NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART V

[saskytaxi]

stutle sounds like hes going to be flithy. Need him or Lafreniere IMO

 

[saskytaxi]

stutle sounds like hes going to be flithy. Need him or Lafreniere IMO

 

[armani]

stutle sounds like hes going to be flithy. Need him or Lafreniere IMO

Filthy Shuttle?

 

[Sensators]

Very good article. I agree that raymond is being underated by some.

One of those nhl writers had him outside the top 10.

 

[bert]

I want to draft a player who is a star on the ice from day one. None of this learn the game in the minors.

And i want to win the lottery. There is only one player in this draft that fits this description and frankly who cares? The only thing that matters is what the player ends up being.

That is true but not the type of player I want in this draft. By the allstar break I want him to be our most dynamic leading scorer and win the calder in a land slide.

Your expectations are ridiculous and make no sense. You do know they burn a UFA year the sooner they get here. The sens are also going to suck next season to so its essentially a waste. Quinton Byfield likely wont be ready next season but could very well be the best player in the draft but youd rather rush him. Or take a worse prospect because they are NHL ready. The sens are going to have a bunch of exciting young players in the lineup next year no matter who they draft. Formenton, Norris, Brown and Batherson all likely make the team and push for spots.

@JungleBeat Holtz and Quinn while being debatably the two best goal scorers in the draft arent similar stylistically. Holtz is more of a power shooter while Quinn is more dynamic. I dont believe that in the role Quinn had Holtz would have outproduced him. Raymond might have. Holtz playing with Rossi might have been more productive than Quinn with Rossi had Quinn actually played with him. I think you underate Quinn big time. He can create so much offense by himself. I think Holtz game really translates to the NHL level but he is going to need a good set up man to maximize his skillset. I actually think Raymond and Quinn are more similar from a style stand point. Id be very happy if the sens got any of those three players with the second first rounder.

 

[ijif]

Does anyone know where to find OHL goals per game league wide?

I'd like to make a post comparing some scoring, but the OHL was inflated this year (so is claimed by many), so I wanted to get an actual measure of the inflation.

I know I could do it manually, but I was hoping past years were already calculated somewhere.

 

[MatchesMalone]

@JungleBeat Holtz and Quinn while being debatably the two best goal scorers in the draft arent similar stylistically. Holtz is more of a power shooter while Quinn is more dynamic. I dont believe that in the role Quinn had Holtz would have outproduced him. Raymond might have. Holtz playing with Rossi might have been more productive than Quinn with Rossi had Quinn actually played with him. I think you underate Quinn big time. He can create so much offense by himself. I think Holtz game really translates to the NHL level but he is going to need a good set up man to maximize his skillset. I actually think Raymond and Quinn are more similar from a style stand point. Id be very happy if the sens got any of those three players with the second first rounder.

Dude, come on. I know you're a big Quinn fan, but nobody is criticizing Quinn here. Just look at Holtz' numbers from WSIs, international tournaments including World Juniors, SuperElit (most points ever by a U17 until Raymond broke the record), J18Elit (highest p/g ever by a U16), and try to tell me with a straight face that Holtz wouldn't have absolutely f***ing decimated the OHL this year...

People make this critique of Holtz that he's not a line-driver. But a. he drove offense and controlled play a lot more in junior than he did in SHL. Look at the WSI U15s, where he finished ahead of both Byfield and Perfetti in p/g even though they were playing together and he had no teammates close to the same quality. And b. Even if he's not the guy holding on to the puck all the time, he's such an elite goal scorer that he makes playmakers better. You criticize people for being skeptical of Quinn without watching him enough, you should try watching some of Holtz when he was in junior.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Very good article. I agree that raymond is being underated by some.

One of those nhl writers had him outside the top 10.

Yeah I can't for the life of me understand this. The only possible explanation would be his size, and yet these same people still have Rossi and Perfetti higher.

 

[bert]

Dude, come on. I know you're a big Quinn fan, but nobody is criticizing Quinn here. Just look at Holtz' numbers from WSIs, international tournaments including World Juniors, SuperElit (most points ever by a U17 until Raymond broke the record), J18Elit (highest p/g ever by a U16), and try to tell me with a straight face that Holtz wouldn't have absolutely f***ing decimated the OHL this year...

People make this critique of Holtz that he's not a line-driver. But a. he drove offense and controlled play a lot more in junior than he did in SHL. Look at the WSI U15s, where he finished ahead of both Byfield and Perfetti in p/g even though they were playing together and he had no teammates close to the same quality. And b. Even if he's not the guy holding on to the puck all the time, he's such an elite goal scorer that he makes playmakers better. You criticize people for being skeptical of Quinn without watching him enough, you should try watching some of Holtz when he was in junior.

I assume since you quoted my post that you would have read it but.... It doesnt appear that way. Literally suggested Holtz would have been more effective than Quinn in a role on a line with Rossi while I believe Quinn is more effective carrying his own line. Can you please show me where I said that Holtz wouldnt have lit up the league?

Holtz decimated the OHL like Quinn did?... Whats your point? Quinn scored at over a goal per game pace his last 40 games. Lots of people have them in the same range........... Holtz doesnt have the one on one creation and scoring ability like Quinn does, he has a harder shot and is harder on the puck while being a more powerful skater. I have watched him plenty. Bottom line is you underate Quinn, you have Mercer ahead of him that alone should be enough to let anyone know you dont like the player.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Quinn had 16 goals last year. Holtz been running rampant on teams goal scoring wise for multiple years in multiple levels of competition.

This isn't close (relatively speaking).

 

[MatchesMalone]

I assume since you quoted my post that you would have read it but.... It doesnt appear that way. Literally suggested Holtz would have been more effective than Quinn in a role on a line with Rossi while I believe Quinn is more effective carrying his own line. Can you please show me where I said that Holtz wouldnt have lit up the league?

Holtz decimated the OHL like Quinn did?... Whats your point? Quinn scored at over a goal per game pace his last 40 games. Lots of people have them in the same range........... Holtz doesnt have the one on one creation and scoring ability like Quinn does, he has a harder shot and is harder on the puck while being a more powerful skater. I have watched him plenty. Bottom line is you underate Quinn, you have Mercer ahead of him that alone should be enough to let anyone know you dont like the player.

Lol. Not Mercer, anyone but Mercer, heaven forbid. Yeah he sucks, that's why he made Team Canada. Not that I don't like Quinn. Just haven't seen him much. If you can let me know where to access past OHL games for free then I could go ahead and rectify that and make a more informed decision. Unfortunately he's the only player in my top 20 I've seen less than five times. From the handful of games I've seen he looks good, sure, but I like other players better.

My point is you're implying Holtz could have lit up the OHL... if he played with Rossi, not on his own line like Quinn did. And that's just bullshit, Holtz is perfectly capable of creating his own offense at the junior level. He's never been the one to drive play with the puck, but he's so good at getting into scoring positions and shooting that it really doesn't take a genius playmaker to set him up. He can score with anyone, and his playmaking is underrated. Albin Grewe is a good example; look at his SuperElit numbers last year playing with Holtz vs. this year without Holtz.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Thinking of Laferniere and Raymond on the same line is really orgasmic. Extremely.

People really dont know how much Raymond impacts the entire ice. He is so filthy and smart.

Watch this Holtz highlight package. The first 4 goals could literally be made to be for Raymond.

Look at the play Raymond does at 2:43, filthy.

 

[Micklebot]

Does anyone know where to find OHL goals per game league wide?

I'd like to make a post comparing some scoring, but the OHL was inflated this year (so is claimed by many), so I wanted to get an actual measure of the inflation.

I know I could do it manually, but I was hoping past years were already calculated somewhere.

You got me curious enough to check myself, seems like it's been trending up for the last while. I only checked 5 years, and I'm not sure if shootout wins are counted in goals for this...

2019 2020	3.86
2018 2019	3.72
2017 2018	3.54
2016 2017	3.45
2015 2016	3.39

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Man, if im Ottawa, I go ALL in and try to get Rossi too. I'd settle trading up for Mavrik or Zary too, or if he falls Lundell. Try to pick 2 conservative 2nd rounder and try to hit home run with the other 2.

Try to get a top line out of this draft.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Quinn had 16 goals last year. Holtz been running rampant on teams goal scoring wise for multiple years in multiple levels of competition.

This isn't close (relatively speaking).

Rossi had mediocre production (65P/53GP) in the OHL last year at the same age as Holtz is now. Does that mean a team shouldn't consider taking him over Holtz?

That's not a good argument. Massive improvement from year-to-year for both Rossi and Quinn matters and their production this year as 18YR olds is far more important in projecting their potential than what they did as 17YR olds.

 

[ijif]

I did some adjustments, and this is what I ended up with. I just did the top prospects that are talked about here the most. I tried to adjust for every player as if they played 20 minutes a game in the OHL this year. Since some players played more than 20 minutes a game or played more than 60 games, some players did lose points in the adjustment.

Projected Stat lines	GP	G	A	PTS
A. Lafreniere	60	38	83	121
A. Holtz	60	68	52	120
M. Rossi	60	38	80	118
T. Stutzle	60	22	87	109
Q. Byfield	60	42	66	108
C. Perfetti	60	36	72	108
L. Raymond	60	40	59	99
N. Gunler	60	29	66	95
A. Lundell	60	31	55	86
R. Amirov	60	39	47	86
J. Quinn	60	48	40	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Cosmix]

Another 2020 mock draft scenario from Larry Fisher. https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-4/
This one is pretty fantastic for the Sens.
1. Lafreniere
2. Byfield
21. Askarov

Now I never imagined taking a goalie in the 1st. I figured he'd be gone by 21 but he will look pretty juicy if he's still there at 21... Sens would be the envy of the hockey world.

That would be excellent. I could not think of a better result.

 

[Micklebot]

I did some adjustments, and this is what I ended up with. I just did the top prospects that are talked about here the most. I tried to adjust for every player as if they played 20 minutes a game in the OHL this year. Since some players played more than 20 minutes a game or played more than 60 games, some players did lose points in the adjustment.

Projected Stat lines	GP	G	A	PTS
A. Lafreniere	60	38	83	121
A. Holtz	60	68	52	120
M. Rossi	60	38	80	118
T. Stutzle	60	22	87	109
Q. Byfield	60	42	66	108
C. Perfetti	60	36	72	108
L. Raymond	60	40	59	99
N. Gunler	60	29	66	95
A. Lundell	60	31	55	86
R. Amirov	60	39	47	86
J. Quinn	60	48	40	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

What are you using to convert the various leagues numbers? I know Hockey Abstract (Vollman) used to do leaugue converion tables to get an idea of NHL production, are you using something similar to that?

 

[Sweatred]

I did some adjustments, and this is what I ended up with. I just did the top prospects that are talked about here the most. I tried to adjust for every player as if they played 20 minutes a game in the OHL this year. Since some players played more than 20 minutes a game or played more than 60 games, some players did lose points in the adjustment.

Projected Stat lines	GP	G	A	PTS
A. Lafreniere	60	38	83	121
A. Holtz	60	68	52	120
M. Rossi	60	38	80	118
T. Stutzle	60	22	87	109
Q. Byfield	60	42	66	108
C. Perfetti	60	36	72	108
L. Raymond	60	40	59	99
N. Gunler	60	29	66	95
A. Lundell	60	31	55	86
R. Amirov	60	39	47	86
J. Quinn	60	48	40	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is neat... I would love to see some something that attempted to account or predict stats at 18.0 years old.

It wouldn’t be perfect but I would be neat to see 18.0 Laf vs 18.0 Byfield vs 18.0 Quinn types.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I did some adjustments, and this is what I ended up with. I just did the top prospects that are talked about here the most. I tried to adjust for every player as if they played 20 minutes a game in the OHL this year. Since some players played more than 20 minutes a game or played more than 60 games, some players did lose points in the adjustment.

Projected Stat lines	GP	G	A	PTS
A. Lafreniere	60	38	83	121
A. Holtz	60	68	52	120
M. Rossi	60	38	80	118
T. Stutzle	60	22	87	109
Q. Byfield	60	42	66	108
C. Perfetti	60	36	72	108
L. Raymond	60	40	59	99
N. Gunler	60	29	66	95
A. Lundell	60	31	55	86
R. Amirov	60	39	47	86
J. Quinn	60	48	40	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is awesome. Major props for that man. I have my own rough league quality translations but no doubt whatever you're using is more meticulously calculated. I'm assuming you used SHL for Raymond and MHL for Amirov? Do you have the data available to show Raymond's SuperElit translation and Amirov's VHL (perhaps regular season + playoffs?) translation?

 

[saskytaxi]

Sens are going to be legit baby.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I did some adjustments, and this is what I ended up with. I just did the top prospects that are talked about here the most. I tried to adjust for every player as if they played 20 minutes a game in the OHL this year. Since some players played more than 20 minutes a game or played more than 60 games, some players did lose points in the adjustment.

Projected Stat lines	GP	G	A	PTS
A. Lafreniere	60	38	83	121
A. Holtz	60	68	52	120
M. Rossi	60	38	80	118
T. Stutzle	60	22	87	109
Q. Byfield	60	42	66	108
C. Perfetti	60	36	72	108
L. Raymond	60	40	59	99
N. Gunler	60	29	66	95
A. Lundell	60	31	55	86
R. Amirov	60	39	47	86
J. Quinn	60	48	40	83

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'd like an example of the basic raw data and the formula and the result just for lets say the top 3. 3 different leagues .. and factors.
Is there a factor for time as well as pts or does the factor for pts have the time encapsulated... So looking at NHL equivalency numbers for 2 leagues as an example .. from.. the chart below; How do you equivalence the time or do you need to?
I am not giving you full marks unless you show your work.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I'd like an example of the basic raw data and the formula and the result just for lets say the top 3. 3 different leagues .. and factors.
Is there a factor for time as well as pts or does the factor for pts have the time encapsulated... So looking at NHL equivalency numbers for 2 leagues as an example .. from.. the chart below; How do you equivalence the time or do you need to?

Lol, I'd kind of like to hear an explanation for this too. Trying to conceptualize accounting for the differences in time on ice just makes my head hurt. Feels like a chicken/egg thing to me.

Also, the NCHC is on the same level as Liiga or NLA? That seems really hard to swallow.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Rossi had mediocre production (65P/53GP) in the OHL last year at the same age as Holtz is now. Does that mean a team shouldn't consider taking him over Holtz?

That's not a good argument. Massive improvement from year-to-year for both Rossi and Quinn matters and their production this year as 18YR olds is far more important in projecting their potential than what they did as 17YR olds.

I agree, but my point is Holtz is actually proven in the past AND he's still ahead of Quinn off this year as well, you're making it seem like Holtz didnt also have a stellar year. That was my point, killer production in the past + present >>>>>>> just the present.

It's not a debate.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Lol, I'd kind of like to hear an explanation for this too. Trying to conceptualize accounting for the differences in time on ice just makes my head hurt. Feels like a chicken/egg thing to me.

Also, the NCHC is on the same level as Liiga or NLA? That seems really hard to swallow.

Manny Elk posted this one



He has a bunch more tweeted in that thread