2017 nhl redraft 1-15

[M2Beezy]

Thomas at 30?! Lol wow ok. Poehling ahead of him? Habs fan?

Habs are my most hated team of all time. They made one smart move in drafting Poehling but they will probably screw up his development. I hope he gets traded to a better team so he can develop properly

NEXT

 

[TheGoldenJet]

That’s too specific to be considered an achievement.

That is an interesting opinion you have. Might want to share it on twitter with the hockey writers who reported the record. I am not the one who decided to call this a record, nor did I say it was as impressive as what Elias Petterson did in the SHL.

6 defensemen have played over 15 games in the AHL during their D+1 seasons AFAIK, and by adding these restrictions you take out the PPG leader and the overall scoring leader (both with higher PPG than Liljegren).

Nope, it’s a list of 6 high end prospects (Voynov, Lindholm, Kylington are some I recall) left over after all the ‘restrictions’ are applied that Liljegren topped. That list does not include some other top prospects that didn’t make the GP cutoff (which Liljegren also outscored), like Morgan Rielly, Cal Foote, etc.

I guess it’s a nice tidbit, but it’s also worth noting that Liljegren’s PPG might have fallen further if he played as many games as Voynov.

What makes you repeat that his PPG might have ‘fallen’? It could have fallen, it could have risen, it could have stayed he same. If Liljegren stayed at the same PPG pace, he outscores Voynov over the same amount of games played. Liljegren ended his AHL regular season on a two game point streak and was a much better player at the end of the season than at the start, no reason to say his PPG would have ‘fallen’ with a few more games played.

 

[Wings4Life]

My current list, extended to a top 20:

1. Hischier
2. Petterson
3. Patrick
4. Heiskanen
5. Mittelstadt
6. Makar
7. Tolvanen
8. Glass
9. Necas
10. Liljegren
11. Vilardi
12. Chytil
13. Andersson
14. Rasmussen
15. Brannstrom
16. Valimaki
17. Thomas
18. Tippett
19. Foote
20. Suzuki

HM: Frost, Vesalainen, Yamamoto, Timmins, Jokiharju

Based on draft pedigree (only one year has passed) and scouts' opinions at the time of the draft (eg. Bob's list), as well as the progress they've made this year based on my viewings of each player and their stats.

Some thoughts:

Vilardi was the hardest player to rank. He missed half a season, which did not help his stock, but came back on fire in the second half of his draft plus 1 year. Hard to compare his higher points per game against a guy like Glass, who played twice as many games and put up 102 points on the year in the process. Overall I left Vilardi at #11 where he was drafted, but I can see reasonable arguments for having him anywhere in the #7-14 range.

Call me a homer for having Suzuki in at #20 despite his lack of progress this year, but 100 points in the OHL is nothing to sneeze at. That said, I would not argue if any of the guys I listed as HM's were placed at #20 at Suzuki's expense.

Took Necas over Chytil, as Necas outplayed him at every level this year (Czech U20, WJC, EHT and WC). Chytil is a big riser for me (drafted at #21) but does not quite crack the top 10 as a result. Based on his AHL and NT play and numbers however, Chytil does slot in one spot ahead of Lias Andersson, who had the better draft pedigree but less impressive showings this year.

Took Valimaki over Foote just barely, more of an eye test and gut feel pick for me as Foote actually had better numbers in the WHL this year. No complaints for those who would flip these two, both players should make the show in a couple years.

Mittelstadt gets the coveted #5 spot as he was solid all year with a terrific WJC, and, most importantly, convinced me in his 6 game NHL stint that he is the real deal. Mittelstadt will be a key contributor for Buffalo next season.

Edited for spelling.

Really solid list, good job.

Minor quibble would be Frost sliding in at 20 for me over Suzuki. The way he ended the OHL playoffs, its hard to keep Frost out of the top 20 even though he has a bit less draft pedigree being drafted down at 27. But I see you have him as an honourable mention so it's all good.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

As a neutral fan, I think Liljegren had the better season. Who will be the better defenceman? Idk

 

[Pavels Dog]

I don’t agree, largely because it is very difficult to be an 18 year old defenceman in the AHL. Only high-end prospects, by and large, are capable of pulling it off as lineup regulars in such a physical men’s league like the AHL.

Actually, what this does is remove players with a small sample size. Morgan Rielly for example had 3 points in 14 AHL games at 18yo, but was left off the list due to not enough games played (he still would have ranked behind Liljegren’s points per game average if he was included)

It's cherrypicked beyond belief.

There are 4 specific parameters set up to make it a "record":

- Post 94-95 only (guess what, all-time... it's not a record)
- 40+ GP (guess what... remove that and he slides to 12th in post-95 PPG)
- Regular season only (guess what, look at overall totals including playoffs and Voynov's stats are better)
- U19 only, excluding such players as Ristolainen because of their birthday rather than looking at it more fairly (d+1 seasons)

Yeah, in an extremely specific set of parameters that ensure there's only like 3 real comparables, Liljegren has the "record".

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

That is an interesting opinion you have. Might want to share it on twitter with the hockey writers who reported the record. I am not the one who decided to call this a record, nor did I say it was as impressive as what Elias Petterson did in the SHL.



Nope, it’s a list of 6 high end prospects (Voynov, Lindholm, Kylington are some I recall) left over after all the ‘restrictions’ are applied that Liljegren topped. That list does not include some other top prospects that didn’t make the GP cutoff (which Liljegren also outscored), like Morgan Rielly, Cal Foote, etc.



What makes you repeat that his PPG might have ‘fallen’? It could have fallen, it could have risen, it could have stayed he same. If Liljegren stayed at the same PPG pace, he outscores Voynov over the same amount of games played. Liljegren ended his AHL regular season on a two game point streak and was a much better player at the end of the season than at the start, no reason to say his PPG would have ‘fallen’ with a few more games played.

Regarding the first point: why would I need to seek validation from some hockey reporters on Twitter? The sample size is already miniscule, and it loses all meaning when you further narrow it down.

No. If you filter by ages 18-19 and rookie defenseman on AHL tracker, you get a list of Honka, Voynov, Ristolainen, Liljegren, Lindholm and Kylington. Ristolainen played 34 games. From these, Honka has a PPG of 0.46 and leads in total points with 31. Ristolainen has a PPG of 0.59, by far the highest. So by cutting it off by "18-year-old season" and "40 games", you cut out two of the highest scoring defensemen.

As for your last point, I'm just basing it on the trend. Liljegren's PPG jumped up early in the season, and after that it basically fell the entire season. Sure it's purely speculation, but this is why "records" based on PPG is stupid in the first place.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

It's cherrypicked beyond belief.

Perhaps, but so is your insistence on D+1 rather than U19. Both choices have equal merit and are arbitrary IMO.

Yeah, in an extremely specific set of parameters that ensure there's only like 3 real comparables, Liljegren has the "record".

It’s a list of 6 Dmen, not 3. But thanks for pointing out that the list is post 94 lockout only.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

No. If you filter by ages 18-19 and rookie defenseman on AHL tracker, you get a list of Honka, Voynov, Ristolainen, Liljegren, Lindholm and Kylington. Ristolainen played 34 games. From these, Honka has a PPG of 0.46 and leads in total points with 31. Ristolainen has a PPG of 0.59, by far the highest. So by cutting it off by "18-year-old season" and "40 games", you cut out two of the highest scoring defensemen.

Sorry but your data is not correct. On a quick glance, you are also missing seasons from Detroit’s 1st round pick Yan Golubovsky in 94/95, and Jersey’s 2nd round pick Victor Uchevatov in 2001/02.

As for your last point, I'm just basing it on the trend. Liljegren's PPG jumped up early in the season, and after that it basically fell the entire season. Sure it's purely speculation, but this is why "records" based on PPG is stupid in the first place.

But Liljegren’s PPG was trending up in the last two (or three, or four, or five) games of the season, so again it depends on your cutoff point.

 

[TheFinnishTrap]

Sorry but your data is not correct. On a quick glance, you are also missing seasons from Detroit’s 1st round pick Yan Golubovsky in 94/95, and Jersey’s 2nd round pick Victor Uchevatov in 2001/02.



But Liljegren’s PPG was trending up in the last two (or three, or four, or five) games of the season, so again it depends on your cutoff point.

Okay sure, they are missing from where I looked. Doesn’t change the fact that the sample size is very small and that it’s missing two of the most prominent players.

I’m not looking at his last five games, the development of his PPG is characterized by a sharp jump at the beginning and then a gradual decrease over the rest of the season. I didn’t plug in the stats from the playoffs, but I imagine it would fit in on the trend.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Perhaps, but so is your insistence on D+1 rather than U19. Both choices have equal merit and are arbitrary IMO.

Not really since it’s literally impossible for many players to have an 18-year old AHL season (or one where they’re 18 for the majority of it). So it makes a small sample size even smaller (as do the other restrictions).

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Okay sure, they are missing from where I looked. Doesn’t change the fact that the sample size is very small and that it’s missing two of the most prominent players.

I’m not looking at his last five games, the development of his PPG is characterized by a sharp jump at the beginning and then a gradual decrease over the rest of the season. I didn’t plug in the stats from the playoffs, but I imagine it would fit in on the trend.

I agree that in general trends are important, but the fairest way to extrapolate PPG onto a larger sample of games is to use the entire dataset (ie all 44 games for Liljegren).

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Not really since it’s literally impossible for many players to have an 18-year old AHL season (or one where they’re 18 for the majority of it). So it makes a small sample size even smaller (as do the other restrictions).

It is a small sample size, made up entirely of high end 18yo Euro prospects: three 1st round picks, and three 2nd round picks. Not a huge deal I agree, but notable enough despite the small sample size.

 

[LarKing]

My team’s prospect led the league in secondary assists per game in winter months by an 18 year old so I don’t know why you guys are still even arguing.

 

[stl76]

Thomas at 30?! Lol wow ok. Poehling ahead of him? Habs fan?

That kid you quoted has an irrational hatred of all things St. Louis Blues. It's really weird.

 

[firstemperor]

It's cherrypicked beyond belief.

There are 4 specific parameters set up to make it a "record":

- Post 94-95 only (guess what, all-time... it's not a record)
- 40+ GP (guess what... remove that and he slides to 12th in post-95 PPG)
- Regular season only (guess what, look at overall totals including playoffs and Voynov's stats are better)
- U19 only, excluding such players as Ristolainen because of their birthday rather than looking at it more fairly (d+1 seasons)

Yeah, in an extremely specific set of parameters that ensure there's only like 3 real comparables, Liljegren has the "record".

I think that you provide some necessary contextual merit, that most hockey enthusiasts already know about, but genuinely- you can't fault a 18 year old player for playing in the AHL and showing a high degree of competence, the level of play is significantly higher than lesser junior leagues. There's a notable degree of difference in every nuance of play. If you ultimately over analyzed any prospect (like Rasmussen, with his production in a limited seasonal sample size, or his primary point production in his draft year- then he wouldn't even remotely look like a player worth of a 1st round pick, let alone a top 10 selection). Not sure why this type of "picking at straws" type deal is used at Liljegren specifically. I'm not here to criticize any player/prospect specifically, but to point out a flaw in logical deduction.

Should be said that there's need for some additional context. While Liljegren has been competent offensively, he's played a far more defensive role in his first season with the Marlies and his bread and butter is not jumping into play, as much as it's exiting the zone cleanly and making dynamic entries through the neutral zone and entering the opposition's end. That's where he's shown the highest degree of competence....but those stats aren't easily tracked.

Ultimately, a *full season sample size* should be used to judge any player/prospect as the end-all, as a generality. Otherwise, a guy like Joffrey Lupul might as well be a superstar level player with his "seasonal" productivity.....or his productivity on Saturday Nights.

I also don't think the AHL comparison between eras- i.e. 90s, 2000's is a viable comparable in terms of the developmental factory it is today (I understand your using it as some historical endpoint, but just want to elaborate further on it as to why it's deceiving)- but that's another discussion. With the way the sport has evolved (and teams taking advantadge of inefficiencies/new player developmental models)- the AHL has become a far greater resource in pumping out young, high-end talent in recent years. Teams like Tampa are a great example- Gourde, Johnsson.

 

[Dbrownss]

Thomas at 30?! Lol wow ok. Poehling ahead of him? Habs fan?

It's a hatred of anything Blues. It's best to think of clownshoes when reading anything that poster posts

 

[izlez]

I think we can just make it a general rule that when you are talking about a player's "record setting offensive season", and that season contained one goal, you might want to go back and re-evaluate your word choice.

 

[Scorcho]

Are you trying to say Elias Pettersson is better than Peter Forsberg just because he broke a record he held? Do you know anything about the lower league quality of the SHL since then?

Reid Boucher is Better than stamkos too

 

[Brock Radunske]

People are really sleeping on Liljegren. Zero % chance he had dropped from 17.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Thomas at 30?! Lol wow ok. Poehling ahead of him? Habs fan?

As others have pointed out, he hates all things Blues.

Truthfully, the fact he has Thomas that low must mean Thomas is REALLY good if he despises him that much.

 

[rumrokh]

As others have pointed out, he hates all things Blues.

Truthfully, the fact he has Thomas that low must mean Thomas is REALLY good if he despises him that much.

Woah, woah, let's not hand out that much credit.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

People are really sleeping on Liljegren. Zero % chance he had dropped from 17.

He's probably been the best Marlies Dman in the playoffs.

 

[OregonCanuck]

1. Pettersson - This kid has the wow factor he’s an offensive dynamo with amazing hockey iq

2. Hischier - great speed and hands future number one center

3. Heiskanen - amazing 2 way guy little undersized but it doesn’t matter just won best defensemen in the finish league

4. Mittelstadt - amazing hands can dangle anyone and great offensive iq

5. Patrick - this guy just has a nose for the net I really like his hockey iq he knows what it takes to win

6. Makar

7. Necas

8.Tolvanen

9. Kostin

10.chytill

11. Anderson

12.glass

13. Thomas

14. Frost

15. Brannstrom

 

[TheGoldenJet]

1. Pettersson - This kid has the wow factor he’s an offsensive dynamo with amazing hockey iq

2. Hischier - great speed and hands future number one center

3. Heiskanen - amazing 2 way guy little undersized but it doesn’t matter just won best defensemen in the finish league

4. Mittelstadt - amazing hands can dangle anyone and great offensive iq

5. Patrick - this guy just has a nose for the net I really like his hockey iq he knows what it takes to win

6. Makar

7. Necas

8.Tolvanen

9. Kostin

10.chytill

11. Anderson

12.glass

13. Thomas

14. Frost

15. Brannstrom

Blues homer or Canucks homer? I can’t decide

 

[Dbrownss]

1. Pettersson - This kid has the wow factor he’s an offensive dynamo with amazing hockey iq

2. Hischier - great speed and hands future number one center

3. Heiskanen - amazing 2 way guy little undersized but it doesn’t matter just won best defensemen in the finish league

4. Mittelstadt - amazing hands can dangle anyone and great offensive iq

5. Patrick - this guy just has a nose for the net I really like his hockey iq he knows what it takes to win

6. Makar

7. Necas

8.Tolvanen

9. Kostin

10.chytill

11. Anderson

12.glass

13. Thomas

14. Frost

15. Brannstrom

Why is Kostin so high...and ahead of Thomas?