Sportsnet: Arizona have received an offer matching their asking price for Jakob Chychrun.

[Bevans]

All of the freebies. Then it's a matter of who blinks first.

It could be that Carolina fans don't want to trade Jarvis at any price which is fine. But the solution to that is to not make the trade. You don't hope Armstrong suddenly becomes Santa and takes on all your cap problems.

An example of this would be Sanderson for Chychrun.

It's likely neither team would do it. Sometimes you gotta bet on your horse.

 

[Overrateprospects]

Yet Carolina fans seem not to like it. Why do you suppose that is?

Because they rather keep their guy and send future picks instead

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Darcy Kuemper had a good contract when Arizona retained on it.

He only had a year left on his contract.

 

[rt]

He only had a year left on his contract.

Did the goal posts just move? It was an example of an already cheap contract being retained on in order to maximize value, as the acquiring team was willing to pay up for additional flexibility. In that way, it’s similar. And that’s what we were discussing, right?

 

[rt]

All of the freebies. Then it's a matter of who blinks first.

It could be that Carolina fans don't want to trade Jarvis at any price which is fine. But the solution to that is to not make the trade. You don't hope Armstrong suddenly becomes Santa and takes on all your cap problems.

You think ALL of them should be removed? That wouldn’t even work from a cap-perspective. At the very least Cole needs to be included to facilitate the deal, without really impacting the value. Cole isn’t really a negative value asset. And I think Boyd’s value is low enough that he could stay in the deal, right? Canes will want to replace Jarvis’ production for this season, and AZ isn’t going to get much for Boyd in a stand-alone deal, anyhow.

Would you concede the deal is at least close to fair for Arizona if we simply remove Gardiner, the conditional AZ pick, and the retention on Chychrun?

I think I should mention again that I’m a Coyotes fan, and not a Canes fan (though if Chychrun and Jarvis swap teams, the Canes are immediately my 2nd favorite team).

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Did the goal posts just move? It was an example of an already cheap contract being retained on in order to maximize value, as the acquiring team was willing to pay up for additional flexibility. In that way, it’s similar. And that’s what we were discussing, right?

I cited the cases of long-term retention and you pointed out a short-term example. Chychrun has term. There’s a big difference in $1 mil in retention and $7 mil+ total (when factoring in the rest of the season). It’s unprecedented.

 

[Bevans]

You think ALL of them should be removed? That wouldn’t even work from a cap-perspective. At the very least Cole needs to be included to facilitate the deal, without really impacting the value. Cole isn’t really a negative value asset. And I think Boyd’s value is low enough that he could stay in the deal, right? Canes will want to replace Jarvis’ production for this season, and AZ isn’t going to get much for Boyd in a stand-alone deal, anyhow.

Would you concede the deal is at least close to fair for Arizona if we simply remove Gardiner, the conditional AZ pick, and the retention on Chychrun?

I think I should mention again that I’m a Coyotes fan, and not a Canes fan (though if Chychrun and Jarvis swap teams, the Canes are immediately my 2nd favorite team).

If Carolina "needs" something in the trade then they pay for it. Arizona isn't here to give favors.

Flyers paid to make them take ghost and ghost has been a positive.

 

[rt]

I cited the cases of long-term retention and you pointed out a short-term example. Chychrun has term. There’s a big difference in $1 mil in retention and $7 mil+ total (when factoring in the rest of the season). It’s unprecedented.

Anything is unprecedented if you put enough filters on your data.

When was the last time a left handed red head who’s last name starts with a P was traded for a 5’11 forward with Type 1 diabetes?

Haha.

I think it’s conceptually and logically sensible enough to be plausible.

 

[rt]

If Carolina "needs" something in the trade then they pay for it. Arizona isn't here to give favors.

Flyers paid to make them take ghost and ghost has been a positive.

I’ll take the retention off Chychrun. And I’ll take the bizarre conditional 3rd out. But I think Boyd, Cole and Gardiner need to stay in.

Chychrun and Boyd for Jarvis, Morrow, ‘23 1st and Cole+Gardiner as dumps, strikes me as fair “enough” for Arizona. You might think it’s not steep enough. But I think Canes fans will think it’s too steep.

 

[Bevans]

I’ll take the retention off Chychrun. And I’ll take the bizarre conditional 3rd out. But I think Boyd, Cole and Gardiner need to stay in.

Chychrun and Boyd for Jarvis, Morrow, ‘23 1st and Cole+Gardiner as dumps, strikes me as fair “enough” for Arizona. You might think it’s not steep enough. But I think Canes fans will think it’s too steep.

It's a bidding war and fair has nothing to do with it. It's easy to stomach dumps like Gardiner and Cole for "free" when you're not the one cutting the cheque.

There's a reason why NHL teams demand compensation for dead money. I don't see enough (or any) compensation in your offer.

 

[rt]

It's a bidding war and fair has nothing to do with it. It's easy to stomach dumps like Gardiner and Cole for "free" when you're not the one cutting the cheque.

There's a reason why NHL teams demand compensation for dead money. I don't see enough (or any) compensation in your offer.

I wish we could get some more Canes fans to chime in. I’m going to tag some:

@Big Daddy Cane
@tarheelhockey
@Caniac4ever
@Blueline Bomber
@Tryamw
@Cardiac Jerks
@Svechhammer
@DaveG
@Unsustainable
@Lempo
@Anton Dubinchuk
@Surrounded By Ahos

^ there’s a dozen of some of their more active members. Hi Canes fans!!!

I’m a Yotes fan with a Canes proposal. Some neutral fans are telling me that my offer is way too generous to Carolina. And that the Canes should have to pay a bigger price. Meanwhile, I’m skeptical that y’all have much interest, even at this “discount”. Thoughts on this?

To CAR:
LD-Chychrun(50% - 2.3aav)
C-Travis Boyd (10g 10a 33gp)

To ARI:
Jake Gardiner
Ian Cole
Seth Jarvis
Scott Morrow
2023 CAR 1st

I’m an AZ fan. Basically, I know our GM is trying to say he got a great young roster player, a top prospect and a pick.

And I find myself agreeing with the Carolina fan who said that’s all a bit rich when the roster player is Jarvis. He’s a cut-above. So maybe the price should come down.

But I know Armstrong is stubborn and his prices don’t come down. I ask know he’s not afraid to construct a big, hairy, super complicated trade (look at all the pieces in the OEL deal, and the wild ass conditions on the picks for Dvorak and Kuemper). Finally, I know he is more than willing to eat dumps for value.

So what’s 2.3aav retained in Chychrun for three years worth? Probably a late 1st, right? What’s eating Gardiner worth? Given he’s LTIR - not as much, probably. Maybe a 2nd. And how much is Boyd worth? Maybe a 3rd?

So, if the retention on Chychrun pays for the very late 1st that’s 18mo away, what does eating Gardiner and Cole pay for? And what about Boyd? Let’s say they Scott Morrow has doubled his value since the last draft. Say he’s worth two 2nds instead of just one. Surely the two dumps and Boyd pay for half of that.

That means my proposal is more simply, Chychrun for Jarvis and a 2nd. Which I think is fair. And I think most people would think is fair. All of the other stuff is meant to A) get BA his “on-paper” asking price and B) make the cap work, while C) keeping the value as close to Jarvis+2nd as possible.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I wish we could get some more Canes fans to chime in. I’m going to tag some:

@Big Daddy Cane
@tarheelhockey
@Caniac4ever
@Blueline Bomber
@Tryamw
@Cardiac Jerks
@Svechhammer
@DaveG
@Unsustainable
@Lempo
@Anton Dubinchuk
@Surrounded By Ahos

^ there’s a dozen of some of their more active members. Hi Canes fans!!!

I’m a Yotes fan with a Canes proposal. Some neutral fans are telling me that my offer is way too generous to Carolina. And that the Canes should have to pay a bigger price. Meanwhile, I’m skeptical that y’all have much interest, even at this “discount”. Thoughts on this?

To CAR:
LD-Chychrun(50% - 2.3aav)
C-Travis Boyd (10g 10a 33gp)

To ARI:
Jake Gardiner
Ian Cole
Seth Jarvis
Scott Morrow
2023 CAR 1st

I’m an AZ fan. Basically, I know our GM is trying to say he got a great young roster player, a top prospect and a pick.

And I find myself agreeing with the Carolina fan who said that’s all a bit rich when the roster player is Jarvis. He’s a cut-above. So maybe the price should come down.

But I know Armstrong is stubborn and his prices don’t come down. I ask know he’s not afraid to construct a big, hairy, super complicated trade (look at all the pieces in the OEL deal, and the wild ass conditions on the picks for Dvorak and Kuemper). Finally, I know he is more than willing to eat dumps for value.

So what’s 2.3aav retained in Chychrun for three years worth? Probably a late 1st, right? What’s eating Gardiner worth? Given he’s LTIR - not as much, probably. Maybe a 2nd. And how much is Boyd worth? Maybe a 3rd?

So, if the retention on Chychrun pays for the very late 1st that’s 18mo away, what does eating Gardiner and Cole pay for? And what about Boyd? Let’s say they Scott Morrow has doubled his value since the last draft. Say he’s worth two 2nds instead of just one. Surely the two dumps and Boyd pay for half of that.

That means my proposal is more simply, Chychrun for Jarvis and a 2nd. Which I think is fair. And I think most people would think is fair. All of the other stuff is meant to A) get BA his “on-paper” asking price and B) make the cap work, while C) keeping the value as close to Jarvis+2nd as possible.

Taking your last paragraph at face value, I do think Chychrun for Jarvis and a 2nd is fair. Jarvis isn't some superstar, but he's a legit top-6er as a 19 year old and will be on his ELC for 2 1/2 more years. I would think that he's one of the better assets available for Arizona in a potential trade.

The other moving parts are hard to judge because they involve organizational approaches to handling money. Dundon has shown a willingness to spend big money in order to acquire talent -- we got Jarvis in the first place by eating Marleau's salary, and there was the whole thing about overpaying Kotkaniemi to get him on an offer sheet. So if dead salary can be kept off the salary cap, Dundon will presumably be willing to do that. From our perspective, this is more about not getting locked into dead cap hits which will impact other players who need to be re-signed in the next couple of years.

If it becomes a huge complicated deal with a bunch of risk factors, or taking on players we can't really use, I could see the Canes walking away. They're pretty OK with their current group of LHD, and Jarvis is an unexpected get-out-of-jail-free card if we lose a top-6 winger to UFA. At some point a complicated trade will become less about the value of Chychrun, and more about opportunity loss.

 

[rt]

Taking your last paragraph at face value, I do think Chychrun for Jarvis and a 2nd is fair. Jarvis isn't some superstar, but he's a legit top-6er as a 19 year old and will be on his ELC for 2 1/2 more years. I would think that he's one of the better assets available for Arizona in a potential trade.

The other moving parts are hard to judge because they involve organizational approaches to handling money. Dundon has shown a willingness to spend big money in order to acquire talent -- we got Jarvis in the first place by eating Marleau's salary, and there was the whole thing about overpaying Kotkaniemi to get him on an offer sheet. So if dead salary can be kept off the salary cap, Dundon will presumably be willing to do that. From our perspective, this is more about not getting locked into dead cap hits which will impact other players who need to be re-signed in the next couple of years.

If it becomes a huge complicated deal with a bunch of risk factors, or taking on players we can't really use, I could see the Canes walking away. They're pretty OK with their current group of LHD, and Jarvis is an unexpected get-out-of-jail-free card if we lose a top-6 winger to UFA. At some point a complicated trade will become less about the value of Chychrun, and more about opportunity loss.

It’s not complicated for Carolina, though. Boyd makes the league minimum and, here, Chychrun is at 2.3aav for three years.

This just gets Gardiner’s LTIR off the books and gives Carolina a top defenseman in the flower of youth for dirt cheap. It costs an asset premium but they aren’t complicated. It’s just a great ELC, a top prospect, and a future 1st. Kinda standard from that perspective.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I've already said my peace on this, I thought. I can't see the Canes adding significantly to Jarvis, if they even make him available. The extras to justify it are noisy. Retention is a questionable proposition. Boyd is relatively insignificant. Ditto Gardiner's LTIR contract; Dundon is financially committed to putting a winning product on the ice and Boychuk was just given away. Cole was brought in for a reason. It's more likely that he'd slide over and Bear would be the cap casualty.

If the Yotes can get an asset like that plus the quality that you're seeking on top of it, more power to them. I don't see any team crippling its futures pool to the extent that it does here.

EDIT: Morrow is particularly tough to give up among those in the perhaps what you call the B+ group. He was drafted with a high 2nd rounder, is having a very intriguing D+1 season and is unique in Carolina's prospect pool for his position, handedness and playing style.

 

[tinyzombies]

Caufield, Norlinder and a 2nd boom

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

What?

I asked a simply question.

When is the last time an elite C got traded with multiple elc years left.

You mentioned zero and do you know why?
Because they are the most valuable assets in the league.

Danault, Strome& Schenn weren’t anywhere close to being viable examples and gave you reasons for why

You know Eichel trade is garbage example.
Florida isn’t the biggest joke in the league, Lundell isn’t at war with the management

You keep calling him an elite C...

This is why you are biased

 

[rt]

I've already said my peace on this, I thought. I can't see the Canes adding significantly to Jarvis, if they even make him available. The extras to justify it are noisy. Retention is a questionable proposition. Boyd is relatively insignificant. Ditto Gardiner's LTIR contract; Dundon is financially committed to putting a winning product on the ice and Boychuk was just given away. Cole was brought in for a reason. It's more likely that he'd slide over and Bear would be the cap casualty.

If the Yotes can get an asset like that plus the quality that you're seeking on top of it, more power to them. I don't see any team crippling its futures pool to the extent that it does here.

EDIT: Morrow is particularly tough to give up among those in the perhaps what you call the B+ group. He was drafted with a high 2nd rounder, is having a very intriguing D+1 season and is unique in Carolina's prospect pool for his position, handedness and playing style.

I appreciate your perspective. Would you mind sharing what you feel is a more realistic/reasonable counter-offer? Thanks!

 

[one2gamble]

So if they received said offer, why hasn't this happened

 

[Headcrush19]

So if they received said offer, why hasn't this happened

Waiting on a stronger offer that simple

 

[DatDude44]

If it’s Florida, I’m guessing Tippet, Denisenko, 23 1st and Montour or something along those lines.
Maybe serron Noel or Heponiemi is involved.

from STL I’m guessing something around 22 1st, Kostin/Bolduc, Perunovich, Alexandrov and Scandella(for salary)

 

[Schemp]

GMBA probably wait until the draft and just let the rumors go on.

 

[one2gamble]

Waiting on a stronger offer that simple

That's illogical

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

That's illogical

How so?

 

[rt]

If it’s Florida, I’m guessing Tippet, Denisenko, 23 1st and Montour or something along those lines.
Maybe serron Noel or Heponiemi is involved.

from STL I’m guessing something around 22 1st, Kostin/Bolduc, Perunovich, Alexandrov and Scandella(for salary)

Absolutely atrocious value for Arizona in both deals. Scraps.

 

[rt]

So if they received said offer, why hasn't this happened

It’s been explained many times and was pretty obvious to start with. Read the thread. Or better yet, listen to the podcast where this came from and hear Marek explain it himself.