Value of: buch and Zib IN A PACKAGE

[bernmeister]

I wanted ZBAD when he was slumping or hurt or w.e still want him now.
Take whoever you want from the Leafs in terms of assets. retain 50% on ZBAD.

Thank you for your interest.
Moving Zib a la carte would be a fall back position.

We could retain on Zib, but that is not a throw in. That accommodation costs. Would also want to compare that vs taking back an expiring bad salary.

Given there are certain players TOR will keep and NY wants to avoid larger salaries, and Trouba is not movable, I am not optimistic any [principal] Leaf vets can be a fit.

Assuming you would empty the cupboard, what is the extent of primo prospects you can offer, adding to 1sts?

 

[kp61c]

Isn't it a bit premature to go all in on Laf and Kakko both of whom can still easily end up busts?

 

[bernmeister]

Oh brother......

Rangers wouldn't deal both together to start with.
Why not?
Not saying they have to, just saying it is an option that must be thought thru...

Not gonna get max value that way
pls elaborate

Byram is basically untouchable.
Yes, I see.
But it was not unreasonable to ask if, should this deal substantially up Avs chances for this season and next, would they be open to go there.

Avs fans react just as badly.
Everyone has a right to their opinion.

There has been pleasant talks in here about a Z at 50% for Newhook/1 offer in the last 1-2 weeks.
I saw those.
Let's be honest and accurate, pls.
Those were for zib as he was start of the season thru mid March, which reflected his expectation on a signif, star level breakout season, but then modified by current funk due to covid.
Most of us pushed back that once the switch got thrown and Mika returned to form, that his temporary illness was fully exorcised, the price would properly go up.
Speaking of price, that was a starting pt of Newhook and a 1st, not 'and/or'.

The switch is thrown, the price is up.


But the Buch for Byram/1 aspect of it, is downright silly. And I f*cking love Buch.
You got it wrong.
The fully valued Zib is the key piece vs Byram.
Buch is the key piece vs Newhook.

Delayed future 1sts are for balance and in line with premise of max overpay due to exclusivity of package to acquiring team not only adds to that team, but takes such possible difference makers away from a competitor who is also close to vying for SC.

 

[Vitto79]

Rangers wouldn't deal both together to start with.
Why not?
Not saying they have to, just saying it is an option that must be thought thru...

Not gonna get max value that way
pls elaborate

Byram is basically untouchable.
Yes, I see.
But it was not unreasonable to ask if, should this deal substantially up Avs chances for this season and next, would they be open to go there.

Avs fans react just as badly.
Everyone has a right to their opinion.

There has been pleasant talks in here about a Z at 50% for Newhook/1 offer in the last 1-2 weeks.
I saw those.
Let's be honest and accurate, pls.
Those were for zib as he was start of the season thru mid March, which reflected his expectation on a signif, star level breakout season, but then modified by current funk due to covid.
Most of us pushed back that once the switch got thrown and Mika returned to form, that his temporary illness was fully exorcised, the price would properly go up.
Speaking of price, that was a starting pt of Newhook and a 1st, not 'and/or'.

The switch is thrown, the price is up.


But the Buch for Byram/1 aspect of it, is downright silly. And I f*cking love Buch.
You got it wrong.
The fully valued Zib is the key piece vs Byram.
Buch is the key piece vs Newhook.

Delayed future 1sts are for balance and in line with premise of max overpay due to exclusivity of package to acquiring team not only adds to that team, but takes such possible difference makers away from a competitor who is also close to vying for SC.

so you realize you think too hard about this right ? Why would NYR deal both ?
They won’t get top prospects for only 1 yr left on Zib and at this point why do they want more prospects ?
This year is about growing so just accept the teams going to stay the same

 

[goal1228]

OP parameters:
NYR will not deal bluest blue chip elcs.

Immediately, NY need do NOTHING.
Near future, youth WILL be served and to max cap situation, vets will go to give mins to emerging youth.

Strome I see, but mo likely in a separate deal.

Buch HAS emergED, no longer getting there, has arrived.
Zib, we know his slow start was due to covid immediately prior to season, needed recovery time, rust of no camp, etc. Wed nite game vs Flyers natural hat trick, 1st star, indicates he has returned to form. Both are cost controlled to team thru [incl] next season.

While you can comment on your team acquiring separately, purpose of this thread is to see what full measure of max might be harvested by NYR dealing both to a single team. Such a power add could be enough to put a team over the top --- hence the return has to be top, top dollar.

Geo is optional as Shesty is our #1 and we have Kinkaid for exp dr and can promote stopgap if nec., so if you want/need a G that can be optional add.

--------
Have at it.
Again, top offers, pls
Like from Avs,
Buch + Zib + Geo
for
Byram + Newhook + 2022 + 2023 1sts + acceptable cap dump(s).

somethin like dat.

want to assess value of package vs sold separately...

This one makes alot of sense to me.

 

[bernmeister]

...

Buch is just in his prime, bern. you guys should be seein if you can sign him long term. His yrs will fit right in with when the young core hit their stride.
Buch is victim of bad covid timing = exacerbation of existing flat cap = next 2 yrs min = min increase if any for most.
His present salary is 3.25 w/final rfa + arbitration. He will def get a raise, no ? and he deserves one. But given he is starting now at 3.25, what you are looking at is likely a signif raise % wise to 4.5-4.75 ish min. That is a 1-2 yr deal taking him into UFA and hopefully for him a rebounded market for players w/salaries not constrained by covid.
Other option is he goes 5, 5.2 per for 5 yrs. Gives up something at back end for something more now.
But consistent w/bern philosophy no NMC to anyone, ever. Adequately generous NTC, but never a NMC.

Either way, what is limited here are minutes.
Our emerging blue chip elcs need those.
So betw. that and eventual need to have max roster flexibility, Buch needs to be moved, eventually. If market is robust for him now as possible dif maker this season, NY needs to not reject that market and those offers.


you can’t just dress ALL prospects and Panarin. Edmonton did the “young too prospects” game and it did crap for them. You’ll need a middle aged vet on top of his game to show and lead them
We have enough vet leadership even if all 3 --- Zib, Buch, and Strome --- are moved.
Panarin, Kreider both = enuf experience for their lines.

The other side is how many mins do these guys need, and it obv varies from one to the other.
But I would counter that we are well served long term by giving guys like Kakko, who have already taken great strides, more minutes.
Gauthier is another.
LaF I concede is a rookie but already shows maturity as a fast learner.
Barron is an unknown, tho he is playing well in the A.
Kravtsov I expect to kick ass day 1, provided he is not misused on 4th line or some other nonsense.

Kakko-Kravtsov-Panarin
that's the line
do it. just effin do it.


As was evident, Quinn has served his purpose.
We need a coach like Knoblauch, provided he does not overly experiment and juggle line assignments/D pairings, and we will be fine.

 

[bernmeister]

Isn't it a bit premature to go all in on Laf and Kakko both of whom can still easily end up busts?

Fair ?
No it is not.

In fact, as long as you do not put excess pressure on them, with correct linemates, they will grow and thrive.
We already see flashes from kakko based on his raw physical tools.
Imagine him w/breadman mentoring him and Kravtsov in the pivot.

As to LaF, I am open to experiment, but prefer he get his feet wet staying lefty shot at LW. He has looked good w/righty shot Gauthier at RW.
LaF is a rookie. He has been fine ++ considering he has been moved throughout the lineup.
Correct pivot for those 2 -- prob Barron as of next yr -- they get comfy, upped comfort level = better instinctive play w/specific linemates = better reaction/quicker time = improved results.

Again, the effin win now crowd seeking instant gratification.
LaF was rated most complete/best prospect since MacKinnon, excluding of course a couple of generationals.
No worries.

 

[bernmeister]

hahah not a chance you get half of that from the Avs

I know you think you can sell high because of one game but even with that game Zib doesn't even look like an improvement on our 2nd line.

Go peddle Zibanejad and Buch somewhere else because the Avs aren't buying and certainly not at the price of the recent 4th overall defenseman who is already contributing to our roster (not to mention the 3 other very valuable pieces you're asking)

Thanks for your opinion.
It is clear Colorado fans
a) do not want to move Byram regardless
b) do not want to mortgage future to win now.
Those preferences are to be respected, as should be OP putting the ? forth b'c it is a fair ? to ask if an offering team [here NYR] can substantially up the odds of a cup for next 2 years, and if yes, what is the extent you would pay.

Clearly Avs want to roll on their own, not signif upgrade, take their chances as is, and with that, buy the knowledge they have sensibly planned to be a contending presence in the near future by holding prized prospects and picks.

peace out.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

About 20 Menthol Kools

 

[bernmeister]

AVs have specific needs. You've done your research that checks 2C/3C + G, but the ask is excessive for basically 4-1sts.

They can't mortgage their future with impending extensions to Mack, Rants, Makar and Grubs for basically 1.5 years. Issue with the expansion draft would also cost another good player. You might have met their needs, but the ask is not even close to being realistic.

I appreciate very much the constructive critique based on objective analysis.

Relative to value, no effort to swindle here.
Let's examine.
I would concur with your conclusion of 4 1sts value, but that is ballpark and overall.
I value Byram, highly drafted but not NHL debut to date, as about 3 1sts.
I value Newhook, a mid selection, as more or less a 1st.
I acknowledge two additional 1sts, but discount because they are both delayed, 1 and 2 full years.
So that is around 5ish or a bit over in value from Avs.

I value Zib, returned from the covid grave, at 2/2.5 to start, then up that bc he is not a 1 yr rental at worst but 2, at less than 6 per, and that assumes Rangers do not retain. So now we are looking at over 3 1sts in value.

Add Buch, 1.5 ish to start, factor in also cost controlled next season at min [yes he is arb eligible but we are covid constrained another 2 yrs. If Buch goes that route I seriously doubt he gets more than 4.75 or so for 1 season.] Remember he is only 3.25 hit this season. So now we are looking at close to 2 1sts in value.

So now that is ballpark under 5 1sts value from Rangers to a bit over 5 from Avs. The dif covers the premium that Avs win the bid to be exclusive purchasers of 2 dif makers, who are taken off the market, out of competitors' hands.

Now I am sure we can do a bit of civil haggling/quibbling, but you see where I came from.

 

[bernmeister]

I appreciate all Avalanche fans responding as I specified their team in an illustration.

Clearly, they don't want to mortgage the future and go all in, setting aside if there were agreement on the pieces.

Which is fine.
The question was asked, the answer is acknowledged and accepted.

MOVING ON
what teams if any would pay a premium for these 2 guys NOW

Challenge the inner intellectual debater within you, and in the words of Ringo Starr:
get yourself together now and give me somethin tasty...

 

[bernmeister]

so you realize you think too hard about this right ? Why would NYR deal both ?
They won’t get top prospects for only 1 yr left on Zib and at this point why do they want more prospects ?
This year is about growing so just accept the teams going to stay the same

V, I covered all this in the replies posted and the OP.
Pls pay attention and re-read.

 

[Vipers248]

This one makes alot of sense to me.

Bernmiester posts are a joke He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about and talks like an idiot in his posts The only one who agrees with him is goal1228 which I wouldn’t doubt is a second acct setup by crazy Bernie and that would be shameful to get likes for his ridiculous posts

 

[TGWL]

We're trading our center and winger for the potential best piece coming back being a Dman? I'm pretty sure what we need is a top center in this package. I like Newhook, but if you're expecting him to take a top center role on 1-2 years, I think you'll be disappointed. This is a step back for NYR who already loaded up on prospects / elc players. If we're trading this package, we're looking for an upgrade / young established center signed long term. And no team is going to give up the assets it takes to get both Zibanejad and Buchnevich. (Keyword: going to) *unless you're a player asking to be traded. You're more than likely looking at selling them separately.

Why would Avs even consider giving up top prospects and draft picks to take on 12 plus million in cap if they wanted to keep Buch and Zibanejad? And we don't need to trade away everybody that has a cap hit greater than 3 million.

 

[Vipers248]

This one makes alot of sense to me.bernmeister

Bernmiester posts are a joke He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about and talks like an idiot in his posts The only one who agrees with him is goal1228 which I wouldn’t doubt is a second acct setup by crazy Bernie and that would be shameful to get likes for his ridiculous posts

 

[Seachd]

MOVING ON
what teams if any would pay a premium for these 2 guys NOW

I think you’ve already gotten your answer.

 

[TGWL]

Some Rangers fans want to trade Zib because they fear signing him to LT deal due to his health....Why would another team trade a lot for him?

Fixed for you. There's been nothing about our organization not wanting him signed.

 

[goal1228]

Bernmiester posts are a joke He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about and talks like an idiot in his posts The only one who agrees with him is goal1228 which I wouldn’t doubt is a second acct setup by crazy Bernie and that would be shameful to get likes for his ridiculous posts

Im not Bernie. I just happen to agree with him on this post. Lets agree to disagree.

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Fixed for you. There's been nothing about our organization not wanting him signed.

Not true

 

[Freudian]

Avs should hang on to their top young talent for several reasons. First, no reason to get into even bigger expansion draft trouble than necessary. Secondly, if you have good players on ELCs you'll be able to extend your window. Third, the main needs currently is a backup goaltender and a 3C. Avs have a good enough first and second line as it is.

 

[easton117]

Does this bernmeister guy have a channel? Think he might be an entertaining follow

 

[Nickmo82]

Rangers fans generally in a nut shell

HFboards fans generally in a nut shell.

 

[TGWL]

Not true

Show me.

 

[bernmeister]

Bernmiester posts are a joke He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about and talks like an idiot in his posts The only one who agrees with him is goal1228 which I wouldn’t doubt is a second acct setup by crazy Bernie and that would be shameful to get likes for his ridiculous posts

Ad hominem, generally speaking the post is extensively without substantiation and as to the last sentence, to be thrown out there without any hint of a basis in reality, borders malice.

This is your comeuppance.
Crawl back in shame to the rock from under which you came out.

Don't come out until you are mature enough not to fear things you don't understand.

Bernmiester posts are a joke He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about and talks like an idiot in his posts The only one who agrees with him is goal1228 which I wouldn’t doubt is a second acct setup by crazy Bernie and that would be shameful to get likes for his ridiculous posts

No wait, there's more.
Also guilty of unjustified repetition.

Im not Bernie. I just happen to agree with him on this post. Lets agree to disagree.

Which is actual proof of my point.

 

[bernmeister]

I think you’ve already gotten your answer.

Shocking but you may be right.