Sportsnet: Arizona have received an offer matching their asking price for Jakob Chychrun.

[rt]

As I said "There's not a trade available with the Coyotes that Florida and Arizona agrees to. Lundell is off the table. The 'Yotes fans don't want Knight."

I think Knight is the right value, but wrong position for Arizona right now.

My sense here is that every JC to FLA trade is going in a circle: Arizona fans want Lundell; Florida fans say no; Florida fans offer Knight+2 other firsts and Arizona says no.

For what it's worth, I'm not sure there's a player in the league that I'd trade Lundell for with considering contract status and Florida's roster.

I’d say this is mostly true. But I think we need to make a distinction between the Coyotes and their fans.

I wouldn’t trade Chychrun for Knight, Samoskevich, and the ‘23 1st. And I don’t think you’ll find many AZ fans who would. Like basically none. Like less than 5% if you polled them. The reason is simply that Knight is a goalie prospect. Anyone who’s followed NHL prospects very closely for ten or twenty years knows what that means.

But Arizona scouts aren’t talking about generalized policies or odds on goalie prospects, on the whole. They’re talking about a very specific goalie prospect. It’s possible, even likely, they’ve watched 80% of every game Knight has ever played in D1 and pro. It’s possible, even likely, they know extremely well the people that know Knight better than anyone.

Generally speaking, it’s very stupid to draft goalies in the 1st round. Generally speaking, it’s very stupid to trade 1st round picks for goalies. Generally speaking, it’s very stupid to accept a goalie in a package, in lieu of a 1st. And this is a pretty obvious and easily probable truth, generally speaking.

However, one can agree with all of that, and still also believe that Spencer Knight is a future elite goaltender, and franchise player, akin to Carey Price. It’s not mutually exclusive. You can have the opinion that most of the time it’s very stupid to give up tremendous value for goalies, while at the same time having the opinion that Spencer Knight will be a top 5 goalie in the world for many, many years to come.

Coyotes fans aren’t qualified to hold this opinion. The Coyotes brass might be. And I’d the Coyotes brass does hold this opinion, it’s very possible they would trade Chychrun for Knight, Samoskevich and a 1st.

 

[rt]

I’d say this is mostly true. But I think we need to make a distinction between the Coyotes and their fans.

I wouldn’t trade Chychrun for Knight, Samoskevich, and the ‘23 1st. And I don’t think you’ll find many AZ fans who would. The reason is simply that Knight is a goalie prospect. Anyone who’s followed NHL prospects very closely for ten or twenty years knows what that means.

But Arizona scouts aren’t talking about generalized policies or odds on goalie prospects, on the whole. They’re talking about a very specific goalie prospect. It’s possible, even likely, they’ve watched 80% of every game Knight has ever played in D1 and pro. It’s possible, even likely, they know extremely well the people that know Knight better than anyone.

Generally speaking, it’s very stupid to draft goalies in the 1st round. Generally speaking, it’s very stupid to trade 1st round picks for goalies. Generally speaking, it’s very stupid to accept a goalie in a package, in lieu of a 1st. And this is a pretty obvious and easily probable truth, generally speaking.

However, one can agree with all of that, and still also believe that Spencer Knight is a future elite goaltender, and franchise player, akin to Carey Price. It’s not mutually exclusive. You can have the opinion that most of the time it’s very stupid to give up tremendous value for goalies, while at the same time having the opinion that Spencer Knight will be a top 5 goalie in the world for many, many years to come.

Coyotes fans aren’t qualified to hold this opinion. The Coyotes brass might be. And I’d the Coyotes brass does hold this opinion, it’s very possible they would trade Chychrun for Knight, Samoskevich and a 1st.

Obviously this could all be true for Swayman, Lysell, and a 1st from Boston for Chychrun. 95% of AZ fans would scream “HELL NO!!!” to that package. It makes me want to rage vomit. But it could be the Coyotes brass would jump up and down in giddy excitement to get that package for Chychrun. We just don’t know.

 

[rt]

To CAR:
Jakob Chychrun (50%)
Travis Boyd
Conditional ‘23 AZ 3rd**

To ARI:
Ian Cole (Dump)
Jake Gardiner (LTIR)
Seth Jarvis
Scott Morrow
2023 CAR 1st

**’23 AZ 3rd becomes a ‘23 AZ 7th if CAR qualifies for either the ‘22 or ‘23 ECF.

 

[rt]

In 9 years since it was introduced, we have seen long-term retention to facilitate a trade, but not explicitly to increase value.

How do you make that distinction? Let’s use the OEL retention as an example. How can you say that was only to facilitate the trade rather than to increase value? In this case (and in the hypothetical Chychrun/Jarvis example) aren’t those two things really the same thing?

In the case of Chychrun and Carolina the value in the retention may not necessarily be overwhelming to Carolina this season. But it affords them tremendous flexibility in the off-season and the next deadline and the off-season and deadline after that, etc. Additional aav to retain or attract additional talent. This extra edge to put them over the top. True contention and especially longer term contention requires great players on great value contracts. Chychrun at 2.3aav for three years is as good as it gets.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Have they? There's no reason to put this out into the media unless they're not happy with the offers so far and are trying to get better ones.

 

[Sempiternal]

Seems like someone is begging the media for Coyotes attention.

 

[rt]

Have they? There's no reason to put this out into the media unless they're not happy with the offers so far and are trying to get better ones.

If you read through the thread or listen to the podcast or read the blog you’ll understand what Marek meant.

 

[rt]

Seems like someone is begging the media for Coyotes attention.

What Marek said makes perfect sense. I recommend listening to the podcast segments in which he and Friedman discuss this. Makes it pretty easy to understand.

 

[Alluckks]

How about if AZ retains 50% on Chychrun? Does that make up the value-gap? Allows Carolina to keep another piece they might otherwise have to lose.

Chychrun (50%) & Travis Boyd for Ian Cole (dump), Seth Jarvis, Scott Morrow and a ‘23 1st?

Boyd has been playing C full-time in AZ and has 10g 10a in 33gp so far. He should be able to replace just for this one season, what Carolina is losing in Jarvis. He’s right at 700k aav prior to proration.

I’m assuming Cole is a dump. He’s 7th among CAR D in EVTOI/GP - I see he’s getting PK mins but not on the 1st unit. He may not be terrible or terribly overpaid, but adding Chychrun probably drops him out of the regular lineup. Chychrun at 50% drops him to 2.3aav prior to proration. Cole
Is 2.9aav prior to proration.

I don't believe there is a realistic chance that Arizona retains on Chychrun at all, let alone 50%

 

[Maplebeasts]

If you read through the thread or listen to the podcast or read the blog you’ll understand what Marek meant.

I see. In that case I'll give it a lesson when I get the chance. I do like Chychrun though and think he should get a good return. Usually young dmen of his talent with a near Norris level season under their belt aren't on the market.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

To CAR:
Jakob Chychrun (50%)
Travis Boyd
Conditional ‘23 AZ 3rd**

To ARI:
Ian Cole (Dump)
Jake Gardiner (LTIR)
Seth Jarvis
Scott Morrow
2023 CAR 1st

**’23 AZ 3rd becomes a ‘23 AZ 7th if CAR qualifies for either the ‘22 or ‘23 ECF.

Jarvis, Morrow, and a 1st? That's quite a bit. I think Canes hang up quickly on this

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

How do you make that distinction? Let’s use the OEL retention as an example. How can you say that was only to facilitate the trade rather than to increase value? In this case (and in the hypothetical Chychrun/Jarvis example) aren’t those two things really the same thing?

In the case of Chychrun and Carolina the value in the retention may not necessarily be overwhelming to Carolina this season. But it affords them tremendous flexibility in the off-season and the next deadline and the off-season and deadline after that, etc. Additional aav to retain or attract additional talent. This extra edge to put them over the top. True contention and especially longer term contention requires great players on great value contracts. Chychrun at 2.3aav for three years is as good as it gets.

There's been 3 notable long-term retention trades up to this point: Luongo, Kessel and Ekman-Larsson. The commonality is that they all carried high cap hits for their quality at their positions. It's hard to move big money outright in the NHL, particularly when trade clauses limit the number of suitors (applicable in all 3 cases).

What you're suggesting is retaining on a player that already has a really good contract. Not delving into the debate of what he is, he has doesn't have to be a 1D to overperform his cap hit. He's being paid like a 2nd pairing defenseman. Macro view, yeah, all cap saved is the same. Trade time, I'll believe GMs not talking themselves into choosing to squeeze other parts of the roster to make it work, thus paying less in a trade, when I see it.

 

[featherhawk]

so what is the hold up then?

oh I know, they have not recieved an offer matching the asking price...

 

[Gstank]

Just for the fun of it

NYR
Miller

Van
Chychurn
Skinner


Arizona
Hoglander
NYR 2022 1st
Lindqvist/Jones

 

[Overrateprospects]

To CAR:
Jakob Chychrun (50%)
Travis Boyd
Conditional ‘23 AZ 3rd**

To ARI:
Ian Cole (Dump)
Jake Gardiner (LTIR)
Seth Jarvis
Scott Morrow
2023 CAR 1st

**’23 AZ 3rd becomes a ‘23 AZ 7th if CAR qualifies for either the ‘22 or ‘23 ECF.

That is brutal for Arizona. Why would they need Carolina to reach ECF to drop a pick from 3rd to 7th round

3rd should be going the other way with it becoming a 2nd 2023 if they get to ECF and a first if they reach finals in either 22/23.

 

[steierwrass]

Trading Lundell is a difficult topic.

It's difficult topic, because Lundell is very valuable for team now and maybe even more in next two seasons. Florida will have some cap issues next two seasons and having player like Lundell with ELC is big thing for team. There aren't much cap dumps to give with him, that help next seasons. Mostly Hörnqvist.

Chychrun would be nice add to Florida, but loss isn't just Lundell, but the other parts you have to give up to fit your team under cap. They are better team with Lundell and rentals every year.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

How does that trade answer my question?

Lundell is 20 stud C with 2.5 years left on his elc, when’s the last time a 20y stud C with multiple elc years was traded?

Those are the most valuable assets in the league, pure gold for teams and Gm’s

Johanssen was traded 6 years post draft while on a 3x4 bridge

Brayden Schenn comes to mind, Philip Danault too, to some extent Dylan Strome

 

[Bevans]

To CAR:
Jakob Chychrun (50%)
Travis Boyd
Conditional ‘23 AZ 3rd**

To ARI:
Ian Cole (Dump)
Jake Gardiner (LTIR)
Seth Jarvis
Scott Morrow
2023 CAR 1st

**’23 AZ 3rd becomes a ‘23 AZ 7th if CAR qualifies for either the ‘22 or ‘23 ECF.

Awful. The first round pick doesn't even cover all the salary retention and absorption going on here.

You've dumped like 6 million and an LTIR on another team spread over multiple years. Look at the cost of previous cap acquisitions (lehner, foligno, Marleau, etc).

A 1st for 50% retention, ian Cole dump and Gardiner is not enough.

Then you just squeeze Boyd in there too.

Just not how the cap world works.

 

[TK 421]

Brayden Schenn comes to mind, Philip Danault too, to some extent Dylan Strome

Schenn was used primarily as a RW in Philly. After the trade to the Blues is when he finally got a chance to play C full time.

 

[BB88]

Brayden Schenn comes to mind, Philip Danault too, to some extent Dylan Strome

How are they anywhere close to the same?

Danault was drafted 2011 and got traded in 2016, his 1st good season was in 16-17 and Lundell at 20y is beating that season.

Strome was drafted in 2015 and got traded in 2018 after he had done zero in the NHL.
Schenn had 2 nhl points under his belt when he got traded

Lundell is a 20y elite C prospect who has 2.5 years left on his elc, those guys just don’t get traded in this league.
He doesn’t belong in the same sentence with the guys you mentioned

 

[rt]

Awful. The first round pick doesn't even cover all the salary retention and absorption going on here.

You've dumped like 6 million and an LTIR on another team spread over multiple years. Look at the cost of previous cap acquisitions (lehner, foligno, Marleau, etc).

A 1st for 50% retention, ian Cole dump and Gardiner is not enough.

Then you just squeeze Boyd in there too.

Just not how the cap world works.

You’ve done a poor job of expressing yourself. Please clarify.

1. Awful for which team?

2. You’re saying the 1st doesn’t cover the retention in Chychrun and the absorption on Cole and Gardner? Yet, Jarvis and Morrow are in the deal. You’re saying they don’t balance it out?

3. How does Boyd’s inclusion break the cap? What do you mean that’s not how the cap world works? Are you implying this isn’t compliant?

 

[rt]

Jarvis, Morrow, and a 1st? That's quite a bit. I think Canes hang up quickly on this

That is brutal for Arizona. Why would they need Carolina to reach ECF to drop a pick from 3rd to 7th round

3rd should be going the other way with it becoming a 2nd 2023 if they get to ECF and a first if they reach finals in either 22/23.

You two should argue with eachother. We’ve got one guy saying it’s “brutal” for Carolina and two guys saying it’s “brutal” for AZ.

 

[rt]

There's been 3 notable long-term retention trades up to this point: Luongo, Kessel and Ekman-Larsson. The commonality is that they all carried high cap hits for their quality at their positions. It's hard to move big money outright in the NHL, particularly when trade clauses limit the number of suitors (applicable in all 3 cases).

What you're suggesting is retaining on a player that already has a really good contract. Not delving into the debate of what he is, he has doesn't have to be a 1D to overperform his cap hit. He's being paid like a 2nd pairing defenseman. Macro view, yeah, all cap saved is the same. Trade time, I'll believe GMs not talking themselves into choosing to squeeze other parts of the roster to make it work, thus paying less in a trade, when I see it.

Darcy Kuemper had a good contract when Arizona retained on it.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

How are they anywhere close to the same?

Danault was drafted 2011 and got traded in 2016, his 1st good season was in 16-17 and Lundell at 20y is beating that season.

Strome was drafted in 2015 and got traded in 2018 after he had done zero in the NHL.
Schenn had 2 nhl points under his belt when he got traded

Lundell is a 20y elite C prospect who has 2.5 years left on his elc, those guys just don’t get traded in this league.
He doesn’t belong in the same sentence with the guys you mentioned

Wow man talk about biased and picky. You put up extremely specific conditions for comparable situations and then when provided with examples you shoot them all down because they are not exactly the same.

Im not say he will get traded but if Eichel got traded then Lundell is by no means 100% untouchable

 

[Mr Positive]

Have they? There's no reason to put this out into the media unless they're not happy with the offers so far and are trying to get better ones.

Their ask was certain types of players and picks, but that doesnt mean that the pieces were the best quality. But it does mean that the market is getting close to giving what Arizona wants