NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART V

[jhutter]

I have a pretty hard time believing the Czech league is stronger than the DEL.

 

[Micklebot]

I have a pretty hard time believing the Czech league is stronger than the DEL.

I wonder if there is a systemic bias against some leagues because not are more willing to give fringe guys from certain leagues a shot while other leagues might only see true outlier talent make the jump. Basically a selection bias for the data caused by nhl teams being more comfortable with guys from certain leagues.

 

[JungleBeat]

Rossi had mediocre production (65P/53GP) in the OHL last year at the same age as Holtz is now. Does that mean a team shouldn't consider taking him over Holtz?

That's not a good argument. Massive improvement from year-to-year for both Rossi and Quinn matters and their production this year as 18YR olds is far more important in projecting their potential than what they did as 17YR olds.

Being above ppg in your Rookie season in the OHL as a draft -1 player is not mediocre regardless if he’s one of the older players in the draft.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I wonder if there is a systemic bias against some leagues because not are more willing to give fringe guys from certain leagues a shot while other leagues might only see true outlier talent make the jump. Basically a selection bias for the data caused by nhl teams being more comfortable with guys from certain leagues.

So info... I have no idea how Manny or anyone else came up with their numbers and some of the leagues in Mannys' lists are hard to distinquish.
But it does seem at the outset of NHL equivalency the strength of the league is calculated by taking players that played Y1 in the feeder league and Y2 in the NHL and determining the factor based on pts/game Quality of League = PPG Nhl Y2 / PPG other league Y2. Not sure about the number of samples and if its just an average from there. So you could get more good scoring players from one league making the NHL resulting in a higher Quality of League number.

This article explains it http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/League_Equivalencies.pdf

 

[MatchesMalone]

I have a pretty hard time believing the Czech league is stronger than the DEL.

I wonder if there is a systemic bias against some leagues because not are more willing to give fringe guys from certain leagues a shot while other leagues might only see true outlier talent make the jump. Basically a selection bias for the data caused by nhl teams being more comfortable with guys from certain leagues.

Czech Extraliga and DEL are close, and difficult to compare, but I'd give the edge to Extraliga for sure.

If you skim through top scorers from both leagues, Extraliga has a lot of players who were regulars but depth players in top tier leagues like KHL and SHL. DEL has very few players with recent history in such high quality leagues, but a bunch of players who were stars in weaker leagues like France, Allsvenskan or ECHL.

 

[ijif]

This is how I did the adjustments. It is not perfect, but I don't think any step is outlandish. I used Byron Bader's NHLe model. I think it is the best one. The numbers seem to make the most sense. I liked Manny's model for his value stat more than the point metrics. The model gives Raymond an NHLe score of 20. I'll just show a comparison between Raymond and Byfield.

Anyway, I'll just use Raymond as an example of what I did.
Raymond played 9.48 minutes per game over 33 games (312.84 total TOI). That works out to 1.92 points per 60 minutes.
If he had played 20 minutes per game in the SHL, he would have played an extra 347.16 minutes. Many will say if he plays more minutes, his rate of scoring will go down, so let's knock his rate down 25%. That means he scores at a 1.44 rate for the extra 347.16 minutes. That works out to 8 extra points, so if he played 20 minutes a game in the SHL, Raymond would probably have scored around 18 points in 33 games. That is a 0.55 ppg rate. Nicklas Backstrom scored at a 0.56 per game rate in the SHL, and his NHLe score was 37. Arthur Kaliyev had an NHLe score of 37 last year in the OHL; however, scoring is boosted by roughly 10%, so we should boost the ppg of Kaliyev by 10%, and multiply that number by 60. If you do that, you would get Raymond scoring 100 points. I have 99 on the chart because I didn't use Kaliyev's ppg for a translation, so the slight changes in decimals can alter the numbers by 1. I just used the first comparable I could find, so it is nothing intentional. 40% of Raymond's points this year were goals, and 40% of 100 is 40, so 40G 60A 100PTS.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Being above ppg in your Rookie season in the OHL as a draft -1 player is not mediocre regardless if he’s one of the older players in the draft.

It's mediocre if you're 5'9 and aren't a high-end skater. Rossi probably would have went late 1st/early 2nd with that kind of production if he was born September 14 instead of September 23rd.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I agree, but my point is Holtz is actually proven in the past AND he's still ahead of Quinn off this year as well, you're making it seem like Holtz didnt also have a stellar year. That was my point, killer production in the past + present >>>>>>> just the present.

It's not a debate.

I agree that Holtz' production has been better this year, and his production as a 16YR old in the Superelit is arguably better than Quinn's production as an 18YR old in the OHL. There's no question that he's been the better producer throughout their junior careers thus far. I have Holtz above Quinn on my list largely for that reason, but I do think Quinn is more dynamic with slightly better tools.

But all things being equal, give me an exponential growth curve over a linear growth curve any day of the week. For example, if a player goes from 10 goals to 50 goals in a year, that's more attractive to me than a player going from 30 goals to 50 goals, despite the greater past production with the second player.

 

[JungleBeat]

It's mediocre if you're 5'9 and aren't a high-end skater. Rossi probably would have went late 1st/early 2nd with that kind of production if he was born September 14 instead of September 23rd.

Still not mediocre production as you stated you in your last post. Sure, you can say that he had some question marks because of skating but that doesn’t mean it was mediocre. Mediocre production would be Quinn in the OHL last year as a 17 year old.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Still not mediocre production as you stated you in your last post. Sure, you can say that he had some question marks because of skating but that doesn’t mean it was mediocre. Mediocre production would be Quinn in the OHL last year as a 17 year old.

Would you rather I had said disappointing production? Because 65 points in 53 games as a small guy with questionable skating (especially last year) typically doesn't get you drafted anywhere close to the top 10.

Point I was making is that Rossi's production as an 18YR old matters a heck of a lot more than his 17YR old production. His 17YR old production may not even get him drafted in the 1st round, while his 18YR old production makes him a top 5-10 pick a year later, and deservedly so.

 

[JungleBeat]

Would you rather I had said disappointing production? Because 65 points in 53 games as a small guy with questionable skating (especially last year) typically doesn't get you drafted anywhere close to the top 10.

Point I was making is that Rossi's production as an 18YR old matters a heck of a lot more than his 17YR old production. His 17YR old production may not even get him drafted in the 1st round, while his 18YR old production makes him a top 5-10 pick a year later, and deservedly so.

I agree that your draft year matters much more but when a players body of work leading up to the draft should be taken into account. That’s why I’m sceptical of drafting Quinn; his bad production last year as a 17 year old raises a red flag, coupled that with him playing on the second line this season getting second tier opposition to Rossi and being the trigger man on a stacked teams power play should all be taken into account into understanding why his production went up.

Jan Mysak 2019-2020 First 22 games: 15G 25 points
Jack Quinn 2019-2020 First 22 games: 12G 27 points
Mysak is a year younger.


That’s with Mysak being a rookie into the OHL and coming into the new year on North American ice when the season is on full swing too.

 

[JungleBeat]

Delete double post.

 

[bert]

Lol. Not Mercer, anyone but Mercer, heaven forbid. Yeah he sucks, that's why he made Team Canada. Not that I don't like Quinn. Just haven't seen him much. If you can let me know where to access past OHL games for free then I could go ahead and rectify that and make a more informed decision. Unfortunately he's the only player in my top 20 I've seen less than five times. From the handful of games I've seen he looks good, sure, but I like other players better.

My point is you're implying Holtz could have lit up the OHL... if he played with Rossi, not on his own line like Quinn did. And that's just bullshit, Holtz is perfectly capable of creating his own offense at the junior level. He's never been the one to drive play with the puck, but he's so good at getting into scoring positions and shooting that it really doesn't take a genius playmaker to set him up. He can score with anyone, and his playmaking is underrated. Albin Grewe is a good example; look at his SuperElit numbers last year playing with Holtz vs. this year without Holtz.

I am honestly in disbelief of this post

I never said that Holtz wouldnt light up the OHL in either role, not once. You keep repeating it and then keep yelling bullshit..... I was trying to compliment the player based on his skillset. I literally said that Holtz would be more effective in a different type of role on his line as the finisher you have issue with that? But then somehow you follow that comment up with the bolded portion. Holtz is terrific when he has a great playmaker with him and he doesnt drive the play while having the puck, your very own words. Thats exactly what I said....

Quinn is terrific at driving the play when he has the puck.

In the NHL goal scorers like Holtz need and thrive with a good centerman. In conclusion no I dont think a player that needs someone to set him up would carry his line as well as a player that doesnt need it. Using simple logic it would suggest that this is the case almost all the time. The only way that it isnt is if Holtz was a far superior prospect and player and he simply isnt, he doesnt have the one on one scoring ability of Quinn and he isnt as good a defensive player. He has a better motor, heavier shot and potentially better pro scoring instincts. They are very similar level prospects, obviously you dont think so but the rest of the educated hockey world appears to.

 

[bert]

I agree that your draft year matters much more but when a players body of work leading up to the draft should be taken into account. That’s why I’m sceptical of drafting Quinn; his bad production last year as a 17 year old raises a red flag, coupled that with him playing on the second line this season getting second tier opposition to Rossi and being the trigger man on a stacked teams power play should all be taken into account into understanding why his production went up.

Jan Mysak ( 1 year younger) First 22 games this season: 15G 25 points
Jack Quinn First 22 games: 12G 27 points

That’s with Mysak being a rookie into the OHL and coming into the new year on North American ice when the season is on full swing too.

I am sorry but this is just not an educated position on Quinn. You have to do more than simply look at production, watching the games certainly helps too. Quinn started off the season at 5'9 as a rookie at 17 year olds on the 4th line on a stacked team. He got very little ice time but still displayed highlite real goal scoring ability. Given his role, his physical maturity and his ice time his production was fine. He is a late bloomer physically, not every player matures and grows at the same age. I think his situation is more similar to a 17 year old draft if you look at it from how much he has grown and how its only his second season in the league.

Are you holding it against the player for being the trigger man on an elite power play?... He had 34 even strenght goals and didnt play with Rossi... I mean if he had played with Rossi would you have held that against him? Doesnt seem like he can win in your eyes and you are looking for reasons at this point.

Here is a pretty good scouting report and the guy who is doing it raises all the same questions you did, probably worth a watch.

 

[JungleBeat]

I am sorry but this is just not an educated position on Quinn. You have to do more than simply look at production, watching the games certainly helps too. Quinn started off the season at 5'9 as a rookie at 17 year olds on the 4th line on a stacked team. He got very little ice time but still displayed highlite real goal scoring ability. Given his role, his physical maturity and his ice time his production was fine. He is a late bloomer physically, not every player matures and grows at the same age. I think his situation is more similar to a 17 year old draft if you look at it from how much he has grown and how its only his second season in the league.

Are you holding it against the player for being the trigger man on an elite power play?... He had 34 even strenght goals and didnt play with Rossi... I mean if he had played with Rossi would you have held that against him? Doesnt seem like he can win in your eyes and you are looking for reasons at this point.

Here is a pretty good scouting report and the guy who is doing it raises all the same questions you did, probably worth a watch.

I can’t rank him above players just because he played great for 2/3rds of the season. Jan Mysak has a similar start this season with many variable going against him; coming here in January when the season is in full swing, ohl rookie, North American ice, worse team than the 67s etc.

From what I’ve watched he’s not the best goal scorer on his team behind Rossi, and Perfetti/Holtz being better than both.

Marco Rossi: 0.55 Ev goals/game
Jack Quinn: 0.54 Ev goals/game

That’s a negligible difference, but Rossi is a facilitator giving setting up his line mates while Quinn is there to score. That’s my opinion and choosing either as the better goal scorer is fine. It’s really close.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I am honestly in disbelief of this post

I never said that Holtz wouldnt light up the OHL in either role, not once. You keep repeating it and then keep yelling bullshit..... I was trying to compliment the player based on his skillset. I literally said that Holtz would be more effective in a different type of role on his line as the finisher you have issue with that? But then somehow you follow that comment up with the bolded portion. Holtz is terrific when he has a great playmaker with him and he doesnt drive the play while having the puck, your very own words. Thats exactly what I said....

Quinn is terrific at driving the play when he has the puck.

In conclusion no I dont think a player that needs someone to set him up would carry his line as well as a player that doesnt need it. Using simple logic it would suggest that this is the case almost all the time. The only way that it isnt is if Holtz was a far superior prospect and player and he simply isnt, he doesnt have the one on one scoring ability of Quinn and he isnt as good a defensive player. He has a better motor, heavier shot and potentially better pro scoring instincts. They are very similar level prospects, obviously you dont think so but the rest of the educated hockey world appears to.

Ok first of all, the point you keep missing is I haven't been saying anything about Quinn this whole time. I keep saying I've hardly seen him play. I don't know what you want me to say about him. He looks good from what I've seen. I like Mercer better.

What I was trying to say is Holtz would put up monster numbers in the OHL on any team, with any linemates. You seem to be arguing that he would need an elite playmaker like Rossi to do so.

Secondly, nuance, man. I'm saying Holtz doesn't tend to drive play with the puck. You're saying "he needs someone to set him up" and then you say that we're saying the same thing. We're not. I believe you're off in your evaluation of Holtz. Again, his playmaking is terribly underrated, and he's so much more than a pure shooter. Maybe tomorrow I'll find some clips for you.

Amirov and I think Rossi fall under the same category (although again, I haven't seen nearly as much of Rossi). They can dictate play away from the puck by skating good routes and getting into dangerous areas, they don't need the puck on their stick long to make good things happen, they're good give-and-go players. This is a very NHL-translatable quality; players who always have the puck in junior might not always have it in the NHL so they have to know how to play away from the puck.

But as with Amirov or Rossi, Holtz was very dynamic with the puck in short bursts at the junior level. From what I've seen I'd say he's actually more dangerous than either of those players in one-on-one situations. He's maybe not as deceptive a skater but he's got some vicious dekes in his arsenal.

Who are some good NHL examples? Maybe Brayden Point or David Pastrnak. I'd like to see a study on who creates the most offense per amount of time with the puck on their stick.

Oh, one more thing, I never yelled "bullshit". I spoke it in a very calm, reserved manner. If only you'd heard the tone I said it this debate wouldn't have got so heated.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Delete

 

[DrSense]

For what it's worth, comparing J20 and CHL scoring in general, is pretty reasonable. It's actually a bit more defensive in the J20, certainly lower scoring than in the OHL, where all scoring was up considerably this year. Not that this gives you a direct comparison between the players, but history has shown this to be a pretty reasonable comparison. From a pure production perspective, Hotlz is pretty much second to no one in the goal scoring department. In the J20, he was at a 50-60 goal pace LAST year in his D-1 if they played as many games as the CHL, and this year he had 7 goals in just 3 J20 games before they said, enough is enough, and put him with men where he belongs for the rest of the year. He has also produced as an underager at Hlinka and then again this year at WJC. I for one think he is being under-rated and wouldn't be shocked to see him go between 4-6. If we find out the Sens covet him by taking him with their 2nd first rounder, I'll be pretty quick to jump on the bandwagon, although that's pretty much true of any of the guys in the top 10 to be honest.

 

[Micklebot]

If we find out the Sens covet him by taking him with their 2nd first rounder, I'll be pretty quick to jump on the bandwagon, although that's pretty much true of any of the guys in the top 10 to be honest.

Once you get past the top 3 guys imo, there's a solid argument for taking any of the next 6 or so guys at 4OA.

Raymond, Holtz, Rossi, Drysdale are all intriguing prospects, as are Lundell and Perfetti. Sanderson Zary and Quinn are pretty interesting options too and could sneak into that group (perhaps not at 4th, but not far behind).

I really don't think I'll have any issues with grabbing any of those guys despite having a preference.

 

[DrSense]

Once you get past the top 3 guys imo, there's a solid argument for taking any of the next 6 or so guys at 4OA.

Raymond, Holtz, Rossi, Drysdale are all intriguing prospects, as are Lundell and Perfetti. Sanderson Zary and Quinn are pretty interesting options too and could sneak into that group (perhaps not at 4th, but not far behind).

I really don't think I'll have any issues with grabbing any of those guys despite having a preference.

The thing, the Sens could covet a guy like Drysdale ahead of Stuzle. or even someone else. They've shown their not afraid to go against the grain. Last year Thomson was rated in the 2nd round by many. When it comes to top 10 picks, the year before Tkachuk was generally ranked below Zadina by most, and was even rated in the 7-9 range by several publications (although a few had him ahead of Zadina). Going to back to the Zbad pick, pretty much everyone had Couturier ahead of Zibanejad. Dorion and crew go for their guys, the rankings be damned.

All I'm saying is don't be surprised if the Sens "go off the board" at least a little bit with their picks. It probably won't be a Blake Wheeler shocker, but at least one of those first two picks will probably surprise us. I know I'll be braced for it.

 

[Micklebot]

The thing, the Sens could covet a guy like Drysdale ahead of Stuzle. or even someone else. They've shown their not afraid to go against the grain. Last year Thomson was rated in the 2nd round by many. When it comes to top 10 picks, the year before Tkachuk was generally ranked below Zadina by most, and was even rated in the 7-9 range by several publications (although a few had him ahead of Zadina). Going to back to the Zbad pick, pretty much everyone had Couturier ahead of Zibanejad. Dorion and crew go for their guys, the rankings be damned.

All I'm saying is don't be surprised if the Sens "go off the board" at least a little bit with their picks. It probably won't be a Blake Wheeler shocker, but at least one of those first two picks will probably surprise us. I know I'll be braced for it.

Ok, so first, I think going off the board at 19th OA is very different than going off the board in the top 5 to top 10.

Second, I don't think it's at all fair to say Tkachuk was generally ranked below Zadina by most, they were pretty much neck and neck outside some of the blogger rankings. Regardless, we certainly didn't go against the grain or reach on Tkachuk, he was seen very much as a player in play at that spot.

Tkachuk Ranked #4 by ISS Zadina 3rd
Tkachuk Ranked #4 by Future Considerations Zadina 3rd
Tkachuk Ranked #4 by McKeen's Hockey Zadina 3rd

Tkachuk Ranked #3 by Hockeyprospect.com Zadina 4th
Tkachuk Ranked #3 by TSN/McKenzie Zadina 4th
Tkachuk Ranked #2 by NHL Central Scouting NA Zadina 3rd

In the end, a lot will depend on where the picks land. If we're drafting in the 3-5 range, I don't expect any big surprises. If we draft in the 6 or 7 spots, things could get interesting. I think there is a chance guys like Quinn, Zary, and Sanderson could go ahead of Lundell or Perfetti, for example.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

If this influences your thinking on Holtz.. I doubt you'd be moving him up your list

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Imagine the skating of this team if the draft goes like this for us:

2- Byfield
3- Stutzle
17th pick - Jarvis
32- Foudy

Added to a team of Formenton, Norris, Chabot, Duclair, Braanstrom & Woalanin.

 

[ijif]

Once you get past the top 3 guys imo, there's a solid argument for taking any of the next 6 or so guys at 4OA.

Raymond, Holtz, Rossi, Drysdale are all intriguing prospects, as are Lundell and Perfetti. Sanderson Zary and Quinn are pretty interesting options too and could sneak into that group (perhaps not at 4th, but not far behind).

I really don't think I'll have any issues with grabbing any of those guys despite having a preference.

I'd be pretty upset if we reached for Zary.