Speculation: 2022-23 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

[Hodge]

You are confusing the chance of each individual player making it with the cumulative probability that none of them make it. You are also grouping together the long shot prospects with those who were high second round picks that probably have a 25% each of making it--Bordeleau, Robins, Lund, Halttunen, Havelid (I would include Gushchin with this group because he has shown more than his draft slot), Remember a bottom-six forward or bottom pairing dman who plays 200 games is a success.

One interesting aspect of Grier's two draft classes is his willingness to draft deep prospects, guys who they won't have to sign for years. Look at the Sharks reserve list on CapFriendly, and the number of guys who don't have to be signed until 2027 is striking. Gives them more time to figure out the game compared to prospects from major junior.

I am grouping them together. I just think the cumulative probability of all of those guys I listed including Bordeleau, Lund, etc. probably adds up to something like 140% i.e. you should expect a grand total of 1 legit NHLer to emerge from that group.

I think you're greatly overestimating the odds that some of these guys play ~200+ games in the show. 25% seems too high for Havelid, Halttunen and Lund. Maybe even for Bordeleau and Robins considering they're turning 22 this season yet are still far below NHL caliber. There's not a ton of developmental runway left there.

It wasn't too long ago that fans would have listed Merkley, Wiesblatt, Coe, Kniazev, Hatakka, Chmelevski, Chekhovich, Leonard, Reedy, Weatherby and Raska on a list like this and insisted that at least 3-4 of them would emerge as NHLers. I remember having similar arguments about those exact players less than 2 years ago and it now looks like none of them will have meaningful NHL careers. It's really hard to make the NHL and significantly harder to stick long term.

 

[DG93]

I'm hoping he shows good promise with the Barracuda this year, gets some games with the Sharks, and is a regular by the second half of next season, turning into a middle pair or even complementary top pair defenseman by 27-28.

My hopeful prospect schedule (as a full-season regular):

23-24 - Eklund
24-25 - Thrun, one of Bordeleau/Gushchin/Robins
25-26 - Smith, Mukhamadullin, one of Bystedt/Lund, one of Cardwell/Young, one of Laroque/Havelid/Furlong
26-27 - 2024 #1, one of Musty/Halttunen/Svoboda, one of Cagnoni/Fisher/Pohlkamp/Landen

That's probably a bit optimistic (and people not named can of course hit), but it's what I hope.

Incidentally, this is basically why I don't expect us to be competing for a playoff spot until 27-28.

I think that's a bit pessimistic...I'd think it's a bit more like this;
2023-2024: Eklund, Thrun
2024-2025: Bystedt, Muk, Gushchin/Bordeleau, +/- Robins
2025-2026: Smith, 2024 top-3 pick, Musty +/- Lund
2026-2027: 2025 top-3 pick and 2-3 of Pittsburgh 2024 1st, NJ 2024 1st (optimistic), Havelid, Cagnoni, Halttunen

 

[Cas]

I think that's a bit pessimistic...I'd think it's a bit more like this;
2023-2024: Eklund, Thrun
2024-2025: Bystedt, Muk, Gushchin/Bordeleau, +/- Robins
2025-2026: Smith, 2024 top-3 pick, Musty +/- Lund
2026-2027: 2025 top-3 pick and 2-3 of Pittsburgh 2024 1st, NJ 2024 1st (optimistic), Havelid, Cagnoni, Halttunen

Remember, my timeline is basically "you're making the team out of camp" or very nearly.

I don't think Bystedt makes the Sharks out of camp for 24-25 - I think he will need half a year or more in the AHL.

I expect Musty spends two years in juniors and part of a year in the AHL - same with Halttunen.

The 2024 first round pick will probably need two years, whoever they are, before solidifying themselves in the Sharks lineup.

Our other high 2024 picks probably take two-plus years as well. 2025 is probably on the same timeline, so a year later. Maybe we get really lucky and they develop a bit quicker.

I actually think I'm being a little optimistic.

 

[DG93]

Remember, my timeline is basically "you're making the team out of camp" or very nearly.

I don't think Bystedt makes the Sharks out of camp for 24-25 - I think he will need half a year or more in the AHL.

I expect Musty spends two years in juniors and part of a year in the AHL - same with Halttunen.

The 2024 first round pick will probably need two years, whoever they are, before solidifying themselves in the Sharks lineup.

Our other high 2024 picks probably take two-plus years as well. 2025 is probably on the same timeline, so a year later. Maybe we get really lucky and they develop a bit quicker.

I actually think I'm being a little optimistic.

Ah, I thought you meant any semi-significant NHL experience. I'd adjust a couple timelines then

 

[gaucholoco3]

It will be hard to keep Smitt and Celebrini in college another year after they finish 1st and 2nd for the Hobey Baker.

 

[Mafoofoo]

You could be Douglas Murray on Jumbo’s wing and Murrays breakin 50 pts…Easy..

You would 100% need Marleau on that line to balance the vibes out when Murray went Viking and Jumbo turned into angry Joe

 

[landshark]

You would 100% need Marleau on that line to balance the vibes out when Murray went Viking and Jumbo turned into angry Joe

Can you imagine going into the corner as a D-man with Murray fore checking?

"Here you are, sir. This is the puck you were looking for. Thank you, come again."

 

[Barrie22]

Can you imagine going into the corner as a D-man with Murray fore checking?

"Here you are, sir. This is the puck you were looking for. Thank you, come again."

Am i just remembering wrong, or didn't one preseason game he actually did do a fore check?

 

[Sysreq]

I think a lot of people are missing the point when it comes to these projections. The odds of multiple players making the jump to the NHL in a single year is low, much less 3-4 like some people are speculating. It’s really easy to pencil these guys in but honestly the majority won’t make the cut. Even supposed sure things like Eklund still have a ways to go. For guys like Eklund and Muk, we still don’t know how their game will translate to the smaller ice. Guys like Bords haven’t found that next level yet. Never mind dudes like Musty and Smith who are still just kids. If our current prospect pool turns out 1 top-4 D, 1 top-6 forward and 1 mid-6 center I would consider that “winning”.

 

[landshark]

Am i just remembering wrong, or didn't one preseason game he actually did do a fore check?

He had a hat trick in a preseason game. So that checks out.

In the pre-season game of September 26, 2009, Murray performed a hat trick, scoring 3 even strength goals against the Anaheim Ducks, leading to the 6–0 shutout victory, though it was unofficial due to it being in the pre-season. If it had been in the regular season, it would have been his first and only career NHL hat trick.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think a lot of people are missing the point when it comes to these projections. The odds of multiple players making the jump to the NHL in a single year is low, much less 3-4 like some people are speculating. It’s really easy to pencil these guys in but honestly the majority won’t make the cut. Even supposed sure things like Eklund still have a ways to go. For guys like Eklund and Muk, we still don’t know how their game will translate to the smaller ice. Guys like Bords haven’t found that next level yet. Never mind dudes like Musty and Smith who are still just kids.

Recall a couple of years back people were pencilling in Chmelevski as the third-line center, backing up Dylan Gambrell. I'm sure ten years back those people would have expected Konrad Abeltshauser to be a veteran presence on the blueline right now.

If our current prospect pool turns out 1 top-4 D, 1 top-6 forward and 1 mid-6 center I would consider that “winning”.

Although this is probably too pessimistic. Just based on draft position, I'd be surprised if Eklund and Smith don't at least develop into top-six forwards; based on his production I'd guess Mukhamadullin is a probable top-4 player as well.

From the rest of the group, the Lunds/Mustys/Bystedt/Havelid/Furlong...yes, I'd agree with your cautious take.

 

[stator]

I'm sure ten years back those people would have expected Konrad Abeltshauser to be a veteran presence on the blueline right now.

Sharks bypassed Mark Stone to pick Abeltshauser. I'll admit I didn't anything about Stone back then, but the Sharks are suppose to know better. Did Abeltshauser play a NHL game while on the Blues team?

 

[Sendhelplease]

Sharks bypassed Mark Stone to pick Abeltshauser. I'll admit I didn't anything about Stone back then, but the Sharks are suppose to know better. Did Abeltshauser play a NHL game while on the Blues team?

Mark Stone was drafted 178th. No one had any idea he'd turn out to be this good. I can understand criticizing a team for drafting one player over another if it is early in the draft and both players are expected to go early but this just seems silly.

 

[stator]

Mark Stone was drafted 178th. No one had any idea he'd turn out to be this good. I can understand criticizing a team for drafting one player over another if it is early in the draft and both players are expected to go early but this just seems silly.

Guess who drafted Stone with another team's pick?

 

[Barrie22]

Stone was lucky he even got drafted at all with his stats in the WHL, when he was drafted he had 67 points in 95 games over 2 full seasons. It was not until after he got drafted did he break out with 106 in 71.

 

[mogambomoroo]

I think a lot of people are missing the point when it comes to these projections. The odds of multiple players making the jump to the NHL in a single year is low, much less 3-4 like some people are speculating. It’s really easy to pencil these guys in but honestly the majority won’t make the cut. Even supposed sure things like Eklund still have a ways to go. For guys like Eklund and Muk, we still don’t know how their game will translate to the smaller ice. Guys like Bords haven’t found that next level yet. Never mind dudes like Musty and Smith who are still just kids. If our current prospect pool turns out 1 top-4 D, 1 top-6 forward and 1 mid-6 center I would consider that “winning”.

I used to be overly optimistic with Sharks prospects, maybe just because Sharks were bad and I had blind hope for all the prospects in our pool (Coe was at one point in my 1st line projections haha) and there certainly nothing else to cheer for.

This year when we drafted couple of even better prospects, I've realised the brutal competition for NHL spots (if you want to be a good team that is). I'm not even on the Bordeleau train as much as I used to, after Bystedt is making a point to actually take his spot as a future 2C or 3C. It's true that this is the hardest hockey league to make it, and it should be challenging.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

A guy like Guschin will stick because he plays both ends of the ice. Bordeleau will need to get on board if he hopes to stick around.

 

[tiburon12]

All of this rookie talk is making me think:

What is the average number of rookies on a team during opening lineup?

What is the average number of rookies per team to get 20+ games a year in their first full season? (so like excluding "rookie seasons" where guys turn pro or come over from Europe in March)

What if we just look at the numbers for rebuilding teams? How many draft picks (on average) make it 100 games?

If we can answer these that should give us better scope into the number of draftees we should expect to make it.

 

[Barrie22]

All of this rookie talk is making me think:

What is the average number of rookies on a team during opening lineup?

What is the average number of rookies per team to get 20+ games a year in their first full season? (so like excluding "rookie seasons" where guys turn pro or come over from Europe in March)

What if we just look at the numbers for rebuilding teams? How many draft picks (on average) make it 100 games?

If we can answer these that should give us better scope into the number of draftees we should expect to make it.

66% of 1st round picks play 100 games in a career.
26% round 2
17% round 3
14% round 4
8% round 5
9% round 6 (lol)
7% round 7.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Just watched Finnish morning news and there was a title saying that Joonas Donskoi has officially retired as hockey player... It's sad to see him retire so young because of concussion issues. He will always be a Sharks fan favorite for probably one of the most legendary OT goals ever in the SC finals in 2016. He still has a lot of great years ahead as young man, hopefully he can find happiness doing something else than playing ice hockey.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

I am grouping them together. I just think the cumulative probability of all of those guys I listed including Bordeleau, Lund, etc. probably adds up to something like 140% i.e. you should expect a grand total of 1 legit NHLer to emerge from that group.

You can't add the probabilities; you have to calculate the joint probability of no one making it. For the joint probability of 0, 1, 2 etc making it, you have to do binomial theorem.

All of these back-of-the-envelope calculation assume each player's chance of making it is independent of the others. If Grier's push to make prospects earn their spot on the team by loading up on proven marginal NHL players increases the chance they hit, then things look better because the chance each hits rises. Of course, this could go the other way...

 

[LilLeeroy]

You can't add the probabilities; you have to calculate the joint probability of no one making it. For the joint probability of 0, 1, 2 etc making it, you have to do binomial theorem.

All of these back-of-the-envelope calculation assume each player's chance of making it is independent of the others. If Grier's push to make prospects earn their spot on the team by loading up on proven marginal NHL players increases the chance they hit, then things look better because the chance each hits rises. Of course, this could go the other way...

Think he just means 1.4 expected NHL players, which you can add.

 

[LadyStanley]

Whether rookies play in the NHL is also determined by where the team is in the development cycle. IOW, a team full of vets may have zero rookies on the roster to start the season. An expansion team may have no rookie prospects ready to play pro.

Sometimes the Sharks have had a token rookie on the roster (poor guy has to foot the bill for Rookie dinner himself, but often the other players will help pay, say the alcohol portion), other times they might have half a dozen. In general, it's been 2-3 newbies/season.

 

[stator]

Mark Stone was drafted 178th. No one had any idea he'd turn out to be this good. I can understand criticizing a team for drafting one player over another if it is early in the draft and both players are expected to go early but this just seems silly.

He was drafted with the original Sharks pick.

 

[tiburon12]

I kinda alluded to it in the the Karlsson thread, but how on-brand, capital S "Sharks" is it that during the team's first rebuild in 20 years the most valuable trade piece they have (Karlsson) has no value because of a f***ing global pandemic-caused flat salary cap.

I know the Flyers are up there, but must be the most cursed franchise