Prospect Info: 2019-2020 Senators Prospects Watch

[Micklebot]

To be fair, as members of the Sens fan base, we're probably more prone to overvaluing 5th and 6th round picks than most teams.

A quick look at the team's draft history from inception to 2014 cohort, we've selected 21 players in the 5th round, and 20 in the 6th round. Of those 41 players, 9 have played 350 or more games, roughly 22% success. These aren't all plugs either;

Alfredsson, Neil, Laich, Dackell, Zanon, Hoffman., Arvedson, Stone and Borowiecki all came from 5th or 6th round picks.

By contrast, the 2nd round has yielded a far less impressive group; of the 19 selections, we have Fisher, Vermette, Silfverberg, Neckar, Lehhner, and Wiercioch, not all of which even hit that 350 game mark.

We've defied the odds over the years, and I wouldn't be shocked if some expect the trend to continue.

 

[mianjo]

He has an assist on the only goal for Djurgårdens down 2-1 in 2nd

 

[HSF]

If you are going to give props to the scouting staff for making good picks late shouldn't you also give them the benefit of the doubt when the team trades picks?

Could it be possible that the scouting staff know a lot of the late players and have agreed with Dorion trading those picks?

Just a thought

 

[Micklebot]

If you are going to give props to the scouting staff for making good picks late shouldn't you also give them the benefit of the doubt when the team trades picks?

Could it be possible that the scouting staff know a lot of the late players and have agreed with Dorion trading those picks?

Just a thought

The overall success rate of late round picks is low enough that it's highly unlikely a GM would bother consulting scouts when trading a late round pick unless it's at the draft and you have a feel for who is still available.

Anyways, my point in listing our success with late round picks wasn't about giving scouts or the team credit for finding gems (if it were more than random chance, we'd have probably done much better in rounds 2 through 4), it was about providing a possible explanation why fans overvalue those picks.

When we think of 5th round or 6th round picks, we immediately think Alfredsson, Stone, Hoffman, Arvedson ect. When Edmonton thinks of 5th or 6th round picks, Satan, Chimera, Steve Smith and Van Allen might come to mind if they can remember that far back.

We might very well have better scouting than Edmonton, but if we could reliably find a Stone Alfredsson or Hoffman in those late rounds, we should be hitting with a lot more of our 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks too. Our view of the value of a 5th round pick is going to be skewed by success that really isn't sustainable.

 

[Ice-Tray]

If you are going to give props to the scouting staff for making good picks late shouldn't you also give them the benefit of the doubt when the team trades picks?

Could it be possible that the scouting staff know a lot of the late players and have agreed with Dorion trading those picks?

Just a thought

Hells no, there is a particular skill being honed on HFSens where we try and give compliments here and there while at the same time denying any credit to the GM for them.

We’re becoming quite nimble at this dance you see

 

[Burrowsaurus]

If you are going to give props to the scouting staff for making good picks late shouldn't you also give them the benefit of the doubt when the team trades picks?

Could it be possible that the scouting staff know a lot of the late players and have agreed with Dorion trading those picks?

Just a thought

honestly no I don't think that's possible. the most common joke always told by GMs after trading pick near or at the draft is " the scouts aren't going to love me" I don't think any scout really has the clout to say " no Pierre youre not trading that 6th round pick theres a guaranteed star right there for us"

 

[Tuna99]

If you are going to give props to the scouting staff for making good picks late shouldn't you also give them the benefit of the doubt when the team trades picks?

Could it be possible that the scouting staff know a lot of the late players and have agreed with Dorion trading those picks?

Just a thought

Or Dorion sees a pattern of his scouts picking 20 year olds with the late round picks and doesn’t like it, so he trades these picks away for real assets

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Button's list of top 50 NHL affiliated prospects. Sens have 5 which I believe is tops. Doesn't include Batherson or Balcers, so I'm guessing they're considered graduates.

https://www.tsn.ca/russian-players-...ranking-of-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.1424251

 

[GCK]

Button's list of top 50 NHL affiliated prospects. Sens have 5 which I believe is tops. Doesn't include Batherson or Balcers, so I'm guessing they're considered graduates.

https://www.tsn.ca/russian-players-...ranking-of-nhl-affiliated-prospects-1.1424251

Going by the given criteria Batherson has not graduated. So I guess Button is not a fan. Toronto Sports Network is really setting up Rasmus Orr for failure. I feel bad for the kid.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

There’s no way batherson was left off intentionally. He has probably graduated since he is playing in the nhl right now.

rankings are always poor and based on the world juniors anyway. Joel Hofer isn’t a top 50 prospect. That’s nuts.

 

[HSF]

Brown and batherson probably graduated if you look at the top 5 prospect list he has for Ottawa

 

[Micklebot]

Going by the given criteria Batherson has not graduated. So I guess Button is not a fan. Toronto Sports Network is really setting up Rasmus Orr for failure. I feel bad for the kid.

That seems really odd to me... Batherson goes from 23rd last year to outside the top 50 while having a pretty darn good year? Formenton also dropped off the list from last year, he had been 25th.

It seems only 13 prospects from last year made this years list, which just seems wrong. Not a lot of guys are 21 or older on that list, and the ones that are either are goalies, or are playing in the KHL or NCAA.

I strongly suspect they graduated Balcers, Batherson, and Brown, or alternatively, they place a lot of weight on age.

 

[toxic poster]

There’s no way batherson was left off intentionally. He has probably graduated since he is playing in the nhl right now.

rankings are always poor and based on the world juniors anyway. Joel Hofer isn’t a top 50 prospect. That’s nuts.

he included Brannstrom. if Brannstrom hasn't graduated neither has Batherson. It's a terrible omission in another ridiculous f***ing list by Button. Don't understand why people give him a platform to spew his biased rhetoric

 

[Micklebot]

he included Brannstrom. if Brannstrom hasn't graduated neither has Batherson. It's a terrible omission in another ridiculous ****ing list by Button. Don't understand why people give him a platform to spew his biased rhetoric

I think age is the difference. His list was very light on 21+ year olds. Button really liked Batherson last year and not much has really changed.

 

[SevenOfSpades]

 

[Benttheknee]

Having Batherson graduated let us get Pinto in at 50

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Wasn't Daccord a 7th rd pick & now he is contributing in Belleville, Stone & Hoffman were also late rd picks, it happens in almost every draft where some guy picked late turns into a star that everyone missed.

If only we could start doing the same in the first two rounds

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Another 7th round pick.

 

[God Says No]

Another 7th round pick.

Got a good feeling about this guy for some reason. More so than our earlier picks in the draft.

 

[MatchesMalone]

Sens prospects World Juniors ATOI:

Shane Pinto's 18:05 ranked second to Nic Robertsson (18:16) among USA forwards.

Lassi Thomson's 17:11 ranked first among Finnish defensemen.

Jacob Bernard-Docker's 18:58 ranked second to Bowen Byram (19:37) among Canadian defensemen.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Pronman released his midseason prospect rankings. Brannstrom & Batherson were not considered for the list.

Sens on the list:

17. Josh Norris, C, Ottawa (Belleville-AHL)

May 5, 1999 | 6-foot-1 | 194 pounds
Drafted: 19th-overall (2017)
Previous ranking: No. 64

Skating: 55
Puck Skills: 55
Physical Game: 50
Hockey Sense: 60

Norris has been everything Ottawa fans could have hoped for as a rookie pro. He has 20 goals at the midway mark, he plays big minutes for a top team in the AHL and has earned nearly universal praise from scouts. He has a quick and skilled game to go along with his great hockey sense, allowing him to be a threat whenever he’s on the ice. Norris isn’t a one-way player, as he competes well and shows the ability to win battles against men. He hasn’t been on Belleville’s PK yet, but I think he can do that with time at the higher levels.

24. Alex Formenton, LW, Ottawa (Belleville-AHL)
Sept. 13, 1999 | 6-foot-2 | 185 pounds
Drafted: 47th-overall (2017)
Previous ranking: No. 43

Skating: 65
Puck Skills: 55
Physical Game: 60
Hockey Sense: 55

Formenton has played a big role on a very good AHL team, playing on both special teams for Belleville. Formenton’s game has translated very well to the pro level. His elite speed to go along with his size and effort allows him to pressure even the quickest AHL defenseman. He’s never going to dazzle with his offensive touch, but he has skill and has 16 goals already this season, more than he scored in the OHL last season in a similar number of games. There are times I hear the line “he’ll make a better pro than junior” and you roll your eyes a bit, but Formenton is the kind of player that might be true about.

35. Logan Brown, C, Ottawa (Belleville-AHL)
March 5, 1998 | 6-foot-6 | 220 pounds
Drafted: 11th-overall (2016)
Previous ranking: No. 49

Skating: 45
Puck Skills: 60
Physical Game: 70
Hockey Sense: 60

Brown has played most of his season up with Ottawa. He didn’t look ready and ultimately didn’t stick with Ottawa. When he’s been in the AHL, though, I’ve been very impressed. Brown’s toolkit is different than others. He’s a 6-foot-6 forward with legit high-end skill and playmaking ability. He stands out whenever he’s on the ice. Brown’s footspeed has never been a selling point, although he skates well for such a large player. The things he’s always needed to work on have been playing quicker, playing tougher and playing better away from the puck. I think he’s going to be a good NHLer, and maybe even a great one, but it’ll take time.

54. Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa (North Dakota-NCHC)
Nov. 12, 2000 | 6-foot-2 | 192 pounds
Drafted: 32nd-overall (2019)
Previous ranking: Not Ranked

Skating: 50
Puck Skills: 55
Physical Game: 55
Hockey Sense: 60

Pinto is having a great season. He’s a top player for the best college team in the country, and emerged as USA’s No. 1 center and one of its best players at the world juniors. I would not have seen that coming last season. Pinto’s game is subtle. He’s very smart, and very good around the net and middle-third of the ice. He has some speed and skill, but he’s not going to inside-out defenders on a regular basis. Pinto competes well and makes a lot of plays inside the offensive zone. He has a lot of details in his game coaches and scouts admire.

He also says that Lassi Thomson easily could have made the list. No comment on JBD.

 

[Micklebot]

Pronman released his midseason prospect rankings. Brannstrom & Batherson were not considered for the list.

Sens on the list:









He also says that Lassi Thomson easily could have made the list. No comment on JBD.

Wow, has Kaliyev 7th... that's really bullish on him.

For those who don't have access to the article,

Norris is in the High End/Very good Bubble tier, High end being projects as a 1st line forward or top pair d, while very good is projects as a top 6 forward or top 4 D

Formenton, Brown and Pinto he has as a Very good prospects,

The list only goes to 72, so Thomson and JBD I guess are 73+ but as you mentioned, specifically mentions Lassi being close in the replies. 7 goalies are separately ranked, none are Sens prospects.

 

[GCK]

Having Kaliyev 7th kind of puts this list in perspective for me. Not a Kaliyev fan.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Brown's physical game is a 70 but Formenton's skating game is a 65? Sorry pal, but Formenton's skating is among the elite of the elite. Brown's physical play is nowhere near that. Heck, I'd put Formenton's physical game above Brown's.