I think some teams just don't pick Russians at all, and other teams have perhaps made the calculus that Russian prospects are not worth as much because they don't jump into your system ASAP. So yeah, Gritsyuk is a great pick, but he's not coming over for another 2 seasons, and he's already scheduled to be a UFA in 2028. Bardakov is also UFA in 2028. Neither guy is here yet.
Prospect Info: 203rd Overall - Zakhar Bardakov
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I think some teams just don't pick Russians at all, and other teams have perhaps made the calculus that Russian prospects are not worth as much because they don't jump into your system ASAP. So yeah, Gritsyuk is a great pick, but he's not coming over for another 2 seasons, and he's already scheduled to be a UFA in 2028. Bardakov is also UFA in 2028. Neither guy is here yet.
The team doesn’t get a one year ELC and then 4 RFA years of the player comes over at 23 or later?
Guadana
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Having nhler for 2-4/5 years in 4-7 round? No, they are not coming over into your system ASAP. Like rebuilding does need in all pieces right now and can’t wait, like contending teams don’t need in nhl ready players on ELC - they don’t have problems with cap and depth usually. So it doesn’t look smart, because it’s as easy to find future nhlers or even better in later rounds than losing later picks for Russian/Belorussian players. Look at Sharangovich. Only a couple of good seasons and only Toffoli only for one year in a trade.
And if they don’t travel to NA? KHL level career isn’t something for 5-7 rounders.
And if they don’t travel to NA? KHL level career isn’t something for 5-7 rounders.
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I think it's a total of 8 teams which have not drafted a Russian skater in the past half-decade. That's 1/4 of the league, which is crazy. Could we imagine a team having such a policy with Swedish players or CHL players?
Guadana
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Malkin, Ovechkin, Tarasenko, Kucherov/Vasilevskiy, Nichushkin and even Barbashev(twice in this list) played some role for success of their teams. So if someone don’t want to draft, develop and sign Russian players, then it’s their own decision.
No, but the CHL and Swedish leagues have transfer policies in place and it's not unpredictable what happens to either. I agree that I wouldn't have that policy, but I understand that it is there, and that just 'getting a prospect' isn't the end goal of the draft.
A player is UFA at age 27 no matter what - with Russians, because there is no transfer agreement, teams hold their rights indefinitely but once they sign an NHL contract, their UFA clock starts and so the next time their contract expires and they are over 27, they're UFA.
It's a bit of a two way street then. The player cannot jump to a different NHL until after he signs that first contract if the drafting team holds his NHL rights without expiraion? Presumably the team that drafted him and signs him wants him for at least a couple of years and the player has to give up at least one UFA year if he wants to come play in the NHL? It also puts the onus on the player to make his mark quickly. No team will want to pay him if he comes over and fizzles out like Gusev. He got two years and then back to the KHL.
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In the last six years? I think every team has drafted at least one. Even the NY Isles sneak in with Ruslan Iskhakov in 2018.
If you’re limiting it to skaters then Seattle doesn’t make the cut, since they’ve drafted 1 Russian and it was a goalie. They’ve only been in 3 drafts.
The real question, who the biggest NHL Russophile since 2018?
Carolina 16 Russian picks
Hands down the winner for both quantity and quality (three 2nds and 2OA).
Arizona, New Jersey, San Jose, Toronto 8 Russian picks
Arizona made this list by drafting 3 Russians in 2023.
Holy crap, Carolina has drafted twice as many Russians as the next teams since 2018? That’s amazing.
As others have noted Russia presents value for draft picks since their lower leagues are less scouted. Carolina bring Carolina they probably developed some algorithm based on league and stats that shows them undervalued players. Not a terrible idea and on some level NJ is following suit.
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Even more amazing?
The number of Russian prospects Carolina signed before 2018 (according to Elite Prospects): 1
Igor Knyazev at #15 in 2001.
So this is a Tom Dundon thing, he became the majority owner in 2018, and a Borg thing, Tulsky became AGM in 2020-21 after starting there as an analyst in 2014-15.
Carolina’s Russian prospect picks (17 total actually)
2023 (5/10)
1st: 0/1 2nd: 0/1 3nd: 0/1 4th: 2/2
5th: 1/2 6th: 1/2 7th: 1/1
2022 (4/7)
1st: - 2nd: 1/1 3rd: 1/1 4th: 0/2
5th: 1/1 6th: 0/1 7th: 1/1
2021 (2/13)
1st: - 2nd: 0/3 3rd: 0/2 4th: 0/1
5th: 0/2 6th: 0/2 7th: 2/3
2020 (3/8)
1st: 0/1 2nd: 1/2 3rd: 1/3 4th: 0/1
5th: - 6th: 0/1 7th: 1/2
2019 (2/12)
1st: 0/1 2nd: 1/2 3rd: 0/3 4th: 0/2
5th: 1/1 6th: 0/2 7th: 0/1
2018 (1/6)
1st: 1/1 2nd: 0/1 3rd: - 4th: 0/4
5th: - 6th: 0/1 7th: 0/1
The bulk have come lately in the onslaught in the last two drafts. Maybe that reflects some teams shying away from Russia (leaving more for them) or maybe they’re simply ramping up their drafting of Russians.
They might be taking advantage of the fact that you can basically let let them cook in Russia and not lose their rights.
The often criticized way Russian players’ rights work has it’s advantages too.
Other prospects have to be signed earlier, even if it’s a project pick who isn’t really ready yet.
You can leave NCAA prospects in college longer but you can lose their rights if they stay there too long.
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I will say that, if I'm an NHL team, I strategize at the draft factoring in the inevitable fall of Russian prospects, especially in the MHL.
I'd add that evidently, a few teams already do this, especially Carolina, New Jersey and Washington.
This is to say that I'd be so bold as to presume that the Devils had guys like Barabosha and Karpovich ranked far higher than where they drafted them, and the same would go for Carolina with Trikozov and Perevalov. But they hold off a bit longer on actually making the selections, because they know many teams won't draft MHL skaters and therefore they can get more value out of the pick by strategically "waiting" a bit.
that's the amazing part. I think you are spot on that they know they can wait for these players and the only other organzations mining these junior teams are Carolina, Washington, and maybe a handful of others. Then factor in draft tendencies that you have turned us on to (some teams generally take players over 6 feet tall or will prize measurables over hockey IQ or they will look past lack of compete or will take bad character players, etc.) and NJ can probably go into the draft with a pretty good idea of where they can take actual NHL prospects past the fourth round of the draft and which players they have to keep an eye on for say Carolina to draft or Washington or whoever else might be part of the group. As always, thanks for sharing your outlook, it makes watching the process much more enjoyable.
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It’s a fascinating rabbit hole.
Toronto did draft a number of them in the COVID draft, they’ve just been handcuffed by having very few picks lately.
Like Carolina they had a break from drafting Russians players, theirs was from 2007-2013 but they’ve drafted at least one since 2014 until 2023.
The fallow periods are kind of fascinating to me.
Forgot to point out Carolina was 17 total when I broke it down lol.
Note: Yes, these are ass-backwards. I didn’t think I was going to keep going with it but sadly I did.
We’re generally in a period where Russian prospects are more plentiful especially when compared to the decade (2005-14) where there was a noticeable drop-off.
The NHL Draft was reduced from 12 rounds to 11 in 1988. It was later reduced to 9 rounds in 1995 and then 7 rounds in 2015. (It was shorter in drafts earlier than 1982.)
| NHL | ‘23 | ‘22 | ‘21 | ‘20 | ‘19 | ‘18 | ‘17 | ‘16 | ‘15 | ‘14 | T |
| ANA | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||
| ARI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |||||
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||
| BUF | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | |||||||
| CGY | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | ||||
| CAR | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17 | ||||
| CHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |||||
| COL | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | ||||||
| CBJ | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | ||
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||||||
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | ||||
| FLA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |||||||
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |||
| MTL | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | |||
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |||
| NJD | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | ||||
| NYI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||||||
| OTT | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | ||||
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |||||||
| SJS | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | ||||
| SEA | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1 | ||
| STL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | ||||
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | |||
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | |
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | ||||
| VGK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 5 | ||
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |||||
| WPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |||||||
| T | 19 | 23 | 29 | 23 | 28 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 208 |
Undrafted Russian NHL rookies from 2014-15 to 2022-23, as far as I could f***ing tell.
27 Total players/16 Teams: ARI (1), CAR (1), CGY (2), CHI (1), FLA (1), LAK (1), NJD (1), NYR (1), OTT (1), PHI (2), PIT (1), SJS (4), TOR (6), VAN (1), VEG (2), WPG (1)
| NHL | ‘13 | ‘12 | ‘11 | ‘10 | ‘09 | ‘08 | ‘07 | ‘06 | ‘05 | ‘04 | T |
| ANA | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| ARI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||||||
| ATL | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2 | 1 | 3 | |||||
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| BUF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| CGY | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| CAR | x | ||||||||||
| CHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| COL | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||||||
| DET | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||
| EDM | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |||||
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |||||
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | ||||||
| MIN | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||||||
| NSH | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
| NJD | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||||||||
| NYI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | ||||
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |||||
| OTT | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |||||||
| PHI | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |||||||
| SJS | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||
| STL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||||||
| TBL | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |||||||
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||
| WSH | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |||
| WPG | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | x | |||
| T | 8 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 106 |
Undrafted Russian NHL rookies from 2005-06 to 2013-14, as far as I could f***ing tell.
2 Total players/2 Teams: EDM (1), PHI (1)
| NHL | ‘03 | ‘02 | ‘01 | ‘00 | ‘99 | ‘98 | ‘97 | ‘96 | ‘95 | ‘94 | T |
| ANA | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | |||
| ARI | 1 | 2 | 1 | n/a | n/a | 4 | |||||
| ATL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 4 | |
| BOS | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |||||
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | ||||
| CGY | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | |||
| CAR | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| CHI | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | |
| COL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | n/a | 6 | ||||
| CBJ | 3 | 2 | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6 | |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14 | ||
| DET | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | ||
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | ||||
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | ||||
| HAR | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| LAK | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | ||||
| MIN | 1 | 1 | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3 | |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |||||
| NSH | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 10 | ||
| NJD | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | |||
| NYI | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | ||||
| NYR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |||||
| OTT | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |||||
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | ||
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |||||
| QUE | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | x | |
| SJS | 1 | 4 | 5 | ||||||||
| STL | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | ||||
| TBL | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 26 |
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | ||
| VAN | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |||
| WSH | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | |||
| WIN | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1 | 1 | |
| T | 29 | 34 | 38 | 43 | 30 | 22 | 18 | 20 | 23 | 32 | 289 |
The rest are 10 year period but I threw two extra years here to get to 1982.
| NHL | ‘93 | ‘92 | ‘91 | ‘90 | ‘89 | ‘88 | ‘87 | ‘86 | ‘85 | ‘84 | ‘83 | ‘82 | T |
| ANA | 4 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 4 |
| BOS | 1 | 3 | 4 | ||||||||||
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |||||||
| CGY | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | ||||
| CHI | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |||||||||
| DAL | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | x | |
| DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | ||||||||
| EDM | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |||||||
| FLA | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | x | |
| HAR | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||
| MNS | n/a | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||
| NJD | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | ||||||
| NYI | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |||||||||
| NYR | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | ||||||
| OTT | 1 | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2 |
| PHI | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | ||||||||
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||
| QUE | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |||||||||
| SJS | 2 | 3 | 1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 6 |
| STL | 1 | 4 | 5 | ||||||||||
| TBL | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | x | ||
| TOR | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |||||||||
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | ||||||
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||
| WIN | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 20 | ||||||
| T | 33 | 38 | 21 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 140 |
Guadana
Registered User
Say to me you are coping this stats and tables.
From talking with an acquaintance who works in the analytics department of a pro team in another sport, the public thinks it's all identifying the players the computer boys like and producing little jfresh charts for prospects, and there's certainly a bit of that going on. But most of it is actually just stuff like this; identifying tendencies of other teams, ascribing value to draft picks, retention slots, types of contracts, optimal ways to distribute salary throughout your roster, identifying which teams are most likely to undervalue assets you value more highly and how you can exploit that in negotiations with those teams.
If our propensity for drafting Russian prospects is intentional rather than coincidental, then it gives me a lot of optimism that all of this is factored in to the decision making process here. If that's the case, I like our chances of sustaining success by continuing to have a plan and process to stick to. Good stuff, all around.
If our propensity for drafting Russian prospects is intentional rather than coincidental, then it gives me a lot of optimism that all of this is factored in to the decision making process here. If that's the case, I like our chances of sustaining success by continuing to have a plan and process to stick to. Good stuff, all around.
It makes sense to me the analytics of how a prospect is performing would probably be further down the list for most teams. Unless you are negotiating which prospects to trade (which is not that often or that many) you can always put together your specific prospect analytics when they are needed and they will be up to date as well at that time. In contrast, I'm sure the routine NHL level stuff is much more day to day especially when it comes to identifying other team's tendencies and contract related things. I have no doubt teams are forever projecting and re-projecting financials and contracts for upcoming seasons. Your friend's explanation isn't surprising in that regard. Put another way, once a prospect is drafted, unless a team asks for him in trade, his JFresh card stuff is not worth looking at until it's time to decide on an ELC and even then, if the guys shows enough tools or was a high enough pick the team is going to sign him and then hope for the best. The one thing you don't mention is how analytics plays into actual games. In football it seems straight forward. Pass plays versus run plays and who is the ball designed to go to based on formation and defensive alignment but in other sports I'd be curious how they apply to in game preparation. Thanks for sharing that with us. I always enjoy a behind the scenes description.
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Elite Prospects made it a lot easier. (I’m not quite insane enough to pour over the drafts themselves.)
We all know you absolutely are. And I mean this in the best possible way.
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I was mostly speaking with regard to roster management here, but as you mentioned in-game decisions come up as well. The person I've spoken with is really more of a friend of a friend so by no means do I know everything their day to day looks like and they also don't work in hockey so I'm sure there's some differences. I would imagine for hockey you would be looking at things like shot probabilities, performance of different powerplay/PK setups and defensive structures, what situations are and aren't worth challenges, developing your own systems for xG calculations and then weighting those for a given opponent to see what changes you should make, looking at performance of your line combinations.
I'm sure what you're focusing on changes depending on the time of year as well given that a front office has different demands throughout the season. As someone who works with data myself, it's just interesting to think about all of the different facets in analyzing a pro sports organization and how which teams are right and wrong about what things to focus on and the conclusions they come to could impact the game.
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Recently got injured apparently. Don’t know if he’s returned. Hopefully a speedy recovery for him.
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