NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART V

[JungleBeat]

Thats why you need to watch the games and not only look at the stat line. If you think Rossi is the better goal scorer you really havent been watching. Rossi played with much better linemates all season long too. Based on your response it appears nothing I wrote has been taken into account. Quinn has been good for two seasons not just 2/3rds of one. I didnt say that you should rank him ahead of those players, but you are not close to giving an accurate take on the player. He is WAY better than you make it seem. His two way game is one of the best in the draft. It honestly appears that you didnt even take the time to watch the scouting report.

Go right ahead and have Mysak ahead of him, were all entitled to our opinions but your argument for him being better has tons of holes in it along with ignoring all the facts I presented. He played with Kaliyev, if you think playing with a rotating 16 year old and Mitch Hoelscher is an advantage than so be it. Also coming from the WJC to the OHL is not a hard transition the pace of play is way slower and there is way more time and space.

That’s fine. You can hold that opinion I just don’t agree with it. I’d take Mysak who’s the better skater, two-way player and is almost a full year younger.

 

[Daffy]

f*** I hope we can get Jack Quinn. He's gonna be a beast.

 

[alfstheman]

f*** I hope we can get Jack Quinn. He's gonna be a beast.

How would that happen? We arent picking Quinn 1-6. and he wont be there at 21st. only way is if we trade up the islanders pick to around 10 and it would cost alot to move up that much. dont see it happening

 

[MatchesMalone]

How would that happen? We arent picking Quinn 1-6. and he wont be there at 21st. only way is if we trade up the islanders pick to around 10 and it would cost alot to move up that much. dont see it happening

... you could trade up or you could trade ____?

 

[JD1]

You guys talk a lot about birthdays and where they fall in the year. The NHL draft cut off date is September 15. The cutoff date for minor hockey growing up is December 31. Kids born between Sept 15 and December 31 are survivors. They were at a disadvantage from the day they first put on skates. The later in that timeline the bigger the disadvantage. Just getting to the point of being a drafted is a huge statistical victory as those kids plated against bigger, stronger older kids their entire career. And in relatively short order that advantage will disappear.

There's a ton of stuff that's been written about it, like this

Study suggests NHL has bias in favour of players born earlier in the year

And career stats by birth month like this

NHL Totals by Birth Month - Career Stats

These kids born between Sept 15 and Dec 31 fought tooth and nail against bigger older kids all the way thru the system. Just by virtue of the fact that they made it this far they're winners. What is statistically more likely to happen is the kids born Sept 15 to Dec 31 that actually get to the point of being drafted will succeed more frequently than those born between January and March. The January to March kids arrive in their draft year having had an advantage their entire career.

Eventually as young men, the age related advantages disappear. And kids that have always had that advantage are more prone to struggle when they no longer have it.

Statistically if you were born Sept 15 to Dec 31, you are less likely to ever get drafted, more likely to be an nhl player if you do. In this article here, scroll down a little and read the results tab.

Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft

Statistically if you really want to be successful in drafting, the data overwhelming suggests that you should draft kids born in the last quarter.

 

[DrSense]

You guys talk a lot about birthdays and where they fall in the year. The NHL draft cut off date is September 15. The cutoff date for minor hockey growing up is December 31. Kids born between Sept 15 and December 31 are survivors. They were at a disadvantage from the day they first put on skates. The later in that timeline the bigger the disadvantage. Just getting to the point of being a drafted is a huge statistical victory as those kids plated against bigger, stronger older kids their entire career. And in relatively short order that advantage will disappear.

There's a ton of stuff that's been written about it, like this

Study suggests NHL has bias in favour of players born earlier in the year

And career stats by birth month like this

NHL Totals by Birth Month - Career Stats

These kids born between Sept 15 and Dec 31 fought tooth and nail against bigger older kids all the way thru the system. Just by virtue of the fact that they made it this far they're winners. What is statistically more likely to happen is the kids born Sept 15 to Dec 31 that actually get to the point of being drafted will succeed more frequently than those born between January and March. The January to March kids arrive in their draft year having had an advantage their entire career.

Eventually as young men, the age related advantages disappear. And kids that have always had that advantage are more prone to struggle when they no longer have it.

Statistically if you were born Sept 15 to Dec 31, you are less likely to ever get drafted, more likely to be an nhl player if you do. In this article here, scroll down a little and read the results tab.

Born at the Wrong Time: Selection Bias in the NHL Draft

Statistically if you really want to be successful in drafting, the data overwhelming suggests that you should draft kids born in the last quarter.

That's actually really interesting. I don't think it's really applicable for the October v August scenario we were discussing of comparing kids almost a year younger, given the summer kids didn't really have an advantage over the Fall kids like the Q1 kids did, but it really is interesting when comparing Q4 v Q1. And it makes sense, as I've noted guys like Crosby (august) and Ovechkin (sept) were all later in the year birthdays when reading Freakanomics, which detailed the advantage for the Q1 kids early on. And with three kids in hockey, I have noted in past that the NHL draft is really one of the first times that's these late birthdays have any type of advantage, and by that time, their development is already 90% done. I have two kids that are December birthdays, so at an early age, it's a bit difference versus the January kids.

 

[JD1]

I have two kids that are December birthdays, so at an early age, it's a bit difference versus the January kids.

It's a huge difference. I am born in December. Late December. I was the youngest kid at everything I ever did. I'd be turning 10 and by seasons end there would be 12 year olds on my team. Every other year when i was in the younger birth year of the two year bracket, the physical difference was significant

I am a fair bit closer in age to my younger brother than my older brother but the way the birthdays fell i use to play with my older brother every other year, never with my younger brother. We were born April, December, February. My older brother is 20 months older than me and we'd play sports together every other year and he was a grade ahead of me. I'm about 13.5 months older than my younger brother, i was 2 grades ahead of him and we never played sports together.

 

[bert]

That’s fine. You can hold that opinion I just don’t agree with it. I’d take Mysak who’s the better skater, two-way player and is almost a full year younger.

He certainly isnt the better two way player.

 

[DrSense]

He certainly isnt the better two way player.

A lot of scouts have commented on Mysak's motor and defensive play. In his time with Hamilton he was stealing a lot of pucks and creating quick transitions - you see a lot of them in his different high light packages actually. He also excelled on the PK with 3 SH goals in just 20 games or so. It's not like Quinn is indifferent to playing D and actually took a regular shift on the PK and scored a few shorties himself, but he doesn't really stand out. Mysak's motor also stands out more than Quinn, who is often a bit more sneaky in slipping behind the play and finding open space, more than chasing and getting more of his share of loose pucks. I wouldn't draft Mysak ahead of Quinn, but I do get that side of Mysak's appeal. I'd be really pleased if we landed Mysak with the Isles pick, but don't hold up much hope Quinn will be around at that time in the draft. But there are certainly some Mysak fans out there who think he should be top 10.

 

[Sweatred]

It's a huge difference. I am born in December. Late December. I was the youngest kid at everything I ever did. I'd be turning 10 and by seasons end there would be 12 year olds on my team. Every other year when i was in the younger birth year of the two year bracket, the physical difference was significant

I am a fair bit closer in age to my younger brother than my older brother but the way the birthdays fell i use to play with my older brother every other year, never with my younger brother. We were born April, December, February. My older brother is 20 months older than me and we'd play sports together every other year and he was a grade ahead of me. I'm about 13.5 months older than my younger brother, i was 2 grades ahead of him and we never played sports together.

This is a real thing. Child development changes monthly and it starts as soon as kids are born. Having 11.5 months of growth and development at the age of 4 or 14 is generally worth at least a level in hockey/sports.

 

[bert]

A lot of scouts have commented on Mysak's motor and defensive play. In his time with Hamilton he was stealing a lot of pucks and creating quick transitions - you see a lot of them in his different high light packages actually. He also excelled on the PK with 3 SH goals in just 20 games or so. It's not like Quinn is indifferent to playing D and actually took a regular shift on the PK and scored a few shorties himself, but he doesn't really stand out. Mysak's motor also stands out more than Quinn, who is often a bit more sneaky in slipping behind the play and finding open space, more than chasing and getting more of his share of loose pucks. I wouldn't draft Mysak ahead of Quinn, but I do get that side of Mysak's appeal. I'd be really pleased if we landed Mysak with the Isles pick, but don't hold up much hope Quinn will be around at that time in the draft. But there are certainly some Mysak fans out there who think he should be top 10.

I like Mysak alot he does have a great motor. Certainly better than Quinns. I think he is actually underated and have him higher than most. Id also be happy if the sens picked him with the Islanders pick. However he still isnt the superior two way player, Quinn has an elite hockey IQ his positioning is superb, he is more physical and he steals pucks at a high rate because of his stick and positioning. Great on the PK too. You'll see this in any of his breakdown videos or in scouting reports if you dont take my word for it. There is a reason he is ranked as high as he is, its not just the goal scoring ability he is a well rounded two way winger.

 

[DrSense]

I like Mysak alot he does have a great motor. Certainly better than Quinns. I think he is actually underated and have him higher than most. Id also be happy if the sens picked him with the Islanders pick. However he still isnt the superior two way player, Quinn has an elite hockey IQ his positioning is superb, he is more physical and he steals pucks at a high rate because of his stick and positioning. Great on the PK too. You'll see this in any of his breakdown videos or in scouting reports if you dont take my word for it. There is a reason he is ranked as high as he is, its not just the goal scoring ability he is a well rounded two way winger.

I'm a big Quinn fan and have seen him a ton. I agree with most of what you said, although I haven't noted him being a standout defensively.But we're just quibbling over the small stuff here. He has superior offensive instincts with the puck and tremendous finishing ability, and I too think those skills will translate to the pros.

 

[Sweatred]

I'm a big Quinn fan and have seen him a ton. I agree with most of what you said, although I haven't noted him being a standout defensively.But we're just quibbling over the small stuff here. He has superior offensive instincts with the puck and tremendous finishing ability, and I too think those skills will translate to the pros.

Id prefer Mysak ... mostly because I don’t think Quinn will be available at the NYI pick and I don’t want to touch Quinn with the SJ pick. I also don’t value the difference between the two enough to trade up.

I’d trade up with that pick if one of Holtz, Sanderson, Raymond types fell to the 11/12 spot but not Quinn.

 

[DrSense]

Id prefer Mysak ... mostly because I don’t think Quinn will be available at the NYI pick and I don’t want to touch Quinn with the SJ pick. I also don’t value the difference between the two enough to trade up.

I’d trade up with that pick if one of Holtz, Sanderson, Raymond types fell to the 11/12 spot but not Quinn.

Yeah, I get the value part. I certainly like Mysak with the Isles pick in terms of value, versus Quinn with the Sharks pick. And based on trade value charts, the #6 pick is basically worth 2x the #22 pick - maybe a bit more.

So would you rather have Jack Quinn, or both Jan Mysak and say, Seth Jarvis or Braden Schneider? While I like quality over quantity in general, But in this case I'd take Mysak and Jarvis versus just Quinn straight up, even though I like Quinn more than the other two. It's basically the trade up scenario teams are faced with and typically comes down to where you have the guy valued on your list, relative to the pick in question.

 

[Sweatred]

Yeah, I get the value part. I certainly like Mysak with the Isles pick in terms of value, versus Quinn with the Sharks pick. And based on trade value charts, the #6 pick is basically worth 2x the #22 pick - maybe a bit more.

So would you rather have Jack Quinn, or both Jan Mysak and say, Seth Jarvis or Braden Schneider? While I like quality over quantity in general, But in this case I'd take Mysak and Jarvis versus just Quinn straight up, even though I like Quinn more than the other two. It's basically the trade up scenario teams are faced with and typically comes down to where you have the guy valued on your list, relative to the pick in question.

I’d love to see us add Guhle, Schneider, and Mysak to our org. I’m not sure it is possible with keeping the (OTT & SJ) picks.

However we have seen Schneider/Mysak rated in the 50’s by some rankings. I’d love to walk away with ...

Laf,Byfield/Stutzle, Guhle, Schneider, Mysak. I think 4 of those “may” be possible with our current picks and adding a third pick may get us to move up where needed.

However I think Their will be a run on D and Schneider, Guhle, Sanderson etx may all go before Quinn.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I’d love to see us add Guhle, Schneider, and Mysak to our org. I’m not sure it is possible with keeping the (OTT & SJ) picks.

However we have seen Schneider/Mysak rated in the 50’s by some rankings. I’d love to walk away with ...

Laf,Byfield/Stutzle, Guhle, Schneider, Mysak. I think 4 of those “may” be possible with our current picks and adding a third pick may get us to move up where needed.

However I think Their will be a run on D and Schneider, Guhle, Sanderson etx may all go before Quinn.

New Jersey "May" just feel sorry for us and give us one of their top 10 picks.

Not a chance we get 4 of those guys with 4 of our current picks.

 

[Sweatred]

New Jersey "May" just feel sorry for us and give us one of their top 10 picks.

Not a chance we get 4 of those guys with 4 of our current picks.

I don’t think so either - why I used the word “may”.

my point was I’ve seen rankings with some of those guys late in the second round- I also said I think all the D are gone before Quinn.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Sens 3-in-3: How are the Senators preparing for the draft?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

He certainly isnt the better two way player.

Anymore insights into what we’re thinking?

 

[Daffy]

How would that happen? We arent picking Quinn 1-6. and he wont be there at 21st. only way is if we trade up the islanders pick to around 10 and it would cost alot to move up that much. dont see it happening

Oh we definitely aren't getting him with the Isles pick. He is going top 10. I could easily see us picking Quinn if we pick 5th or 6th.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Oh we definitely aren't getting him with the Isles pick. He is going top 10. I could easily see us picking Quinn if we pick 5th or 6th.

Please no

 

[dumbdick]

Some analysis I've been working on:




EDIT: Added the third chart. This one basically says, "what are your odds of picking a top 20 player from a given draft class, by draft position?". Not surprisingly, these guys are mostly taken in the first round.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Some analysis I've been working on:

Have to see the underlying data and methods, but that's really awesome analysis.

The 3rd round, while not producing as many games played as the 2nd round, producing better players on average than the 2nd is somewhat surprising.

 

[dumbdick]

Have to see the underlying data and methods, but that's really awesome analysis.

The 3rd round, while not producing as many games played as the 2nd round, producing better players on average than the 2nd is somewhat surprising.

Thanks dude. The quality metric is all relative to the draft class and the top players' value/production. The 5% swing in the 3rd round isn't a huge difference compared to the 2nd. Likely driven by a few big stars. I think i might change the quality metric to measure the share of players that become impact players. That way a few big names can't sway the trend. I'll need a good way to define "impact player" though.

 

[RAFI BOMB]