upgrade / young established center signed long term. And no team is going to give up the assets it takes to get both Zibanejad and Buchnevich. (Keyword: going to) *unless you're a player asking to be traded. You're more than likely looking at selling them separately.

Why would Avs even consider giving up top prospects and draft picks to take on 12 plus million in cap if they wanted to keep Buch and Zibanejad? And we don't need to trade away everybody that has a cap hit greater than 3 million.

This is a valid point [getting another high end lefty D].
However, my view is beyond the narrow focus.

Same w/going for Dahlin and not Eichel, I went w/a top LD b'c that is what was available. I did not turn down a comparably high end C to do so.

Byram is a store of high end value.

Hopefully both Hajek [starting to emerge] and Reunanen [good after 1 game], w/Jones + Roberson in the wings, along w/K'A M, we find Byram is a surplus. If not, we can possibly use Byram.

More likely we deal Byram in a yr or 2 and we have choices as to who is available and at what price.
At that point, do we want to inquire about Byfield? Yes? No? Maybe?
Or do we prefer others?
The pt is you have a signif asset of high value as a universal currency.

------------
Byram was natural to bring up b'c I mentioned Avs, and did so b'c they fit the profile of a team w/good chance for SC, but not slam dunk, and might overpay to enhance cup chances x 2 [this season + next].

Colorado only an example here and my bad if I did not emphasize that better at sq. 1.

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We should not be slavishly predisposed IMO, to insisting we MUST only go for an area of need, when taking best value, max return should work out best in the long term, as we eventually find a mutually complementary deal, flipping surplus for an area of need.

Of course, you have to have first made the prior deal to generate the surplus.
---------------

I did not expect both these guys to be moved in a package, but I wanted to inquire with an open mind.

Looks like we keep Zib and could do
Buch to CAR
for
Drury, 2021 1st + some Zuc-esque conditional adds

Drury would be a solid step to adding another pivot, although I remain convinced if they give Kravtsov and Barron a chance w/the correct linemates, they will be adequate + pivots along w/Chytil.

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

No wait, there's more.
Also guilty of unjustified repetition.

You lecturing anyone on unjustified repetition is rich.

 

[bernmeister]

Avs should hang on to their top young talent for several reasons. First, no reason to get into even bigger expansion draft trouble than necessary. Secondly, if you have good players on ELCs you'll be able to extend your window. Third, the main needs currently is a backup goaltender and a 3C. Avs have a good enough first and second line as it is.

I see what your saying.
My OP was based on premise a club would gamble to add so much more depth/firepower for 2 yrs cup contention it would be worth it.

It is completely reasonable to say, the alternative of a measured cup run and keep youth is the preference.

Out of curiosity, what would you offer for Howden and Georgiev?

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Show me.

No need it's obvious in the actions of the organization....You know it just bothers you that the rest of the league knows it....If not then sign him LT.....Kinda put up or

 

[unicornpig]

fine.
If we are truly far apart and NY is not getting desired currency in return, will sell a la carte.

You have a good shot at the Cup, but not ironclad.
Ya wanna hold on to the future a bit and not go all in for next 2 yrs at min, okay.
But you reap what you sow.

Step away from the computer

 

[bbny]

Zibanejad shouldn't be and isn't for sale. He obviously had a really rough stretch offensively to start the year, but even with that he is a tremendous two way player who can play in any situation and plays the game hard.

 

[bernmeister]

Zibanejad shouldn't be and isn't for sale. He obviously had a really rough stretch offensively to start the year, but even with that he is a tremendous two way player who can play in any situation and plays the game hard.

right now this is true.
Thanks to trouba's 8 per we can't keep him long term unless he agrees to 5 yrs max extension, pref 4, and keeps salary to 8 or less.

Need to discover what the market is and make an informed decision.

 

[TGWL]

No need it's obvious in the actions of the organization....You know it just bothers you that the rest of the league knows it....If not then sign him LT.....Kinda put up or

...We can't sign him yet. He's a ufa next season. We can't sign him to a new contract before free agency. 1 year before contract ends.

 

[Nightrain]

Bern delivers yet again. Only I’m surprised Broberg wasn’t somehow included in a 3 way

I value Zib, returned from the covid grave, at 2/2.5 to start, then up that bc he is not a 1 yr rental at worst but 2, at less than 6 per, and that assumes Rangers do not retain. So now we are looking at over 3 1sts in value.

Add Buch, 1.5 ish to start, factor in also cost controlled next season at min [yes he is arb eligible but we are covid constrained another 2 yrs. If Buch goes that route I seriously doubt he gets more than 4.75 or so for 1 season.] Remember he is only 3.25 hit this season. So now we are looking at close to 2 1sts in value.

.

No need for a three way trade. A direct Edmonton ranger trade.

In Bernency (Bern currency) Zibanejad and Buchnevich are worth north of 5 firsts.

McDavid could have fetched 4 firsts in RFA, Broberg is a recent first, this would total 5 firsts.

Ergo McDavid and Broberg for Zib and Buch!

 

[bbny]

right now this is true.
Thanks to trouba's 8 per we can't keep him long term unless he agrees to 5 yrs max extension, pref 4, and keeps salary to 8 or less.

Need to discover what the market is and make an informed decision.

Agreed on 8 million now. I think that's reasonable. He was on track for more than that, probably 10 million.

I disagree about the years. The Rangers have plenty of cap space and the young players do not look to be commanding it any time soon. No problem giving Zibanejad a 7 year extension.

 

[bernmeister]

No need for a three way trade. A direct Edmonton ranger trade.

In Bernency (Bern currency) Zibanejad and Buchnevich are worth north of 5 firsts.

McDavid could have fetched 4 firsts in RFA, Broberg is a recent first, this would total 5 firsts.

Ergo McDavid and Broberg for Zib and Buch!

for the record, you said it not me.
the rfa aspect is technically true, but McD is currently worth double-ish that limit of 4, if not more. He is in discussion for best of all time, barring injury. Also true is EDM would always do all to eliminate/minimize his possible exit, incl. offering max $ and max term.

 

[bernmeister]

Agreed on 8 million now. I think that's reasonable. He was on track for more than that, probably 10 million.

I disagree about the years. The Rangers have plenty of cap space and the young players do not look to be commanding it any time soon. No problem giving Zibanejad a 7 year extension.

Currently 27 with a deal paying only 5.35 per thru next season, it ends and he is just shy of 30. The new pact at/near max term finishes him north of 35 yrs old, which is not good.

There are multiple scenarios here. 2 at either ends:
He waits this deal out, tries for max $ and term after.
or
We do another 5 year deal, effective immediately, getting rid of the 5.35 for 8 immediately. That is fair to him short term esp given next 2 yrs cap constrained and good for club long term.

Want a deal finishing when he is 33 or 34.
He could wind up playing this well when he is 40, but want to play percentages covering to 33 ish.

So I do the second scenario.

If he doesn't want to go there, we have no choice long term except trade him, or let him walk.
Dealing trouba might make a difference esp if most of that 8m per is not retained. However, don't see that happening.

So at this pt, I field offers and ask Mika where is he at.

 

[Vipers248]

Im not Bernie. I just happen to agree with him on this post. Lets agree to disagree.

 

[goal1228]

View attachment 411237

No, no I am not Bernie. I do see your point though. I am a New York fan, mostly Islander. Your right it is hypocritical to expect the Islanders to give up their top 2 prospects and atleast 2 1sts for a very good winger in Forsberg but not the Rangers giving up any of their top 3 prospects for a top 5 center in tbe league signed long term. And yes i know what Dumbfounded means lol!

 

[bernmeister]

View attachment 411237

Vapid, full of hate, and superficial.
Criticism is fair game, but the fairness requires at least a modicum of objective honesty.

No, no I am not Bernie. I do see your point though. I am a New York fan, mostly Islander. Your right it is hypocritical to expect the Islanders to give up their top 2 prospects and atleast 2 1sts for a very good winger in Forsberg but not the Rangers giving up any of their top 3 prospects for a top 5 center in tbe league signed long term. And yes i know what Dumbfounded means lol!

It is not hypocritical, and I'll explain why.
Short answer: this is like apples to oranges.
Dif teams at dif places w/dif needs.

Isles
legit cup contender

roster largely settled

Dobson + Wahstrom are foundation pieces, but Isles already have enough depth that if they had to be sacrificed for a substantial enuf quality add, Isles can afford to go there.

Isles can go all in with the right deal, and a younger star, while sacrificing two blue chip guys, can go there if repercussions and a wince but manageable.


Rangers
entirely different status

emerging younger core almost ready but needs minutes; this is the year we gel, etc so we can kick ass next season

need to repurpose value in Strome and Buchnevich while giving mins to and keeping bluest blue chip elcs to constrain cap and = depth in lineup

whereas Isles salary is mostly resolved, Rangers have no immediate issues but short term must be careful due to potential probs w/structural salary cap concerns.
Have breadman 10+ we are thrilled
Good w/Kreider 6+.
However we can't get out from under Trouba's 8m per for another 3ish seasons.

And Zib remains to be resolved. If he wants north of 8ish and term, he will have to go, But if he goes there, we need to be prepared.

So if anything NY needs more low cost, high end futures.

On top of that, for the first time in recent memory, Rangers are drafting well. That behooves the guys from Gotham to utilize that strength by adding picks, the higher the better.
Repeat another season or two, and at THAT point there is such an abundance of riches a splurge can be entertained. Not before, unless Trouba waives prematurely.

So for all of the above, Rangers should not add new vets which interrupt the development of youth that has arrived.

On the other hand, while the Isles should not burn all their youth on a reckless gamble, they can think about 1 or 2 guys for a guy who gets them into and then perhaps thru a cup final

It would be better for Isles to offer alternate swag for Forsberg, but don't see Preds accepting same.

And Eichel, setting aside injuries to date, is not rfa cost controlled. He is a 10 m add to the roster, unless there is retention, which is not to be expected. It is not a matter of if he is worth it, it is a matter of is he affordable on an ongoing basis, Until Trouba goes, answer for Rangers, long term is no.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

The Rangers must lead HFboards in posters that embarrass the fanbase on the mainboards.

 

[mouser]

But the premise here was reciprocal to that. Typically, two player assets are available. If moved separately, prices are a la carte; the supply and demand theory is separate transactions max competitive bidding for each, and that is the best return.
But in this case, the premise asks the question, IF both players are included in the same deal, it greatly ratchets up not only what internal benefit the acquiring team has for its own production due to the acquisition. It also helps the acquiring team by depriving any fellow competitor from instead getting those assets. That is, the acquiring team pays a premium, a heavy premium, to deprive anyone else of these assets, in this case locking both up for a minimum of this season and next.

Think of it as a tax happily paid to remove the competitive bidding, a fee for the exclusivity.

So that is part of what I had in mind with the Avs illustration, and what would apply to a different acquiring team.

I was hoping for cerebral responses to help gauge the dynamic between this, and the alternative of selling pieces separately. Obviously different deals with different pieces are variables to different results. Which is stronger in this instance? Buch + Zib separately? Or in a package?

Is the trading team, in this case NYR, better able to extract a max price premium here?
Or is there a point at which such max extraction is too much, no team will pay it, and it will accept the risk someone else does, or try to press to have the package broken up with its components sold separately?

thank you again and keep it coming.
but pls lets stay focused and play nice

If I owned both a classic Chevrolet Corvette, and a classic Volkswagon Bus that I wanted to put up for auction: Do you think I'd get higher bids by combining them together into one lot or if I auction them separately?

 

[Eggtimer]

I do not get the point of this at all.
I am not in the know nearly as much as most posters when it comes to cap ramifications and fitting Zib in future plans etc etc .
I know it’s dumbed down , but to me it’s - Rangers need another C . Why would you trade your best one away? What am I missing?

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Sakic is the last type of GM that would cough up that many blue chip pieces for a package of Zibanejad and buchnevich and G.

he basically sat on a duchene trade forever until he hit a home run. he certainly isn't doing the inverse here

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Gorton better watch his back. Someone’s out for his job.

 

[bernmeister]

If I owned both a classic Chevrolet Corvette, and a classic Volkswagon Bus that I wanted to put up for auction: Do you think I'd get higher bids by combining them together into one lot or if I auction them separately?

That's an otherwise valid point.
But I explained earlier herein how this is not like an ordinary sale, where a customer is often looking to pay less and wants a volume discount.

The idea here is one of these guys for mostly futures is a signif add and ups yr chances of Cup, likely this season + next.
But getting both and depriving your competition of either, THAT is a rationale for a single club to pay a premium given the Cup is the presumed goal, although at least one eye needs to be open for what the impact is short term after going super heavy all in win now those 2 years, because you reap what you sow.

This is not an option for most clubs, it is for a handful.
But it only takes one.

And again, end of the day, the smart guy will look at all options.
Is the offer of 1 club w/a premium actually higher than 2 separate bids?

It is a competition betw. competition of
cornering the market with exclusivity on one hand
vs
multiple suitors competitive bidding different deals

I was hoping to see same names and values inserted, but surprisingly ALL clubs are being sensible with a long term view, and not going overboard on such an all in

Which is fine.
This was not so much advocating for an outcome as an exercise in curiosity.

 

[bernmeister]

Sakic is the last type of GM that would cough up that many blue chip pieces for a package of Zibanejad and buchnevich and G.

he basically sat on a duchene trade forever until he hit a home run. he certainly isn't doing the inverse here

Fair enough, though you often don't know til you ask.
A Duc, deal was regular biz, w/intent to gain assets for long term mostly regular season.

This is intended as an ask, no one club is lights out fave for cup, this about intensifying for 2 yrs your status, pushing it from cup contender to cup finalist, x 2 seasons

 

[bernmeister]

If I owned both a classic Chevrolet Corvette, and a classic Volkswagon Bus that I wanted to put up for auction: Do you think I'd get higher bids by combining them together into one lot or if I auction them separately?

An afterthought to help illustrate.

I agree w/you all things =,
a corvette collector will bid more for the chevy
and a VW collector will bid more the the bus.

That could = 99% of what is routine.

Flip side.
Jay Leno has a really uber-rich friend who wants to do him a solid. He thinks both are great adds to Jay Leno's Garage --- a cool show btw.

This friend says I'll pay top $ now, but I want both items off the market.

You are the seller. You're not taking less, you are asking exclusive premium, and Leno's friend will pay it.

Does that visualize where I was coming from?

 

[bernmeister]

Gorton better watch his back. Someone’s out for his job.

too busy planning to help save the world w/a concept on how to restructure the international monetary system, so no. Stay tuned for that, major announcement likely later this yr

part time consultant maybe. but otherwise no.