Speculation: 2016 NHL Entry Draft Discussion (Part III)

[Aavco Cup]

I never assume just because someone is doing a job, that they are exceptionally good at it or better than I could or would be. Unless I know virtually nothing about it. I know literally 100's of people that are horrible at their job and remain in high paying positions. Simply having experience doesn't automatically make you good.

That point aside there are a large number of Tampa fans that did watch Tampa's TC and believed that Drouin should have been playing in the teams top 9 all season as well as not having been sent down. Just because a coach and/or GM does something doesn't mean it's 100% the right thing to do, case in point: Mark ****ing Stuart.

Yeah many of the guys from the 2003 class played the following season and then a large portion of them had a stint in the AHL during the lockout. I'm not saying correlation equals causation but it's one of the strongest draft classes in NHL history and one of the only ones with most of it's class forced to play a development year in a lower league.

You missed my whole point though. Drouin tore up his league and dominated but was sent down. Bergeron had mediocre stats and wasn't even a first round pick. Yet one played in the NHL in his draft+1 season and one did not. You never know how players react to the move to the next level.

 

[Daximus]

All you have to do to be ready is to prove that you can play at the level in a meaningful capacity. Whether they do that by dominating the level below them or showing up in camp and blowing the doors away after a previous season that didn't necessarily scream "NHL ready," is irrelevant. You don't have to wait until they destroy their competition to say he's ready. I don't want to waste a players valuable production on a lower league.

Furthermore by your own criteria Bogosian was NHL ready. Over a PPG as a defenceman in his draft year in the OHL, and was as physically mature as Ekblad was. I have serious doubts pissing away another year (or 2) in OHL and possibly even the AHL afterwards would put him above a guy like Pietrangelo.

I'd argue that leaving players in an inferior league too long can cause them to develop bad habits that won't work when they need to take the next step. At best it's a double edged sword IMO.

A players most valuable production typically comes after 22 years of age so unless you have a guy down in the minors until hes 27 I don't think you are wasting valuable production years. You are only wasting valuable development years.

I don't think being 1 point over PPG in your draft year automatically qualifies you NHL ready. The funny thing is Pietrangelo did piss away another 2 years in the minors and went through injuries as well and ended up heads and shoulders the better defencemen when at the time the two of them were considered to be pretty close. Heck Bogo was in conversations to be better than Doughty at the time of their drafting.

Yeah were a draft and develop team, except when it comes to the development part because it's not important to a players overall abilities as they age. Just toss em' in the lineup and hope for the best.

 

[Daximus]

You missed my whole point though. Drouin tore up his league and dominated but was sent down. Bergeron had mediocre stats and wasn't even a first round pick. Yet one played in the NHL in his draft+1 season and one did not. You never know how players react to the move to the next level.

That's why you test it out and if they don't do very well you send them back. It's pretty obvious when a player isn't ready when they are playing and when a player is. My whole point is that if Chych isn't ready then you send him back and if he continues to need development you continue to develop him. Forcing him into a top 4 spot in his draft +1 just because he's a big guy won't do him any favors and it hurts literally no one if you send him to a lower level to refine his skills and IQ. Point me to a single case of a players development being hurt by continuing to play at a lower level. The learning bad habits shtick is largely a myth. You only learn bad habits if you are the kind of player that takes short cuts or have a coach who teaches bad habits.

 

[Aavco Cup]

That's why you test it out and if they don't do very well you send them back. It's pretty obvious when a player isn't ready when they are playing and when a player is. My whole point is that if Chych isn't ready then you send him back and if he continues to need development you continue to develop him. Forcing him into a top 4 spot in his draft +1 just because he's a big guy won't do him any favors and it hurts literally no one if you send him to a lower level to refine his skills and IQ. Point me to a single case of a players development being hurt by continuing to play at a lower level. The learning bad habits shtick is largely a myth. You only learn bad habits if you are the kind of player that takes short cuts or have a coach who teaches bad habits.

I really hope we don't draft Chychrun, but if we do I doubt he plays in the NHL next year. I think he needs seasoning. I didn't see an NHL ready D when I watched him. But you never know. That's what training camp is for.

 

[JetsFan815]

PLD and Tkachuk seem to take a fair amount of penalties compared to the rest on that list, which has been a problem for the Jets.

They'll fit right in with the Jets

 

[heretik27]

I really hope we don't draft Chychrun, but if we do I doubt he plays in the NHL next year. I think he needs seasoning. I didn't see an NHL ready D when I watched him. But you never know. That's what training camp is for.

It really bothers me that the professionals scouting these players had Chychrun out of their top 10 in that Bob McKenzie article. I think they said something like only 4 of the 10 scouts had him in their top ten, but of the 3 defensemen he was chosen first on most lists. There definitely seems to be a cautious divide in opinion surrounding him. Are we getting a 2nd pairing D with the highest draft pick we might have since returning as Jets? Maybe it's best not to roll the dice and just take a forward this year?

 

[mcpw]

Point me to a single case of a players development being hurt by continuing to play at a lower level.

Point me to a single case of a players development being helped by continuing to play at a lower level. (add proof)

The learning bad habits shtick is largely a myth. You only learn bad habits if you are the kind of player that takes short cuts or have a coach who teaches bad habits.

How good are junior coaches? How good are defensive systems in the CHL?

 

[KingBogo]

It really bothers me that the professionals scouting these players had Chychrun out of their top 10 in that Bob McKenzie article. I think they said something like only 4 of the 10 scouts had him in their top ten, but of the 3 defensemen he was chosen first on most lists. There definitely seems to be a cautious divide in opinion surrounding him. Are we getting a 2nd pairing D with the highest draft pick we might have since returning as Jets? Maybe it's best not to roll the dice and just take a forward this year?

I'm not sure why it would bother you unless you are a big Chychrun fan and were hoping that is who the Jets pick. As you approach the draft there are always lots of chatter and often you see outlier opinions by various talking heads and consensus lists that are taken as a universal understanding of a players ranking. I'm just glad we have pumped additional resources into scouting and we have demonstrated a strong track record over the 1st 5 entry drafts in Winnipeg. All the lists and talk is for fans. Teams all have their own boards that maybe significantly different than consensus lists. I just hope for some lottery luck so we get to pick as high as possible up our list and I trust we have done our due diligence.

I've been high on Chychrun but more by what he represents and what I think the Jets ultimately need to contend. A top pairing LHD with the full tool box (IE. LHD Doughty type). IMO at least, if one of those aren't available you have to trust the organization will pick the BPA even if it is another winger.

 

[Aavco Cup]

It really bothers me that the professionals scouting these players had Chychrun out of their top 10 in that Bob McKenzie article. I think they said something like only 4 of the 10 scouts had him in their top ten, but of the 3 defensemen he was chosen first on most lists. There definitely seems to be a cautious divide in opinion surrounding him. Are we getting a 2nd pairing D with the highest draft pick we might have since returning as Jets? Maybe it's best not to roll the dice and just take a forward this year?

On TSN he said there is a very wide range of opinion this year and basically everyone from 5 to 15 is "interchangeable" Even Fabbro was rated at 5 by one scout. That tells me to expect surprises on draft day

 

[heretik27]

I'm not sure why it would bother you unless you are a big Chychrun fan and were hoping that is who the Jets pick. As you approach the draft there are always lots of chatter and often you see outlier opinions by various talking heads and consensus lists that are taken as a universal understanding of a players ranking. I'm just glad we have pumped additional resources into scouting and we have demonstrated a strong track record over the 1st 5 entry drafts in Winnipeg. All the lists and talk is for fans. Teams all have their own boards that maybe significantly different than consensus lists. I just hope for some lottery luck so we get to pick as high as possible up our list and I trust we have done our due diligence.

I've been high on Chychrun but more by what he represents and what I think the Jets ultimately need to contend. A top pairing LHD with the full tool box (IE. LHD Doughty type). IMO at least, if one of those aren't available you have to trust the organization will pick the BPA even if it is another winger.

I have liked a lot of what I heard about him in the last year. Some people even thought his ceiling could be higher than Ekblad's at one point about a year ago. So with such high praise for a guy whose stock doesn't seem as high as it was before it bothers me a bit. Maybe it's just a case of others improving and closing the gap, maybe he didn't meet expectations this season, I'm not too sure. I haven't really been able to see any of these guys compete live on tv or in person and have had to get a general idea based off of conversations on here and the odd article I find.

 

[drumzan]

On TSN he said there is a very wide range of opinion this year and basically everyone from 5 to 15 is "interchangeable" Even Fabbro was rated at 5 by one scout. That tells me to expect surprises on draft day

Interesting. To me I take that as Tkachuk locked in at 4.

 

[CaptainChef]

Interesting. To me I take that as Tkachuk locked in at 4.

Other than the top 3 (which seem fairly well entrenched now), absolutely nobody is locked. The TSN poll is based off of team scouts choices. Just because one scout on a team likes Tkachuk, doesn't mean he won't be over-ruled by the other scouts or GM on the team & maybe in the end they have Tkachuk # 7 on the team list.

Where there is going to be some huge battles among the team's scouts is how much they like the D & in what order. Some of the top teams are really in need of D, but will they have enough confidence in any of these D to take one of them before the top 6 F. I think at least one D will get selected in the top 6 (who I have no clue, but I'd lean to Juolevi).

Then where do guys like Jost, Keller & Brown end up (any one of these could go as high as 5 perhaps, to as low as 15). Its going to be interesting.

 

[cbcwpg]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/goes-brown-nhl-draft-lottery-power-rankings/

Subjective Lottery Rankings

The “Who Actually Deserves It?” Rankings
The “Who Needs It Most?” Ranking
The “Conspiracy Theories Are Fun” Ranking
The “Unintentional Comedy” Ranking
The “Who Should Fans Be Rooting For?” Ranking
The “What’s Actually Going to Happen?” Ranking

Just me, but if the Jets don't get the #1 pick, I want the Oilers to get it..... just for pure entertainment value.

 

[ecolad]

Other than the top 3 (which seem fairly well entrenched now), absolutely nobody is locked. The TSN poll is based off of team scouts choices. Just because one scout on a team likes Tkachuk, doesn't mean he won't be over-ruled by the other scouts or GM on the team & maybe in the end they have Tkachuk # 7 on the team list.

Where there is going to be some huge battles among the team's scouts is how much they like the D & in what order. Some of the top teams are really in need of D, but will they have enough confidence in any of these D to take one of them before the top 6 F. I think at least one D will get selected in the top 6 (who I have no clue, but I'd lean to Juolevi).

Then where do guys like Jost, Keller & Brown end up (any one of these could go as high as 5 perhaps, to as low as 15). Its going to be interesting.

Interesting indeed !!I`d suggest however that the very biggest battles will likely not occur when comparing the D to the probable top 6 F, but rather, when comparing the D to Jost/Keller and even Brown who will be available in the 7 to 11 picks. To add intrigue, Jost/Keller appear to have all the skills/hockey sense any scout would covet but do not have optimal size. Some really tough choices to be made......

 

[Whileee]

Interesting indeed !!I`d suggest however that the very biggest battles will likely not occur when comparing the D to the probable top 6 F, but rather, when comparing the D to Jost/Keller and even Brown who will be available in the 7 to 11 picks. To add intrigue, Jost/Keller appear to have all the skills/hockey sense any scout would covet but do not have optimal size. Some really tough choices to be made......

Jost seems like his size would be in the Bryan Little range - Keller more like Petan, I suppose.

 

[ecolad]

Jost seems like his size would be in the Bryan Little range - Keller more like Petan, I suppose.

My own view(at this time) is that Jost would be at the top of any such comparison list. In doing so, I have tried to keep his terrific performance at the U18`s in context - showing only that he is more than capable of playing/even excelling with all his peers, irrespective of league. When you then look at his actual stats at Penticton for a larger sample size, you have to be impressed by this kid.

 

[nobody important]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/goes-brown-nhl-draft-lottery-power-rankings/

Subjective Lottery Rankings

The “Who Actually Deserves It?†Rankings
The “Who Needs It Most?†Ranking
The “Conspiracy Theories Are Fun†Ranking
The “Unintentional Comedy†Ranking
The “Who Should Fans Be Rooting For?†Ranking
The “What’s Actually Going to Happen?†Ranking

Just me, but if the Jets don't get the #1 pick, I want the Oilers to get it..... just for pure entertainment value.

I loved the "You stole our team, we steal your children" line.

Revenge is indeed a dish best served cold.

 

[sipowicz]

When is the NHL's fixed predetermined computer generated 2016 draft lottery that delivers the Leaf's the number one, the Coyotes number two and Columbus number three?

 

[heretik27]

I've heard some good things about Fabbro and seen him fall to around 15 or lower in some mock drafts on here, I wonder if we'd be able to move up from 22 to 15 and what we might be able to deal to make that happen.

We currently have these for draft picks in 2016:
Two first rounders at 6th OA and 22nd OA Pre-lottery, one 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th.

If we add our 36th OA from the 2nd round we don't draft again until the 4th round. At our stage of development I believe we have a lot of quantity and need the quality. So, I'd probably be all for the 22nd OA + 36th OA to move up to 15th if a guy like Fabbro was available. We could also potentially trade any one of our middling prospects or a depth forward like Burmistrov if it'd get the job done.

 

[Whileee]

My own view(at this time) is that Jost would be at the top of any such comparison list. In doing so, I have tried to keep his terrific performance at the U18`s in context - showing only that he is more than capable of playing/even excelling with all his peers, irrespective of league. When you then look at his actual stats at Penticton for a larger sample size, you have to be impressed by this kid.

I really like Jost, and could see him as a good TNSE selection. He seems to ooze character and leadership, along with a very high end skill set.

If the Jets are in the #6-8 range and the top 5 go as expected (Matthews, Laine, Pulju, Tkachuk, PLD), then I think the Jets' selection will revolve around the following 6 (3 forwards, 3 D).

Chychrun - The big question is whether the Jets' scouts love him or not. If they are in the "love him" camp, he seems the logical pick. Scouts seem to either love him, or are lukewarm. Is he the next Trouba, or do they worry he's the next Bogo?

Juolevi / Sergachyev - If the Jets are really sold on one of these two, then I could see them going for it, unless they like a forward better.

Nylander / Jost / Brown - These three forwards might appeal to the Jets for different reasons. Nylander has a top-drawer skillset, and when he fills out he could be a dynamic top-6 winger. Is he Filip Forsberg, or is he too inconsistent to be a big-time scorer? As mentioned above, Jost might just be a new Bryan Little with a strong leadership character. Seems like a TNSE type. Brown might be the Scheifele type of "reach". If they see him as being able to enhance some areas, particularly skating / quickness, maybe they think he could be a real "home run" type of player.

If I were to take a wild guess, if the Jets have #6-8 (and neither Tkachuk or PLD drop to their pick), they'll go for either Chychrun or Jost. Chychrun if they are in the "pro" camp, and Jost if they don't like Chychrun.

Wildcard? Keller. Maybe if the Jets didn't already have Ehlers, Connor and Petan...

 

[Huffer]

I really like Jost, and could see him as a good TNSE selection. He seems to ooze character and leadership, along with a very high end skill set.

If the Jets are in the #6-8 range and the top 5 go as expected (Matthews, Laine, Pulju, Tkachuk, PLD), then I think the Jets' selection will revolve around the following 6 (3 forwards, 3 D).

Chychrun - The big question is whether the Jets' scouts love him or not. If they are in the "love him" camp, he seems the logical pick. Scouts seem to either love him, or are lukewarm. Is he the next Trouba, or do they worry he's the next Bogo?

Juolevi / Sergachyev - If the Jets are really sold on one of these two, then I could see them going for it, unless they like a forward better.

Nylander / Jost / Brown - These three forwards might appeal to the Jets for different reasons. Nylander has a top-drawer skillset, and when he fills out he could be a dynamic top-6 winger. Is he Filip Forsberg, or is he too inconsistent to be a big-time scorer? As mentioned above, Jost might just be a new Bryan Little with a strong leadership character. Seems like a TNSE type. Brown might be the Scheifele type of "reach". If they see him as being able to enhance some areas, particularly skating / quickness, maybe they think he could be a real "home run" type of player.

If I were to take a wild guess, if the Jets have #6-8 (and neither Tkachuk or PLD drop to their pick), they'll go for either Chychrun or Jost. Chychrun if they are in the "pro" camp, and Jost if they don't like Chychrun.

Wildcard? Keller. Maybe if the Jets didn't already have Ehlers, Connor and Petan...

Great post Whileee, I think this is exactly the situation as well.

 

[Whileee]

#22

Analyzing options for #22 is more complicated. What I've done is "fixed" the top-15 (based on McKenzie's rankings), and listed a group of players ranked below that, any of which might be in range at #22. I've put a very uneducated opinion next to each of them. Would be keen to see what others think....

Top 15 (TSN): Matthews, Laine, Pulju, Tkachuk, PLD, Nylander, Juolevi, Sergachev, Chychrun, Keller, Jost, Bean, Brown, McAvoy, McLeod.

Target Group (no specific order): Yes (Y), No (N), Maybe (M)

Fabbro - Y
Jones - M
Bellows - Y
Kunin - Y
Tufte - Y
Stanley - M
Rubtsov - Y
Asplund - M
Dahlen - M
Thompson - M
Gauthier - Y
Benson - M
Abramov - N
Girard - M
Steel - N
Clague - M
Dineen - M
Laberge - N
Hajek - M
Bastian - N
DeBrincat - N
Krys - N
Grundstrom - M

There are a lot of interesting players in this list, but I've only listed 6 as "Y".

What do you think about this list? Feel free to add other prospects that you think should be in the list.

 

[ecolad]

I really like Jost, and could see him as a good TNSE selection. He seems to ooze character and leadership, along with a very high end skill set.

If the Jets are in the #6-8 range and the top 5 go as expected (Matthews, Laine, Pulju, Tkachuk, PLD), then I think the Jets' selection will revolve around the following 6 (3 forwards, 3 D).

Chychrun - The big question is whether the Jets' scouts love him or not. If they are in the "love him" camp, he seems the logical pick. Scouts seem to either love him, or are lukewarm. Is he the next Trouba, or do they worry he's the next Bogo?

Juolevi / Sergachyev - If the Jets are really sold on one of these two, then I could see them going for it, unless they like a forward better.

Nylander / Jost / Brown - These three forwards might appeal to the Jets for different reasons. Nylander has a top-drawer skillset, and when he fills out he could be a dynamic top-6 winger. Is he Filip Forsberg, or is he too inconsistent to be a big-time scorer? As mentioned above, Jost might just be a new Bryan Little with a strong leadership character. Seems like a TNSE type. Brown might be the Scheifele type of "reach". If they see him as being able to enhance some areas, particularly skating / quickness, maybe they think he could be a real "home run" type of player.

If I were to take a wild guess, if the Jets have #6-8 (and neither Tkachuk or PLD drop to their pick), they'll go for either Chychrun or Jost. Chychrun if they are in the "pro" camp, and Jost if they don't like Chychrun.

Wildcard? Keller. Maybe if the Jets didn't already have Ehlers, Connor and Petan...

Exact same thinking I went through Whileee. Difficult thing for me was deciding whether or not a player (any player) who has all the tools but no tool box while in Junior Hockey can, with appropriate effort and coaching, improve his hockey sense enough through development to become a major impact player or franchise player in the NHL? After considerable thought, I concluded that a player at this level for sure had to have things come naturally to him and that it was not something to be learned, irrespective of development time.

So I concluded that Chychrun was not the best pick for the Jets BUT I emphasize, just my opinion.

 

[CaptainChef]

I really like Jost, and could see him as a good TNSE selection. He seems to ooze character and leadership, along with a very high end skill set.

If the Jets are in the #6-8 range and the top 5 go as expected (Matthews, Laine, Pulju, Tkachuk, PLD), then I think the Jets' selection will revolve around the following 6 (3 forwards, 3 D).

Chychrun - The big question is whether the Jets' scouts love him or not. If they are in the "love him" camp, he seems the logical pick. Scouts seem to either love him, or are lukewarm. Is he the next Trouba, or do they worry he's the next Bogo?

Juolevi / Sergachyev - If the Jets are really sold on one of these two, then I could see them going for it, unless they like a forward better.

Nylander / Jost / Brown - These three forwards might appeal to the Jets for different reasons. Nylander has a top-drawer skillset, and when he fills out he could be a dynamic top-6 winger. Is he Filip Forsberg, or is he too inconsistent to be a big-time scorer? As mentioned above, Jost might just be a new Bryan Little with a strong leadership character. Seems like a TNSE type. Brown might be the Scheifele type of "reach". If they see him as being able to enhance some areas, particularly skating / quickness, maybe they think he could be a real "home run" type of player.

If I were to take a wild guess, if the Jets have #6-8 (and neither Tkachuk or PLD drop to their pick), they'll go for either Chychrun or Jost. Chychrun if they are in the "pro" camp, and Jost if they don't like Chychrun.

Wildcard? Keller. Maybe if the Jets didn't already have Ehlers, Connor and Petan...

100%. Right now any of the LHD seem to be high risk-high reward candidates. I'm still thinking it will be Jost (or Brown)

 

[Coach G]

When is the NHL's fixed predetermined computer generated 2016 draft lottery that delivers the Leaf's the number one, the Coyotes number two and Columbus number three?

In the absence of any sarcasm-indicating face-things, I'm going to take your post a face value. I love a good conspiracy theory as much as anybody, but really, now. Seriously.
All the evidence I need that the draft is NOT rigged is the Edmonton Oilers. Can you (or anyone else) seriously propose that the NHL WANTED the Oilers to keep winning it? C'mon.