Speculation: 2020 Entry Draft Part II - We have the 10th pick

[ps241]

I know a few guys that made the show and never worked out. Just genetic freaks. Look in tip top shape but don’t go to the gym. Could they have been better? Sure. But to still make it there these days without working out is some kind of accomplishment

That still exists but it’s getting tougher and tough because the bar is getting raised so high on off season training routines even by the top talent.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Wasn’t that the Connor pick?

No. It was Laine.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Well, I'd probably snag Lundell at 10, so if he's still at 13 I would grab him there. Hence why I said obvious fallers.

If Schneider was there at 13 along with Mercer, that would make it very tough. I would have guessed Schneider might be gone by then though.

It is really hard to tell this year - even more so than most years. After the first 3, the rankings jump all over the place. Lundell is ranked between 8 and 16, Schneider from 13 to 34 and Mercer from 12 to 17. Those don't include NHL Central Scouting because they list NA and Europe separately so the numbers don't compare directly to anyone else.

There seems to be a lot of second thoughts from all of these scouting services. The rankings have changed quite a bit in about the last month, long after play stopped.

 

[puck stoppa]

Keep in mind the Broberg factor. There is always a “consensus busting ” surprise pick in the top 10 and this year is ripe for it. Throw in Askarov and we could be looking at a prime faller.

My guess is for sure one of either Rossi or Raymond (just my gut) is there.

Sanderson or Perfetti are the guys I am most hoping to be there but I can’t see Perfetti dropping to 10.

There are lots the 10-20 ranked players that could “easily” be picked in the top 10.

Look no further than last year and Moritz Seider, if a team wants a bigger Dman Guhle and Schneider could sneak into the top 10 too, especially if Drysdale and Sanderson go real early.

 

[ps241]

Look no further than last year and Moritz Seider, if a team wants a bigger Dman Guhle and Schneider could sneak into the top 10 too, especially if Drysdale and Sanderson go real early.

almost every season but it makes complete sense since all teams have full amateur draft departments to generate “their list” based of “their priorities” throw in politics and old school vs new school and shit happens. Nobody will ever forget the mind numbing Sam Morin draft room footage.

A good example is Jets have some major needs ( that is a bad way to draft) and we also lost Buff and people want to get tougher......bad way to draft IMO.

All these guys “if” they make it are 3 seasons out. By the time they are possibly ready to fill the need from three seasons ago it might be gone due to trades and free agents are we could have a much more new gaping hole.

 

[ps241]

Look no further than last year and Moritz Seider, if a team wants a bigger Dman Guhle and Schneider could sneak into the top 10 too, especially if Drysdale and Sanderson go real early.

Either Guhle or Schneider could go before Sanderson or Drysdale. They both have pretty compelling talent stories. They aren’t just big they both have plenty of talent.

 

[Whileee]

If this is the case and it's pretty well known I have a feeling Perfetti is the least likely to slip of the top guys. For some reason I see Holtz as the slipper. I don't even have him in the same tier personally. He is a bit of a one-trick pony but he does that one trick really well. Can't see Drysdale slipping being a righty and highly ranked. Sanderson likely goes top 9 as well. We really have to hope that someone goes off board in the top 9 AND someone takes Askarov to have a hope of getting someone to drop that isn't Holtz IMO. Though I would be very happy with Jarvis.

For me it goes:

1. Laf
--
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
--
4. Raymond
5. Perfetti
6. Sanderson
7. Rossi
--
8. Holtz
9. Drysdale
10. Jarvis
--
11. Zary
12. Guhle
13. Quinn
14. Schneider
15. Mercer

I go back and forth on players around #10.

I like Jarvis, but I think I'd prefer Quinn or maybe Mercer or Lundell at that spot. I think Quinn might be better at translating offense to the NHL, and he is better defensively. Lundell and Mercer might be C at the NHL level, which is a big need and adds value. Also, stylistically I wonder about how Jarvis would fit with Connor and Ehlers. Both of those seem like bigger, faster versions of Jarvis (Jarvis might have better vision than Connor), but I could see them bumping into each other circling in the perimeter of the offensive zone trying to create space. The way I see it, players like Jarvis, Ehlers and Connor exploit open ice really well, whereas players like Quinn and Mercer (and Zary) are better working in tight areas and along the boards. Lundell strikes me as a player that won't break down players one-on-one in tight quarters, but he moves the puck so efficiently that he creates space for his linemates. He reminds me a bit of Bergeron or Stastny (late-career version) in that regard. The advantage of a player like Lundell is that he cleans up the defensive zone and moves the puck up ice better than almost any other draft-eligible player, and the Jets' wingers really need that type of player.

I'm intrigued by Zary. He has terrific offensive skills and plays an intense game. He'd add pizzazz and intensity to the top 6.

The more I think about the draft, the more it seems like the Jets should wait and see if one of their top-ranked prospects falls to them, and if not, explore trading down in the top 15-16, adding another 2nd round pick. I like a number of players that might be available in the 40-50 range.

 

[voyageur]

almost every season but it makes complete sense since all teams have full amateur draft departments to generate “their list” based of “their priorities” throw in politics and old school vs new school and shit happens. Nobody will ever forget the mind numbing Sam Morin draft room footage.

A good example is Jets have some major needs ( that is a bad way to draft) and we also lost Buff and people want to get tougher......bad way to draft IMO.

All these guys “if” they make it are 3 seasons out. By the time they are possibly ready to fill the need from three seasons ago it might be gone due to trades and free agents are we could have a much more new gaping hole.

I don't know seems like Chevy has drafted BPA when he had no BPAs on his team. Then his draft picks started to fill holes on the team, like Gustafsson, like Samberg, who the Jets probably wanted to replace Chiarot internally, instead he replaces Kulikov. Stanley would be in there too, except he hasn't become the project they wanted from him.

I look at the 2018 draft, Zadina was a highly rated pick, both Montreal and Arizona picked centres, because they needed them. Zadina fell to Detroit, and I would say Montreal and Arizona profitted from their choices. I would say that the Jets, if they drafted Lundell, would want him on the Moose next year, and could have him on the Jets the following year, so that they could let Copp walk off the team and have a replacement for him. Now you could argue that the Jets could draft a skilled RW this draft too, and have him replace Laine in 2 years, and that would make sense. Could be a LW too, because Ehlers is a RW if he wants to be. Or a RD, because there's a hole to fill. Drafting a LD would be the only waste in my opinion, unless you want to convert one of your LD to RD, but you wouldn't be able to maximize his potential behind the LD we have.

 

[Whileee]

I don't know seems like Chevy has drafted BPA when he had no BPAs on his team. Then his draft picks started to fill holes on the team, like Gustafsson, like Samberg, who the Jets probably wanted to replace Chiarot internally, instead he replaces Kulikov. Stanley would be in there too, except he hasn't become the project they wanted from him.

I look at the 2018 draft, Zadina was a highly rated pick, both Montreal and Arizona picked centres, because they needed them. Zadina fell to Detroit, and I would say Montreal and Arizona profitted from their choices. I would say that the Jets, if they drafted Lundell, would want him on the Moose next year, and could have him on the Jets the following year, so that they could let Copp walk off the team and have a replacement for him. Now you could argue that the Jets could draft a skilled RW this draft too, and have him replace Laine in 2 years, and that would make sense. Could be a LW too, because Ehlers is a RW if he wants to be. Or a RD, because there's a hole to fill. Drafting a LD would be the only waste in my opinion, unless you want to convert one of your LD to RD, but you wouldn't be able to maximize his potential behind the LD we have.

I think player value / quality is related to position, when comparing C to W. A player that can play C is more valuable and "better" than a forward that can't. So, if you think a prospect is a bona fide C, then that counts extra in terms of quality and value, in my view.

Where I don't see much rationale in selecting based on position is LW vs. RW or LD vs. RD, mainly because most prospects are a few years away from making a roster, and you can't project a depth chart that far ahead, with free agency and trades playing a role in shaping a roster.

 

[Teemusalami204]

As long as he isn’t small like ehlers, scared to get hit like Connor and plays small like Morrissey I will be happy with this pick.

 

[Daximus]

I go back and forth on players around #10.

I like Jarvis, but I think I'd prefer Quinn or maybe Mercer or Lundell at that spot. I think Quinn might be better at translating offense to the NHL, and he is better defensively. Lundell and Mercer might be C at the NHL level, which is a big need and adds value. Also, stylistically I wonder about how Jarvis would fit with Connor and Ehlers. Both of those seem like bigger, faster versions of Jarvis (Jarvis might have better vision than Connor), but I could see them bumping into each other circling in the perimeter of the offensive zone trying to create space. The way I see it, players like Jarvis, Ehlers and Connor exploit open ice really well, whereas players like Quinn and Mercer (and Zary) are better working in tight areas and along the boards. Lundell strikes me as a player that won't break down players one-on-one in tight quarters, but he moves the puck so efficiently that he creates space for his linemates. He reminds me a bit of Bergeron or Stastny (late-career version) in that regard. The advantage of a player like Lundell is that he cleans up the defensive zone and moves the puck up ice better than almost any other draft-eligible player, and the Jets' wingers really need that type of player.

I'm intrigued by Zary. He has terrific offensive skills and plays an intense game. He'd add pizzazz and intensity to the top 6.

The more I think about the draft, the more it seems like the Jets should wait and see if one of their top-ranked prospects falls to them, and if not, explore trading down in the top 15-16, adding another 2nd round pick. I like a number of players that might be available in the 40-50 range.

Yeah all guys seem like they have some potential to fit into our system. Jarvis is by far the best skater in the draft, Foudy is a faster but not as good with edgework, Rossi has the best edgework but he's not as fast. Jarvis has Ehlers like skating and could potentially be around a similar size. He does have some potential to play C, though he mostly lined up at wing this year.

Quinn is a shooter through and through and I'm not all that sure the Jets really need another shoot first, ask questions later winger. Eventually you need some guys that can distribute.

Mercer has some big question marks to his game for me. The drop in production on a team where someone wasn't driving the bus for him was questionable. He had some chances at the WJC as well and didn't do a whole heck of a lot. He looks a lot different when you watch his Drummondville games vs when you watch his Chicoutimi games. I question whether he can be enough of a play driver to be a top 6 regular with the Jets.

Lundell is the kind of player that thrives with time and open space, both things that are hard to manufacture if you don't have good footspeed in the NHL. That's why I question his upside and his ability to slow the game down. Zary just looks more suited to the NHL game. He's a buzzsaw on the puck, forechecks hard and goes to the dirty areas, not afraid of being physical either. The upside is still questionable but add to that his puck skills and I think he's got a better shot at being a top 6 guy than Lundell. Lundell is safer to be an NHL regular though if that makes sense.

 

[Daximus]

I think player value / quality is related to position, when comparing C to W. A player that can play C is more valuable and "better" than a forward that can't. So, if you think a prospect is a bona fide C, then that counts extra in terms of quality and value, in my view.

Where I don't see much rationale in selecting based on position is LW vs. RW or LD vs. RD, mainly because most prospects are a few years away from making a roster, and you can't project a depth chart that far ahead, with free agency and trades playing a role in shaping a roster.

Yeah what looks like a strength on the LD side now could easily turn the other way. Samberg and Heinola aren't sure things yet. 1 or both of them busts out and all the sudden that strength is gone.

 

[Daximus]

As long as he isn’t small like ehlers, scared to get hit like Connor and plays small like Morrissey I will be happy with this pick.

So you want Kaiden Guhle. Big, hits everything in sight and scared of nothing.

 

[razorsedge]

Keep the pick.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

So you want Kaiden Guhle. Big, hits everything in sight and scared of nothing.

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Jets take him at 10 at all

 

[bennylundholm]

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Jets take him at 10 at all

Unless Rossi slides down to us, I see the Jets taking any one of Sanderson, Guhle or Schneider.

 

[Daximus]

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Jets take him at 10 at all

He plays with a mean streak, is strong and rather lanky for his size so likely to fill out some more if he puts in the work. Already a good skater, very strong in his own zone and arguably the hardest shot of any defender in the draft. If he was a righty I think he'd be a lock for our pick. If you wan't a Buff replacement but for the left side he is about as close as you'll get.

 

[Teemusalami204]

So you want Kaiden Guhle. Big, hits everything in sight and scared of nothing.

Would be great but doesn’t help us next year or the year after most likely

 

[Daximus]

Would be great but doesn’t help us next year or the year after most likely

No, no one in this draft outside of Lafreniere is likely to help us next year. Some might not be ready the next year either. Guhle is probably going to need another year of junior at the very least and likely another year after that, though you never know. He's pretty close to being physically ready to play NHL already. He may even need a full year of AHL before he can make the jump too. I'd expect at least a 2-3 year window before he makes the jump to the NHL.

 

[lanky]

I'm going to clear my living room of valuables before the draft because if they pick another LD I'm flipping my table.

 

[Daximus]

I'm going to clear my living room of valuables before the draft because if they pick another LD I'm flipping my table.

Don't get to upset. For all we know Heinola gets a career ending injury in next years camp and Samberg busts. All the sudden we have nothing on the left side. No prospect is a certainty. Never plan on anyone making the NHL unless they are a McDavid level player.

 

[Whileee]

Based on McKenzie's draft list, Guhle is rated by a number of NHL scouts ahead of Jarvis, Zary, Schneider and some other highly ranked prospects. He's in the same tier as players like Mercer and Lundell.

 

[wpgallday1960]

There probably isn’t a common draft combine/fitness testing this year, but does anyone if they are doing anything like that virtually this year? And what date that might be?

 

[Bob E]

I said awhile ago I think the Jets would like Guhle’s skillset. At the top prospects game he was dominant, at times, as his gap control was very good and he showed some offensive capability as well.

Would not surprise me if Chevy likes him and selects him at #10. But you never know who falls and who might like Guhle picking in the top 9.

 

[Whileee]

I said awhile ago I think the Jets would like Guhle’s skillset. At the top prospects game he was dominant, at times, as his gap control was very good and he showed some offensive capability as well.

Would not surprise me if Chevy likes him and selects him at #10. But you never know who falls and who might like Guhle picking in the top 9.

If the Jets are looking at drafting players like Schneider and Guhle and Zary I'll be fine with that, but I hope they at least trade down and add another pick. Maybe the Jets are completely in love with one of them above others and won't risk a trade down, but it's hard to see a rationale based on how much diversity of opinion there is in the 10-15 range of prospects.