Speculation: 2020 Entry Draft Part II - We have the 10th pick

[GeorgeJETson]

Of course it depends on who has gone before and who is still available. I still take Lundell there if he hasn't gone. Otherwise I would look at Schneider. If they were both gone, I would wish I had traded the pick somewhere for a C.

Well, I'd probably snag Lundell at 10, so if he's still at 13 I would grab him there. Hence why I said obvious fallers.

If Schneider was there at 13 along with Mercer, that would make it very tough. I would have guessed Schneider might be gone by then though.

 

[Daximus]

Rossi is a firecracker, I don’t think his game changes much at the next level, he is the real deal when it comes to being hard to play against even tho he’s not big.

I can't even count how many times that's been said about a small player. Of course some make it through like DeBrincat and Yamamoto and I do think Rossi has a similar drive to those guys. I do like Rossi's game but it's far from assured that he won't wilt under NHL pressure. The step up in physicality is 50 fold from the CHL.

 

[Daximus]

There is always going to be risk attached. The ability to make decisions under pressure is probably what NHL GM's have more of than most of us. It applies to the draft, to trades made and not made. They are making decisions to do or not do all the time. That is what they bring to the draft table. It is not evaluating talent. That is what they have scouts for. But the GM takes in all the information he can get and then decides. Look at the range of opinions here on players. I'll bet the range is pretty wide among the scouts in the draft meeting too. The GM makes the final decision. And takes the risk.

I wonder what Chevy was offered for #2 in '16? Laughed, smiled and politely said no, thanks.

I'm not sure I want to know what was offered.

 

[puck stoppa]

I can't even count how many times that's been said about a small player. Of course some make it through like DeBrincat and Yamamoto and I do think Rossi has a similar drive to those guys. I do like Rossi's game but it's far from assured that he won't wilt under NHL pressure. The step up in physicality is 50 fold from the CHL.

For sure. I’ve been burned liking smaller players in the past but I’ve also liked some that have gone on to be great NHLers. Hard to predict which way it goes with 17-18 year olds.

 

[Daximus]

For sure. I’ve been burned liking smaller players in the past but I’ve also liked some that have gone on to be great NHLers. Hard to predict which way it goes with 17-18 year olds.

Very true. So much of it comes down to those hidden attributes most of us aren't privy too. I feel like every single player gets the hard worker tag. But there is a difference between those who work hard and those who benefit from the hard work they put in. Just simply hitting the gym and training every day won't make you the best. There is a certain kind of drive that separates the McDavids from the Yakupovs.

 

[NA Hockey]

Rossi is kind of like Laf, he's not a great skater but not a bad skater either. The only thing that worries me about both Rossi and Perfetti is how much they beat up on weak OHL competition this year but struggled against good teams. Byfield's consistency is an issue but at least he had good stretches against both good and bad teams.

I think you have it wrong. Perfetti by far played the toughest schedule of Rossi, Byfield and himself. Perfetti played in the Western conference which was much stronger this year than the East. A number of people have run the numbers (and discussed this at length on HF) and Perfetti's numbers stay the steadiest against top teams and he scored the most against top teams in fact his goal scoring went up against the leagues best teams.. He didn't have the opportunity to feast on the North Bay's, Niagara's and Kingston's like Byfield and Rossi did.

See this string of tweets for some numbers:

 

[Daximus]

I think you have it wrong. Perfetti by far played the toughest schedule of Rossi, Byfield and himself. Perfetti played in the Western conference which was much stronger this year than the East. A number of people have run the numbers (and discussed this at length on HF) and Perfetti's numbers stay the steadiest against top teams and he scored the most against top teams in fact his goal scoring went up against the leagues best teams.. He didn't have the opportunity to feast on the North Bay's, Niagara's and Kingston's like Byfield and Rossi did.

See this string of tweets for some numbers:

Interesting I stand corrected. I swear I saw another graphic that had different numbers than this, though it was at an earlier point in the season so those numbers may have changed over time. But my point still stands about Byfield and Rossi.

 

[Bob E]

If Mercer is the Jets pick, I like the fact he can play wing and C. Could be that elusive 2C or a Wheeler replacement in a few years. Some flexibility with him.

 

[Heldig]

I also like Holloway. Natural C. " a big, two-way power forward that will bring grit and toughness to the lineup. He has drive, determination, and a willingness to play in the tough areas of the ice while retrieving pucks and driving the play."

Probably too soon to pick him where the Jets pick. His comparison is Dylan Larkin.

 

[Whileee]

I also like Holloway. Natural C. " a big, two-way power forward that will bring grit and toughness to the lineup. He has drive, determination, and a willingness to play in the tough areas of the ice while retrieving pucks and driving the play."

Probably too soon to pick him where the Jets pick. His comparison is Dylan Larkin.

Larkin had a much better skillset at the same age, and was a better skater. I like Holloway, but he doesn't seem to project as a top end forward. But his size, speed and aggressiveness are intriguing, and he does have good hands.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

I've been excited about Jarvis for months, but I was thinking we'd pick in the mid-late teens. I've grown attached to the prospect, but if Lundell were available at 10, I'd have a hard time passing him up.

 

[ps241]

Why would some team give us a 2nd for that small move up?

Perhaps two high ranking people in a teams draft room will just need to make sure they land a 6’7” defender who is not good at Ice hockey but dam.........he’s 6’7”

 

[ps241]

Some random draft musings as I watch some playoff action...

Although it's usually difficult to understand Chevy's communication, in his recent interview he seemed to suggest that moving from #12 to #10 was significant, and indicated that he thought there would be good players / options by being at #10. I wonder if the Jets might be looking at some specific prospects that are more likely to be available at #10. Sanderson? Lundell? Quinn?

Watching the playoffs, it occurred to me that if the Jets are looking at forwards, they might want to consider not only skill, but also players that play in the congested / tough areas in the slot and are effective in board battles. I don't like Perron, but he's a type of player that seems to not only play with skill, but he also creates chances by playing aggressively around the slot and boards. Considering the 2020 draft class, I think players like Quinn, Mercer and Zary might fit that role better than a player like Holtz.

I've been up and down on Lundell, but watching the impact of a player like Horvat reminded me how much players can develop after 18. Horvat wasn't seen as a plus skater, and didn't have elite hands/skills. But he has a great work ethic and has really improved his skating and his skills through hard work, much as Scheifele and Harkins have done. By all accounts, Lundell is a high-character player who works hard, to go along with very high hockey IQ. He's produced well in terms of outputs (scoring and shot metrics) with the Liiga, and if he is willing to work hard he can improve his skating and skills substantially. I wouldn't be disappointed at all if Lundell is picked at #10 by the Jets.

Watching other teams makes it really clear how much improvement the Jets need on D. I hope Samberg and Heinola are able to make an impact sooner, rather than later, but it would also be great to get a big shutdown D that can out-skate most opponents. Sanderson fits that profile, and would give the Jets one of the best D prospect pools in the NHL (Sanderson, Samberg, Heinola, Gawanke, Chisholm, etc.). Interestingly, Chevy made the point that young D can come in and make an immediate impact on a contending team, alluding to Samberg and Heinola as internal options for improving the D.

Interesting comments. I will have to listen to Chevys interview.

Watching the playoffs objectively I realize how much work we need on our team defence. Our top 6 forwards play allot of minutes and don’t defend well enough. Our top line have faded defensively and are not committed. Scheif cheats for offence way too much and Connor is so passive. 2nd line is anchored by two scoring wingers who are responsible but not necessary strong defenders.

Then you throw on our “million a man” D core and it explains why we got caved all year.

McDavid correctly pointed out that his team is home and cool because there team doesn’t defend well enough and he’s right. Draisaitl is going to win an award at the end of the year and he makes a Scheif look like Bergeron.

Now in saying all of this I still think you draft BPA and add skill with your first round pick (or where ever you can) but then Chevy needs to make adjustments. The good news is I am positive he is acutely aware.

very interesting comment that he thinks moving from #12 to #10 was significant and I tend to agree. It puts you two spots closer to getting a prime asset that slips just a bit.

 

[puck stoppa]

I think you have it wrong. Perfetti by far played the toughest schedule of Rossi, Byfield and himself. Perfetti played in the Western conference which was much stronger this year than the East. A number of people have run the numbers (and discussed this at length on HF) and Perfetti's numbers stay the steadiest against top teams and he scored the most against top teams in fact his goal scoring went up against the leagues best teams.. He didn't have the opportunity to feast on the North Bay's, Niagara's and Kingston's like Byfield and Rossi did.

See this string of tweets for some numbers:

Posts like these sure make this thread a beauty! Perfetti is the real deal. He reminds me of Stone in the sense that his skating isn’t perfect but he’s gets to the areas he needs to. His hockey IQ is through the roof. Pure sniper who’s IQ also allows him to be a great playmaker as he sees the ice so well. Draft him and give him a few years to build strength and improve his quickness. I really hope he falls to us.

 

[puck stoppa]

Interesting comments. I will have to listen to Chevys interview.

Watching the playoffs objectively I realize how much work we need on our team defence. Our top 6 forwards play allot of minutes and don’t defend well enough. Our top line have faded defensively and are not committed. Scheif cheats for offence way too much and Connor is so passive. 2nd line is anchored by two scoring wingers who are responsible but not necessary strong defenders.

Then you throw on our “million a man” D core and it explains why we got caved all year.

McDavid correctly pointed out that his team is home and cool because there team doesn’t defend well enough and he’s right. Draisaitl is going to win an award at the end of the year and he makes a Scheif look like Bergeron.

Now in saying all of this I still think you draft BPA and add skill with your first round pick (or where ever you can) but then Chevy needs to make adjustments. The good news is I am positive he is acutely aware.

very interesting comment that he thinks moving from #12 to #10 was significant and I tend to agree. It puts you two spots closer to getting a prime asset that slips just a bit.

He’s likely licking his chops as he has three guys rated really high and he knows one is sure to be there at 10. For me those three are Perfetti, Sanderson and Quinn.

 

[Daximus]

Perhaps two high ranking people in a teams draft room will just need to make sure they land a 6’7” defender who is not good at Ice hockey but dam.........he’s 6’7”

Chicoutimi has 6'8 Louis Crevier. 10th overall pick lets go!!! Funny thing is he actually has better production than Stanley did in his draft year and draft -1 year. Wonder why he's not highly ranked?

 

[Daximus]

Posts like these sure make this thread a beauty! Perfetti is the real deal. He reminds me of Stone in the sense that his skating isn’t perfect but he’s gets to the areas he needs to. His hockey IQ is through the roof. Pure sniper who’s IQ also allows him to be a great playmaker as he sees the ice so well. Draft him and give him a few years to build strength and improve his quickness. I really hope he falls to us.

If this is the case and it's pretty well known I have a feeling Perfetti is the least likely to slip of the top guys. For some reason I see Holtz as the slipper. I don't even have him in the same tier personally. He is a bit of a one-trick pony but he does that one trick really well. Can't see Drysdale slipping being a righty and highly ranked. Sanderson likely goes top 9 as well. We really have to hope that someone goes off board in the top 9 AND someone takes Askarov to have a hope of getting someone to drop that isn't Holtz IMO. Though I would be very happy with Jarvis.

For me it goes:

1. Laf
--
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
--
4. Raymond
5. Perfetti
6. Sanderson
7. Rossi
--
8. Holtz
9. Drysdale
10. Jarvis
--
11. Zary
12. Guhle
13. Quinn
14. Schneider
15. Mercer

 

[puck stoppa]

If this is the case and it's pretty well known I have a feeling Perfetti is the least likely to slip of the top guys. For some reason I see Holtz as the slipper. I don't even have him in the same tier personally. He is a bit of a one-trick pony but he does that one trick really well. Can't see Drysdale slipping being a righty and highly ranked. Sanderson likely goes top 9 as well. We really have to hope that someone goes off board in the top 9 AND someone takes Askarov to have a hope of getting someone to drop that isn't Holtz IMO. Though I would be very happy with Jarvis.

For me it goes:

1. Laf
--
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
--
4. Raymond
5. Perfetti
6. Sanderson
7. Rossi
--
8. Holtz
9. Drysdale
10. Jarvis
--
11. Zary
12. Guhle
13. Quinn
14. Schneider
15. Mercer

We’re pretty close. I have Drysdale 7, Raymond 8 and Quinn 9. I like Zary too but don’t think he goes top 10. Lundell could go to the Wild as well.

 

[ps241]

Very true. So much of it comes down to those hidden attributes most of us aren't privy too. I feel like every single player gets the hard worker tag. But there is a difference between those who work hard and those who benefit from the hard work they put in. Just simply hitting the gym and training every day won't make you the best. There is a certain kind of drive that separates the McDavids from the Yakupovs.

Drive is huge.

First off most NHL players train hard and are professional but there are total beasts and guys who coast.

[mild speculation alert]

Recent example on a lower level Harkins vs Niku. Harkins has been relentless on out working the other guys to make the jump.

The stories of how hard Horvat worked to improve his skating were impressive. The Barkov Story I am less familiar with but I seem to recall he trained very hard plus on top of it he did the specific skating work.

Rumblings about Mittelstadt being way too laid back off ice. Virtanen has some mild issues with character around the draft and he has been in hot water repeatedly for showing up out of shape for Canucks training camp. Gaudreau and Buff seemed to be able to perform without being gym rats.

The list goes on and on. Anything an org can do to make sure they don’t draft players that have character challenges is critical.

 

[Daximus]

We’re pretty close. I have Drysdale 7, Raymond 8 and Quinn 9. I like Zary too but don’t think he goes top 10. Lundell could go to the Wild as well.

Yeah I have Lundell at 16, just outside the top 15 but I'm hoping Lundell goes to the Wild. I think there is a good chance he falls if teams don't think there is enough upside there. Zary is likely in a similar boat. I've contemplated moving Jarvis up to 8 and dropping Holtz and Drysdale a spot each. The more I watch of Jarvis the more I love his game. Would be cool to have a Winnipeg kid on the team as well, especially one who is speedy and highly skilled. Fits our current team identity pretty well.

 

[puck stoppa]

Drive is huge.

First off most NHL players train hard and are professional but there are total beasts and guys who coast.

[mild speculation alert]

Recent example on a lower level Harkins vs Niku. Harkins has been relentless on out working the other guys to make the jump.

The stories of how hard Horvat worked to improve his skating were impressive. The Barkov Story I am less familiar with but I seem to recall he trained very hard plus on top of it he did the specific skating work.

Rumblings about Mittelstadt being way too laid back off ice. Virtanen has some mild issues with character around the draft and he has been in hot water repeatedly for showing up out of shape for Canucks training camp. Gaudreau and Buff seemed to be able to perform without being gym rats.

The list goes on and on. Anything an org can do to make sure they don’t draft players that have character challenges is critical.

I know a few guys that made the show and never worked out. Just genetic freaks. Look in tip top shape but don’t go to the gym. Could they have been better? Sure. But to still make it there these days without working out is some kind of accomplishment

 

[drumzan]

If this is the case and it's pretty well known I have a feeling Perfetti is the least likely to slip of the top guys. For some reason I see Holtz as the slipper. I don't even have him in the same tier personally. He is a bit of a one-trick pony but he does that one trick really well. Can't see Drysdale slipping being a righty and highly ranked. Sanderson likely goes top 9 as well. We really have to hope that someone goes off board in the top 9 AND someone takes Askarov to have a hope of getting someone to drop that isn't Holtz IMO. Though I would be very happy with Jarvis.

For me it goes:

1. Laf
--
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
--
4. Raymond
5. Perfetti
6. Sanderson
7. Rossi
--
8. Holtz
9. Drysdale
10. Jarvis
--
11. Zary
12. Guhle
13. Quinn
14. Schneider
15. Mercer

If Holtz is your BPA at 10, you trade down. (just my opinion)

 

[ps241]

If this is the case and it's pretty well known I have a feeling Perfetti is the least likely to slip of the top guys. For some reason I see Holtz as the slipper. I don't even have him in the same tier personally. He is a bit of a one-trick pony but he does that one trick really well. Can't see Drysdale slipping being a righty and highly ranked. Sanderson likely goes top 9 as well. We really have to hope that someone goes off board in the top 9 AND someone takes Askarov to have a hope of getting someone to drop that isn't Holtz IMO. Though I would be very happy with Jarvis.

For me it goes:

1. Laf
--
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
--
4. Raymond
5. Perfetti
6. Sanderson
7. Rossi
--
8. Holtz
9. Drysdale
10. Jarvis
--
11. Zary
12. Guhle
13. Quinn
14. Schneider
15. Mercer

We’re pretty close. I have Drysdale 7, Raymond 8 and Quinn 9. I like Zary too but don’t think he goes top 10. Lundell could go to the Wild as well.

Keep in mind the Broberg factor. There is always a “consensus busting ” surprise pick in the top 10 and this year is ripe for it. Throw in Askarov and we could be looking at a prime faller.

My guess is for sure one of either Rossi or Raymond (just my gut) is there.

Sanderson or Perfetti are the guys I am most hoping to be there but I can’t see Perfetti dropping to 10.

There are lots the 10-20 ranked players that could “easily” be picked in the top 10.

 

[Daximus]

Drive is huge.

First off most NHL players train hard and are professional but there are total beasts and guys who coast.

[mild speculation alert]

Recent example on a lower level Harkins vs Niku. Harkins has been relentless on out working the other guys to make the jump.

The stories of how hard Horvat worked to improve his skating were impressive. The Barkov Story I am less familiar with but I seem to recall he trained very hard plus on top of it he did the specific skating work.

Rumblings about Mittelstadt being way too laid back off ice. Virtanen has some mild issues with character around the draft and he has been in hot water repeatedly for showing up out of shape for Canucks training camp. Gaudreau and Buff seemed to be able to perform without being gym rats.

The list goes on and on. Anything an org can do to make sure they don’t draft players that have character challenges is critical.

Yeah exactly. Character and work ethic are both great things to have. It's been said Ovi is not big on the gym but when you have such a high talent level sometimes it doesn't seem to matter.

 

[Daximus]

Keep in mind the Broberg factor. There is always a “consensus busting ” surprise pick in the top 10 and this year is ripe for it. Throw in Askarov and we could be looking at a prime faller.

My guess is for sure one of either Rossi or Raymond (just my gut) is there.

Sanderson or Perfetti are the guys I am most hoping to be there but I can’t see Perfetti dropping to 10.

There are lots the 10-20 ranked players that could “easily” be picked in the top 10.

Yeah Jarvis shot up the rankings late. Quinn and Schneider both have some hype coming in too. The Wild need a rebuild badly and should start that rebuild by taking Askarov. But for some reason I think they will pass on him.